Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Human Reliability Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Development of a Numerical Model of Hypervelocity Impact into a Pressurized Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As the outlook for space exploration becomes more ambitious and spacecraft travel deeper into space than ever before, it is increasingly important that propulsion systems perform reliably within the space environment. The increased reliability compels designers to increase design margin at the expense of system mass, which contrasts with the need to limit vehicle mass to maximize payload. Such are the factors that motivate the integration of high specific strength composite materials in the construction of pressure vessels commonly referred to as composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV). The COPV consists of a metallic liner for the inner shell of the COPV that is stiff, negates fluid permeation and serves as the anchor for composite laminates or filaments, but the liner itself cannot contain the stresses from the pressurant it contains. The compo-site-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is wound around the liner using a combination of hoop (circumferential) and helical orientations. Careful consideration of wrap orientation allows the composite to evenly bear structural loading and creates the COPV's characteristic high strength to weight ratio. As the CFRP overwrap carries most of the stresses induced by pressurization, damage to the overwrap can affect mission duration, mission success and potentially cause loss-of-vehicle/loss-of-crew. For this reason, it is critical to establish a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in the failure of a stressed composite such as that of the COPV. One of the greatest external threats to the integrity of a spacecraft's COPV is an impact from the meteoroid and orbital debris environments (MMOD). These impacts, even from submillimeter particles, generate extremely high stress states in the CFRP that can damage numerous fibers. As a result of this possibility, initial assumptions in survivability analysis for some human-rated NASA space-craft have assumed that any alteration of the vessel due to impact is considered a catastrophic failure. This assumption is conservative and made due to lack of knowledge on the level of allow-able damage to the composite overwrap that can be sustained and still allow successful completion of the mission. To quantify the allowable damage level to the composite overwrap involves assessing stress redistribution following damage as well as evaluating possible time-dependent mechanisms involved in the COPV response to an impact event. Limited published work in this subject has shown that COPV can withstand at least some level of damage due to high energy impacts. These observations have been confirmed and expanded upon in recent experimental research performed by NASA. This research has demonstrated that there is not only robustness in a COPV to compensate for CFRP damage, but has also identified two significant failure modes for pressurized COPV. The lowest threshold failure mode involves the perforation of the vessel, and the highest threshold failure mode is the catastrophic rupture. While both of these failure modes mean a loss of the COPV, system robustness affords some tolerance to the venting as opposed to the more catastrophic rupture. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand the conditions that result in the transition between these failure modes. The aforementioned experimental research has been performed in both the unpressurized and pressurized condition to identify the damage level that triggered the failure thresh-old. This COPV test program was sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), and tests were performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). Planning and coordination were provided by NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group, and the COPVs were provided by the ISS Program. Unpressurized testing has been conducted at the pressure of the vacuum test chamber, while, the pressurized testing has been conducted at 290 +/- 10 bar (4,200  100 psi) using nitrogen as the pressurizing gas, which corresponds to the design pressure for the target COPV. In this research, spherical aluminum projectiles with varying diameter has been chosen as the impactor. For the unpressurized COPV, the dependence of penetration up to the dependence of hole size in the liner has been obtained as a function of impact conditions. For the pressurized research, the dependence of penetration up to rupture has been obtained as a function of im-pact conditions. Two representative post-test photographs of the failed COPV's from a nor-mal impact into the COPV surface are shown in Fig. 1. These images display the dramatic difference between failure modes, venting (Fig. 1a) and rupture (Fig. 1b). For venting, liner perforation, severed composite fibers/tows and ply delamination are commonly observed damage characteristics of this COPV failure mode. In the case of rupture, the COPV typically experienced a separation of its domed regions and severe break-up of the cylindrical region. Fully understanding the transition from venting to rupture experimentally is costly and potentially unachievable for conditions that cannot be generated in the laboratory. These shortcomings have motivated the performance of three-dimensional numerical simulations to expand the existing experimental database. These simulations have been carried out with the nonlinear-structural-dynamics, analysis-tool, CTH. A typical pressure contour plot from an impact simulation of an entire COPV is shown in Fig. 2. To generate the COPV stress state without initiating a shock wave, the pressure in the simulated COPV is ramped up to the final pressure over a millisecond prior to impact of the projectile with nitrogen gas. Figure 2a shows the system in this initial condition. After one millisecond, a projectile is initiated into the simulation and impacts the COPV. Figure 2b shows the system after this impact. In the figure, the onset of venting is represented as the change in pressure (μbar), red to green, at the perforation site. Also seen in the figure is the eroded projectile that had passed into the COPV vessel with the generated shock wave in the pressurant propagating just ahead of the material. In this paper, pertinent experimental details and the development of the material constitutive models necessary for this work along with the efforts to validate their use are dis-cussed. The simulation results are presented and compared with the NASA experimental observations. While work is on-going from this effort, early observations pertinent to the failure threshold are presented.

Garcia, M. A.↗

Implementing Software Safety in the NASA Environment

Until recently, NASA did not consider allowing computers total control of flight systems. Human operators, via hardware, have constituted the ultimate safety control. In an attempt to reduce costs, NASA has come to rely more and more heavily on computers and software to control space missions. (For example. software is now planned to control most of the operational functions of the International Space Station.) Thus the need for systematic software safety programs has become crucial for mission success. Concurrent engineering principles dictate that safety should be designed into software up front, not tested into the software after the fact. 'Cost of Quality' studies have statistics and metrics to prove the value of building quality and safety into the development cycle. Unfortunately, most software engineers are not familiar with designing for safety, and most safety engineers are not software experts. Software written to specifications which have not been safety analyzed is a major source of computer related accidents. Safer software is achieved step by step throughout the system and software life cycle. It is a process that includes requirements definition, hazard analyses, formal software inspections, safety analyses, testing, and maintenance. The greatest emphasis is placed on clearly and completely defining system and software requirements, including safety and reliability requirements. Unfortunately, development and review of requirements are the weakest link in the process. While some of the more academic methods, e.g. mathematical models, may help bring about safer software, this paper proposes the use of currently approved software methodologies, and sound software and assurance practices to show how, to a large degree, safety can be designed into software from the start. NASA's approach today is to first conduct a preliminary system hazard analysis (PHA) during the concept and planning phase of a project. This determines the overall hazard potential of the system to be built. Shortly thereafter, as the system requirements are being defined, the second iteration of hazard analyses takes place, the systems hazard analysis (SHA). During the systems requirements phase, decisions are made as to what functions of the system will be the responsibility of software. This is the most critical time to affect the safety of the software. From this point, software safety analyses as well as software engineering practices are the main focus for assuring safe software. While many of the steps proposed in this paper seem like just sound engineering practices, they are the best technical and most cost effective means to assure safe software within a safe system.

Wetherholt, Martha S.↗

ESAS-Derived Earth Departure Stage Design for Human Mars Exploration

The Vision for Space Exploration has set the nation on a course to have humans on Mars as early as 2030. To reduce the cost and risk associated with human Mars exploration, NASA is planning for the Mars architecture to leverage the lunar architecture as fully as possible. This study takes the defined launch vehicles and system capabilities from ESAS and extends their application to DRM 3.0 to design an Earth Departure Stage suitable for the cargo and crew missions to Mars. The impact of a propellant depot in LEO was assessed and sLzed for use with the EDS. To quantitatively assess and compare the effectiveness of alternative designs, an initial baseline architecture was defined using the ESAS launch vehicles and DRM 3.0. The baseline architecture uses three NTR engines, LH2 propellant, no propellant depot in LEO, and launches on the Ares I and Ares V. The Mars transfer and surface elements from DRM 3.0 were considered to be fixed payloads in the design of the EDS. Feasible architecture alternatives were identified from previous architecture studies and anticipated capabilities and compiled in a morphological matrix. ESAS FOMs were used to determine the most critical design attributes for the effectiveness of the EDS. The ESAS-derived FOMs used in this study to assess alternative designs are effectiveness and performance, affordability, reliability, and risk. The individual FOMs were prioritized using the AHP, a method for pairwise comparison. All trades performed were evaluated with respect to the weighted FOMs, creating a Pareto frontier of equivalently ideal solutions. Additionally, each design on the frontier was evaluated based on its fulfillment of the weighted FOMs using TOPSIS, a quantitative method for ordinal ranking of the alternatives. The designs were assessed in an integrated environment using physics-based models for subsystem analysis where possible. However, for certain attributes such as engine type, historical, performance-based mass estimating relations were more easily employed. The elements from the design process were integrated into a single loop, allowing for rapid iteration of subsystem analyses and compilation of resulting designs.

Flaherty, Kevin↗

MSL Telecom Automated Anomaly Detection

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Telecom Operations Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has implemented a machine learning system in order to automate the anomaly detection process as a part of daily operations. Machine learning enables reliable detection of anomalies in Telecom-related telemetry and automated reporting of Telecom subsystem status, resulting in an 90% reduction in team workload and improved anomaly detection reliability. At present, machine learning methods are used to detect: 1. Anomalous long-term trends in telemetry data 2. Anomalous time-domain evolution of telemetry values Both types of anomalies pose their own unique challenges that are addressed in different ways. In the first case, long term trending of daily minima, maximum, and mean telemetry values in temperatures, currents, voltages, and radio frequency (RF) power levels is used in addition to hard threshold safety checks to look for changes in long-term equipment health and performance. Long-term trending methods allow for ordinary seasonal variations in these quantities caused by temperature changes over the course of the Martian year while allowing operators to determine whether current performance remains in line with historical values from previous years. Changes in long-term trends can provide important insights into the health and status of the rover's on-board systems as well as valuable early warning if subtle degradation begins to take hold. But while trending of daily statistics is valuable, it does not detect anomalies in the short-term time evolution of data over the course of minutes or hours during a day, and this task is handled with short-term shape analysis. Principal components analysis (PCA) has been found to provide robust detection of short-term anomalies, and several examples of the use of PCA to detect actual anomalous events will be provided here. In using PCA, we use both the percentage of explained variance and also a log likelihood test on the PCA expansion coefficients to flag telemetry data for human review. Previous work in the field of spacecraft anomaly detection includes [1] for MSL and [2] for some other JPL missions.

Mukai, Ryan↗

Chromosome aberrations induced by high-LET radiations

Measurements of chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes are currently the most sensitive and reliable indicator of radiation exposure that can be used for biological dosimetry. This technique has been implemented recently to study radiation exposures incurred by astronauts during space flight, where a significant proportion of the dose is delivered by high-LET particle exposure. Traditional methods for the assessing of cytogenetic damage in mitotic cells collected at one time point after exposure may not be suitable for measuring high-LET radiation effects due to the drastic cell cycle perturbations and interphase cell death induced by this type of exposure. In this manuscript we review the recent advances in methodology used to study high-LET induced cytogenetic effects and evaluate the use of chemically-induced Premature Chromosome Condensation (PCC) as an alternative to metaphase analysis. Published data on the cytogenetic effects of in vitro exposures of high-LET radiation is reviewed, along with biodosimetry results from astronauts after short or long space missions.

ISS Project↗

Supporting Crew Autonomy in Deep Space Exploration: Preliminary Onboard Capability Requirements and Proposed Research Questions. Technical Report of the Autonomous Crew Operations Technical Interchange Meeting

Communication delays are a critical challenge posed by long duration deep space exploration. Space missions historically have relied on an ever-present Mission Control Center (MCC) to direct operations in near real-time. As unanticipated anomalies that defeat fault detection and resolution systems do arise, the lack of real-time communication will significantly weaken what the MCC support represents: a reliable safety net for the flight crew through its deep and diverse areas of expertise and investigative resources. As a consequence, future space vehicles and habitats need to be equipped with capabilities to support the flight crew to operate with little or no ground support. Considerations must be given to vehicle and mission designs that will fortify the traditionally ground-centered safety net and forge new support systems, when communication delays exist. In August 2018, NASA’s Human Research Program, through its Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element, convened a Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) on Autonomous Crew Operations at NASA Ames Research Center. The goal of the meeting was to gather input from NASA centers, industry, academia, and branches of the Department of Defense (DoD) to address how intelligent technologies can be applied to augment onboard capabilities to support crew anomaly response. The TIM featured 24 presentations by 29 speakers and hosted a total of 59 attendees, including 43 from 5 NASA centers (Ames, Johnson, Langley, Marshall, and Jet Propulsion Lab) and 4 from the DoD (3 from Army Research Lab and 1 from Naval Postgraduate School), with remaining attendees from academia (e.g., UC Davis, CMU) and industry (e.g., IBM, Siemens). Discussions were centered around three themes: standards and guidelines, lessons learned in analog environments, and technologies. To help provide a framework for discussion, a concept matrix describing anomaly response processes was created prior to the TIM (Figure 1, page 6). The matrix captures the steps involved (monitoring and detection, diagnosis, solution development and evaluation, solution implementation and verification, resolution documentation) as well as the resources and capabilities required to support these steps (data, knowledge, analysis, synthesis, resource management). A wallpaper size printout of the matrix was utilized at the TIM to solicit attendee inputs along the three themes; the activity garnered 108 submissions of ideas. Overall, what emerged from TIM discussions was a picture of mismatch between crew anomaly response needs and support that can be provided by existing intelligent technologies. The needs are broad, spanning multiple steps and processes/resources, with many of which lacking support from existing technologies, such as knowledge management throughout the steps of problem solving (especially in resolution documentation) and manpower management. The solutions provided by existing intelligent technologies are specific to the steps/processes that they are designed to support and constrained to solving only problems similar to those that have occurred before. What is lacking from technologies is typically made up by humans, specifically their complex critical thinking, creative problem solving, and domain expertise. In the end, the TIM highlighted the pressing need to support responses to onboard anomalies during autonomous crew operations, particularly those that have eluded the system tests, inspection, and other assurance processes. Such anomalies can potentially threaten crew and vehicle safety, as well as significantly impact overall operations with additional workload. These fairly rare events are difficult to anticipate and prepare for, given the state-of-the-art in intelligent technologies. This is true even for anomalies that stem from “unknown knowns”—cases in which there is sufficient external information to characterize the problem but the overall pattern fails to be recognized by the problem solver, or in which the internal knowledge needed to solve a problem is held tacitly and potentially accessible by the problem solver but not articulated. It follows that the ability to tackle anomalies lies not only with the availability of relevant information and knowledge but also their accessibility in times of need. To that end, we propose research questions along the following three broad themes: • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information available? • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information accessible? • How intelligent technologies can help support the crew operating as a team in anomaly response processes?

autonomous crew operations↗

Microelectronic DNA assay for the detection of BRCA1 gene mutations

Mutations in BRCA1 are characterized by predisposition to breast cancer, ovarian cancer and prostate cancer as well as colon cancer. Prognosis for this cancer survival depends upon the stage at which cancer is diagnosed. Reliable and rapid mutation detection is crucial for the early diagnosis and treatment. We developed an electronic assay for the detection of a representative single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), deletion and insertion in BRCA1 gene by the microelectronics microarray instrumentation. The assay is rapid, and it takes 30 minutes for the immobilization of target DNA samples, hybridization, washing and readout. The assay is multiplexing since it is carried out at the same temperature and buffer conditions for each step. The assay is also highly specific, as the signal-to-noise ratio is much larger than recommended value (72.86 to 321.05 vs. 5) for homozygotes genotyping, and signal ratio close to the perfect value 1 for heterozygotes genotyping (1.04).

Validation Studies↗

Detection of Operator Performance Breakdown as an Automation Triggering Mechanism

Performance breakdown (PB) has been anecdotally described as a state where the human operator "loses control of context" and "cannot maintain required task performance." Preventing such a decline in performance is critical to assure the safety and reliability of human-integrated systems, and therefore PB could be useful as a point at which automation can be applied to support human performance. However, PB has never been scientifically defined or empirically demonstrated. Moreover, there is no validated objective way of detecting such a state or the transition to that state. The purpose of this work is: 1) to empirically demonstrate a PB state, and 2) to develop an objective way of detecting such a state. This paper defines PB and proposes an objective method for its detection. A human-in-the-loop study was conducted: 1) to demonstrate PB by increasing workload until the subject reported being in a state of PB, and 2) to identify possible parameters of a detection method for objectively identifying the subjectively-reported PB point, and 3) to determine if the parameters are idiosyncratic to an individual/context or are more generally applicable. In the experiment, fifteen participants were asked to manage three concurrent tasks (one primary and two secondary) for 18 minutes. The difficulty of the primary task was manipulated over time to induce PB while the difficulty of the secondary tasks remained static. The participants' task performance data was collected. Three hypotheses were constructed: 1) increasing workload will induce subjectively-identified PB, 2) there exists criteria that identifies the threshold parameters that best matches the subjectively-identified PB point, and 3) the criteria for choosing the threshold parameters is consistent across individuals. The results show that increasing workload can induce subjectively-identified PB, although it might not be generalizable-only 12 out of 15 participants declared PB. The PB detection method based on signal detection analysis was applied to the performance data and the results showed that PB can be identified using the method, particularly when the values of the parameters for the detection method were calibrated individually.

multi-task environment↗

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗

Recent Advancements in Modeling and Simulation of Entry Systems at NASA

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems in support of NASA’s exploration missions. Mission-tailored research and development in modeling of entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within the Orion and Mars 2020 Programs), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the broad, cross-mission research conducted by NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency’s only concerted effort toward advancing entry systems across a range of technical disciplines. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Predictive material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. Investments in thermal protection material modeling are geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of handling complex structures, with an eye toward optimizing design performance and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools have been developed to characterize material properties and behavior at the microstructural level, and experimental techniques (molecular beam scattering, micro-computed tomography, among others) have been developed to measure material kinetics, morphology, and other parameters needed to inform and validate detailed simulations. Advancements have also been made in macrostructural simulation capability to enable 3-D system-scale calculations of material response with complex topological features, including differential recession of tile gaps. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. Capacity and capability of the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) have been expanded in recent years and analysis of resulting data has led to several improvements in kinetic models, while simultaneously reducing uncertainties associated with radiative heat transfer predictions. First-principles calculations of fundamental kinetic, thermodynamic, and transport data, along with state-specificmodels for non-equilibrium flow regimes, have also yielded new insights and have the potential to vastly improve model fidelity. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate entry environments at Mars during dust storms; Studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled and woven thermal protection systems; and Advanced numerical methods to optimize computational analyses for desired accuracy versus cost. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent. With precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals, recent efforts have yielded 6-DOF models of multi-axis control with propulsive descent of both inflatable and rigid ellipsled-like architectures. Results for both configurations have demonstrated the ability to land within the 50-meter precision requirement demanded by Mars human exploration missions, while also reducing propellant requirements by enabling more efficient control through entry and descent. Ongoing research in GN&C is developing mechanical specifications for the systems and establishing engineering feasibility.

aerothermodynamics↗

Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) Avionics and Software Integration Overview

On January 14, 2004, the President of the United States announced a new plan to explore space and extend a human presence across our solar system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) to develop and field a Constellation Architecture that will bring the Space Exploration vision to fruition. The Constellation Architecture includes a human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) segment, managed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), comprised of the First Stage (FS), Upper Stage (US), and Upper Stage Engine (USE) elements. The CLV s purpose is to provide safe and reliable crew and cargo transportation into Low Earth Orbit (LEO), as well as insertion into trans-lunar trajectories. The architecture's Spacecraft segment includes, among other elements, the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), managed by the Johnson Space Flight Center (JSC), which is launched atop the CLV. MSFC is also responsible for CLV and CEV stack integration. This paper provides an overview of the Avionics and Software integration approach (which includes the Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) functions), both within the CLV, and across the CEV interface; it addresses the requirements to be met, logistics of meeting those requirements, and the roles of the various groups. The Avionics Integration and Vehicle Systems Test (ANST) Office was established at the MSFC with system engineering responsibilities for defining and developing the integrated CLV Avionics and Software system. The AIVST Office has defined two Groups, the Avionics and Software Integration Group (AVSIG), and the Integrated System Simulation and Test Integration Group (ISSTIG), and four Panels which will direct trade studies and analyses to ensure the CLV avionics and software meet CLV system and CEV interface requirements. The four panels are: 1) Avionics Integration Panel (AIP), 2) Software Integration Panel, 3) EEE Panel, and 4) Systems Simulation and Test Panel. Membership on the groups and panels includes the MSFC representatives from the requisite engineering disciplines, the First Stage, the Upper Stage, the Upper Stage Engine projects, and key personnel from other NASA centers. The four panels will take the results of trade studies and analyses and develop documentation in support of Design Analysis Cycle Reviews and ultimately the System Requirements Review.

Monell, Donald W.↗

Recent Advancements in Modeling and Simulation of Entry Systems at NASA

This paper describes recent development of modeling and simulation technologies for entry systems in support of NASA's exploration missions. Mission-tailored research and development in modeling of entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within the Orion and Mars 2020 Programs), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the broad, cross-mission research conducted by NASA's Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency's only concerted effort toward advancing entry systems across a range of technical disciplines. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Predictive material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Computational and experimental aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. Investments in thermal protection material modeling are geared toward high-fidelity, predictive models capable of handling complex structures, with an eye toward optimizing design performance and quantifying thermal protection system reliability. New computational tools have been developed to characterize material properties and behavior at the microstructural level, and experimental techniques (molecular beam scattering, micro-computed tomography, among others) have been developed to measure material kinetics, morphology, and other parameters needed to inform and validate detailed simulations. Advancements have also been made in macrostructural simulation capability to enable 3-D system-scale calculations of material response with complex topological features, including differential recession of tile gaps. Research and development in the area of shock layer kinetics has focused on air and CO2-based atmospheres. Capacity and capability of the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) have been expanded in recent years and analysis of resulting data has led to several improvements in kinetic models, while simultaneously reducing uncertainties associated with radiative heat transfer predictions. First-principles calculations of fundamental kinetic, thermodynamic, and transport data, along with state-specific models for non-equilibrium flow regimes, have also yielded new insights and have the potential to vastly improve model fidelity. Aerosciences is a very broad area of interest in entry systems, yet a number of important challenges are being addressed: Coupled fluid-structure simulations of parachute inflation and dynamics; Experimental and computational studies of vehicle dynamics; Multi-phase flow with dust particles to simulate entry environments at Mars during dust storms; Studies of roughness-induced heating augmentation relevant to tiled and woven thermal protection systems; and Advanced numerical methods to optimize computational analyses for desired accuracy versus cost. Guidance and control in the context of entry systems has focused on development of methods for multi-axis control (i.e. pitch and yaw, rather than bank angle alone) of spacecraft during entry and descent. With precision landing requirements driven by Mars human exploration goals, recent efforts have yielded 6-DOF models of multi-axis control with propulsive descent of both inflatable and rigid ellipsled-like architectures.

Barnhardt, Michael D.↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Techniques for Assessment of Postural and Locomotor Ataxia, Spatial Orientation, and Gaze Stability

In addition to adapting to microgravity, major neurovestibular problems of space flight include postflight difficulties with standing, walking, turning corners, and other activities that require stable upright posture and gaze stability. These difficulties inhibit astronauts' ability to stand or escape from their vehicle during emergencies. The long-ter7n goal of the NSBRI is the development of countermeasures to ameliorate the effects of long duration space flight. These countermeasures must be tested with valid and reliable tools. This project aims to develop quantitative, parametric approaches for assessing gaze stability and spatial orientation during normal gait and when gait is perturbed. Two of this year's most important findings concern head fixation distance and ideal trajectory analysis. During a normal cycle of walking the head moves up and down linearly. A simultaneous angular pitching motion of the head keeps it aligned toward an imaginary point in space at a distance of about one meter in front of a subject and along the line of march. This distance is called the head fixation distance. Head fixation distance provides the fundamental framework necessary for understanding the functional significance of the vestibular reflexes that couple head motion to eye motion. This framework facilitates the intelligent design of counter-measures for the effects of exposure to microgravity upon the vestibular ocular reflexes. Ideal trajectory analysis is a simple candidate countermeasure based upon quantifying body sway during repeated up and down stair stepping. It provides one number that estimates the body sway deviation from an ideal sinusoidal body sway trajectory normalized on the subject's height. This concept has been developed with NSBRI funding in less than one year. These findings are explained in more detail below. Compared to assessments of the vestibuo-ocular reflex, analysis of vestibular effects on locomotor function is relatively less well developed and quantified. We are improving this situation by applying methodologies such as nonlinear orbital stability to quantify responses and by using multivariate statistical approaches to link together the responses across separate tests. In this way we can exploit the information available and increase the ability to discriminate between normal and pathological responses. Measures of stability and orientation are compared to measures such as dynamic visual acuity and with balance function tests. The responses of normal human subjects and of patients having well documented pathophysiologies are being characterized. When these studies are completed, we should have a clearer idea about normal and abnormal patterns of eye, head, and body movements during locomotion and their stability in a wide range of environments. We plan eventually to use this information to validate the efficacy of candidate neurovestibular and neuromuscular rehabilitative techniques. Some representative studies made during this year are summarized.

Wall, Conrad., III↗

Analysis of Retinal Vascular Branching in Human Subjects Undergoing 70-Day Head-Down Tilt by NASAs VESGEN Software

Significant risks for visual impairment were discovered recently in astronauts following spaceflight, especially after long-duration missions. We hypothesize that microgravity-induced fluid shifts result in pathological changes within the retinal vasculature that precede visual and other ocular impairments. We therefore are analyzing retinal vessels in healthy subjects before and after head-down tilt (HDT), a ground-based microgravity analog with NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software. Methods. Spectralis® infrared (IR) fundus images were collected from both eyes of 6 subjects before and after 70 days of bed rest at 6 degree HDT (NASA Campaign 11). For our retrospective study, branching patterns in arterial and venous trees are mapped by VESGEN into vessel branching generations (Gx) that are quantified by parameters such as densities of vessel length (Lv), area (Av), number (Nv) and fractal dimension (Df) as described previously for diabetic retinopathy (IOVS 51(1):498). Results are further assigned by VESGEN into groups of large (G1-3), medium (G4-6) and small (G≥7) vessels. Results. All subjects remained asymptomatic throughout duration of HDT. To date, we have analyzed one IR image from each of the 12 eyes. Interestingly, two groups of the masked study population identified by VESGEN are distinguished by the presence or absence of small veins (G≥7). For example, L≥7 and Av≥7 are 2.7+/-1.3 E-4 px/px2 and 7.2+/-3.6 E-4 px2/px2 in 6 retinas, but 0 in the other 6 retinas. Nonetheless, the space-filling properties of the entire venous trees were remarkably uniform by all parameters, such as Df = 1.56+/-0.02 for 6 retinas with G≥7 and 1.55+/-0.02 for retinas without G≥7. No small arteries (G≥7) were detected. Conclusions. For our preliminary masked analysis, two groups of venous trees with and without small veins (G≥7) were clearly revealed by VESGEN. Upon completing all images and unmasking the subject status of before and after HDT, we will determine whether differences in the presence or absence of small veins are important correlates, and perhaps reliable predictors, of other ocular and physiological adaptations to prolonged head-down tilt and microgravity. Clinical methods for examining adaptive microvascular remodeling in the retina to microgravity space flight are not currently established.

Fractal↗

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Carbon Dioxide Reduction Technology Trade Study

For long-term human missions, a closed-loop atmosphere revitalization system (ARS) is essential to minimize consumables. A carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technology is used to reclaim oxygen (O2) from metabolic CO2 and is vital to reduce the delivery mass of metabolic O2. A key step in closing the loop for ARS will include a proper CO2 reduction subsystem that is reliable and with low equivalent system mass (ESM). Sabatier and Bosch CO2 reduction are two traditional CO2 reduction subsystems (CRS). Although a Sabatier CRS has been delivered to International Space Station (ISS) and is an important step toward closing the ISS ARS loop, it recovers only 50% of the available O2 in CO2. A Bosch CRS is able to reclaim all O2 in CO2. However, due to continuous carbon deposition on the catalyst surface, the penalties of replacing spent catalysts and reactors and crew time in a Bosch CRS are significant. Recently, technologies have been developed for recovering hydrogen (H2) from Sabatier-product methane (CH4). These include methane pyrolysis using a microwave plasma, catalytic thermal pyrolysis of CH4 and thermal pyrolysis of CH4. Further, development in Sabatier reactor designs based on microchannel and microlith technology could open up opportunities in reducing system mass and enhancing system control. Improvements in Bosch CRS conversion have also been reported. In addition, co-electrolysis of steam and CO2 is a new technology that integrates oxygen generation and CO2 reduction functions in a single system. A co-electrolysis unit followed by either a Sabatier or a carbon formation reactor based on Bosch chemistry could improve the overall competitiveness of an integrated O2 generation and CO2 reduction subsystem. This study evaluates all these CO2 reduction technologies, conducts water mass balances for required external supply of water for 1-, 5- and 10-yr missions, evaluates mass, volume, power, cooling and resupply requirements of various technologies. A system analysis and comparison among the technologies was made based on ESM, technology readiness level and reliability. Those technologies with potential were recommended for development.

Jeng, Frank F.↗

Reusable Solid Rocket Motor - Accomplishments, Lessons, and a Culture of Success

The Reusable Solid Rocket Motor represents the largest solid rocket motor ever flown and the only human rated solid motor. Each Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) provides approximately 3-million lb of thrust to lift the integrated Space Shuttle vehicle from the launch pad. The motors burn out approximately 2 minutes later, separate from the vehicle and are recovered and refurbished. The size of the motor and the need for high reliability were challenges. Thrust shaping, via shaping of the propellant grain, was needed to limit structural loads during ascent. The motor design evolved through several block upgrades to increase performance and to increase safety and reliability. A major redesign occurred after STS-51L with the Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor. Significant improvements in the joint sealing systems were added. Design improvements continued throughout the Program via block changes with a number of innovations including development of low temperature o-ring materials and incorporation of a unique carbon fiber rope thermal barrier material. Recovery of the motors and post flight inspection improved understanding of hardware performance, and led to key design improvements. Because of the multidecade program duration material obsolescence was addressed, and requalification of materials and vendors was sometimes needed. Thermal protection systems and ablatives were used to protect the motor cases and nozzle structures. Significant understanding of design and manufacturing features of the ablatives was developed during the program resulting in optimization of design features and processing parameters. The project advanced technology in eliminating ozone-depleting materials in manufacturing processes and the development of an asbestos-free case insulation. Manufacturing processes for the large motor components were unique and safety in the manufacturing environment was a special concern. Transportation and handling approaches were also needed for the large hardware segments. The reusable solid rocket motor achieved significant reliability via process control, ground test programs, and postflight assessment. Process control is mandatory for a solid rocket motor as an acceptance test of the delivered product is not feasible. Process control included process failure modes and effects analysis, statistical process control, witness panels, and process product integrity audits. Material controls and inspections were maintained throughout the sub tier vendors. Material fingerprinting was employed to assess any drift in delivered material properties. The RSRM maintained both full scale and sub-scale test articles. These enabled continuous improvement of design and evaluation of process control and material behavior. Additionally RSRM reliability was achieved through attention to detail in post flight assessment to observe any shift in performance. The postflight analysis and inspections provided invaluable reliability data as it enables observation of actual flight performance, most of which would not be available if the motors were not recovered. These unique challenges, features of the reusable solid rocket motor, materials and manufacturing issues, and design improvements will be discussed in the paper.

Moore, Dennis R.↗