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DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Geothermal Potential of Great Basin Sub-Regions: Preprint

The INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems (INGENIOUS) project aims to discover new, economically viable hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region by building on previous work in play fairway analysis and machine learning. A key objective of this project is to develop an exploration workflow to reduce geothermal exploration risks for hidden geothermal systems. A single preliminary play fairway workflow was developed from the assessment of the regional INGENIOUS geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets. This workflow provided new preliminary predictive geothermal fairway maps for the INGENIOUS study area, which encompasses most of Nevada, western Utah, southern Idaho, southeastern Oregon, and easternmost California. However, a recent study (incorporating machine learning techniques) of a portion of Nevada identified four geologic domains and determined that the relative importance of individual datasets or features as indicators of geothermal potential may differ across these domains. The INGENIOUS study area includes a much larger and more geologically diverse region; therefore, additional geologic domains or sub-regions are expected. To assess the sub-regions in the INGENIOUS study area, principal component analysis and k-means clustering were applied. Preliminary results indicate that the INGENIOUS regional data cluster into groups that relate to different geologic domains in the Great Basin region. These include domains such as the Walker Lane, extensional western Great Basin region, broad lower strain region in the eastern Great Basin of western Utah and eastern Nevada, Quaternary volcanic fields, and the area adjacent to the Snake River Plain. These clusters are assessed to determine the key geologic drivers of the identified clusters. Understanding this variability can provide key insights for the exploration and characterization of hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin region and could indicate the need to develop multiple geothermal conceptual models and play fairway workflows for the INGENIOUS study area.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Geothermal Potential of Great Basin Sub-Regions

exploration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the temperature and $E$-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background from the full 500-square-degree SPTpol dataset

Using the full four-year SPTpol 500 deg 2 dataset in both the 95 and 150 GHz frequency bands, we present measurements of the temperature and E-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), as well as the E-mode polarization autopower spectrum (EE) and temperature-E-mode cross-power spectrum (TE) in the angular multipole range 50 < ℓ < 8000. We find the SPTpol dataset to be self-consistent, passing several internal consistency tests based on maps, frequency bands, bandpowers, and cosmological parameters. The full SPTpol dataset is well-fit by the ΛCDM model, for which we find H 0 = 70.48 ± 2.16 km s -1 Mpc -1 and Ω m = 0.271 ± 0.026, when using only the SPTpol data and a Planck-based prior on the optical depth to reionization. The ΛCDM parameter constraints are consistent across the 95 GHz-only, 150 GHz-only, TE-only, and EE-only data splits. Between the ℓ < 1000 and ℓ > 1000 data splits, the ΛCDM parameter constraints are borderline consistent at the ∼2σ level. This consistency improves when including a parameter A L , the degree of lensing of the CMB inferred from the smearing of acoustic peaks. When marginalized over A L , the ΛCDM parameter constraints from SPTpol are consistent with those from Planck. In conclusion, the power spectra presented here are the most sensitive measurements of the lensed CMB damping tail to date for roughly ℓ > 1700 in TE and ℓ > 2000 in EE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Realizing tunable Fermi level in SnTe by defect control

The tuning of the Fermi level in tin telluride, a topological crystalline insulator, is essential for accessing its unique surface states and optimizing its electronic properties for applications such as spintronics and quantum computing. In this study, we demonstrate that the Fermi level in tin telluride can be effectively modulated by controlling the tin concentration during chemical vapor deposition synthesis. By introducing tin-rich conditions, we observed a blue shift in the x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy core-level peaks of both tin and tellurium, indicating an upward shift in the Fermi level. Further, this shift is corroborated by a decrease in work function values measured via ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy, confirming the suppression of Sn vacancies. Our findings provide a low-cost, scalable method to achieve tunable Fermi levels in tin telluride, offering a significant advancement in the development of materials with tailored electronic properties for next-generation technological applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Isolation of genome-predicted Caldatribacterium ( Atribacterota ) reveals pervasive microbial cultivation problem due to folate precipitation

Most bacterial phyla have few or no pure cultures, including Atribacterota , comprised of ubiquitous anaerobes. Here, we report genome-guided enrichment and isolation of two Atribacterota species representing a new family, Caldatribacterium saccharofermentans from a hot spring, and Caldatribacterium inferamans from a deep aquifer. Both were co-enriched with sulfate-reducing bacteria and initially resisted isolation, which we link to inadvertent removal of precipitated folic acid by filter-sterilization of unbuffered Wolin’s vitamin solution. We then predict folate auxotrophy across the Atribacterota and ~29% of all bacteria, with extensive auxotrophy in 27% of phyla. Since ≥604 of 791 ( ≥ 76%) media with folic acid additions in the MediaDive database use unbuffered vitamin solutions in which folic acid is likely removed during filter-sterilization, we propose that folate auxotrophy limits culturability in defined media en masse. We also uncover unusual features of Caldatribacterium , including three lipid membrane-like layers (LMLs), with the inner LML surrounding the nucleoid, and a high percentage of secreted proteins, supporting a unique cell biology of Atribacterota .

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recurrent pattern of extreme fire weather in California

Abstract Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Range wide genetic differentiation in the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana with a seascape genetic focus on the Salish Sea

Introduction: In temperate regions, one of the most critical determinants of present range-wide genetic diversity was the Pleistocene climate oscillations, the most recent one created by the last glacial maximum (LGM). This study aimed to describe N. luetkeana genetic structure across its entire range (Alaska to California) and test different models of population connectivity within the Salish Sea. This region was colonized after the LGM and has been under increased disturbance in recent decades. Methods: We utilized microsatellite markers to study N. luetkeana genetic diversity at 53 sites across its range. Using higher sampling density in the Salish Sea, we employed a seascape genetics approach and tested isolation by hydrodynamic transport and environment models. Results: At the species distribution scale, we found four main groups of genetic co-ancestry, Alaska; Washington with Vancouver Island’s outer coast and Juan de Fuca Strait; Washington’s inner Salish Sea; and Oregon with California. The highest allelic richness (AR) levels were found in California, near the trailing range edge, although AR was also high in Alaska. The inner Salish Sea region had the poorest diversity across the species distribution. Nevertheless, a pattern of isolation by hydrodynamic transport and environment was supported in this region. Discussion: The levels of allelic, private allele richness and genetic differentiation suggest that during the LGM, bull kelp had both northern and southern glacial refugia in the Prince of Wales Island-Haida Gwaii region and Central California, respectively. Genetic diversity in Northern California sites seems resilient to recent disturbances, whereas the low levels of genetic diversity in the inner Salish Sea are concerning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updated cosmological constraints on axion dark energy with DESI

Here, we present updated constraints on the parameters of an axion dark energy model, for which we took into account the properties of its characteristic potential and its full cosmological evolution. We show that the values of the axion parameters appear sufficiently constrained by the data, including the latest DESI DR1, and are consistent with the theoretical expectations of a field mass 𝑚 𝑎 in the ultralight regime log⁡(𝑚 𝑎 ⁢𝑐 2 /eV) ≃ −32.60 ±0.12, and an effective energy scale 𝑓 𝑎 close to the reduced Planck energy log⁡(𝑓 𝑎 ⁡/𝑀 Pl ) ≃ −0.28 ± 0.19. Our results also support the idea of dynamical dark energy, although Bayesian evidence still favors the phenomenological dark energy model 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 over the axion dark energy, with the Bayes factor indicating moderate and weak strength of the evidence, respectively, when the models are compared to the cosmological constant Λ. However, the results suggest that axion dark energy remains a well-motivated model and its parameters may be better constrained if the upcoming DESI data show further evidence for dynamical dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of the connected four-point correlation function of galaxies from the DESI Data Release 1 luminous red galaxy sample

We present a measurement of the non-Gaussian four-point correlation function (4PCF) from the DESI DR1 luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample. For the gravitationally induced parity-even 4PCF, we detect a signal with a significance of 14.7⁢𝜎 using our fiducial setup. We assess the robustness of this detection through a series of validation tests, including auto and cross-correlation analyses, sky partitioning across multiple patch combinations, and variations in radial scale cuts. Due to the low completeness of the sample, we find that differences in fiber assignment implementation schemes can significantly impact estimation of the covariance and introduce biases in the data vector. After correcting for these effects, all tests yield consistent results. This is one of the first measurements of the connected 4PCF on the DESI LRG sample; the good agreement between the simulation and the data implies that the amplitude of the density fluctuation inferred from the connected 4PCF is consistent with the Planck Λ⁢ CDM cosmology. The methodology and diagnostic framework established in this work provide a foundation for interpreting parity-odd 4PCF.

Cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on neutrino physics from DESI DR2 BAO and DR1 full shape

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Collaboration has obtained robust measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in the redshift range 0.1 < 𝑧 < 4.2, based on the Lyman-𝛼 forest and galaxies from data release 2. We combine these measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope to place our tightest constraints yet on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming the cosmological Λ⁢ CDM model and three degenerate neutrino states, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.0642 eV (95%) with a marginalized error of 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈 ) = 0.020 eV. We also constrain the effective number of neutrino species, finding 𝑁 eff = 3.2⁢3$^{+0.35}_{−0.34}$ (95%), in line with the Standard Model prediction. When accounting for neutrino oscillation constraints, we find a preference for the normal mass ordering and an upper limit on the lightest neutrino mass of 𝑚 𝑙 < 0.023 eV (95%). However, we determine using frequentist and Bayesian methods that our constraints are in tension with the lower limits derived from neutrino oscillations. Correcting for the physical boundary at zero mass, we report a 95% Feldman-Cousins upper limit of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.053 eV, breaching the lower limit from neutrino oscillations. Considering a more general Bayesian analysis with an effective cosmological neutrino mass parameter, ∑𝑚 𝜈,eff , that allows for negative energy densities and removes unsatisfactory prior weight effects, we derive constraints that are in 3⁢𝜎 tension with the same oscillation limit, while the error rises to 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈,eff ) = 0.053 eV. In the absence of unknown systematics, this finding could be interpreted as a hint of new physics not necessarily related to neutrinos. The preference of DESI and CMB data for an evolving dark energy model offers one possible solution. In the 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢CDM model, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.163 eV (95%), relaxing the neutrino tension. These constraints all rely on the effects of neutrinos on the cosmic expansion history. Using full-shape power spectrum measurements of data release 1 galaxies, we place complementary constraints that rely on neutrino free streaming. Our strongest such limit in Λ ⁢CDM, using selected CMB priors, is ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.193 eV (95%).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extended dark energy analysis using DESI DR2 BAO measurements

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) second data release cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck cosmic microwave background observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and nonparametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the 𝑤 0⁢ 𝑤 𝑎⁢ CDM (cold dark matter) key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by nonparametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian processes, we find that extending Λ⁢ CDM to include a two-parameter 𝑤⁡(𝑧) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying 𝑤 ≥ −1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (𝑧 ≲ 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the DESI DR2 Ly⁢ 𝛼 BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), containing data from the first three years of observations, doubles the number of Lyman-α (Ly α) forest spectra in DR1 and it provides the largest dataset of its kind. To ensure a robust validation of the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) analysis using Ly α forests, we have made significant updates compared to DR1 to both the mocks and the analysis framework used in the validation. In particular, we present CoLoRe-QL, a new set of Lyα mocks that use a quasilinear input power spectrum to incorporate the nonlinear broadening of the BAO peak. Here, we have also increased the number of realizations used in the validation to 400, compared to the 150 realizations used in DR1. Finally, we present a detailed study of the impact of quasar redshift errors on the BAO measurement, and we compare different strategies to mask damped Lyman-α absorbers in our spectra. The BAO measurement from the Ly α dataset of DESI DR2 is presented in a companion publication.

Casas, L. [Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI DR2 measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) galaxy and quasar clustering data represents a significant expansion of data from Data Release 1 (DR1), providing improved statistical precision in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) constraints across multiple tracers, including bright galaxies, luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and quasars. In this paper, we validate the BAO analysis of DR2. We present the results of robustness tests on the blinded DR2 data and, after unblinding, consistency checks on the unblinded DR2 data. All results are compared with those obtained from a suite of mock catalogs that replicate the selection and clustering properties of the DR2 sample. We confirm the consistency of DR2 BAO measurements with DR1 while achieving a reduction in statistical uncertainties due to the increased survey volume and completeness. The combined BAO precision, including both statistical and systematic errors, improves from ∼0.52% in DR1 to 0.30% in DR2—a factor of 1.7 gain. We assess the impact of analysis choices, including different data vectors (correlation function vs power spectrum), modeling approaches and systematics treatments, and an assumption of the Gaussian likelihood, finding that our BAO constraints are stable across these variations and assumptions with a few minor refinements to the baseline setup of the DR1 BAO analysis. We summarize a series of pre-unblinding tests that confirmed the readiness of our analysis pipeline, the final systematic errors, and the DR2 BAO analysis baseline. The successful completion of these tests led to the unblinding of the DR2 BAO measurements, ultimately leading to the DESI DR2 cosmological analysis, with their implications for the expansion history of the Universe and the nature of dark energy presented in the DESI key paper (companion paper).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics

California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ -0.7, p ≤ 0.05).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological implications of DESI DR2 BAO measurements in light of the latest ACT DR6 CMB data

We report cosmological results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) when combined with recent data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). By jointly analyzing ACT and Planck data and applying conservative cuts to overlapping multipole ranges, we assess how different 𝑃⁢𝑙⁢𝑎⁢𝑛⁢𝑐⁢𝑘 + ACT dataset combinations affect consistency with DESI. While ACT alone exhibits a tension with DESI exceeding 3⁢𝜎 within the Λ⁢ CDM model, this discrepancy is reduced when ACT is analyzed in combination with Planck. For our baseline DESI DR2 BAO + 𝑃⁢𝑙⁢𝑎⁢𝑛⁢𝑐⁢𝑘 P⁢R⁢4 + ACT likelihood combination, the preference for evolving dark energy over a cosmological constant is about 3⁢𝜎, increasing to over 4⁢𝜎 with the inclusion of type Ia supernova data. While the dark energy results remain quite consistent across various combinations of Planck and ACT likelihoods with those obtained by the DESI collaboration, the constraints on neutrino mass are more sensitive, ranging from ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.061 eV in our baseline analysis, to ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.077 eV (95% confidence level) in the CMB likelihood combination chosen by ACT when imposing the physical prior ∑𝑚 𝜈 > 0 eV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Positive Neutrino Masses with DESI DR2 via Matter Conversion to Dark Energy

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is a massively parallel spectroscopic survey on the Mayall telescope at Kitt Peak, which has released measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations determined from over 14 million extragalactic targets. We combine DESI Data Release 2 with CMB datasets to search for evidence of matter conversion to dark energy (DE), focusing on a scenario mediated by stellar collapse to cosmologically coupled black holes (CCBHs). In this physical model, which has the same number of free parameters as Λ⁢CDM, DE production is determined by the cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD), allowing for distinct early- and late-time cosmologies. Using two SFRDs to bracket current observations, we find that the CCBH model: accurately recovers the cosmological expansion history, agrees with early-time baryon abundance measured by BBN, reduces tension with the local distance ladder, and relaxes constraints on the summed neutrino mass ∑𝑚 𝜈 . For these SFRDs, we find a peaked positive ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.149 eV (95% confidence) and ∑𝑚 𝜈 = 0.106$^{+0.050}_{−0.069}$ eV, respectively, in good agreement with lower limits from neutrino oscillation experiments. A peak in ∑𝑚 𝜈 > 0 results from late-time baryon consumption in the CCBH scenario and is expected to be a general feature of any model that converts sufficient matter to dark energy during and after reionization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for multi-decadal fuel buildup in a large California wildfire from smoke radiocarbon measurements

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in annual area burned in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. This rise in fire activity has prompted the need to understand how historical forest management practices affect fuel composition and emissions. Here we examined the total carbon (TC) concentration and radiocarbon abundance (Δ 14 C) of particulate matter (PM) emitted by the KNP Complex Fire, which occurred during California's 2021 wildfire season and affected several groves of giant sequoia trees in the southern Sierra Nevada. During a 26 h sampling period, we measured concentrations of fine airborne PM (PM 2.5 ), as well as dry air mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ), using a ground-based mobile laboratory. We also collected filter samples of PM 2.5 for analysis of TC concentration and Δ 14 C. High correlation among PM 2.5 , CO, and CH 4 time series confirmed that our PM 2.5 measurements captured variability in wildfire emissions. Using a Keeling plot approach, we determined that the mean Δ 14 C of PM 2.5 was 111.6 ± 7.7‰ (n = 12), which was considerably enriched relative to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere in 2021 (-3.2 ± 1.4‰). Combining these Δ 14 C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades. This is consistent with independent field observations that indicate high fire intensity contributed to widespread giant sequoia mortality. With the expanded use of prescribed fires planned over the next decade in California to mitigate wildfire impacts, our measurement approach has the potential to provide regionally-integrated estimates of the effectiveness of fuel treatment programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗