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DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

Abstract The serial occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the US West Coast can lead to prolonged and exacerbated hydrologic impacts, threatening flood‐control and water‐supply infrastructure due to soil saturation and diminished recovery time between storms. Here a statistical approach for quantifying subseasonal temporal clustering among extreme events is applied to a 41‐year (1979–2019) wintertime AR catalog across the western United States (US). Observed AR occurrence, compared against a randomly distributed AR timeseries with the same average event density, reveals temporal clustering at a greater‐than‐random rate across the western US with a distinct geographical pattern. Compared to the Pacific Northwest, significant AR clusters over the northern Coastal Range of California and Sierra Nevada are more frequent and occur over longer time periods. Clusters along the California Coastal Range typically persist for 2 weeks, are composed of 4–5 ARs per cluster, and account for over 85% of total AR occurrence. Across the northwest Coast‐Cascade Ranges, clusters account for ∼50% of total AR occurrence, typically last 8–10 days, and contain 3–4 individual AR events. Based on precipitation data from a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling of reanalysis, the fractions of total and extreme hourly precipitation attributable to AR clusters are largest along the northern California coast and in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability among clusters highlights their importance for determining whether a particular water year is anomalously wet or dry. The mechanisms behind this unusual clustering are unclear and require further research.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Environmental risks and opportunities of orphaned oil and gas wells in the United States

Abstract Hundreds of thousands of documented and undocumented orphaned oil and gas wells exist in the United States (U.S.). These wells have the potential to contaminate water supplies, degrade ecosystems, and emit methane and other air pollutants. Thus, orphaned wells present risks to climate stability and to environmental and human health, which can be reduced by plugging. To quantify environmental risks and opportunities of well plugging at the national level, we analyze data on 81 857 documented orphaned wells across the U.S. We find that > 4.6 million people live within 1 km of a documented orphaned well. 35% of the documented orphaned wells are located within 1 km of a domestic groundwater well, yet only 8% of the wells have groundwater quality data within a 1 km radius. Methane emissions from the documented orphaned wells represent approximately 3%–6% of total U.S. methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells, but this estimate is based on measurements at < 0.03% of U.S. abandoned wells. 91% of the documented orphaned wells overlie formations favorable for geologic storage of carbon dioxide and hydrogen, meaning that orphaned well plugging can reduce leakage risks from future storage projects. Finally, we estimate plugging costs for documented orphaned wells to exceed the $4.7 billion federal funding by 30%–80%, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing federal spending on wells with large remediation benefits. Overall, environmental monitoring data are not extensive enough to quantify risks, especially those related to air and water quality and human health. Plugging orphaned wells can provide opportunities for geologic storage of carbon dioxide and hydrogen and geothermal energy development, thereby facilitating efforts to transition to net-zero energy systems. Our analysis on environmental risks and opportunities of orphaned wells provides a framework that can be used to manage the millions of documented and undocumented orphaned wells in the U.S. and abroad.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Venous Gas Embolism: Review to Quantify a Safe Volume of Air in Intravenous Fluids Bags for Spaceflight Applications

INTRODUCTION: The ability to create intravenous fluids (IVF) in-situ from the potable water supply of a spaceflight vehicle or habitat is a desired capability for an exploration medical system. In order to define an acceptable volume of air in IVF bags, an understanding of the volume of venous gas embolism as it relates to negative outcomes is needed. The purpose of this study is to review the literature to determine if there is a known volume of gas that contributes to mortality and/or morbidity that could be used to define requirements for rapid IVF infusion in microgravity. METHODS: A literature review was conducted of the PubMed database using the syntax: (Venous) AND (Gas OR Air) AND (Embolism) AND (Morbidity) AND (Mortality) AND (Volume) as well as manual review of references from relevant articles. 151 articles were screened excluding partial text and pediatric articles. Studies were reviewed for identification of volume of venous gas embolism associated with morbidity and/or mortality, which identified 27 articles. RESULTS: Reviewed literature included animal studies, case reports, and review articles. A high variation of proposed volumes contributing to mortality was reported. The limited human data values ranged from 20 ml to 200 ml of infused air with mortality estimated to be 48 – 80%. No studies evaluated human morbidity in any capacity. DISCUSSION: The lack of consensus on the safe volume of infused air has potential ramifications for IVF use in spaceflight as current technologies to create IVF from potable water may introduce air in IVF bags. While current microgravity infusion protocols call for the use of inline air removal filters, commercially available options have flow rate limitations that preclude rapid infusion in a resuscitation scenario. Such filters may be used in parallel to increase flow rate, but the time required to set up such a system may exclude its use during a medical emergency. Additionally, these consumable filters drive up the overall mass and volume of the medical system. Identification of a safe volume of air in IVF would allow for guidelines for the in-situ production of IVF in future spaceflight vehicles/habitats.

Christopher R Woodard↗

DOE OSTI2022

Environmental Flow Requirements from FERC Licenses Across the US

Environmental flow requirements included in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licenses are important for balancing natural properties and benefits of river ecosystems (e.g., healthy species, recreation, water supply, flood control) supporting hydropower production. In some cases, environmental flow requirements may limit operational flexibility given current operational schemes and make a hydropower plant less able to provide power to the electric grid on demand. Hydropower plants may gain some flexibility as hydropower scheduling time periods are made to be more responsive to the short-term needs of an energy grid increasingly reliant on intermittent renewables. However, many flow requirements focus on the daily, monthly, or seasonal flow fluctuations which matches the time scale of most paradigms linking flow alterations to the health of river ecosystems. This dataset seeks to provide a greater understanding of how flexibility in environmental requirements can be leveraged to create positive outcomes for both the power system and the environment. It contains information on environmental flow requirements from the Protection, Mitigation, and Enhancement section of 50 randomly selected FERC licenses: 25 issued from 1998-2013 that were also included in the ORNL Mitigation Database (Schramm et al. 2015) and 25 issued from 2014-present. The information on environmental flow requirements was extracted from the PM&E section of 50 randomly selected FERC licenses: 25 issued from 1998-2013 that were also included in the ORNL Mitigation Database (Schramm et al. 2015) and 25 issued from 2014-present. The flow requirements were then categorized into flow augmentation categories based on whether the license stated a specific water management purpose for the given requirement called augmentation categories (i.e., fisheries or habitat, recreation or boating, industry, and general or unspecified; Table B). Requirements were also grouped into flow type categories (e.g., minimum flow rate, maximum flow rate, ramping rate). Additional information related to flow requirements such as the augmentation time-period and whether the flow rate was continuous (i.e., condition must be present at all-times) or instantaneous (i.e., condition present at a point in time) was also extracted from the licenses. Some licenses had specific flow requirements based on whether the project was in a wet, dry, or normal water year. If that information was presented in the license, it was also included in the data set. The location within the project was noted, hereafter, zone, in the dataset for flow requirements relating to specific areas of hydropower projects (Dam, Powerhouse, Bypass Reach). Maximum discharge capacities of hydropower facilities were also extracted from both the Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) data set and the National Inventory of Dams (NID) databases. Each facility was coded with project identification codes from the EHA dataset to facilitate cross-referencing between datasets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021

The Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Oldsmar cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 5 February 2021, an adversary gained unauthorized remote access to Bruce T. Haddock Water Treatment Plant in Oldsmar, Florida, which provides treated water to 15,000 customers. The adversary accessed the facility’s Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) workstation and human machine interface (HMI) to change the chemical concentration of sodium hydroxide, commonly referred to as lye and used to regulate acidity levels, from 100 parts per million (PPM) to 11,100 PPM. The chemical was raised to lethal levels that if ingested could lead to serious soft tissue damage, burns, or even death. The facility, however, had redundancies and alarms in place to alert personnel of dangerous chemical levels, and facility officials stated it would have taken 24 to 36 hours for the chemical changes to affect the water supply. Researchers and analysts identified six unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 23 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Four of the identified techniques used during the Oldsmar cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 21 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 20 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the minutes preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated -EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Functional Distributed Fiber Sensors for Pipeline Monitoring and Methane Detections. Final Report

As an abundant and cheap fossil energy source, natural gas has become a significant energy supply to support the United States’ economy. However, the large-scale extraction and utilization of natural gas also impose significant challenges on methane leakage. This problem is exacerbated by aging gas utility delivery systems, including interstate high-pressure pipelines, storage, and transmission facilities. This project aims to develop a cost-effective fiber optical sensing method that can perform multi-parameter real-time measurements of natural gas pipelines across long interrogation distances up to 100 km with 1-meter spatial resolution. This sensing tool can evaluate overall pipeline efficiency and reduce methane emissions for mid-stream methane infrastructures. To accomplish this objective, research and development efforts funded by this project have resulted in the following accomplishments: This project successfully has developed new functional sensory polymer materials using Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) that can be coated on optical fiber through the reel-to-reel coating process. Functional polymer-coated optical fibers can perform sensitive methane detection through evanescence wave interaction and strain-based measurements to achieve 1% detection sensitivities. The new sensors fibers support both distributed measurements and multiplexed fiber sensors array for multi-point measurements. This project developed and optimized a new multi-core optical fiber that supports simultaneous and distributed measurements of strain and temperatures with 1-meter spatial resolutions across up to 100-km interrogation distance. This new fiber, combined with sensory polymercoated fiber, could perform both distributed temperature and methane detections. This project developed a new artificial intelligence big data algorithm approach that can effectively analyze high-resolution data harnessed by distributed fiber sensors to protect natural gas pipelines against external threats and detect internal defects induced by corrosion. Working with our industry partner, this project developed new optical fibers that support fiber sensor fabrications through polymer coating after the fibers are drawn. These new fibers eliminate the need for direct sensor fabrication when the fiber is fabricated on a fiber draw tower, which drastically expands fiber sensors' applicability. This research project has significantly advanced the distributed fiber sensing technology. It will dramatically increase the applicability and adaptability of distributed fiber sensors for a wide array of applications in energy, sustainability, and environmental science, including structural health monitoring of natural gas pipelines, oil infrastructures, hydrogen facilities, and environmental monitoring of carbon storage sites, water supply systems, and others.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Starch depletion in the xylem and phloem ray parenchyma of grapevine stems under drought

Abstract While nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage can support long-lived woody plants during abiotic stress, the timing and extent of their use are less understood, as are the thresholds for cell mortality as NSCs and water supplies are consumed. Here, we combine physiological and imaging tools to study the response of Vitis riparia to a 6-week experimental drought. We focused on the spatial and temporal dynamics of starch consumption and cell viability in the xylem and phloem of the stem. Starch dynamics were further corroborated with enzymatic starch digestion and X-ray microcomputed tomography imaging. Starch depletion in the stems of droughted plants was detected after 2 weeks and continued over time. We observed distinct differences in starch content and cell viability in the xylem and phloem. By the end of the drought, nearly all the starch was consumed in the phloem ray parenchyma (98 % decrease), and there were almost no metabolically active cells in the phloem. In contrast, less starch was consumed in the xylem ray parenchyma (30 % decrease), and metabolically active cells remained in the ray and vessel-associated parenchyma in the xylem. Our data suggest that the higher proportion of living cells in the phloem and cambium, combined with smaller potential NSC storage area, rapidly depleted starch, which led to cell death. In contrast, the larger cross-sectional area of the xylem ray parenchyma with higher NSC storage and lower metabolically active cell populations depleted starch at a slower pace. Why NSC source-sink relationships between xylem and phloem do not allow for a more uniform depletion of starch in ray parenchyma over time is unclear. Our data help to pinpoint the proximate and ultimate causes of plant death during prolonged drought exposure and highlight the need to consider the influence of within-organ starch dynamics and cell mortality on abiotic stress response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrating density functional theory into reductive dechlorination research

Abstract Chlorinated organics have been frequently detected in groundwaters, threatening the quality of drinking water supplies worldwide. A promising method for groundwater remediation involves reductive dechlorination (RD), in which chlorine atoms are sequentially removed and substituted by hydrogen, producing less harmful byproducts. In this paper, for the first time, RD research is reviewed in light of the growing incorporation of density functional theory (DFT) as a research tool. DFT has been used to uncover a variety of reaction properties for a range of relevant groundwater pollutants, including 1,2,3‐trichloropropane, hexachlorobenzene, and various dioxins. DFT models have revealed the role of surface interactions in driving the kinetics of catalytically driven RD. Mechanisms involved with biologically mediated RD have also been elucidated with insights gleaned from DFT. Issues and challenges for future research are also discussed.

Das Schober, Jaya↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessments of data centers for provision of frequency regulation

There are numerous opportunities for data centers to participate in demand response programs considering their large energy capacities, flexible working environments and workloads, redundant design and operation, etc. As a type of demand response, frequency regulation requires fast response, and its potential is not fully explored by data centers yet. This paper proposes a synergistic control strategy for data center frequency regulation which uses both IT and cooling systems. It combines power management techniques at the server level with control of the chilled water supply temperature to track the regulation signal from the electrical market. A frequency regulation flexibility factor is also proposed to increase the IT capacity for frequency regulation. The performance of the control strategy is studied through numerical simulations using an equation based object-oriented Modelica platform designed for data centers. Simulation results show that with well-tuned control parameters, data centers can provide frequency regulation service in both regulation up and down. The performance of data centers in providing frequency regulation service is largely influenced by the regulation capacity bid, frequency regulation flexibility factor, workload condition, and cooling mode of the cooling system, and not significantly influenced by the time constant of chillers. In addition, compared with a server-only control strategy, the proposed synergistic control strategy can provide an extra regulation capacity of 3% of the design power when chillers are activated. Here, when chillers are deactivated, both strategies have a similar regulation capacity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Te(IV) immobilization by siderite: Reaction kinetics, mechanism, and Te isotopic fractionation

Mining and industrial use over recent decades have released tellurium (Te) into the environment where it potentially contaminates soils, water supplies and food sources. Therefore, it is important to find ways of removing mobile and bioavailable Te from aqueous environments. Here, we report aqueous Te(IV) removal by siderite at varying Te concentrations (2, 6 and 10 mg mL –1 Te(IV)) and pH values (7, 7.9 and 9), together with associated isotope fractionation (ε 130 Te/ 125 Te). Our results show effective immobilization of Te(IV) that follows pseudo-first order rate kinetics. Formation of magnetite indicates reduction of Te(IV) on siderite surfaces and the formation of Te(0). The overall isotope fractionation (ε) is small (–0.23 ± 0.06‰) providing evidence that it is primarily controlled by adsorption of Te(IV) occurring simultaneously with reduction of Te(IV). Therefore, Te(IV) removal by siderite under mildly reducing ferruginous conditions may be identifiable by the characteristically small isotopic fractionation during both natural attenuation and active remediation. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting reaction mechanisms of Te(IV) immobilization by an environmentally relevant Fe(II) mineral.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling geophysical, geological, geochemical and mineralogical assessments to examine preferential contaminant transport pathways in interbedded fractured bedrock

This study shows that a multi-faceted approach, combining borehole geophysical logging and surface seismic P-wave first-arrival tomography with confirmatory coring, well installation, and chemical and mineralogical analysis, is effective for identifying difficult-to-locate preferential contaminant transport pathways in deeper fractured bedrock. Seismic tomography detected porous 10–20 m wide elongated fractured conduits that allow acidic groundwater contaminated with uranium (U) and nitrate (NO 3 - ) to migrate within interbedded shale-limestone bedrock over 1000 m from a former disposal facility (S-3 Ponds site) located at the DOE Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee (USA). Conventional drilling techniques would easily miss these conduits because they are oriented parallel with fractured bedding planes. Synchrotron analysis of aquifer solids revealed that > 95 % of the U is hexavalent (U VI ). This uranyl (UO 2 2+ ) species is coordinated with carbonate, iron oxide, silicate and phosphate minerals within cemented white to yellow precipitates, which contain U concentrations as high as ∼21.6 % by weight fraction. Identifying the presence of these mineral phases, enables a further understanding of the potential effectiveness of remediation actions. The combination of methodologies presented here can also be applied to other explorations, such as the detection of water supply.

Fate and transport↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic in-situ imaging of methane hydrate formation and self-preservation in porous media

Here we present the results of dynamic in-situ 3D X-ray imaging of methane hydrates microstructure during methane hydrate formation and dissociation in sand samples. Short scanning times and high resolution provided by synchrotron X-rays allowed for better understanding of water movement and different types of gas-hydrate formation. Complementing previous observations, we conclude that the process of gas-hydrate formation is accompanied by the water movements caused by cryogenic water suction that happens in sequences of short fast movements with longer equilibrium states in between (when the water is immobile). Based on the 3D microstructure we identified two distinct types of gas-hydrate formation: (i) into the gas pockets and (ii) inside water volumes. For both mechanisms we do not see problems in gas or water supply to support the gas-hydrate formation. The rate of dissociation in the self-preservation mode (pressure drop at negative temperatures) appears to be different for these two types of gas hydrates. This means that the history of the gas-hydrate formation may influence its behaviour at the dissociation stage (e.g. gas-hydrate production).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implication of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on compound precipitation and temperature extremes in Africa

Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (R warm|dry and R cold|dry ) and wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050-2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070-2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986-2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. Furthermore, the termination effect is noted to re duce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiation Accidents and Malicious Events – Scenarios and Scope of the Work of ICRP Task Group 120

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 120 (TG120) is developing ICRP recommendations for radiological protection for a wide range of radiation accidents and malicious events, complementing those given in ICRP Publication 146 (2020) for large nuclear accidents. The scope includes accidents involving criticalities, operating faults, and fires and explosions in nuclear facilities, inadvertent damage to sealed radiation sources, as well as malicious events, such as sabotage of nuclear facilities or materials, use of radiological dispersal devices, the contamination of food and drinking water supplies, and the deployment of nuclear weapons. A template has been designed to collate relevant information on a wide range of case studies and hypothetical malicious scenarios to ensure that the recommendations developed are broadly applicable and comprehensive. For all scenarios, a graded approach to protection is being taken, accepting that specific guidance may be required for some distinctive aspects, for example, protection during times of armed conflict. This paper provides an overview of the scenarios and scope of the work of TG120, including some of the radiological and non-radiological impacts of radiation emergencies, along the response and recovery timeline.

ICRP↗