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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2022

The Co2 Profile and Analytical Model for the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer

We present a significantly updated CO2 altitude profile for Venus (64.2–0.9 km) and provide support for a potential deep lower atmospheric haze of particles (≤17 km). We extracted this information by developing a new analytical model for mass spectra obtained by the Pioneer Venus Large Probe (PVLP) Neutral Mass Spectrometer (LNMS). Our model accounts for changes in LNMS configuration and output during descent and enables the disentanglement of isobaric species via a data fitting routine that adjusts for mass-dependent changes in peak shape. The model yields CO2 in units of density (kg m−3), isotope ratios for 13C/12C and 18O/16O, and 14 measures of CO2 density across 55.4–0.9 km, which represents the most complete altitude profile for CO2 at ≤60 km to date. The CO2 density profile is also consistent with the pressure, temperature, and volumetric gas measurements from the PVLP and VeNeRa spacecraft. Nominal and low-noise operations for the LNMS mass analyzer are supported by the behaviors (e.g., ionization yields, fragmentation yields, and peak shapes) of several internal standards (e.g., CH3+, CH4+, 40Ar+, 136Xe2+, and 136Xe+), which were tracked across the descent. Lastly, our review of the CO2 profile and LNMS spectra reveals hitherto unreported partial and rapidly clearing clogs of the inlet in the lower atmosphere, along with several ensuing data spikes at multiple masses. Together, these observations suggest that atmospheric intake was impacted by particles at ≤17 km and that rapid particle degradation at the inlet yielded a temporary influx of mass signals into the LNMS.

Venus↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗
NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop−water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980−2009) and mid-century climates (2040−2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to ~31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗
NASA NTRS1976

LACIE: Yield-weather regression models for the Canadian prairies

Most of the variability in wheat production is due to weather fluctuations. Climatic differences within the region account for a large portion of the variability in yields for different parts of the region. Separate regression models were developed for each of the areas indicated.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The whistler heat flux instability: Threshold conditions in the solar wind

Solar wind electrons are observed often to consist of two components: a core and a halo. The anisotropics and relative average speeds of these components correspond to a heat flux that has the potential to excite several different electromagetic instabilities; wave-particle scattering by the resulting enhanced fluctuations can limit this heat flux. This manuscript describes theoretical studies using the linear Vlasco dispersion equation for drifting bi-Maxwellian component distributions in a homogeneous plasma to examine the threshold of the whistler heat flux instability. Expressions for this threshold are obtained from two different parametric baselines: a local model that yields scalings as functions of local dimensionless plasma paramaters, and a global model based on average electron properties observed during the in-eliptic phase of the Ulysses mission. The latter model yields an expression for the heat flux at threshold of the whistler instability as a function of helisopheric radius that scales in the same way as the average heat flux observed form Ulysses and that provides an approximate upper bound for that same quantity. This theoretical scaling is combined with the observational results to yield a semi-empirical closure relation for the average electron heat flux in the solar wind between 1 and 5 AU.

Gary, S. Peter↗
NASA NTRS1979

Microplume model of spatial-yield spectra

An analytic representation for the spatial (radial and longitudinal) yield spectra is developed in terms of a model containing three simple 'microplumes'. The model is applied to electron energy degradation in molecular nitrogen gas for 0.1 to 5 keV incident electrons. From the nature of the cross section input to this model it is expected that the scaled spatial yield spectra for other gases will be quite similar. The model indicates that each excitation, ionization, etc. plume should have its individual spatial and energy dependence. Extensions and aeronomical and radiological applications of the model are discussed.

Green, A. E. S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD↗
NASA NTRS1990

Steady-state and transient Zener parameters in viscoplasticity: Drag strength versus yield strength

A hypothesis is put forth which enables the viscoplastician to formulate a theory of viscoplasticity that reduces, in closed form, to the classical theory of creep. This hypothesis is applied to a variety of drag and yield strength models. Because of two theoretical restrictions that are a consequence of this hypothesis, three different yield strength models and one drag strength model are shown to be theoretically admissible. One of these yield strength models is selected as being the most appropriate representation for isotropic hardening.

Freed, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A complete model of turbulence

A set of constitutive equations suitable for a priori computation of turbulent shear flows has been developed. Since no properties of a given turbulent flow need be known in advance in order to obtain a solution, the equations comprise a complete model of turbulence. Perturbation analysis shows that the model predicts a composite five-layer structure for an incompressible turbulent boundary layer, viz, a defect layer, a law-of-the-wall layer, a viscous sublayer, a near-surface roughness layer, and a viscous superlayer at the boundary-layer edge. Analysis of the defect layer demonstrates the key improvement of the model over its predecessor, the Saffman-Wilcox two-equation model of turbulence. Examination of model-predicted sublayer structure yields model-parameter boundary conditions appropriate for surfaces with roughness and mass injection. Results of numerical computations of compressible and incompressible equilibrium boundary layers show that, for such flows, the model is as accurate as mixing-length theory. Applications to transitional boundary layers and to nonequilibrium relaxation of a boundary layer passing from a rough to a smooth surface indicate that the model's applicability extends far beyond that of mixing-length theory's.

Wilcox, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Methods and models for predicting fatigue crack growth under random loading

Papers are presented in the volume summarizing the baseline data, methodology, procedures, and results of a round-robin analysis which was conducted to predict the fatigue crack growth in 2219-T851 aluminum center-cracked specimens subjected to flight loading in random cycle-by-cycle format. The objective of the analysis was to assess whether data from constant-amplitude fatigue crack growth tests on center-cracked specimens can be used to predict fatigue crack growth lives under random loading. The following approaches are discussed in detail: a root-mean-square approach, a crack-closure model, a multi-parameter yield zone model, and a load-interaction model.

Chang, J. B.↗