Results for “sensitivity analysis” — Page 20

DOE OSTI2024

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗

DOE OSTI2026

Africa Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Capacity Building Utility-Scale Storage: BESS Valuation, Tariffs, and Remuneration [Slides]

Utility-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are key to enhancing grid reliability, integrating renewable energy, and providing operational flexibility. Designing effective valuation, remuneration, and tariff frameworks is essential to ensure both system benefits and financial viability for developers. This presentation outlines a structured methodology for evaluating BESS projects, covering policy and legal considerations, cost and revenue analysis, benchmarking, financial sensitivity, and risk assessment, while ensuring alignment with public interest. It also explores valuation of multiple storage services - bulk energy, ancillary services, and infrastructure support - and monetization strategies through capacity payments, energy tariffs, tolling, arbitrage, and non-wires alternative payments. Technical factors, including round-trip efficiency, degradation, and storage duration, are integrated into financial and operational modeling to quantify both system-wide and project-level benefits. Through case studies and simulation-based approaches, this framework provides regulators, utilities, and developers with practical guidance for tariff design, payment structures, and investment decisions, maximizing the economic and societal value of BESS deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal reconstruction of baryon acoustic oscillations for DESI 2024

Baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) provide a robust standard ruler to measure the expansion history of the Universe through galaxy clustering. Density-field reconstruction is now a widely adopted procedure for increasing the precision and accuracy of the BAO detection. With the goal of finding the optimal reconstruction settings to be used in the DESI 2024 galaxy BAO analysis, we assess the sensitivity of the post-reconstruction BAO constraints to different choices in our analysis configuration, performing tests on blinded data from the first year of DESI observations (DR1), as well as on mocks that mimic the expected clustering and selection properties of the DESI DR1 target samples. Overall, we find that BAO constraints remain robust against multiple aspects in the reconstruction process, including the choice of smoothing scale, treatment of redshift-space distortions, fiber assignment incompleteness, and parameterizations of the BAO model. We also present a series of tests that DESI followed in order to assess the maturity of the end-to-end galaxy BAO pipeline before the unblinding of the large-scale structure catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Dark Photon Dark Matter Search with a Widely-Tunable SRF Cavity

The SERAPH (SupERconducting Axion and Paraphoton Haloscope) experiment is a family of superconducting haloscopes being developed by the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems (SQMS) Center to search for wavelike dark matter. This presentation will focus on preliminary results from our dark photon dark matter search using a widely-tunable SRF cavity operating between 4-7 GHz, nicknamed the “plunger cavity.” I will present the cavity design and characterization, analyze the impact of microphonics on system performance and haloscope sensitivity, and describe our tuning methodology for this Q~10^8 cavity. The presentation will cover our haloscope analysis approach and discuss sensitivity limits achieved within this frequency range. Finally, I will outline lessons learned from this first search, implications for future axion searches, and proposed improvements for subsequent SERAPH experiments.

Cervantes, Raphael [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Dark Photon Dark Matter Search with a Widely-Tunable SRF Cavity

The SERAPH (SupERconducting Axion and Paraphoton Haloscope) experiment is a family of superconducting haloscopes being developed by the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems (SQMS) Center to search for wavelike dark matter. This presentation will focus on preliminary results from our dark photon dark matter search using a widely-tunable SRF cavity operating between 4-7 GHz, nicknamed the "plunger cavity." I will present the cavity design and characterization, analyze the impact of microphonics on system performance and haloscope sensitivity, and describe our tuning methodology for this Q~10^8 cavity. The presentation will cover our haloscope analysis approach and discuss sensitivity limits achieved in this frequency range. Finally, I will outline lessons learned from this first search, implications for future axion searches, and proposed improvements for subsequent SERAPH experiments.

Cervantes, Raphael [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quasi-In-Situ Analysis of Electrode Top Atomic Layers via High-Sensitivity Low-Energy Ion Scattering and Potential-Controlled Sample Transfer

Electrocatalytic reactions involve interfacial interactions between the surfaces of electrodes and reactive species at an electrolyte interface. There are presently no universal or unambiguous methods to directly assay the active top atomic layer composition that influences the reactivity of these electrodes under relevant operating conditions. Low-energy ion scattering (LEIS) spectroscopy is a surface characterization technique that yields compositional analysis of the outermost atomic layer of a material, but it must be performed in ultrahigh vacuum (UHV). Application of LEIS measurements to electrochemical materials that are removed from ambient liquid-phase environments thus leaves an open question as to whether the surface that is transferred to UHV is truly the surface that manifested during the electrochemical reaction. Toward the goal of preserving the active surface state, we developed a sample transfer workflow for LEIS enabling air-free removal and drying of an electrode from an electrochemical cell while maintaining control of the potential using an auxiliary electrode. The potential-controlled emersion method was demonstrated to give distinct potential-dependent surface compositions for a Cu−Pd alloy relative to removal after uncontrolled return to open-circuit potential. A Cu-enriched surface was found at anodic potential and a Pd-enriched surface at cathodic potential, suggesting that the approach can be used to retain representative atomic configurations during transfer. Since adsorbates will often persist from the reaction environment, conventional sample pretreatment methods for removal, including atomic O and atomic H exposure, were also contrasted. Both methods were found to differ with results from incidental low-dose depth profiling by the LEIS primary ion source, which removes adventitious species and surface atoms during the course of repeated measurements. These depth profiles were found to be sensitive to sample history and thus qualitatively informative, despite the possible changes induced by ion damage. The results exhibit (i) the need for complete control over the polarization state of the sample at all times (no excursions to open circuit during transfer) and (ii) the utility of low-dose depth profiling to capture changes in the near-surface composition.

Alloys↗

DOE OSTI2024

Causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Cerebral aneurysm is a high-risk cerebrovascular disease with a poor prognosis, potentially linked to multiple factors. This study aims to explore the association between mitochondrial-associated proteins and the risk of cerebral aneurysms using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. Methods We used GWAS summary statistics from the IEU Open GWAS project for mitochondrial-associated proteins and from the Finnish database for cerebral aneurysms (uIA, aSAH). The association between mitochondrial-associated exposures and cerebral aneurysms was evaluated using MR-Egger, weighted mode, IVW, simple mode and weighted median methods. Reverse MR assessed reverse causal relationship, while sensitivity analyses examined heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the instrumental variables. Significant causal relationship with cerebral aneurysms were confirmed using FDR correction. Results Through MR analysis, we identified six mitochondrial proteins associated with an increased risk of aSAH: AIF1 (OR: 1.394, 95% CI: 1.109–1.752, p = 0.0044), CCDC90B (OR: 1.318, 95% CI: 1.132–1.535, p = 0.0004), TIM14 (OR: 1.272, 95% CI: 1.041–1.553, p = 0.0186), NAGS (OR: 1.219, 95% CI: 1.008–1.475, p = 0.041), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.311, 95% CI: 1.096–1.569, p = 0.003), and MRM3 (OR: 1.097, 95% CI: 1.016–1.185, p = 0.0175). Among these, CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and AIF1 demonstrated a significant causal relationship with an increased risk of aSAH (FDR q < 0.1). Three mitochondrial proteins were associated with an increased risk of uIA: CCDC90B (OR: 1.309, 95% CI: 1.05–1.632, p = 0.0165), tRNA PusA (OR: 1.306, 95% CI: 1.007–1.694, p = 0.0438), and MRM3 (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.012–1.263, p = 0.0303). In the reverse MR study, only one mitochondrial protein, TIM14 (OR: 1.087, 95% CI: 1.004–1.177, p = 0.04), showed a causal relationship with aSAH. Sensitivity analysis did not reveal heterogeneity or pleiotropy. The results suggest that CCDC90B, tRNA PusA, and MRM3 may be common risk factors for cerebral aneurysms (ruptured and unruptured), while AIF1 and NAGS are specifically associated with an increased risk of aSAH, unrelated to uIA. TIM14 may interact with aSAH. Conclusion Our findings confirm a causal relationship between mitochondrial-associated proteins and cerebral aneurysms, offering new insights for future research into the pathogenesis and treatment of this condition.

Wang, Shuai↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Radioactive 65 Zn Contamination using 3D Position Sensitive CdZnTe Detectors

SRNL NMG Goal: In collaboration with ORNL, the aim is to identify and explore innovative technology opportunities that accelerate disposition, reduce life cycle costs, minimize worker radiation exposure, and improve worker safety and minimize program risks. • This process will include 3 glovebox systems that require personnel to dilute and package the plutonium for safe storage at WIPP. • For holdup monitoring and verification, gamma ray spectroscopy and imaging are the methods employed to achieve real time analysis of the plutonium waste. 2

Nwadeyi, Valerie E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARCADE Technical Pathway and Industry Impact

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) simplifies the evaluation and assessment of robustness factor and cyber resilience that support secure-by-design for advanced reactor nuclear power plants. In this manner, ARCADE supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of cybersecurity through its integration of plant physics with high-fidelity emulations of control systems. This cross domain approach enables comprehensive analysis of control system sensitivities, cyber-attack scenarios, and their consequences. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands identified in Tier 1 of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) as outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying market volume sensitivity to material property modifications in polyhydroxybutyrate: A parametric analysis approach

Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a biodegradable biopolymer, represents a promising alternative to petroleum-based thermoplastics. However, despite consistent market growth, PHB faces persistent commercialization challenges that limit widespread adoption. Existing research has focused predominantly on optimizing PHB production processes, leaving a critical gap in understanding which material property modifications would most effectively enhance market competitiveness. This study addresses this gap by systematically analyzing the relationship between polymer material properties and market performance using U.S. market data from 2008 to 2021 for 21 thermoplastic polymers across 19 material properties. We employed principal component regression to identify property modifications that could maximize market volume while reducing CO 2 emissions. Our parametric analysis revealed that two specific material properties – Hardness Shore A and Sheet Extrusion Temperature – significantly influence PHB marketability across different price points. Market simulations demonstrated that a 10% increase in Hardness Shore A could increase PHB market volume by 431.5 million kg while reducing emissions by 188.7 kg CO 2 . A similar 10% increase to Sheet Extrusion Temperature could yield a 297.5 million kg volume increase and a 99.2 kg CO 2 reduction in emissions. Critically, this approach is agnostic to the specific methods required to achieve these property changes, instead providing material scientists with quantitative, data-driven targets for R&D prioritization. Here, this framework offers a novel methodology for evaluating biopolymer competitiveness and supporting strategic decisions to accelerate PHB market adoption and contribute to decarbonization of the plastics industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Sterile Neutrino Searches in NOvA using the Booster Neutrino Beam

The NOvA experiment’s most recent search for eV-scale sterile neutrinos under a 3+1 model simultaneously analyses muon neutrino and neutral current datasets from the NuMI beam at it's Near ($\sim$1 km baseline) and Far (810 km baseline) detectors to look for oscillations consistent with a sterile neutrino. The analysis is systematically limited in the region of parameter space where $\Delta m^{2}_{41} $>~1 eV^2$. This region of parameter space is preferred by sterile neutrino interpretations of current experimental anomalies and so improving sensitivity here is high-priority. The Near Detector’s position on-site at Fermilab means that it is also able to observe neutrinos from a second neutrino beam, the BNB, 160 mrad off-axis. This data probes a similar L/E to the NuMI data, but using a different neutrino energy, and being subject to different beam-related uncertainties. Jointly analysing these datasets can help us to constrain our systematic uncertainties, improving our sensitivity. NOvA has been taking BNB data since 2015, but has not yet analysed these data. This poster will present first sensitivities from the combined analysis of the BNB and NuMI datasets.

Lister, Adam [U. Wisconsin, Madison (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

A fast and sensitive size-exclusion chromatography method for plasma extracellular vesicle proteomic analysis

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) carry diverse biomolecules derived from their parental cells, making their components excellent biomarker candidates. However, purifying EVs is a major hurdle in biomarker discovery since current methods require large amounts of samples, are time-consuming and typically have poor reproducibility. Here we describe a simple, fast, and sensitive EV fractionation method using size exclusion chromatography (SEC) on a fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) system. Our method uses a Superose 6 Increase 5/150, which has a bed volume of 2.9 mL. The FPLC system and small column size enable reproducible separation of only 50 µL of human plasma in 15 min. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we used longitudinal samples from a group of individuals who underwent intense exercise. A total of 838 proteins were identified, of which, 261 were previously characterized as EV proteins, including classical markers, such as cluster of differentiation (CD)9 and CD81. Quantitative analysis showed low technical variability with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between replicates. The analysis captured differences in relevant EV proteins involved in response to physical activity. Our method enables fast and sensitive fractionation of plasma EVs with low variability, which will facilitate biomarker studies in large clinical cohorts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonvirialized axion search sensitive to Doppler effects in the Milky Way halo

The Axion Dark Matter eXperiment (ADMX) has previously excluded Dine-Fischler-Srednicki- Zhitnisky (DFSZ) axions between 680-790 MHz under the assumption that the dark matter is described by the isothermal halo model. However, the precise nature of the velocity distribution of dark matter is still unknown, and alternative models have been proposed. Here, we report the results of a non-virialized axion search over the mass range 2.81–3.31 µeV, corresponding to the frequency range 680–800 MHz. This analysis marks the most sensitive search for non-virialized axions sensitive to Doppler effects in the Milky Way Halo to date. Accounting for frequency shifts due to the detector’s motion through the Galaxy, we exclude cold flow relic axions with a velocity dispersion of $\mathscr{O}$(10 -7 )c with 95% confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

White paper on light sterile neutrino searches and related phenomenology

This white paper provides a comprehensive review of our present understanding of experimental neutrino anomalies that remain unresolved, charting the progress achieved over the last decade at the experimental and phenomenological level, and sets the stage for future programmatic prospects in addressing those anomalies. It is purposed to serve as a guiding and motivational "encyclopedic" reference, with emphasis on needs and options for future exploration that may lead to the ultimate resolution of the anomalies. We see the main experimental, analysis, and theory-driven thrusts that will be essential to achieving this goal being: 1) Cover all anomaly sectors -- given the unresolved nature of all four canonical anomalies, it is imperative to support all pillars of a diverse experimental portfolio, source, reactor, decay-at-rest, decay-in-flight, and other methods/sources, to provide complementary probes of and increased precision for new physics explanations; 2) Pursue diverse signatures -- it is imperative that experiments make design and analysis choices that maximize sensitivity to as broad an array of these potential new physics signatures as possible; 3) Deepen theoretical engagement -- priority in the theory community should be placed on development of standard and beyond standard models relevant to all four short-baseline anomalies and the development of tools for efficient tests of these models with existing and future experimental datasets; 4) Openly share data -- Fluid communication between the experimental and theory communities will be required, which implies that both experimental data releases and theoretical calculations should be publicly available; and 5) Apply robust analysis techniques -- Appropriate statistical treatment is crucial to assess the compatibility of data sets within the context of any given model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inhomogeneous energy injection in the 21-cm power spectrum: Sensitivity to dark matter decay

The 21-cm signal provides a novel avenue to measure the thermal state of the Universe during cosmic dawn and reionization (redshifts z ~ 5–30), and thus to probe energy injection from decaying or annihilating dark matter (DM). These DM processes are inherently inhomogeneous: both decay and annihilation are density-dependent, and furthermore, the fraction of injected energy that is deposited at each point depends on the gas ionization and density, leading to further anisotropies in absorption and propagation. In this work, we develop a new framework for modeling the impact of spatially inhomogeneous energy injection and deposition during cosmic dawn, accounting for ionization and baryon density dependence, as well as the attenuation of propagating photons. We showcase how this first completely inhomogeneous treatment affects the predicted 21-cm power spectrum in the presence of exotic sources of energy injection, and forecast the constraints that upcoming HERA measurements of the 21-cm power spectrum will set on DM decays to photons and to electron/positron pairs. These projected constraints considerably surpass those derived from CMB and Lyman-a measurements, and for decays to electron/positron pairs they exceed all existing constraints in the sub-GeV mass range, reaching lifetimes of ~10 28 s. Our analysis demonstrates the unprecedented sensitivity of 21-cm cosmology to exotic sources of energy injection during the cosmic dark ages. Our code, dm21cm, includes all these effects and is publicly available in an accompanying release.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗