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DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Topological Defects in Lamellar Phases through Contour Analysis of Complex Wave Fields

Lamellar phases frequently contain structural imperfections that significantly affect their behaviors and properties. Our previous research successfully reconstructed real-space configurations of defective lamellar phases from diffuse scattering patterns, indicating the presence of phase vortices as a potential method for identifying topological defects disrupting the smectic ordering. Here, this report presents a mathematical framework using regularized wave fields to represent defective lamellar structures in real space. Phase singularities, resulting from the interference of random waves and indicating lamellar order disruption, are identified through a contour integral. These wave fields, derived from coherent scattering in reciprocal space, were validated via computational benchmarks analyzing small-angle neutron scattering data from AOT surfactant solutions, facilitating further statistical analysis of the defects. Our study highlights the potential to extract meaningful information about topological defects in lyotropic phases by inversely analyzing experimentally measured two-point static correlations. Our method allows for detailed structural analysis of various lyotropic phases, both particulate and nonparticulate, in their quiescent states and facilitates quantitative investigation of defects’ role in phase transitions. By integrating small-angle scattering, deep learning, and vortex tangle analysis, our comprehensive approach shows promise in addressing complex challenges in the structural analysis of soft matter systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis of a series of rare-earth-based multi-anion chalcogenide iodides RE 3 Si 2 Se x S 8− x I (RE = La, Ce, Pr, and Nd) using the flux-assisted boron–chalcogen mixture method

Single crystals and polycrystalline powders of rare earth mixed chalcogenide iodides La 3 Si 2 Se 1.21 S 6.79 I, Ce 3 Si 2 Se 1.39 S 6.61 I, Pr 3 Si 2 Se 1.22 S 6.78 I, and Nd 3 Si 2 Se 1.18 S 6.82 I were prepared using the reactive flux-assisted boron–chalcogen mixture (BCM) method at 850 °C. All compounds crystallized in the monoclinic crystal system, space group C2/c (space group number 15). The series adopts the La 3 Si 2 O 8 Cl structure type, containing isolated SiQ 4 tetrahedra connected by REQ 8 (RE = La, Ce, Pr and Nd) polyhedra; this arrangement creates tunnels that are filled by I atoms. The partial substitution of S by Se was carried out to modulate the optical properties. Phase pure samples and uniform solid solutions were obtained for all compositions as determined using powder X-ray diffraction patterns. Polycrystalline powders were used for physical property measurements, including magnetic susceptibility and UV-Vis diffuse reflectance. The solid-state UV-Vis data for the polycrystalline La 3 Si 2 Se 1.21 S 6.79 I, Ce 3 Si 2 Se 1.39 S 6.61 I, and Pr 3 Si 2 Se 1.22 S 6.78 I samples revealed band gaps of E g = 2.5(1), 2.2(1), and 2.3(1) eV, typical of semiconductors. Magnetic measurements indicated that Ce 3 Si 2 Se 1.39 S 6.61 I and Nd 3 Si 2 Se 1.18 S 6.82 I exhibit paramagnetic behavior with slightly negative Weiss constants θ = −25 and −38. The photoluminescence spectrum of Ce 3 Si 2 Se 1.39 S 6.61 I exhibits a broad emission band around ∼493 nm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Approach for the Aluminum-clad Dry Storage Pilot using HFIR Fuel

To confirm that the dry storage of aluminum-clad research reactor spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) will remain within the safety envelope after applied drying schemes and that the resulting evolution of the gas space composition, temperature, and pressure conditions are understood, a dry storage pilot project is being established. The pilot will incorporate an instrumented lid for discrete interval or for on-demand gas composition and temperature monitoring of two DOE Standard Canisters (DSCs) loaded with three High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) inner cores per DSC. Each DSC would be subjected to a separate alternative candidate drying scheme. Canisters will undergo 1 to 5 years of monitoring, including internal temperature and gas sampling to track pressure and composition changes. This report outlines the approach for modeling the ASNF-in-canister behavior in terms of evolving gas space conditions for the ASNF dry storage pilot using HFIR fuel. The ASNF has an adherent surface oxyhydroxide layer comprised of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Three-dimensional multi-physics computational fluid dynamics simulations will be executed to compute the thermal field within the DSC and provide inputs to a chemical model employed to compute pressure buildup as hydrogen is generated in the system. Implemented in Cantera, the chemical model solves gas phase and aluminum oxyhydroxide surface-mediated radiolysis reactions. Gas phase reactions are sourced from Wittman and Hanson (2015), whereas surface-mediated reactions are incorporated by fitting experimental data using an optimization algorithm (Abboud, 2023). Water radiolysis reactions from Wren and Ball (2001) are adopted with modifications as described in Abboud (2023c). Understanding the effect of the hydrogen buildup over time is important for long-term storage safety considerations. Modeling results will include the canister pressure, temperature, and composition evolution from the initial helium backfill with the addition of radiolytically-evolved chemical species (e.g., hydrogen and oxygen). The specific HFIR cores for the pilot program have not yet been selected, and the overall design is still in development. The CFD-chemical model used for this work will be based on prior models with necessary updates to allow for improved accuracy and efficiency. The experimental data obtained from the HFIR demonstration will be used to improve and validate the computational models to predict the ASNF-in-canister behavior.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

CCDC 2391276: Experimental Crystal Structure Determination

An entry from the Cambridge Structural Database, the world’s repository for small molecule crystal structures. The entry contains experimental data from a crystal diffraction study. The deposited dataset for this entry is freely available from the CCDC and typically includes 3D coordinates, cell parameters, space group, experimental conditions and quality measures.

(mu-2-[fluorobis(pyridin-2-yl)methyl]-7-[fluorobis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Destabilizing high-capacity high entropy hydrides via earth abundant substitutions: From predictions to experimental validation

The vast chemical space of high entropy alloys (HEAs) makes trial-and-error experimental approaches for materials discovery intractable and often necessitates data-driven and/or first principles computational insights to successfully target materials with desired properties. In the context of materials discovery for hydrogen storage applications, a theoretical prediction-experimental validation approach can vastly accelerate the search for substitution strategies to destabilize high-capacity hydrides based on benchmark HEAs, e.g. TiVNbCr alloys. Here, in this study, machine learning predictions, corroborated by density functional theory calculations, predict substantial hydride destabilization with increasing substitution of earth-abundant Fe content in the (TiVNb) 75 Cr 25-x Fe x system. The as-prepared alloys crystallize in a single-phase bcc lattice for limited Fe content x < 7, while larger Fe content favors the formation of a secondary C14 Laves phase intermetallic. Short range order for alloys with x < 7 can be well described by a random distribution of atoms within the bcc lattice without lattice distortion. Hydrogen absorption experiments performed on selected alloys validate the predicted thermodynamic destabilization of the corresponding fcc hydrides and demonstrate promising lifecycle performance through reversible absorption/desorption. This demonstrates the potential of computationally expedited hydride discovery and points to further opportunities for optimizing bcc alloy ↔ fcc hydrides for practical hydrogen storage applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Two transitions in complex eigenvalue statistics: Hermiticity and integrability breaking

Open quantum systems have complex energy eigenvalues which are expected to follow non-Hermitian random matrix statistics, when chaotic, or two-dimensional (2d) Poisson statistics, when integrable. We investigate the spectral properties of a many-body quantum spin chain, i.e., the Hermitian Heisenberg model with imaginary disorder. Its rich complex eigenvalue statistics is found to separately break both Hermiticity and integrability at different scales of the disorder strength. With no disorder, the system is integrable and Hermitian, with spectral statistics corresponding to the 1d Poisson point process. At very small disorder, we find a transition from 1d Poisson statistics to an effective D -dimensional Poisson point process, showing Hermiticity breaking. At intermediate disorder, we find integrability breaking, as inferred from the statistics matching that of non-Hermitian complex symmetric random matrices in class AI † . For large disorder, as the spins align, we recover the expected integrability (now in the non-Hermitian setup), indicated by 2d Poisson statistics. These conclusions are based on fitting the spin-chain data of numerically generated nearest- and next-to-nearest-neighbor spacing distributions to an effective 2d Coulomb gas description at inverse temperature β . We confirm that such an effective description of random matrices also applies in classes AI † and AII † up to next-to-nearest-neighbor spacings. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Akemann, Gernot (ORCID:0000000217104258)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional Variational Autoencoder-based Unsupervised Learning for Power Systems Faults

Classification of power system event data is a growing need, particularly where non-protective relaying-based sensors are used to monitor grid performance. Given the high burden of obtaining event data with appropriate labeling, an unsupervised approach is highly valuable. This approach enables using event data without labeling, which is far easier to obtain. This paper presents an unsupervised learning method to classify and label transients observed in the distribution grid. A Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) was developed for this purpose. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using the transient data generated from the simulations. The simulation data is used to train the CVAE that identifies different faults as different clusters in the latent space. The clusters are then used as the foundation model to categorize the real-world data.

Alam, Maksudul↗

DOE OSTI2024

BCSR on GPU: A Way Forward Extreme-scale Graph Processing on Accelerator-enabled Frontier Supercomputer

Handling large graphs in a distributed environment requires effective partitioning across processors and efficient management of local partitions. In 2D partitioning, local graphs often become too sparse, making memory-efficient data structures crucial. Using the Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) format wastes space, especially for > 83% of vertices with empty edges for the sparse graphs. This study explores bit-CSR (BCSR), a modified CSR representation, on GPUs to reduce memory usage in graph computations. We achieved 16.67% memory savings on a sparse rmat dataset with 268 million vertices and 357 million edges, without performance degradation, supported by both theoretical and experimental storage savings of 33%. However, we observed a 1.7× slowdown in degree lookup times due to bitwise operations on AMD CPUs. This analysis highlights the potential of BCSR on GPUs for improving Graph500 benchmark performance on GPU-accelerated systems, such as the Frontier supercomputer.

Sattar, Naw Safrin↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-driven neutrino diagnostics and radiation-hard beam instrumentation for next-generation neutrino experiments

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) at Fermilab will deliver a high-intensity, multi-megawatt neutrino beam to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), enabling precision tests of the three-neutrino paradigm, CP violation searches, neutrino mass ordering determination, and supernova neutrino studies. To accelerate DUNE’s physics reach and ensure robust beam operations, we propose an integrated AI-driven framework with real-time diagnostics and radiation-hardened instrumentation. At its core is a Real-Time Beam Integrity Monitor using a physics-informed Digital Twin. By reconstructing pion phase space from muon profiles and exploiting magnetic horn optic linearity, it enables spill-by-spill beam correction and flux stabilization. By using this approach, flux-related systematics could be reduced from 5% to 1%, potentially accelerating the discovery of CP violations by four to six years. Complementing this, a US–Japan R&D effort will deploy a LAPPD-based muon monitor in the NuMI beamline. ToF measurements can be acquired with picosecond precision using this radiation-hard system, enhancing sensitivity to horn chromatic effects. Simulations confirm strong response to these effects. ML models predict beam quality and horn current to sub-percent accuracy from muon data, enhancing anomaly detection and stability. This scalable, AI-enabled strategy improves beam fidelity, reduces systematics, and sets a new standard for high-power accelerator operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-driven neutrino diagnostics and radiation-hard beam instrumentation for next-generation neutrino experiments

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inferring Stochastic Rates from Heterogeneous Snapshots of Particle Positions

Many imaging techniques for biological systems—like fixation of cells coupled with fluorescence microscopy—provide sharp spatial resolution in reporting locations of individuals at a single moment in time but also destroy the dynamics they intend to capture. In this study, these snapshot observations contain no information about individual trajectories, but still encode information about movement and demographic dynamics, especially when combined with a well-motivated biophysical model. The relationship between spatially evolving populations and single-moment representations of their collective locations is well-established with partial differential equations (PDEs) and their inverse problems. However, experimental data is commonly a set of locations whose number is insufficient to approximate a continuous-in-space PDE solution. Here, motivated by popular subcellular imaging data of gene expression, we embrace the stochastic nature of the data and investigate the mathematical foundations of parametrically inferring demographic rates from snapshots of particles undergoing birth, diffusion, and death in a nuclear or cellular domain. Toward inference, we rigorously derive a connection between individual particle paths and their presentation as a Poisson spatial process. Using this framework, we investigate the properties of the resulting inverse problem and study factors that affect quality of inference. One pervasive feature of this experimental regime is the presence of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Rather than being a hindrance, we show that cell-to-cell geometric heterogeneity can increase the quality of inference on dynamics for certain parameter regimes. Altogether, the results serve as a basis for more detailed investigations of subcellular spatial patterns of RNA molecules and other stochastically evolving populations that can only be observed for single instants in their time evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonlinear Topological Photonics: Capturing Nonlinear Dynamics and Optical Thermodynamics

Combining multiple optical resonators or engineering dispersion of complex media has provided an effective method for demonstrating topological physics controlling photons in unprecedented ways such as unidirectional light propagation and spatially localized modes between an interface or on a corner. Further, adding nonlinear responses to those topological photonic systems has enabled achieving diverse phases of photons in both space and time, allowing for more functionalities in photonic devices that provide a new playground for studying dynamic features of nonlinear topological systems. However, most methods for describing nonlinear topological photonic systems rely on linear topological theories, making it challenging to accurately characterize the topology of nonlinear systems. Thus, substantial efforts have focused on rigorously describing nonlinear topological phases and developing effective tools to analyze nonlinear topological effects. Meanwhile, coupled multimode optical waveguides with nonlinear dynamic responses provide an excellent platform for the statistical description of photons, opening a new paradigm called “optical thermodynamics”. This review will introduce the basic concepts of nonlinear topological photonics and the recent development of theoretical approaches focusing on data-driven approaches for creating phase diagrams as well as the spectral localizer framework and the pseudospectrum method for understanding optical nonlinearities in topological systems. In addition, the new concept of optical thermodynamics will be introduced with some recent theoretical works.

Topological photonics↗

DOE OSTI2025

QCD Predictions for Physical Multimeson Scattering Amplitudes

We use lattice QCD calculations of the finite-volume spectra of systems of two and three mesons to determine, for the first time, three-particle scattering amplitudes with physical quark masses. Our results are for combinations of 𝜋 + and 𝐾 + , at a lattice spacing 𝑎 = 0.063 fm, and in the isospin-symmetric limit. We also obtain accurate results for maximal-isospin two-meson amplitudes, with those for 𝜋 + ⁢𝐾 + and 2⁢𝐾 + being the first determinations at the physical point. Dense lattice spectra are obtained using the stochastic Laplacian-Heaviside method, and the analysis leading to scattering amplitudes is done using the relativistic finite-volume formalism. Results are compared to chiral perturbation theory and to phenomenological fits to experimental data, finding good agreement.

hadron-hadron interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

The ICARUS light detection system (Fermilab Italian summer student program 2023)

The ICARUS T600 detector is the largest Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber ever used on a neutrino beam, and it acts as the far detector of the Short Baseline Neutrino program at Fermilab. Its purpose is the study of the possibility of the existence of a fourth sterile neutrino in the O(eV2) mass range that could take part in the neutrino oscillations. The light detection system of the ICARUS detector plays the role of localising in space and time the neutrino interactions taking place inside the detector, collecting the argon scintillation photons generated when an event occurs. This light detection system also has a crucial role in the trigger system and the rejection of the huge amount of background cosmic events, working together with the trigger request signals sent by the beam complex. In August 2023 part of the cables that are used to carry the signals from the photomultipliers to the electronics were replaced with a new model, because a deterioration of the quality of the signal inside the cables had previously been observed. An analysis of the performance of the new cables was carried out, comparing laser run data collected before and after the change of the cable model, and it was proved that the introduction of the new cables lead to a general improvement of the quality of the signals reaching the electronics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗