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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the performance and faradaic efficiency of solid oxide electrolysis cells using doped barium zirconate perovskite electrolytes

Y-doped BaZrO 3 (BaZr 1 x Y x O 3 δ , or “BZY”), a proton-conducting ceramic featuring high bulk conductivity and good chemical stability, is a promising electrolyte material for solid oxide electrolysis cells. Further doping with Ce and/or Yb (creating materials “BCZY” and “BCZYYb”) can improve conductivity and sintering properties, but at significant penalty to cells’ faradaic efficiency (FE). Studies have proposed that reduction of lattice Ce can occur in the hydrogen electrode, which consumes some hydrogen produced by the hydrogen evolution reaction, leading to decreased FE. Despite studies suggesting this phenomenon, the mechanism is largely unknown. In this work, we developed a multiphysics model to study the transport of multiple defect species and the performance of BZY, BCZY, and BCZYYb, capturing the tradeoff between enhanced performance at the cost of FE for BCZY and BCZYYb electrolytes compared to BZY. We also found that increasing the water content of the anode gas supply lowers the current output of the cell but results in better FE. The model, which uses several parameters previously unavailable in the literature, was validated to experiments varying temperature, steam water content, and electrolyte material, as well as two performance metrics (performance curves and FE). Results verify and explain observed trends, informing future work on Ce-doped BZY electrolytes.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensor Recommendations for Long Term Monitoring of the F-Area Seepage Basins

In mid-2018, a new paradigm for long-term monitoring was developed after of decade of applied research projects funded by the Department of Energy’s office of Environmental Management Technology Development program. The program at SRNL was focused on transitioning complex environmental waste sites from active to passive remediations strategies. A key result of these studies was that the use of enhanced attenuation approaches at radiologically contaminated sites will result in the creation of secondary source areas in the subsurface that will require monitoring for decades. Alternative monitoring approaches are being developed and tested at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility, the new paradigm provides innovative solutions that will significantly lower costs of monitoring through the coupling of data collection, machine learning and deterministic groundwater modeling. The foundation of this approach is a well-optimized network of sensors for measuring hydrogeochemical master variables that control, and therefore act as indicators of groundwater contaminant transport. By monitoring changes in the controlling master variables over time arising from geological and environmental shifts, predictive modelling can assist with identifying new strategies for ensuring regulatory requirements are met if trends toward conditions for potential remobilization of attenuated contaminants are detected. In this report, we evaluated commercially available single parameter sensor platforms (e.g., temperature/depth) and configurable multi-parameter sensor platforms (e.g., pH, oxidation-reduction potential, temperature, depth, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity). Each was scored using an optimization function based on how well the system supports the proposed long-term monitoring paradigm, in general, and the site-specific conditions at F-Area, in particular. Several viable sensor systems were identified. Of these, a combined platform including the In-Situ Aqua TROLL 500 multi-parameter sensor platform and the In-Situ temperature/depth sensor had the highest rating and was identified as the most suitable candidate for installation and monitoring of the master variables and potentiometric surface that control groundwater contaminant plumes emanating from the F-Area Seepage Basins. The discussion of recommended potential deployment locations builds upon recommendations made by Denham et al (2019).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contact pressure analysis to allow improved design for the clearing plate in a biomass comminution system

For biomass processing systems, feedstocks with small but equal sizes can improve flowability and thermochemical outputs. The Crumbler rotary shear system was designed to achieve such ideal feedstocks to reduce costs and energy throughout the biomass supply chain. Improving the wear resistance of major components in this system is important to decrease the cost. Accelerating the feedstock flow through the rotary shear machine plays an equivalent role of improving its efficiency. An analytical analysis and a finite-element analysis of the stationary clearing plate are presented in this work. Here, these tools are used to investigate the effect of contact surface curvature on the impact pressure. The optimized new clearing plate design is expected to improve the component’s lifetime and wood chips flowability. The field tests confirm that the trend of the new clearing plate design guided by FEA. The optimization method, model verification, and validation experience applied in this work can also be applied to other static components with similar simple contact wear problems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Commercial Composite Power Pole Performance

The objective of this report is to assess the performance of composite poles, considering price, durability, resilience to the effects of extreme weather, ongoing maintenance costs, ease of repair, preplacement or upgrading giving special consideration to performance in watersheds and flood prone environments. The report starts with a description of the history and functional requirements of power pole. This is followed by a survey of existing composite pole manufacturing processes with a survey of existing knowledge base answering the above performance requirements. For the information not currently available to the public, an overview of testing procedures is outlined. Finally, an overview of emerging trends in composites and potential opportunities to address technical and economic shortfalls is proposed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Packaged Combined Heat and Power Technology Overview and Market Profile

Combined heat and power (CHP), sometimes referred to as cogeneration, is an efficient and clean approach to generating electric power and useful thermal energy onsite from a single fuel source, offering reliable and affordable energy services to businesses and institutions. Furthermore, CHP provides a cost effective opportunity to improve the environmental footprint and resilience of industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. CHP equipment can be custom-engineered or installed as a predesigned and assembled package. A packaged CHP system is a standardized, pre-engineered system that includes all equipment, piping, wiring, and ancillary components to deliver electricity and thermal energy to a host facility with minimal onsite engineering and design time. Packaged CHP systems can be shipped as single or multiple modules with standard interconnections (e.g., fuel; electrical; thermal—hot water, steam, and/or chilled water), which simplifies installation and reduces the costs associated with the project. Most containerized or single packaged CHP system offerings range from 10 kW to 3 MW in capacity. Packaged CHP systems are extending the operating, efficiency, and emissions benefits of CHP to nontraditional markets in commercial, institutional, multifamily, light manufacturing, government, and military applications. These markets tend to be served by smaller systems (less than 5 MW) that are conducive to pre-engineered packaging and/or modularization. Many of these sectors have limited CHP experience and technical resources to adequately evaluate, install, and maintain onsite CHP systems. The introduction of packaged CHP offerings from experienced CHP Packagers and Solution Providers has accelerated CHP adoption, lowered energy costs, reduced emissions, and strengthened energy resilience in these sectors. In 2019, the US Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Packaged CHP eCatalog to promote increased acceptance of efficient, cost-effective CHP in these applications. The Packaged CHP eCatalog is a web-based, searchable platform that hosts DOE-recognized packaged CHP systems with features designed to reduce economic and performance risks for designers, developers, owners, and facility operators interested in installing CHP. DOE established the Packaged CHP Accelerator at the same time to help launch and publicize the eCatalog, and to validate project performance, cost, and installation time of CHP packages across a variety of applications. Accelerator efforts documented installed cost reductions and installation time reductions of more than 20% for packaged CHP systems over 100 kW compared with custom-engineered systems. The Packaged CHP Accelerator and eCatalog established a peer-to-peer network connecting public and private sector partners including utilities, state energy offices, and energy efficiency program administrators interested in promoting cost-effective, efficient CHP systems, Packagers, and Solution Providers. Feedback from these partners, along with input from DOE’s CHP Technical Assistance Partnerships (CHP TAPs), was critical in understanding the current market for packaged CHP technologies, stimulating investment in these technologies, and guiding future directions for packaged CHP systems and their applications. This report provides background on packaged CHP systems, an overview of their benefits, a profile of current packaged CHP installations, and a summary of future market trends; this report is intended for facility owners, project developers, engineers, policymakers, and other stakeholders looking to increase the adoption of efficient, flexible, and resilient packaged CHP systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fall 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry. This quarter we also provide additional analysis on the domestic content of U.S. PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of long-term light stability of negative charge injected into oxide-nitride-oxide passivation stack of crystalline silicon solar cells

A negatively charged oxide-nitride-oxide stack for field-effect passivation of crystalline silicon solar cells is discussed. The negative charge was injected into the stack by a plasma charge injection technology. Charge stability was studied by exposing samples to AM1.5 simulation visible light and full-spectrum light at temperatures ranging from 55 to 78 °C for up to 300 h. Charge injection and loss were quantified based on shifts in the flatband voltage of capacitance–voltage curves measured with a mercury probe. The most probable mechanism of charge loss was found to be diffusion of negative charged hydrogen atoms through nitride and bottom oxide. The optimum recipe for each layer of the stack was investigated to minimize the loss of injected charge. The flatband voltage decay of the optimized stack was found to fit a power-law trend, suggesting the dispersive transport of hydrogen atoms with a dispersion parameter of ~0.06–0.07. The optimized stack is projected to maintain a negative charge density of about 3.6 × 10 12 cm –2 or more after 25 years of field operation in an environment such as Arizona, which would be sufficient for field-effect passivation under one-sun illumination. Furthermore, the high stability of the negative injected charge makes the plasma charging technology a safer and lower cost alternative to Al 2 O 3 -passivation technology commonly used to passivate p-type surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of a Reduced-Order Extension Spring Model

Adopting reduced order models (ROMs) of springs lowers the computational cost of stronglink simulations. However, ROMs introduce currently unquantified error to such analyses. This study addresses that lack of data by comparing a hexahedral mesh to a commonly used ROM beam mesh. Two types of analyses were performed, a quasi-static displacement-controlled pull and a haversine shock, examining basic spring properties as well as dynamics and stress/strain data. Both tests showed good similarities between the hexahedral and beam meshes, especially when comparing reaction force and stress trends and maximums. Equivalent plastic strain results were not quite as favorable, indicating that the beam model may be less likely to correctly predict spring failure. Despite reducing computation times by over 48 hours in all shock cases, appropriate use of the ROM should carefully balance this advantage with its reduction in accuracy, especially when examining spring failure and outputting variables such as equivalent plastic strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Pathways to Upgrade the US Housing Stock: A Review of the Home Energy Upgrade Literature

The residential buildings sector is responsible for about 20% of total US energy use. In order to achieve climate goals, we need ways to reduce carbon emissions and energy use in this sector. In addition, resiliency, electric grid stability, emergency survivability and other energy and building-related issues are becoming increasingly important challenges. New homes in most of the US meet various energy codes and are reasonably energy efficient. However, the vast majority of energy use is from existing homes that were not required to conform to energy performance requirements. It is becoming imperative to reach as many of these existing homes as possible and find ways to improve their energy-related performance. This must be done in such a way that it meets the needs and desires of homeowners and building occupants, as well as those of the contractors and design professionals engaged in doing the upgrades themselves. Energy retrofits of homes started in the 1970’s in response to the energy crisis, however, these retrofits were very limited in scope and relatively few homes were upgraded. Those homes that have been upgraded generally still have much scope for improvement. A huge effort is needed to get to scale to address the energy use in housing. The target population is effectively every home in the country, whether a large suburban single-family home, or a small downtown apartment. In order to provide a framework for analysis and the basis for plans to get to large-scale retrofits of homes, this literature review summarizes the state-of-the art in the US buildings industry. It identifies where more research, engineering, or technology is needed, as well as relevant industry trends, such as electrification, one-stop shop program design and others. It also examines other key topics, such as availability of financing, minimizing household disruption, and engaging home owners and occupants. This literature review builds on a similar review from several years ago (Less and Walker, 2014). The current review focuses on efforts in the intervening years. This literature review is part of a larger DOE study of deep energy upgrades that includes industry surveys and development of cost-stack analyses. For this review, we gathered data not just from the published literature, but also from practitioners in conjunction with other aspects of the larger DOE study. In some cases, we refer to comments from specific individuals or companies, or refer to specific products by name. This is not intended as an endorsement, but rather to provide clarity on sources of information and examples of relevant technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Dynamics of LiTFSI–Pyrazole Eutectic Solvents

Deep Eutectic Solvents (DESs) have emerged as promising candidates to replace conventional organic solvents in various technological applications due to their low vapor pressure, non-flammability, and ease of preparation at low costs. In particular, Type IV DESs, which are composed of metal salts and hydrogen bond donors, are possible replacements for lithium-ion battery electrolytes. In this study, we investigate the molecular dynamics of solvents of lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) and pyrazole (PYR) at varying LiTFSI:PYR molar ratios (1:2, 1:3, 1:4, 1:5) using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Dispersion (NMRD) and Pulsed Field Gradient (PFG) Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR). PFG NMR reveals composition-dependent diffusion trends, while NMRD provides molecular-level insights into the longitudinal relaxation rate (R 1 = 1/T 1 ). Notably, the LiTFSI:PYR (1:2) sample shows distinct behavior across both techniques, exhibiting enhanced relaxation rates and lower self-diffusion for 1 H compared to the other nuclei ( 19 F and 7 Li), suggestive of stronger and more efficient Li + –pyrazole interactions, as confirmed by the modeling of the relaxation profiles. Our study advances understanding of ion dynamics in azole-based eutectic solvents, supporting their potential use in safer battery electrolytes.

FFC-NMR↗
DOE OSTI2025

House Advantage or House of Cards? Stacking the Deck for Data Videos Leads to Null Results: Preprint

Videos are becoming a ubiquitous means of sharing information on social media platforms. In response, data videos - short clips combining visualization with dynamic storytelling, audio descriptions, and spatial referencing - have gained popularity for communicating data. These affordances suggest that data videos might communicate data patterns, trends, and concepts more effectively than static visualizations, enhancing comprehension. However, existing research has not systematically tested this claim. To address this gap, we conducted three controlled studies to measure comprehension differences between data videos and static visualizations. Despite leveraging visual cues and audio explanations, no data video led to significantly better comprehension than an analogous static visualization. Our results suggest data videos are not categorically better and that future research should examine the tradeoffs between their engagement benefits and costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Transportation-Energy Systems Modeling

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of global transportation energy use coming from petroleum product. After over a century of petroleum dominance, however, many leading experts anticipate major electrification trends that could disrupt the transportation energy demand landscape. These changes in electricity demand complement profound changes happening within electric power supply systems, including integration of variable renewables, distributed generation and storage, and greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. This broader context underscores the importance of understanding how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible EV charging to more cost-effectively balance demand and supply. This talk provides an overview of recent findings on infrastructure requirements to support EV adoption, integration challenges and the impact of EV on power systems, and opportunities to leverage flexible (or smart) EV charging to support power system planning and operations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States: Comparing Biofuels Growth in Two Models - GCAM and BSM

Scenarios for deep decarbonization rely on biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, often including negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. Despite the prominence of biomass in many deep decarbonization pathways, critical questions remain about biomass allocation, effects of transportation electrification, the pace of growth, and implications for agriculture and land use. We address these questions through a unique comparison of carbon pricing effects on the growth of biomass utilization and its effects on land use in the United States by comparing results from a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM], with results from a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model [BSM]. We contribute to model comparison efforts by analyzing the biomass deployment needed for a scenario consistent with a "Middle of the Road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP2] and a representative concentration pathway of 2.6 W/m2. The GCAM scenarios solve for global equilibrium conditions that are consistent with this pathway, including demands for biomass across all economic sectors and representing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a technology option. The BSM scenarios assess those biomass and biofuel results for the United States and identify challenges associated with that pace and amount of expansion. In the scenario analysis, we harmonize key factors such as carbon price trajectory, domestic ethanol fuel demand, ethanol blending, and arable land availability, and vary them in both models. In GCAM, we vary the carbon price, transportation electrification, ethanol blending constraints, and arable land availability inputs and the value of the carbon in land; in BSM, in addition to directly inputting certain GCAM results, we vary the maximum rate of biorefinery construction, flexibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives such as tax credits and renewable identification number payments. The selected carbon price trajectory results in a rapid increase in biofuel production in the United States, reaching about 9.4 EJ/year in 2060 in the highest scenario analyzed in GCAM. Results differ between the two models in timing and ultimate quantity of biomass and biofuel production. GCAM biofuel quantities generally exceed BSM amounts because CCS is applied to biofuel pathways in GCAM, and because of differences in capacity expansion and related dynamics of land allocation, biomass production, and price dynamics. These dynamics include rapid biorefinery capacity expansion in high demand cases. To satisfy this biomass demand, GCAM rapidly equilibrates land allocation, but the BSM limits the rate at which this re-allocation can occur. A further contrast with the equilibrium approach in GCAM is that the BSM represents a delay between planting and harvesting woody biomass resources. As a result of these model contrasts, feedstock costs in BSM increase more than in GCAM, and the absence of CCS in the BSM also reduces the relative economic attractiveness of biofuels production. The bottlenecks, lags, and price increases also lead to potential for volatility in feedstock price and land allocation to biomass in the BSM. GCAM has more biomass production than BSM in all scenarios, partly because of the broader, economy-wide coverage of GCAM, in contrast to BSM's exclusive focus on biofuels. In both models, trends like those of biofuels production were observed for biomass production: minimal growth without a carbon price and policy incentives, and increases with a carbon price, particularly with carbon capture and storage, because the inputs assume that biopower and biofuels decrease greenhouse gas emissions. In high policy scenarios, biomass demand is high, and the consequent high biomass prices due to the land re-allocation bottleneck in the BSM limit biofuel production even if the biorefinery capacity is expanded. However, because biomass prices do not increase as much in the low policy scenario, growth is slower and the land-reallocation bottleneck no longer dominates, such that the effect of increased capacity can be seen. Across both the models, a change in assumptions from less to more land availability increases biofuel production in both GCAM and BSM, as the upward pressure on feedstock price and volatility are both reduced.

biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status and prospects of lithium iron phosphate manufacturing in the lithium battery industry

Abstract Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO 4 , LFP) has long been a key player in the lithium battery industry for its exceptional stability, safety, and cost-effectiveness as a cathode material. Major car makers (e.g., Tesla, Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota) have either incorporated or are considering the use of LFP-based batteries in their latest electric vehicle (EV) models. Despite LFP’s well-researched status as a cathode material, it is expected to fulfill additional demands in electric vehicle applications, such as fast-charging capabilities, wide temperature range adaptability, and higher energy density. This perspective examines the LFP supply chain, synthetic approaches, manufacturing processes, market trends, recent advancements, and evolving demands to better understand its future role in the EV market. Graphical abstract

Lu, Yanying↗