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At least 379 records · Page 21

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics potential of the DUNE experiment

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is determined, based on a full simulation, reconstruction, and event selection of the far detector and a full simulation and parameterized analysis of the near detector. Detailed uncertainties due to the flux prediction, neutrino interaction model, and detector effects are included. DUNE will resolve the neutrino mass ordering to a precision of 5σ, for all δ CP values, after 2 years of running with the nominal detector design and beam configuration. It has the potential to observe charge-parity violation in the neutrino sector to a precision of 3σ (5σ) after an exposure of 5 (10) years, for 50% of all δ CP values. It will also make precise measurements of other parameters governing long-baseline neutrino oscillation, and after an exposure of 15 years will achieve a similar sensitivity to sin 2 2$θ_{13}$ to current reactor experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessment of DSN Communication Coverage for Space Missions to Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

A communication coverage gap exists for Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas. This communication coverage gap is on the southern hemisphere, centered at approximate latitude of -47deg and longitude of -45deg. The area of this communication gap varies depending on the altitude from the Earth s surface. There are no current planetary space missions that fall within the DSN communication gap because planetary bodies in the Solar system lie near the ecliptic plane. However, some asteroids orbits are not confined to the ecliptic plane. In recent years, Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) have passed within 100,000 km of the Earth. NASA s future space exploration goals include a manned mission to asteroids. It is important to ensure reliable and redundant communication coverage/capabilities for manned space missions to dangerous asteroids that make a sequence of close Earth encounters. In this paper, we will describe simulations performed to determine whether near-Earth objects (NEO) that have been classified as PHAs fall within the DSN communication coverage gap. In the study, we reviewed literature for a number of PHAs, generated binary ephemeris for selected PHAs using JPL s HORIZONS tool, and created their trajectories using Satellite Took Kit (STK). The results show that some of the PHAs fall within DSN communication coverage gap. This paper presents the simulation results and our analyses

Kegege, Obadiah↗

Bioenergy sorghum’s deep roots: A key to sustainable biomass production on annual cropland

Abstract Bioenergy sorghum has high biomass yield potential, drought resilience, good nitrogen use efficiency, and a root system that contributes to the accumulation of soil organic carbon. In this study, field grown bioenergy sorghum root systems were analyzed during the growing season to characterize their depth, biomass, morphology, anatomy, and gene expression profiles. Bioenergy sorghum roots grew continuously during a 155‐day growing season producing ~175 nodal roots, accumulating ~7 Mg of dry biomass per hectare, and reaching >2 m deep in the soil profile. Nodal roots within 20 cm of the stem were 1–5 mm in diameter, whereas roots deeper in soil profiles were enriched in lateral roots with small diameters (~30–500 µm) enabling growth through soil macropores. In older field‐grown plants, roots with intact endodermal, vascular and inner root tissues were surrounded by degraded or aerenchyma‐filled epidermal and cortical cell layers. Transcriptome analysis of nodal, surface, and deep roots identified >2,500 differentially expressed genes involved in root growth, transport, adaptation, defense, and AMF–root interaction. Deep roots (180–240 cm) differentially expressed genes that regulate lateral root growth. Surface roots (0–20 cm) located mid‐row differentially expressed genes involved in nitrate transport, whereas ammonium transport genes were expressed in surface and deep roots and genes involved in phosphate transport were expressed in nodal, surface, and deep roots. Overall, bioenergy sorghum's long growing season enables root systems to grow deeper and accumulate more biomass than annual grain crops such as maize, attributes that could help restore annual cropland soil organic carbon levels and improve soil productivity. Deep roots active in nutrient transport are positioned to take‐up fertilizer leached deep into soil profiles mitigating potential nutrient run‐off. Bioenergy sorghum's large and deep root system is a key to sustainable production of biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts on annual cropland.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Sharing is caring: An extensive analysis of parameter-based transfer learning for the prediction of building thermal dynamics

In recent years deep neural networks have been proposed as a lightweight data-driven model to capture high-dimensional, nonlinear physical processes to predict building thermal responses. However, the need of a large amount of data for the training process of deep neural networks clashes with the potential limited data availability in most existing or new buildings. Transfer learning aims to enhance the performance of a target learner exploiting knowledge from related and similar environments. This study conducted a suite of experiments that leveraged 250 data-driven models based on a synthetic dataset of a building archetype to study the influence of data availability, energy efficiency level, occupancy and climate for the transfer process of thermal dynamics. The performance of the transfer learning process was compared against a classical machine learning approach. Here, the results suggest that building thermal dynamics can be effectively transferred under the same climatic conditions, increasing performance when dealing with different occupancy schedules, efficiency levels and low data availability. Furthermore, the paper compares the performance of both transfer learning and machine learning approaches in an online fashion, to support the implementation in real-world deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using Ultrasound Image Augmentation and Ensemble Predictions to Prevent Machine-Learning Model Overfitting

Deep learning predictive models have the potential to simplify and automate medical imaging diagnostics by lowering the skill threshold for image interpretation. However, this requires predictive models that are generalized to handle subject variability as seen clinically. Here, we highlight methods to improve test accuracy of an image classifier model for shrapnel identification using tissue phantom image sets. Using a previously developed image classifier neural network—termed ShrapML—blind test accuracy was less than 70% and was variable depending on the training/test data setup, as determined by a leave one subject out (LOSO) holdout methodology. Introduction of affine transformations for image augmentation or MixUp methodologies to generate additional training sets improved model performance and overall accuracy improved to 75%. Further improvements were made by aggregating predictions across five LOSO holdouts. This was done by bagging confidences or predictions from all LOSOs or the top-3 LOSO confidence models for each image prediction. Top-3 LOSO confidence bagging performed best, with test accuracy improved to greater than 85% accuracy for two different blind tissue phantoms. This was confirmed by gradient-weighted class activation mapping to highlight that the image classifier was tracking shrapnel in the image sets. Overall, data augmentation and ensemble prediction approaches were suitable for creating more generalized predictive models for ultrasound image analysis, a critical step for real-time diagnostic deployment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Concurrent System Engineering and Risk Reduction for Dual-Band (RF/optical) Spacecraft Communications

This paper describes a system engineering approach to examining the potential for combining elements of a deep-space RF and optical communications payload, for the purpose of reducing the size, weight and power burden on the spacecraft and the mission. Figures of merit and analytical methodologies are discussed to conduct trade studies, and several potential technology integration strategies are presented. Finally, the NASA Integrated Radio and Optical Communications (iROC) project is described, which directly addresses the combined RF and optical approach.

Fielhauer, Karl, B.↗

Applications of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Systems for Deep Space Science Missions

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) systems occupy a unique area in the space propulsion technology landscape, due to their ability to combine moderate-to-high thrust systems normally seen in chemical propulsion systems with specific impulses that are higher than those of more traditional chemical propulsion systems. Thus, NTP systems have the potential to greatly expand our access to deep space and can enable or enhance capabilities for a variety of missions that achieve science goals as outlined in NASA’s decadal surveys. This paper leverages previous work performed on applying NTP systems for multiple science missions. It also expands the mission portfolio to additional NTP-powered science mission profiles, evaluating the system performance benefits delivered by this propulsion option. This paper will also outline efforts to improve the fidelity of the existing NTP design concepts and vehicles that are utilized, leveraging previous work on nuclear propulsion systems for human-Mars missions to enhance the fidelity of results obtained from previous science mission concept studies – specifically Triton lander, solar polar orbiter, and the interstellar medium probe missions. The work outlined in this paper will also examine additional missions that have been highlighted in the recent decadal surveys, which may include robotic missions to the ice giant Uranus, robotic missions to Venus, and missions to various Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

K A Polzin↗

Impact of improved energy resolution on DUNE sensitivity to neutrino non-standard interactions

The full physics potential of the next-generation Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is still being explored. In particular, there have been some recent studies on the possibility of improving DUNE’s neutrino energy reconstruction. The main motivation is that a better determination of the neutrino energy in an event-by-event basis will translate into an improved measurement of the Dirac C P phase and other neutrino oscillation parameters. To further motivate studies and improvements on the neutrino energy reconstruction, we evaluate the impact of energy resolution at DUNE on an illustrative new physics scenario, viz. non-standard interactions (NSI) of neutrinos with matter. We show that a better energy resolution in comparison to the ones given in the DUNE conceptual and technical design reports may significantly enhance the experimental sensitivity to NSI, particularly when degeneracies are present. While a better reconstruction of the first oscillation peak helps disentangling standard C P effects from those coming from NSIs, we find that the second oscillation peak also plays a nontrivial role in improving DUNE’s sensitivity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hexagonal boron nitride: Epitaxial growth and device applications

As a newest family member of the III-nitrides, BN is considered amongst the remaining frontiers in wide energy bandgap semiconductors with potentials for technologically significant applications in deep UV (DUV) optoelectronics, solid-state neutron detectors, electron emitters, single photon emitters, switching/memory devices, and super-capacitors. It was shown that it is possible to produce h-BN epilayers with high hexagonal phase purity, UV transparency, and film stoichiometry by employing nitrogen-rich growth conditions. The quasi-2D nature of h-BN supports unusually strong optical transitions near the band edge and a large exciton binding energy on the order of 0.7 eV. Since the isotope of B-10 has a large capture cross-section for thermal neutrons, h-BN is an ideal material for the fabrication of solid-state neutron detectors for special nuclear materials detection, well and geothermal logging, and medical imaging applications. Freestanding B-10 enriched h-BN (h- 10 BN) epilayers with varying thicknesses up to 200 μm have been successfully synthesized by metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) as of this writing. By utilizing the conductivity anisotropy nature of h-BN, 1 cm 2 lateral detectors fabricated from 100 μm thick h-10BN epilayers have demonstrated a detection efficiency of 59% for thermal neutrons, which is the highest on record among all solid-state neutron detectors as of today. It was noted that high growth temperatures, long growth times and the use of sapphire substrate tend to incorporate oxygen related impurities into h- 10 BN epilayers, which strongly impacted the carrier mobility-lifetime (μτ) products and charge collection efficiencies of h- 10 BN neutron detectors. As the h-BN material technology further develops, improved carrier mobilities and μτ products will allow the fabrication of h-BN devices with enhanced performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Machine learning for deep elastic strain engineering of semiconductor electronic band structure and effective mass

Abstract The controlled introduction of elastic strains is an appealing strategy for modulating the physical properties of semiconductor materials. With the recent discovery of large elastic deformation in nanoscale specimens as diverse as silicon and diamond, employing this strategy to improve device performance necessitates first-principles computations of the fundamental electronic band structure and target figures-of-merit, through the design of an optimal straining pathway. Such simulations, however, call for approaches that combine deep learning algorithms and physics of deformation with band structure calculations to custom-design electronic and optical properties. Motivated by this challenge, we present here details of a machine learning framework involving convolutional neural networks to represent the topology and curvature of band structures in k -space. These calculations enable us to identify ways in which the physical properties can be altered through “deep” elastic strain engineering up to a large fraction of the ideal strain. Algorithms capable of active learning and informed by the underlying physics were presented here for predicting the bandgap and the band structure. By training a surrogate model with ab initio computational data, our method can identify the most efficient strain energy pathway to realize physical property changes. The power of this method is further demonstrated with results from the prediction of strain states that influence the effective electron mass. We illustrate the applications of the method with specific results for diamonds, although the general deep learning technique presented here is potentially useful for optimizing the physical properties of a wide variety of semiconductor materials.

Tsymbalov, Evgenii↗

Reactive capture and electrochemical conversion of CO 2 with ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents

Ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have tremendous potential for reactive capture and conversion (RCC) of CO 2 due to their wide electrochemical stability window, low volatility, and high CO 2 solubility. There is environmental and economic interest in the direct utilization of the captured CO 2 using electrified and modular processes that forgo the thermal- or pressure-swing regeneration steps to concentrate CO 2 , eliminating the need to compress, transport, or store the gas. The conventional electrochemical conversion of CO 2 with aqueous electrolytes presents limited CO 2 solubility and high energy requirement to achieve industrially relevant products. Additionally, aqueous systems have competitive hydrogen evolution. In the past decade, there has been significant progress toward the design of ILs and DESs, and their composites to separate CO 2 from dilute streams. In parallel, but not necessarily in synergy, there have been studies focused on a few select ILs and DESs for electrochemical reduction of CO 2 , often diluting them with aqueous or non-aqueous solvents. The resulting electrode–electrolyte interfaces present a complex speciation for RCC. In this review, we describe how the ILs and DESs are tuned for RCC and specifically address the CO 2 chemisorption and electroreduction mechanisms. Critical bulk and interfacial properties of ILs and DESs are discussed in the context of RCC, and the potential of these electrolytes are presented through a techno-economic evaluation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An electron paramagnetic resonance study of the electron transport in heavily Si-doped high Al content AlxGa1−xN

High Al mole fraction AlGaN is an ultrawide bandgap semiconductor with potential applications in power electronics and deep UV detectors. Although n-type material is achievable with Si-doping, the role of Si is controversial, particularly for AlxGa1−xN with x > 0.8. For this paper, AlGaN films were grown by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy onto bulk AlN substrates and doped with 1018–1020 cm−3 Si. We examine electron transport in heavily Si-doped AlxGa1−xN with x ≥ 0.65 using magnetic resonance, which allows us to probe the neutral donors directly rather than the free carriers and avoids complications due to electrical contacts. Transport was studied through the temperature-dependent linewidth of the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) signature for the neutral donor. Analysis shows evidence of hopping conductivity in the most lightly doped samples and impurity band formation in the most heavily doped ones. The EPR results, which are consistent with Hall measurements performed on the same samples, are promising for the development of highly conducting high Al content AlGaN.

Materials Science↗

Deep medical image analysis with representation learning and neuromorphic computing

Deep learning is increasingly used in medical imaging, improving many steps of the processing chain, from acquisition to segmentation and anomaly detection to outcome prediction. Yet significant challenges remain: (i) image-based diagnosis depends on the spatial relationships between local patterns, something convolution and pooling often do not capture adequately; (ii) data augmentation, the de facto method for learning three-dimensional pose invariance, requires exponentially many points to achieve robust improvement; (iii) labelled medical images are much less abundant than unlabelled ones, especially for heterogeneous pathological cases; and (iv) scanning technologies such as magnetic resonance imaging can be slow and costly, generally without online learning abilities to focus on regions of clinical interest. To address these challenges, novel algorithmic and hardware approaches are needed for deep learning to reach its full potential in medical imaging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗