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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21

2008 NIRPC Household Travel Inventory

The Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC) Household Travel Inventory, also sponsored by the Indiana Department of Transportation, is a comprehensive study of the demographic and travel of residents of Lake, Porter, and La Porte counties in northwest Indiana. The primary objective of the study was to provide data for the continued development and refinement of the Indiana regional travel demand forecast models. 3,838 households from northwest Indiana participated in the survey, which entailed the collection of activity and travel information for all household members regardless of age during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. NIRPC travel survey data provided the information required on base-year daily trips made by study area residents to the Chicago CBD. This travel market is treated separately because of the importance of transit for its travelers.

1Hz data↗

1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey

The 1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey was conducted between July and November. NuStats Research and Consulting conducted the survey on behalf of the Puget Sound Regional Council. The purpose of the study was to provide data to continue developing and refining the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the Puget Sound region. The study area consists of King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. The resultant dataset will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. The study had household members 16 years old or older keep track of travel for a 48-hour period. A total of 9,028 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 6,000 households (66.5%) completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from all household members regardless of age. An “attitude” survey about transportation and land use issues was also mailed to household members 16 years old or older.

1Hz data↗

1994 Household Travel Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (COG/TPB) periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1994 Household Travel Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. In two waves during the spring and fall of 1994, consultants for COG/TPB conducted a survey of daily travel by persons living in area households. The survey file contains travel information associated with 4,863 households residing in 13 jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C., region (approximately a 1-in-300 sample). The survey file contains 39,800 internal trip records with respect to the expanded cordon.

1Hz data↗

1998/99 Thurston County Household Travel Study

The survey was conducted under the auspices of the Thurston Regional Planning Council, and it was funded through a state grant awarded to Intercity Transit of Olympia, Washington. Data collection was from September 1998 through March 1999. The purpose of the study was to provide data for the continuing development and refinement of the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the southern Puget Sound region of Washington. The resultant data set will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. Participating households were assigned specific “travel days” to record their travel over a 48-hour period. A total of 2,465 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 1,537 households completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from 3,653 household members regardless of age. Households member made 25,278 total trips during their 48-hour diary period.

1Hz data↗

1968 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1968 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 26,000 households residing in six jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-20 sample).

1Hz data↗

1987/88 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1987/88 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 8,000 households residing in eight jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-166 sample).

1Hz data↗

DeepShake: Shaking Intensity Prediction Using Deep Spatiotemporal RNNs for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract We propose a deep spatiotemporal recurrent neural network, DeepShake, to project future shaking intensity directly from current ground-motion observations. DeepShake is a network-based forecasting model, able to predict future shaking intensity at all stations within a network given previously measured ground shaking. The model is not given any a priori knowledge of station locations; instead, it learns wave propagation amplitudes and delays solely from training data. We developed DeepShake with the 35,679 earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Tasked with alerting for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking on 3568 validation earthquakes at least 5 s in advance, DeepShake achieves an equal error rate of 11.4%. For the Mw 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest on 5 July 2019, DeepShake was able to provide targeted alerts to all stations inside the network 5 s prior to the arrival of MMI IV+ waveforms. DeepShake demonstrates that deep spatiotemporal neural networks can effectively provide one-step earthquake early warning with reasonable accuracy and latency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Tangible Value of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

The lack of an extensive public recharging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Because charging infrastructure is likely to be underutilized during the early stages of market development, it is difficult for decision makers to decide how much to invest in public charging stations. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure to current and potential future owners of PEVs is essential for estimating the benefits of charging stations to current PEV owners and for predicting the impact on future PEV sales. This paper estimates consumers’ willingness to pay for public charging infrastructure in the context of utility maximization. The objective is to provide a method for valuing charging infrastructure that can inform investment decisions and be used in forecasting models to predict the impacts on future PEV sales. A basic theory of the tangible value of charging infrastructure is developed as a function of PEV type, range, recharging time and existing infrastructure. Existing simulation studies provide functional relationships that quantify the ability of charging infrastructure to enable additional miles of electrified travel. The enabled travel functions are used to predict impact of infrastructure deployment on incremental electrified travel for 1) plug-in hybrids and 2) intra-regional and 3) inter-regional travel by all-electric vehicles. The willingness to pay for increased electrified miles is derived from the willingness to pay for increased electric driving range, based on econometric studies of plug-in vehicle choice. The result is a set of three functions that can be used to calculate the marginal willingness-to-pay for public charging infrastructure as a function of vehicle attributes, existing charging infrastructure, energy prices and annual vehicle travel.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes of and Solutions to Wind Speed Bias in NREL’s 2020 Offshore Wind Resource Assessment for the California Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

This report provides the results of a detailed analysis of the causes of high wind speed bias in the 20-year wind resource data set for offshore California that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released in 2020, herein called CA20. The data set was developed using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model. Notably, no floating lidars were available at the time in offshore California to validate offshore hub-height wind speeds. In late 2020, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) deployed two floating lidars in the California Outer Continental Shelf, near the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) call areas of Humboldt and Morro Bay. Using these observations through 2021, NREL found considerable bias in modeled hub-height winds at both locations: up to +2 m/s at Humboldt over a 6-month period, and up to +1 m/s at Morro Bay over a 1-year period.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

3D Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment at kennaook Cape Grim (3D-CAPE-k) Field Campaign Report

The objective of this campaign was to complement the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at kennaook (CAPE-k) in northwest Tasmania by deploying scanning, fixed pointing angle, and in situ aerosol, cloud, and precipitation remote-sensing instruments during the last six months of the experiment. These instruments provided a three-dimensional (3D) context to the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) vertically pointing observations collected at the kennaook Cape Grim (KCG) site and captured a portion of the life cycle of the clouds before and after the passage over the AMF2 vertical column. These 3D cloud measurements will be used in the near future to 1) investigate how the vertical profiles of aerosol and cloud properties are representative of the broader area and how these properties evolve during the portion of the cloud life cycle captured by the scanning instruments, 2) quantify how accurate the cloud fraction derived with assumptions from vertically pointing observations are compared with direct 3D cloud fraction measurements, 3) evaluate cloud fraction and liquid water path in the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator–Convective-scale (ACCESS-C) forecast model, and 4) evaluate aerosol and cloud products from the European Space Agency/Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (ESA/JAXA) Earth Cloud Aerosol Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) mission using the scanning measurements, offering more chances of exact collocation, thereby complementing the statistical approach we are planning to employ with AMF2 observations for that same purpose.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marine renewable energy for Arctic observations

Arctic observations are becoming increasingly valuable as researchers investigate climate change and its associated concerns, such as decreasing sea ice and increasing ship traffic. Networks of sensors with frequent sampling capabilities are needed to run forecast models, improve navigation, and inform climate research. Sampling frequency and deployment duration are currently constrained by battery power limitations. In-situ power generation using marine renewable energy sources such as waves and currents can be used to circumvent this constraint. Wave and current resources vary spatially and temporally in the Arctic, with some locations and seasons being better suited for marine renewable energy power generation. Locations and seasons with small resources may still be able to use marine renewable energy because of the low power requirements of the instruments. In this study, we describe the wave and current resources in the Arctic, outline the electricity generation developments that are needed to utilize the resources, and suggest use cases. Wave and current energy converters developed to power observations in the Arctic could also be used to power observations at lower latitudes. Marine renewable energy has the potential to decrease dependence on batteries and improve data collection capabilities in the Arctic; however, this would require the development of new low power technologies that can operate in extreme Arctic environments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗

Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania

Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH 4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2 σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2 σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. Furthermore these emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Methane emissions from dairies in the Los Angeles Basin

We estimate the amount of methane (CH 4 ) emitted by the largest dairies in the southern California region by combining measurements from four mobile solar-viewing ground-based spectrometers (EM27/SUN), in situ isotopic 13/12 CH 4 measurements from a CRDS analyzer (Picarro), and a high-resolution atmospheric transport simulation with a Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode (WRF-LES). The remote sensing spectrometers measure the total column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CH 4 and CO 2 (X CH 4 and X CO 2 ) in the near infrared region, providing information on total emissions of the dairies at Chino. Differences measured between the four EM27/SUN ranged from 0.2 to 22ppb (part per billion) and from 0.7 to 3ppm (part per million) for X CH 4 and X CO 2 , respectively. To assess the fluxes of the dairies, these differential measurements are used in conjunction with the local atmospheric dynamics from wind measurements at two local airports and from the WRF-LES simulations at 111m resolution. Our top-down CH 4 emissions derived using the Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS) observations of 1.4 to 4.8ppts -1 are in the low end of previous top-down estimates, consistent with reductions of the dairy farms and urbanization in the domain. However, the wide range of inferred fluxes points to the challenges posed by the heterogeneity of the sources and meteorology. Inverse modeling from WRF-LES is utilized to resolve the spatial distribution of CH 4 emissions in the domain. Both the model and the measurements indicate heterogeneous emissions, with contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources at Chino. A Bayesian inversion and a Monte Carlo approach are used to provide the CH 4 emissions of 2.2 to 3.5ppts -1 at Chino.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in the US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to the non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously as both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high-ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite the large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 to 13%, comparable to the present, and high-ozone episodes with a maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) ozone concentration over 70ppbv are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High-ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes; thus improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: spatiotemporal characteristics and source contributions

Aerosols in the middle and upper troposphere have a long enough lifetime for trans-Pacific transport from East Asia to North America to influence air quality on the west coast of the United States (US). Here, we conduct quasi-global simulations (180 °W–180 °E and 70 °S–75 °N) from 2010 to 2014 using an updated version of WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model fully coupled with chemistry) to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and source contributions of trans-Pacific aerosol transport. We find that trans-Pacific total aerosols have a maximum mass concentration (about 15 µg m –3 ) in the boreal spring with a peak between 3 and 4 km above the surface around 40 °N. Sea salt and dust dominate the total aerosol mass concentration below 1 km and above 4 km, respectively. About 80.8 Tg of total aerosols (48.7 Tg of dust) are exported annually from East Asia, of which 26.7 Tg of aerosols (13.4 Tg of dust) reach the west coast of the US. Dust contributions from four desert regions in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed using a tracer-tagging technique. About 4.9, 3.9, and 4.5 Tg year –1 of dust aerosol emitted from north Africa, the Middle East and central Asia, and East Asia, respectively, can be transported to the west coast of the US. The trans-Pacific aerosols dominate the column-integrated aerosol mass (~65.5 %) and number concentration (~80 %) over western North America. Radiation budget analysis shows that the inflow aerosols could contribute about 86.4 % (–2.91 W m –2 ) at the surface, 85.5 % (+1.36 W m –2 ) in the atmosphere, and 87.1 % (–1.55 W m –2 ) at the top of atmosphere to total aerosol radiative effect over western North America. However, near the surface in central and eastern North America, aerosols are mainly derived from local emissions, and the radiative effect of imported aerosols decreases rapidly. This study motivates further investigations of the potential impacts of trans-Pacific aerosols from East Asia on regional air quality and the hydrological cycle in North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗