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At least 379 records · Page 21

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Results of Modeling and Simulation Support to Specia Nuclear Material Handling Facility Operations - 16053

Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) is the sole designer and provider of nuclear powered aircraft carriers and one of only two companies in the United States to build nuclear powered submarines. As part of the upkeep of aircraft carriers, the ships return to NNS once in their lifetime for a complex overhaul and to be refueled. In support of overhaul operations NNS maintains a state of the art Special Nuclear Material (SNM) handling facility. Due to the complex nature of the operations that occur within this facility, during the design and initial operation of the building NNS developed a facility simulation model to provide decision support during the project planning and operational phases. This tool allows users to experiment with process times, process order, equipment utilization, personnel utilization and spatial utilization. By capturing the planned operations, time distributions for operations, equipment sizes and uses and personnel requirements, the tool accurately reflects the planned use of the facility. This realism allows the user to experiment with any aspect of the facility, in a controlled and cost effective space, and determine how changes or potential delays may impact overall facility operations. Thus the model allows for rapid exploration of multiple scenarios to determine likely outcomes, allowing a user to identify risks well ahead of their realization and explore mitigation strategies in a controlled space, to determine the ideal path forward. The tool was successful during the initial operation of the facility in helping to identify and mitigate risks related to the complex operations occurring during SNM handling. The tool is now in use to support planning for the next series of operations that will occur within the facility. The initial operations the model supported occurred during the deactivation of the USS Enterprise, and future operation will focus on the overhaul of Nimitz class aircraft carriers. The NNS planning team is currently using the tool to assess potential risks and challenges that are identified as potentially impacting the schedule and timelines for these overhaul processes. In addition, the NNS development team is working to add new operational steps to the model, capturing work that is occurring near the facility, but which directly impacts the facilities operational abilities. In conjuncture with the engineering planning division, the NNS development team has run over 20 complex scenarios through the tool. The team has provided output from these scenarios to both NNS personnel and government representatives. To date the model has successfully supported the identification of several feasible paths to incorporate new processes, dictated by the work to support a overhaul vs a deactivation. The model also provides a spatial arrangement component that allows users to experiment with different equipment placement within the facility. Due to the fidelity of the model, arranging equipment with the spatial component allows a user to set up the facility in an experimental layout and run the processes inside the facility to determine if the layout will be feasible, or if it would impact operational capabilities. Additionally, the spatial component allows for visual collaboration between stakeholders to ensure all operational personnel are aware of the current and planned layout, and that they do not locate equipment or work stations in locations that would interfere with facility operations. The spatial component, in combination with the simulation component, has resulted in several documented improvements in process. These include: the identification of additional equipment which could be stored outside the facility, without impacting operations, to increase space; confirmation of the ideal placement of a large water tank; and identification of several risks related to planned equipment storage area, allowing the team to develop new plans and avoid realizing the risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic and life-cycle analysis of strategies for improving operability and biomass quality in catalytic fast pyrolysis of forest residues

Many of the challenges faced by the first commercial biorefineries were associated with feedstock handling, quality, and cost. Strategies are needed to enable further expansion of biorefineries and meet the growing demand for bio-based fuels and products. Here, we examine 2 key feedstock challenges and mitigation strategies in the context of a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) biorefinery: (1) the operability of the feed system, which may be improved by modifying the minimum particle size fed to the reactor, and (2) the quality of the biomass, which may be improved by employing air classification to remove undesirable material and increase fuel yields. We conduct techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis for these strategies, employing a discrete event simulation model for biomass preprocessing combined with a series of correlations developed from literature data and a rigorous CFP conversion model. Our results highlight the importance of balancing increased cost and material losses from preprocessing against improved operability and fuel yields. Economics and sustainability were optimized when operating at the lowest minimum particle size, emphasizing the importance of minimizing material losses while maintaining the operability of the process. Economically, additional costs and material losses from air classification could be acceptable due to improved biomass conversion, and an optimum air classification speed was identified; however, the fuel GHG emissions were minimized when air classification was not used. Valorizing material removed during preprocessing as a coproduct could improve economics and sustainability, decreasing the burden of material losses.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2013

A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF POST-2020 MITIGATION EFFORTS OF FIVE MAJOR ECONOMIES

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2°C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2°C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors.

abatement↗

NASA NTRS2010

Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the course of the VIIP project and ultimately how SLSD and HRP mitigate this emerging human health and performance risk.

Fogarty, Jennifer A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Improved InGaN LED System Efficacy and Cost via Droop Reduction

Efficiency droop is a non-thermal process intrinsic to indium gallium nitride light emitting diodes (LEDs) in which the external quantum efficiency (EQE) decreases with increasing drive current density. Mitigating droop would allow one to reduce the size of LEDs driven at a given current or to drive LEDs of given size at higher current while maintaining high efficiencies. In other words, droop mitigation can lead to significant gains in light output per dollar and/or light output per watt of input power. This project set an EQE improvement goal at high drive current density which was to be attained by improving the LED active region design and growth process following a droop mitigation strategy. The interactions between LED active region design parameters and efficiency droop were studied by modeling and experiments. The crystal defects that tend to form in more complex LED designs intended to mitigate droop were studied with advanced characterization methods that provided insight into the structural and electronic properties of the material. This insight was applied to improve the epitaxy process both in terms of active region design and optimization of growth parameters. The final project goals were achieved on schedule and an epitaxy process leading to LEDs with EQE exceeding the project target was demonstrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced convection for higher module and system efficiency (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this work is to develop new solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and solar system-scale designs that promote an increase of the convective heat transfer coefficient of at least 40%, reducing the operating temperature of the solar PV panels, and leading to a boost on the annual energy yield by at least 5%. By achieving this goal, we further foresee decreasing solar panel degradation by +0.3%/year, reducing the LCOE by 2.9-4.5¢/kWh. Currently, this question and/or approach is not considered though it is a relevant factor in performance/efficiency. The technology proposed will be at a mature stage by the end of the project and could be aligned to be proven on a full-field test. PV users, installers and manufacturers will be interested in the technology due to the aforementioned benefits. The work was conducted through a suite of wind tunnel experiments, numerical simulations and field experiments. These were then evaluated through a correlation encompassing the entire data set and implementing findings into NREL SAM. The work resulted in eight peer reviewed publications with three others in preparation. The key results of the project are 1.) Showing the capability of increasing the solar farm power production by increasing the heat transfer coefficient; 2.) Providing strategies for achieving this through large scale arrangement manipulation (heights, spacings, angles), flow deflectors and vortex generators; 3.) Demonstrating scalability of results by comparing numerical simulations, wind tunnel experiments and field experiments; 4.) Providing a correlation to be able to capture the various arrangements while exploiting the heat transfer coefficient; and 5.) Proving the feasibility of such strategies and their capacity through a comprehensive techno-economic analysis. For the heat transfer coefficients, gains of 40% were attained and increases in power in the excess of 5% were observed. For heat mitigation strategies, consideration at the PV array scale were inter-panel spacing, panel height and panel angles while at the module level, wind breaks such as solid walls and selected gaps were evaluated as well as vortex generators on the panel. All proposed strategies saw an increase in heat transfer coefficient. For scalability, results were compared against field experiments and a correlation for the heat transfer quantity was attained leading to a parametric understanding of the variations and impact in the heat transfer coefficient independent of tools implemented (wind tunnel/numerical simulations). The strategies were also further assessed by a technoeconomic analysis finding improvements based on LCOE with respect to location (several states with varies atmospheric conditions/geographic locations) yielded different results. Improvements on this end were also observed especially towards the colder climates and when considering bi-facial modules. The quantitative demonstrations of such conclusions are provided in the main portion of this document with complementary results and their narration. Milestones and go/no-go points were successfully met in the project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Overview of Challenges and Strategies for Stabilizing Zinc Anodes in Aqueous Rechargeable Zn-Ion Batteries

Aqueous rechargeable zinc ion batteries (ZIBs) have been revived and are considered a promising candidate for scalable electrochemical energy storage systems due to their intrinsic safety, low cost, large abundance, mature recyclability, competitive electrochemical performance, and sustainability. However, the deployment of aqueous rechargeable ZIBs is still hampered by the poor electrochemical stability and reversibility of Zn anodes, which is a common, inherent issue for most metal-based anodes. This review presents a comprehensive and timely overview of the challenges and strategies of Zn anodes toward durable ZIBs. First, several challenges that significantly reduce the Coulombic efficiency and cycling stability of Zn anodes are briefly discussed including dendrite formation, hydrogen evolution, and corrosion. Then, the mitigation strategies are summarized in terms of modifying the electrode/electrolyte interfaces, designing electrode structures, and optimizing electrolytes and separators. Further, we comprehensively discuss the mechanisms behind these issues and improvement strategies with respect to the anodes, electrolytes, and separators. Lastly, we provide perspectives and critical analyses of remaining challenges, outlook, and future direction for accelerating the practical application of aqueous rechargeable ZIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Verification of severe accident management guideline (SAMG) entry condition for OPR1000 - 367

The current severe accident prevention and mitigation strategies for OPR 1000 have emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMGs), respectively. The main objective of SAMG is to prevent a release of radioactive materials from releasing into environment and mitigate severe accident phenomena during severe accident. The current SAMG entry condition is met when the core exit temperature (CET) reaches 650 deg. C in OPR 1000. Peak cladding temperature (PCT), which represents core integrity more precisely than CET does, cannot be used since it is not measurable in the main control room (MCR). Current SAMG entry condition for every kind of accident scenarios is not reasonable, since entry condition is determined without considering operator action time. Therefore, SAMG entry condition need to be verified with consider operator action time. Thus, an analysis methodology for SAMG entry condition was developed to verify the SAMG entry condition. A severe accident DB were also developed in order to analyze the SAMG entry condition. The analysis results of DB show that available operator action time from the SAMG entrance to RV fail is shorter than the required time in most cases. As a result, the proper SAMG entry condition was suggested through the results of DB analysis. When the SAMG entry condition is changed from CET to suggested condition, the available action time is increased about 350 to 4300 sec. Also, the suggested entry condition was verified through the simulation which considered operation action time and reflecting the suggested entry condition. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2017

Using stochastic epidemiological models to evaluate conservation strategies for endangered amphibians

Recent outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, the disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), have contributed to population declines of numerous amphibian species worldwide. The devastating impacts of this disease have led researchers to attempt drastic conservation measures to prevent further extinctions and loss of biodiversity. The conservation measures can be labour-intensive or expensive, and in many cases have been unsuccessful. We developed a mathematical model of Bd outbreaks that includes the effects of demographic stochasticity and within-host fungal load dynamics. We investigated the impacts of onetime treatment conservation strategies during the disease outbreak that occurs following the initial arrival of Bd into a previously uninfected frog population. We found that for all versions of the model, for a large fraction of parameter space, none of the one-time treatment strategies are effective at preventing disease-induced extinction of the amphibian population. Of the strategies considered, treating frogs with antifungal agents to reduce their fungal load had the greatest likelihood of a beneficial outcome and the lowest risk of decreasing the persistence of the frog population, suggesting that this disease mitigation strategy should be prioritized over disinfecting the environment or reducing host density.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Strategy for Forced Oscillation Suppression

Wide-area time-synchronized measurements have recently revealed troublesome forced oscillations (FOs) within modern synchronized power grids. In some cases, these FOs represent a dangerous hazard to the system. Recent research has focused on locating the source of FOs to provide operators with knowledge for mitigating their impact locally. This paper presents a complementary mitigation strategy, which is to purposely induce a second oscillation into the grid which cancels the impact of the FO. Such a strategy is complementary in that it may provide valuable time to operators attempting to locate the FOs source and to determine how to rectify it. This paper presents a suppression control strategy which modulates controllable devices to automatically cancel the impact of the FO without the need for locating the source of the original FO. The strategy is based upon tuned feedback control. In this study, the approach is demonstrated on a simulation system via modulation of inverter-based generation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Engineering Approaches to Dendrite free Lithium Anodes

This is the Final Technical Report of the work that was completed related to development of dendrite free anodes for Li-metal batteries. The report contains full details of all the strategies that were employed to overcome this pernicious problems of dendrite formation of lithium metal during cycling of Li-metal and Li-ion batteries. Various approaches were developed to understand the formation of dendrites and mitigation strategies were then developed to overcome this severe problem. In doing so novel multi-component alloys as well as structurally isomorphous alloys have been developed. In addition coating strategies were also developed to overcome the formation of dendrites. The novel approaches related to development of novel alloys using economic cost effective and scalable approaches. The new approaches will easily advance the science of lithium metal alloys and dendrite free anodes including current collectors. Development of this new technology will have immense benefit to providing new high energy density batteries of tremendous benefit to the public since cost effective and safe high energy density batteries will be possible with this new technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

The development of a nuclear thermal propulsion stage requires consideration for radiation emitted from the nuclear reactor core. Applying shielding mass is an effective mitigating solution, but a better alternative is to incorporate some mitigation strategies into the propulsion stage and crew habitat. In this way, the required additional mass is minimized and the mass that must be applied may in some cases be able to serve multiple purposes. Strategies for crew compartment shielding are discussed that reduce dose from both engine and cosmic sources, and in some cases may also serve to reduce life support risks by permitting abundant water reserves. Early consideration for integrated mitigation solutions in a crewed nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) vehicle will enable reduced radiation burden from both cosmic and nuclear sources, improved thrust-to-weight ratio or payload capacity by reducing 'dead mass' of shielding, and generally support a more robust risk posture for a NTP-powered Mars mission by permitting shorter trip times and increased water reserves

Caffrey, Jarvis↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

Caffrey, Jarvis A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change

This Special Issue presents the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), a set of 5 storylines on possible trajectories for human development and global environmental change during the 21st century. The information presented in the Special Issue has been developed over the last few years as a joint community effort and includes both qualitative narratives and results of quantitative model analysis. The SSPs form part of a larger set of community scenarios for analysis of climate change. Such community scenarios form a key tool for analysis of analysis of global environmental change and sustainable development problems. They allow exploration of different futures with and without response strategies. They also form a key tool to link across different disciplines and scales. They allow the same scenarios to be used in research on driving forces of climate change, the physical climate system, climate impacts and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Such scenarios can also link research across different research areas (e.g. climate change and biodiversity analysis) or be used across different scales (global, regional and local scales). Finally, they also have a key function as a consistent data source (population projections, climate projections and insights into land and energy development, for instance).

Van Vuuren, Detlef↗