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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Inelastic dark matter with spin-dependent couplings to protons and large modulation fractions in DAMA

We discuss a scenario where the DAMA modulation effect is explained by a Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) which upscatters inelastically to a heavier state and predominantly couples to the spin of protons. In this scenario constraints from xenon and germanium targets are evaded dynamically, due to the suppression of the WIMP coupling to neutrons, while those from fluorine targets are evaded kinematically, because the minimal WIMP incoming speed required to trigger upscatters off fluorine exceeds the maximal WIMP velocity in the Galaxy, or is very close to it. In this scenario WIMP scatterings off sodium are usually sensitive to the large-speed tail of the WIMP velocity distribution and modulated fractions of the signal close to unity arise in a natural way. On the other hand, a halo-independent analysis with more conservative assumptions about the WIMP velocity distribution allows to extend the viable parameter space to configurations where large modulated fractions are not strictly necessary. We discuss large modulated fractions in the Maxwellian case showing that they imply a departure from the usual cosine time dependence of the expected signal in DAMA. However we explicitly show that the DAMA data is not sensitive to this distortion, both in time and frequency space, even in the extreme case of a 100 % modulated fraction. Moreover the same scenario provides an explanation of the maximum in the energy spectrum of the modulation amplitude detected by DAMA in terms of WIMPs whose minimal incoming speed matches the kinematic threshold for inelastic upscatters. For the elastic case the detection of such maximum suggests an inversion of the modulation phase below the present DAMA energy threshold, while this is not expected for inelastic scattering. This may allow to discriminate between the two scenarios in a future low-threshold analysis of the DAMA data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online Monitoring System for Concrete Structures Affected by Alkali-Silica Reaction

This report presents a comprehensive study of developing ultrasonic wave and acoustic emission (AE) techniques for long-term monitoring of alkali-silica reaction (ASR) development in concrete. Small, medium, and full-scale concrete specimens were cast, conditioned, and monitored for various periods, from at least one year to 2.4 years. The reactive concrete specimens contain coarse or fine reactive aggregates to study the effects of different types of reactive aggregates. Confinements were also designed to simulate the 2-dimensional confinement effects of reinforcement in the shield building of nuclear power plants. The concrete specimens were stored in a environmental chamber with high humidity and high temperature to accelerate the ASR development. The ultrasonic monitoring data shows high sensitivity to ASR development and could detect cracking initiation well before visible surface cracks occurred. However, the linear ultrasonic analysis based on wave velocity is strongly affected by temperature variation. Therefore, a nonlinear ultrasonic method was proposed to measure thermally induced nonlinear acoustic responses of concrete (thermal modulation of ultrasonic wave). The measured nonlinear acoustic parameter shows a high correlation with ASR expansion across specimens with different reactive aggregates and confinement conditions. The same conclusion was obtained from nonlinear resonance tests on small concrete prisms. Compared to the linear acoustic methods, the nonlinear tests show high sensitivities to ASR damage from internal microcracking initiation at the early stage to visible cracks at the late stage of ASR. The attributes of the thermal modulation of nonlinear ultrasonic method include high sensitivity, immunity to temperature effects, and strong correlation with ASR expansion, which demonstrate great potentials of the nonlinear ultrasonic method for diagnosis of ASR damage and prediction of concrete deterioration process. Acoustic emission is a passive sensing technique for damage assessment, and access to only one surface is needed even for thick and heavily reinforced elements such as the walls utilized for nuclear shield building. Additionally, relatively few sensors are required to monitor the progression of the damage process. Results indicate that the AE data can be related to the damage rating index, which is a petrography-based means of assessing damage due to ASR in reinforced concrete. Furthermore, AE is capable of detecting ASR damage long before surface cracking is visually noticeable. Boundary conditions play in important role in the progression of ASR damage and differences in boundary conditions are reflected in the AE data. Entropy based data assessment methods provide a means to assess the damage state, and convolutional neural network based data assessment provided a means to assess the damage state in real-time. Results indicate that artificial neural network models may be used as a means to predict volumetric expansion based on AE data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Information security management system planning for CBRN facilities

The focus of this document is to provide guidance for the development of information security management system planning documents at chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) facilities. It describes a risk-based approach for planning information security programs based on the sensitivity of the data developed, processed, communicated, and stored on facility information systems.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Thermo-mechanical characterization of silicone foams

Cellular solids such as elastomeric foams are used in many structural applications to absorb and dissipate energy, due to their light weight (low density) and high energy absorption capability. In this paper we will discuss foams derived from S5370, a silicone foam formulation developed by Dow Corning. In the application presented, the foam is consolidated into a cushion component of constant thickness but variable density. A mechanical material model developed by Lewis (2013), predicts material response, in part, as a function of relative density. To determine the required parameters for this model we have obtained the mechanical response in compression for ambient, cold and hot temperatures. The variable density cushion provided samples sufficient samples so that the effect of sample initial density on the mechanical response could be studied. The mechanical response data showed extreme sensitivity to relative density. We also observed at strains corresponding to 1 MPa a linear relationship between strain and initial density for all temperatures. Samples taken from parts with a history of thermal cycling demonstrated a stiffening response that was a function of temperature, with the trend of more stiffness as temperature increased above ambient. This observation is in agreement with the entropic effects on the thermo-mechanical behavior of silicone polymers. In this study, we present the experimental methods necessary for the development of a material model, the testing protocol, analysis of test data, and a discussion of load (stress) and gap (strain) as a function of sample initial densities and temperatures

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

A SPATIALLY RESOLVED VERTICAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE HD 163296 DISK

We analyze sensitive, sub-arcsecond resolution ALMA science verification observations of CO emission lines in the protoplanetary disk hosted by the young, isolated Ae star HD 163296. The observed spatial morphology of the {sup 12}CO J = 3-2 emission line is asymmetric across the major axis of the disk; the {sup 12}CO J = 2-1 line features a much less pronounced, but similar, asymmetry. The J = 2-1 emission from {sup 12}CO and its main isotopologues have no resolved spatial asymmetry. We associate this behavior with the direct signature of a vertical temperature gradient and layered molecular structure in the disk. This is demonstrated using both toy models and more sophisticated calculations assuming non-local thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. A model disk structure is developed to reproduce both the distinctive spatial morphology of the {sup 12}CO J = 3-2 line as well as the J = 2-1 emission from the CO isotopologues assuming relative abundances consistent with the interstellar medium. This model disk structure has {tau} = 1 emitting surfaces for the {sup 12}CO emission lines that make an angle of {approx}15 Degree-Sign with respect to the disk midplane. Furthermore, we show that the spatial and spectral sensitivity of these data can distinguish between models that have sub-Keplerian gas velocities due to the vertical extent of the disk and its associated radial pressure gradient (a fractional difference in the bulk gas velocity field of {approx}> 5%)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chlorine Nuclear Data Needs for Advanced Reactors [Slides]

The key physics parameters of the SSR-W have been shown to exhibit high sensitivity to chlorine nuclear data, particularly the Cl-35 (n,p) cross section. This sensitivity will be a feature for any fast chloride reactor. The sensitivity, together with large uncertainty in the fast region, results in significant uncertainty in important output reactor physics parameters, such as reactivity, and hence the required fuel loading for criticality.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Late Breaking Results: COPPER: Computation Obfuscation by Producing Permutations for Encoding Randomly

Deployed embedded devices face security risks due to increased ease of physical access to the devices by unauthorized users. Capable adversaries can intercept a device to recover the data in memory, including results of performed sensitive computations. Device owners require data confidentiality on their physically insecure devices. To satisfy this goal we implement a novel method, COPPER (Computation Obfuscation by Producing Permutations for Encoding Randomly), to create data which never exists on the device digitally in plaintext format and which is subsequently used for computation. In this paper we utilize COPPER to calculate a moving average computation on encoded data.

embedded systems↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE INFLUENCE OF SPATIAL RESOLUTION ON NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE MODELING

The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model is often used to describe the solar coronal magnetic field, however a series of earlier studies revealed difficulties in the numerical solution of the model in application to photospheric boundary data. We investigate the sensitivity of the modeling to the spatial resolution of the boundary data, by applying multiple codes that numerically solve the NLFFF model to a sequence of vector magnetogram data at different resolutions, prepared from a single Hinode/Solar Optical Telescope Spectro-Polarimeter scan of NOAA Active Region 10978 on 2007 December 13. We analyze the resulting energies and relative magnetic helicities, employ a Helmholtz decomposition to characterize divergence errors, and quantify changes made by the codes to the vector magnetogram boundary data in order to be compatible with the force-free model. This study shows that NLFFF modeling results depend quantitatively on the spatial resolution of the input boundary data, and that using more highly resolved boundary data yields more self-consistent results. The free energies of the resulting solutions generally trend higher with increasing resolution, while relative magnetic helicity values vary significantly between resolutions for all methods. All methods require changing the horizontal components, and for some methods also the vertical components, of the vector magnetogram boundary field in excess of nominal uncertainties in the data. The solutions produced by the various methods are significantly different at each resolution level. We continue to recommend verifying agreement between the modeled field lines and corresponding coronal loop images before any NLFFF model is used in a scientific setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Neutron Time-of-Flight Measurements of Charged-Particle Energy Loss in Inertial Confinement Fusion Plasmas

Neutron spectra from secondary 3 H(d,n)α reactions produced by an implosion of a deuterium-gas capsule at the National Ignition Facility have been measured with order-of-magnitude improvements in statistics and resolution over past experiments. Furthermore, these new data and their sensitivity to the energy loss of fast tritons emitted from thermal 2 H(d,p) 3 H reactions enable the first statistically significant investigation of charged-particle stopping via the emitted neutron spectrum. Radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, constrained to match a number of observables from the implosion, were used to predict the neutron spectra while employing two different energy loss models. This analysis represents the first test of stopping models under inertial confinement fusion conditions, covering plasma temperatures of k B T ≈ 1–4 keV and particle densities of n ≈ (12–2) × 10 24 cm –3 . Under these conditions, we find significant deviations of our data from a theory employing classical collisions whereas the theory including quantum diffraction agrees with our data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Low-dose x-ray tomography through a deep convolutional neural network

Synchrotron-based X-ray tomography offers the potential of rapid large-scale reconstructions of the interiors of materials and biological tissue at fine resolution. However, for radiation sensitive samples, there remain fundamental trade-offs between damaging samples during longer acquisition times and reducing signals with shorter acquisition times. We present a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) method that increases the acquired X-ray tomographic signal by at least a factor of 10 during low-dose fast acquisition by improving the quality of recorded projections. Short exposure time projections enhanced with CNN show similar signal to noise ratios as compared with long exposure time projections and much lower noise and more structural information than low-dose fats acquisition without CNN. We optimized this approach using simulated samples and further validated on experimental nano-computed tomography data of radiation sensitive mouse brains acquired with a transmission X-ray microscopy. We demonstrate that automated algorithms can reliably trace brain structures in datasets collected with low dose-CNN. As a result, this method can be applied to other tomographic or scanning based X-ray imaging techniques and has great potential for studying faster dynamics in specimens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ground-based Spectroscopy of the Exoplanet XO-2b Using a Systematic Wavelength Calibration

Exoplanets orbiting close to their host star are expected to support a large ionosphere, which extends to larger pressures than witnessed in our solar system. These ionospheres can be investigated with ground-based transit observations of the optical signatures of alkali metals, which are the source of the ions. However, most ground-based transit spectra do not systematically resolve the wings of the features and continuum, as needed to constrain the alkali abundances. Here we present new observations and analyses of optical transit spectra that cover the Na doublet in the atmosphere of the exoplanet XO-2b. To assess the consistency of our results, observations were obtained from two separate platforms: Gemini/GMOS and Mayall/KOSMOS. To mitigate the systematic errors, we chose XO-2, because it has a binary companion of the same brightness and stellar type, which provides an ideal reference star to model Earth’s atmospheric effects. We find that interpretation of the data is highly sensitive to time-varying translations along the detector, which change according to wavelength and differ between the target and reference star. It was necessary to employ a time-dependent cross-correlation to align our wavelength bins and correct for atmospheric differential refraction. This approach allows us to resolve the wings of the Na line across five wavelength bins at a resolution of ∼1.6 nm and limit the abundance of Na. We obtain consistent results from each telescope with an Na amplitude of 521 ± 161 and 403 ± 186 ppm for GMOS and KOSMOS, respectively. The results are analyzed with a radiative transfer model that includes the effects of ionization. The data are consistent with a clear atmosphere between ∼1 and 100 mbar that establishes a lower limit on Na at 0.4{sub −0.3}{sup +2} ppm ([Na/H] = −0.64{sub −0.6}{sup +0.78}), consistent with solar. However, we cannot rule out the presence of clouds at ∼10 mbar that allow for higher Na abundances, which would be consistent with the stellar metallicity measured for the host star ([Na/H] = 0.485 ± 0.043).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Confronting interacting dark radiation scenarios with cosmological data

Dark radiation (DR) is generally predicted in new physics scenarios that address fundamental puzzles of the Standard Model or tensions in the cosmological data. Cosmological data have the sensitivity to constrain not only the energy density of DR but also whether it is interacting. In this paper, we present a systematic study of five types of interacting DR (free-streaming, fluid, decoupling, instantaneous decoupling, and recoupling DR) and their impact on cosmological observables. We modify the Boltzmann hierarchy to describe all these types of interacting DR under the relaxation time approximation. We, for the first time, robustly calculate the collision terms for recoupling scalar DR and provide a better estimation of the recoupling transition redshift. We demonstrate the distinct features of each type of DR on the cosmic microwave background and matter power spectra. We perform Markov-chain Monte Carlo scans using the Planck 2018 data and baryon acoustic oscillation data. Assuming no new physics in the standard model neutrino sector, we find no statistically significant constraints on the couplings of DR, although there is a slight preference for the fluidlike limit of all the cases. In the case of instantaneous decoupling DR, this limit corresponds to a late transition redshift around recombination. Furthermore, the ΔN eff constraint varies marginally depending on the type of DR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Exploring ν{sub τ}−ν{sub s} mixing with cascade events in DeepCore

The atmospheric neutrino data collected by the IceCube experiment and its low-energy extension DeepCore provide a unique opportunity to probe the neutrino sector of the Standard Model. In the low energy range the experiment have observed neutrino oscillations, and the high energy data are especially sensitive to signatures of new physics in the neutrino sector. In this context, we previously demonstrated the unmatched potential of the experiment to reveal the existence of light sterile neutrinos. The studies are routinely performed in the simplest 3+1 model concentrating on disappearance of muon neutrinos of TeV energy as a result of their mixing with a sterile neutrino. We here extend this analysis to include cascade events that are secondary electromagnetic and hadronic showers produced by neutrinos of all flavors. We find that it is possible to probe the complete parameter space of 3+1 model, including the poorly constrained mixing of the sterile neutrino to tau neutrinos. We show that ν{sub τ}−ν{sub s} mixing results into a unique signature in the data that will allow IceCube to obtain constraints well below the current upper limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nuclear Data and Benchmarking Program: Nuclear Data Performance Assessment for Advanced Reactors

Over the last several Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B releases, many updates have been introduced to the nuclear data libraries that can significantly change computational results. These changes can be particularly important for advanced reactor concepts, which are not as thoroughly investigated as those used in light water reactor (LWR) systems. Therefore, a performance assessment of the ENDF/B libraries using the SCALE 6.2.3 code package was conducted under the auspices of the U.S., Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE). The following systems relevant to the advanced reactor community were chosen as subject for investigation in this report: sodium cooled fast reactor systems, graphite moderated high temperature gas-cooled reactors, and several molten salt reactor models. At first, the similarity of the integral performance of the ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries caused by compensating errors in important differential data was demonstrated. In calculations for a shipping container of high-assay low enriched uranium, the data of individual isotopes were systematically swapped between the two ENDF/B libraries. An eigenvalue difference of up to 450 pcm was found due to the use of 235 U and 238 U from one library and 1 H and 16 O from the other library. This clearly demonstrates a cross-correlation between reaction data sets of different isotopes within a library that should be reported in the evaluations. For sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fuel assemblies, significant eigenvalue (k inf ) differences (200– 450 pcm) were found between calculations using the 2011 ENDF/B-VII.1 data and 2018 ENDF/B-VIII.0 data. These differences were mainly caused by updates of 238 U and 239 Pu neutron cross sections. Results from the multigroup (MG) calculations further revealed that the group structure of the applied MG library strongly influences the MG bias due to the importance of an appropriate energy resolution of the resonances in higher energy ranges. The application of previously used MG libraries requires new verification for advanced reactor simulation in comparisons with reference continuous-energy calculations. Nuclear data uncertainty analyses of these SFR systems resulted in eigenvalue uncertainties between 1,400 and 1,800 pcm, which are three to four times higher than corresponding uncertainties in light water reactor (LWR) systems. The main contributor to this uncertainty was found to be inelastic scattering on 238 U, which shows an uncertainty of up to 50% in the fast energy range. Other important contributors are the scattering reactions of 56 Fe and 23 Na which have so far not appeared in LWR analysis. Since the largest contribution to the eigenvalue uncertainty of SFR systems is coming from scattering reactions, it is expected that uncertainties in the angular scattering distributions also have a significant impact. Those uncertainties are, however, not available for the majority of nuclides, and the capabilities to determine sensitivities to this data are currently underdeveloped. For two graphite moderated high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) benchmarks, only the ENDF/BVII. 1 calculations resulted in consistent eigenvalues (k eff ) with the corresponding experimental measurements. Eigenvalue differences of about 1,000 pcm were found between the 2006 ENDF/B-VII.0 data and the 2011 ENDF/B-VII.1 data, primarily due to an updated carbon capture cross section in the thermal energy range in the later ENDF/B release. The ENDF/B-VIII.0 eigenvalue was larger than the ENDF/B-VII.1 eigenvalue by about 300 pcm mainly due to updates in multiple 235 U neutron cross sections, with offsetting updates in the 238 U cross sections. With ENDF/B-VIII.0, graphite can be modeled as perfect crystal or with two different porosities. The choice of the graphite evaluation can have a significant influence of the eigenvalue. For a HTGR benchmark, maximum eigenvalue differences as high as 650 pcm due to different porosities were observed. More detailed studies of the impact of the porosity are necessary while considering that the graphite porosity can vary between the used materials and changes as a function of neutron fluence. xii The uncertainty of the HTGR eigenvalues due to nuclear data uncertainties was found between 500 and 600 pcm, with the top contributor being the neutron multiplicity of 235 U. A gap in the form of missing uncertainties in graphite thermal scattering data, that might have significant impact on HTGR reactors, was identified. This gap is being investigated by the DOE-NE Nuclear Data and Benchmarking Program, as documented in a separate report The fast spectrum molten salt reactor calculations revealed similar comparisons as for the SFR assemblies. The eigenvalue uncertainties were significantly influenced by inelastic scattering on 238 U, while the impact of angular scattering distributions is unknown. For the graphite and zirconium hydride moderated system, eigenvalue uncertainties of up to 700 pcm were observed, requiring in depth analyses of the cross sections and corresponding uncertainties of the included materials. In general, it was observed that the flux spectra of the various molten salt reactor systems show significant differences, even between a fresh state and a depleted state. The choice of the energy group structure of MG calculations is therefore highly relevant; the applicability of previously used MG libraries needs to be verified. Due the unavailability of pin power measurements of advanced reactor systems, pin power calculations with both ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 data were performed for a light water reactor and compared to corresponding measurements. Both calculations show good agreement with the measurements. A comparison between the ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 results revealed small differences, mostly in the range of about 0.2%.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor Project: FY13 Final Report

The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor provides an efficient approach to monitoring the process conditions in reprocessing facilities in support of the goal of “… (minimization of) the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.” The MIP Monitor measures the distribution of the radioactive isotopes in product and waste streams of a nuclear reprocessing facility. These isotopes are monitored online by gamma spectrometry and compared, in near-real-time, to spectral patterns representing “normal” process conditions using multivariate analysis and pattern recognition algorithms. The combination of multivariate analysis and gamma spectroscopy allows us to detect small changes in the gamma spectrum, which may indicate changes in process conditions. By targeting multiple gamma-emitting indicator isotopes, the MIP Monitor approach is compatible with the use of small, portable, relatively high-resolution gamma detectors that may be easily deployed throughout an existing facility. The automated multivariate analysis can provide a level of data obscurity, giving a built-in information barrier to protect sensitive or proprietary operational data. Proof-of-concept simulations and experiments have been performed in previous years to demonstrate the validity of this tool in a laboratory setting for systems representing aqueous reprocessing facilities. However, pyroprocessing is emerging as an alternative to aqueous reprocessing techniques.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sampling and Analysis Plan for Supplemental Environmental Project: Aquatic Life Surveys

As part of a settlement agreement for nuclear waste incidents in 2014, several supplemental environment projects (SEPs) were initiated at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) between the U.S. Department of Energy and the state of New Mexico. One SEP from this agreement consists of performing aquatic life surveys and will be used to assess the applicability of using generic ambient water-quality criteria (AWQC) for aquatic life. AWQC are generic criteria developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to cover a broad range of aquatic species and are not unique to a specific region or state. AWQC are established by a composition of toxicity data, called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), and are determined by LC50 (lethal concentration of 50% of the organisms studied) acute toxicity experiments for chemicals of interest. It is of interest to determine whether aquatic species inhabiting waters on the Pajarito Plateau are adequately protected using the current generic AWQC. The focus of this study will determine which aquatic species are present in ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial waters within LANL boundaries and from reference waters adjacent to LANL. If the species identified from these waters do not generally represent species used in the SSDs, then SSDs may need to be modified and AWQC may need to be updated. This sampling and analysis plan details the sampling methodology, surveillance locations, temporal scheduling, and analytical approaches that will be used to complete aquatic life surveys. A significant portion of this sampling and analysis plan was formalized by referring to Appendix E: SEP Aquatic Life Surveys DQO (Data Quality Objectives).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

REANALYSIS OF F-STATISTIC GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE SEARCHES WITH THE HIGHER CRITICISM STATISTIC

We propose a new method of gravitational-wave detection using a modified form of higher criticism, a statistical technique introduced by Donoho and Jin. Higher criticism is designed to detect a group of sparse, weak sources, none of which are strong enough to be reliably estimated or detected individually. We apply higher criticism as a second-pass method to synthetic F-statistic and C-statistic data for a monochromatic periodic source in a binary system and quantify the improvement relative to the first-pass methods. We find that higher criticism on C-statistic data is more sensitive by {approx}6% than the C-statistic alone under optimal conditions (i.e., binary orbit known exactly) and the relative advantage increases as the error in the orbital parameters increases. Higher criticism is robust even when the source is not monochromatic (e.g., phase-wandering in an accreting system). Applying higher criticism to a phase-wandering source over multiple time intervals gives a {approx}> 30% increase in detectability with few assumptions about the frequency evolution. By contrast, in all-sky searches for unknown periodic sources, which are dominated by the brightest source, second-pass higher criticism does not provide any benefits over a first-pass search.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗