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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Few measurement shots challenge generalization in learning to classify entanglement

The ability to extract general laws from a few known examples depends on the complexity of the problem and on the amount of training data. In the quantum setting, the learner's generalization performance is further challenged by the destructive nature of quantum measurements that, together with the no-cloning theorem, limits the amount of information that can be extracted from each training sample. In this paper we focus on hybrid quantum learning techniques where classical machine-learning methods are paired with quantum algorithms and show that, in some settings, the uncertainty coming from a few measurement shots can be the dominant source of errors. We identify an instance of this possibly general issue by focusing on the classification of maximally entangled vs. separable states, showing that this toy problem becomes challenging for learners unaware of entanglement theory. Finally, we introduce an estimator based on classical shadows that performs better in the big data, few copy regime. Our results show that the naive application of classical machine-learning methods to the quantum setting is problematic, and that a better theoretical foundation of quantum learning is required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Physical Microphysical Property Retrieval Algorithms During the 2020 IMPACTS Field Campaign

The NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign provides high-quality, high-altitude aircraft lidar (532 nm), radar (W-band) and in-cloud microphysical aircraft data taken during wintertime storm events impacting the United States. This study evaluates two mass-dimensional relationships (Brown and Francis (1995, BF95); Heymsfield (2014, H14) and two lidar-radar microphysical retrieval algorithms (Cloudsat and CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE); VarPy (a variational method derived from the satellite lidar-radar data community)) to estimate aircraft-retrieved volume extinction coefficient (σ), ice water content (IWC), and effective radius (r e ) during the 2020 IMPACTS deployment. BF95 and H14 have a close 1:1 correlation (R 2 = 0.98) with in-situ observations of σ. However, only BF95 displays a linear, consistent, and almost temperature-independent low bias for IWC and r e , which likely arises from the environmental conditions used to determine each. Unlike the field-campaign-derived BF95 and H14 relationships, VarPy and 2C-ICE directly ingest the aircraft-based lidar and radar data to simulate σ, IWC, and r e . For all three microphysical parameters, VarPy and 2C-ICE retrieval errors became notably more pronounced around the dendritic growth zone (-15°C to -10°C) and near freezing (≥-5°C), which suggests that both algorithms experience difficulty addressing riming and aggregation processes and with larger particles (dendrites and plates) due in part to their simplified ice particle assumptions. However, the mean-melt diameter ice-particle assumption did yield more accurate IWC estimates, which led to slightly better overall results for VarPy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of the rodeo algorithm on a quantum computer

The rodeo algorithm is an efficient algorithm for eigenstate preparation and eigenvalue estimation for any observable on a quantum computer. This makes it a promising tool for studying the spectrum and structure of atomic nuclei as well as other fields of quantum many-body physics. The only requirement is that the initial state has sufficient overlap probability with the desired eigenstate. While it is exponentially faster than well-known algorithms such as phase estimation and adiabatic evolution for eigenstate preparation, it has yet to be implemented on an actual quantum device. In this work, we apply the rodeo algorithm to determine the energy levels of a random one-qubit Hamiltonian, resulting in a relative error of 0.08% using mid-circuit measurements on the IBM Q device Casablanca. This surpasses the accuracy of directly-prepared eigenvector expectation values using the same quantum device. We take advantage of the high-accuracy energy determination and use the Hellmann-Feynman theorem to compute eigenvector expectation values for a different random one-qubit observable. For the Hellmann-Feynman calculations, we find a relative error of 0.7%. Here, we conclude by discussing possible future applications of the rodeo algorithm for multi-qubit Hamiltonians.

algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electroweak observables in neutrino-electron scattering from a muon storage ring

We investigate the sensitivity of a companion neutrino detector situated in the plane of a high-energy, high-intensity muon storage ring to elastic ν μ and ν e scattering on electrons (EνES). Assuming a muon collider with center-of-mass energies of up to 10 TeV, we report sensitivity to the weak couplings g V and g A up to around 0.05% relative error, and sensitivity to the weak mixing angle in the momentum transfer Q ∈ [10 −2 , 2] GeV range up to around 0.03% relative error. EνES measurements with high-energy muon storage rings allow one to directly interrogate the momentum-transfer regime associated with the NuTeV anomaly. This level of precision allows unique sensitivity to the momentum-dependence of sin 2 θ W . We estimate that with the neutrinos from a E μ = 1.5 TeV (or higher) muon collider, the hypothesis that sin 2 θ W does not “run” can be safely ruled out.

electroweak precision physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accurate Prediction of pKb in Amines: Validation of the CAM-B3LYP/6-311+G(d,p)/SMD Model

Amines play several key roles in chemistry and biology and are involved in numerous industrial processes, often with significant economic impacts. Recently, amines are also garnering interest as catalysts for polymer synthesis and for CO 2 fixation, incentivizing the need to rapidly design and screen new amino compounds. Hence, developing reliable methods to predict their physicochemical properties, e.g., the base dissociation constant (pKb), is pivotal. Here, a density functional theory (DFT)-based approach was employed to compute the pKb of substituted amines, exploring the impact of several key parameters, including (i) the number of explicit water molecules at the reaction center, (ii) the van der Waals (vdW) surface, and (iii) solvent polarizability. In previous work, it was determined that including two explicit water molecules at the reaction center resulted in highly accurate pKb estimates for primary amines. Here, we find that including a third water molecule at the reaction center is essential for accurate pKb for secondary and tertiary amines. The revised methodology was then applied to a wider selection of amines, obtaining a minimum average error (MAE) < 0.4. In conclusion, this result represents an extension of our “easy-to-use method,” a simple and direct DFT approach exploiting CAM-B3LYP/SMD/6-311G+(d,p) to compute pKb without post facto modifications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are better combinations of DERs more profitable?: Combinatorial optimization for aggregation of DERs in wholesale electricity markets

Recently, regulatory changes in various countries have enabled the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated in virtual power plants (VPPs) in wholesale electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty and variability of resources comprising VPPs can lead to imbalances between forecasted and metered outputs, potentially resulting in the deficient settlement of generation under imbalance settlement rules. To address this challenge, it is essential to manage variability in the planning phase and uncertainty in the operation phase. Most current research focuses on managing forecasting errors in the operational phase, with insufficient attention given to the planning phase. Here, to bridge this gap, this paper proposes an optimal combination strategy for DERs to maximize the market participation revenue of VPPs by proactively managing variability in the planning phase. To estimate the expected revenue, we conducted analyses for homogeneous and heterogeneous DERs using Monte Carlo simulations and genetic algorithms. Remarkably, the proposed method demonstrated approximately 8 % higher revenue compared to the neighboring group case when considering diversity in DER set configuration with equal proportions of photovoltaics and wind.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Oscillator-Qubit Quantum Processors: Instruction Set Architectures, Abstract Machine Models, and Applications

This tutorial offers a pedagogical guide to hybrid quantum processors that integrate discrete-variable (DV) qubits and continuous-variable (CV) oscillators. Aimed at computer scientists, engineers, and physicists, it provides an overview of the experimental, algorithmic, and architectural aspects of this novel and rapidly developing hardware model. Experimental realizations of this model include superconducting, trapped-ion, and neutral-atom platforms. By combining DV and CV components, hybrid oscillator-qubit processors enable a powerful new paradigm that offers complementary strengths for quantum control, error correction, computation, and simulation. Working toward the goal of a full-stack system connecting applications to CV-DV hardware, we define and formulate abstract machine models and instruction set architectures. These essential abstractions enable codesign of hardware and software, and resource estimation for exploring the potential of current and future hardware for computational and simulation tasks. Using these abstractions, we present both new and existing examples that illustrate the benefits of hybrid CV-DV processors relative to traditional DV-only hardware in computation as well as quantum simulation of physical models. Examples include algorithms for transferring states between DV and CV systems, performing the quantum Fourier transform, and simulation of lattice gauge theories. Relative to qubit-only hardware, the bosonic degrees of freedom natively available in hybrid architectures can substantially reduce the circuit complexity of simulations for physical models containing bosons. A key technique is the extension of quantum signal processing ideas to CV-DV systems. This work is intended to serve as a timely and comprehensive guide to this relatively unexplored yet promising approach to quantum computation and to provide a road map to guide future development.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hiperclust

This software leverages transfer learning to analyze atom probe tomography (APT) data. It is trained on synthetic data and then applies this knowledge to predict the optimal number of clusters for a given APT dataset. Initially, the software used preliminary clustering to estimate the general structure of the data. Based on this, it provides suggestions for key parameters like minimum cluster size and minimum number of points. These parameters are critical for algorithms like HDBSCAN, ensuring accurate cluster formation without the need for trial-and-error testing. The software runs on High-Performance computing (HPC) systems, enabling fast, scalable analysis of large APT datasets, ultimately saving time and improving the reliability of clustering outcomes.

Tang, Yalei [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating information content: an example with advection

The mathematical algorithm to derive geophysical information from remote sensing observations is called a retrieval. The mathematics of many retrieval problems are ill-posed, and thus a priori information is used to help constrain the derived geophysical variable to realistic values. One quantity of interest, therefore, is the information content of the observation. Perfect information content in the observation would be achieved if the retrieval were able to capture any perturbation in the desired geophysical variable with the proper magnitude. Many new data products can be derived by combining geophysical variables retrieved from multiple different remote sensors. This paper explores, for the first time, how to derive the information content of these derived products. The approach uses traditional error propagation techniques to derive the uncertainty of the derived field twice, both when the observations are used in the retrieval and also when only the a priori information from each remote sensor is propagated. These two uncertainties are then used to provide an estimate of the information content of the derived geophysical variable. This study demonstrates how to propagate the uncertainties from six different instruments to provide the information content for water vapor and temperature advection. A multi-month analysis demonstrates that, in a mean sense, the information content for temperature advection is nearly unity for all heights below 700 m while, the information content for water vapor advection is somewhat more variable but still larger than 0.6 in the convective boundary layer.

Turner, David D. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating flow resistance to equivalent roughness

Describing flow resistance using the physical properties of an underlying surface is a recalcitrant problem in overland flow models. If discharge measurements are available, an equivalent roughness (e.g., Manning’s n) can be calibrated to represent the effects of surface properties within the domain with a single numerical value. Alternatively, the flow resistance can be estimated from discharge and velocity measured at a point, typically a runoff plot outlet. However, such experimental estimates are often inconsistent with the equivalent roughness determined from calibration to discharge, even if both derive from the same dataset. For example, if Manning’s equation is used to parameterize flow resistance, the Manning’s n obtained by calibrating a model to discharge differs from the value of n calculated from measured flow and velocity at the hillslope outlet. Here, this discrepancy is resolved by deriving a correction factor relating experimentally-determined flow resistance to the equivalent roughness. The derived correction factor is tested for four commonly-used resistance formulations using 129 rainfall simulator experiments. The correction factor is necessary to reproduce measured velocities, and yields minor improvements in discharge prediction. Plain Language Summary: Accurate runoff prediction is needed for land and water management in dryland regions, where sporadic and limited rainfall necessitate efficient water use and drought mitigation strategies. The skill of runoff models is known to be hindered by out ability to estimate flow resistance, which is the quantity that describes how energy is lost from flowing water to the underlying surface. Typically, models represent flow resistance with an equivalent roughness, e.g., Manning’s n, that is adjusted until the model can reproduce available discharge observations at watershed scale. However, the flow resistance measured in plot-scale experiments (1–10 m) often exceeds equivalent roughness coefficients by a factor of 10. This means that the direct use of plot-scale experimental data to parameterize runoff models could cause errors in discharge and runoff velocity predictions. Here, we resolve these differences by deriving an analytic correction factor that relates flow resistance to the equivalent roughness required for models to reproduce experimental velocity and discharge data. This correction factor is tested using rainfall simulator data from 129 experiments performed in the US Southwest covering a wide range of precipitation intensities, soil textures and vegetation types. Use of the correction factor substantially improves model prediction of flow velocity, which is needed for reproducing the timing of flood events and the estimation of erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗