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At least 379 records · Page 21

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

Mission Assurance↗

Space Radiation Transport Code Development: 3DHZETRN

The space radiation transport code, HZETRN, has been used extensively for research, vehicle design optimization, risk analysis, and related applications. One of the simplifying features of the HZETRN transport formalism is the straight-ahead approximation, wherein all particles are assumed to travel along a common axis. This reduces the governing equation to one spatial dimension allowing enormous simplification and highly efficient computational procedures to be implemented. Despite the physical simplifications, the HZETRN code is widely used for space applications and has been found to agree well with fully 3D Monte Carlo simulations in many circumstances. Recent work has focused on the development of 3D transport corrections for neutrons and light ions (Z < 2) for which the straight-ahead approximation is known to be less accurate. Within the development of 3D corrections, well-defined convergence criteria have been considered, allowing approximation errors at each stage in model development to be quantified. The present level of development assumes the neutron cross sections have an isotropic component treated within N explicit angular directions and a forward component represented by the straight-ahead approximation. The N = 1 solution refers to the straight-ahead treatment, while N = 2 represents the bi-directional model in current use for engineering design. The figure below shows neutrons, protons, and alphas for various values of N at locations in an aluminum sphere exposed to a solar particle event (SPE) spectrum. The neutron fluence converges quickly in simple geometry with N > 14 directions. The improved code, 3DHZETRN, transports neutrons, light ions, and heavy ions under space-like boundary conditions through general geometry while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. A brief overview of the 3D transport formalism for neutrons and light ions is given, and extensive benchmarking results with the Monte Carlo codes Geant4, FLUKA, and PHITS are provided for a variety of boundary conditions and geometries. Improvements provided by the 3D corrections are made clear in the comparisons. Developments needed to connect 3DHZETRN to vehicle design and optimization studies will be discussed. Future theoretical development will relax the forward plus isotropic interaction assumption to more general angular dependence.

Wilson, John W.↗

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗

Medical Systems Engineering to Support Mars Mission Crew Autonomy

Human spaceflight missions to Mars face exceptionally challenging resource limitations that far exceed those faced before. Increasing transit times, decreasing opportunity for resupply, communications challenges, and extended time to evacuate a crew to definitive medical care dictate a level of crew autonomy in medical care that is beyond the current medical model. To approach this challenge, a medical systems engineering approach is proposed that relies on a clearly articulated Concept of Operations and risk analysis tools that are in development at NASA. This paper proposes an operational clinical model with key terminology and concepts translated to a controls theory paradigm to frame a common language between clinical and engineering teams. This common language will be used for design and validation of an exploration medical system that is fully integrated into a Mars transit vehicle. This approach merges medical simulation, human factors evaluation techniques, and human-in-the-loop testing in ground based analogs to tie medical hardware and software subsystem performance and overall medical system functionality to metrics of operational medical autonomy. Merging increases in operational clinical autonomy with a more restricted vehicle system resource scenario in interplanetary spaceflight will require an unprecedented level of medical and engineering integration. Full integration of medical capabilities into a Mars vehicle system may require a new approach to integrating medical system design and operations into the vehicle Program structure. Prior to the standing-up of a Mars Mission Program, proof of concept is proposed through the Human Research Program.

Antonsen, Erik↗

Remediating Non-Positive Definite State Covariances for Collision Probability Estimation

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team estimates the probability of collision (Pc) for a set of Earth-orbiting satellites. The Pc estimation software processes satellite position+velocity states and their associated covariance matri-ces. On occasion, the software encounters non-positive definite (NPD) state co-variances, which can adversely affect or prevent the Pc estimation process. Inter-polation inaccuracies appear to account for the majority of such covariances, alt-hough other mechanisms contribute also. This paper investigates the origin of NPD state covariance matrices, three different methods for remediating these co-variances when and if necessary, and the associated effects on the Pc estimation process.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

Range Flight Safety Requirements

The purpose of this NASA Technical Standard is to provide the technical requirements for the NPR 8715.5, Range Flight Safety Program, in regards to protection of the public, the NASA workforce, and property as it pertains to risk analysis, Flight Safety Systems (FSS), and range flight operations. This standard is approved for use by NASA Headquarters and NASA Centers, including Component Facilities and Technical and Service Support Centers, and may be cited in contract, program, and other Agency documents as a technical requirement. This standard may also apply to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory or to other contractors, grant recipients, or parties to agreements to the extent specified or referenced in their contracts, grants, or agreements, when these organizations conduct or participate in missions that involve range flight operations as defined by NPR 8715.5.1.2.2 In this standard, all mandatory actions (i.e., requirements) are denoted by statements containing the term “shall.”1.3 TailoringTailoring of this standard for application to a specific program or project shall be formally documented as part of program or project requirements and approved by the responsible Technical Authority in accordance with NPR 8715.3, NASA General Safety Program Requirements.

Flight↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

NASA CA Operations Devolution: Status Update

What is Devolution? Devolution is a spreading of CA (Conjunction Assessment) operations responsibilities to mission FOTs (Flight Operations Teams): Permits efficiencies in handling the increased workload caused by Space Fence and large constellations; Missions given more flexibility in choosing specific approach to CA requirements that resonates best with their particular needs; CARA (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) retains Agency oversight through an established NASA Standard - will establish requirements for devolved CA preparations, processing, and operations conduct. Devolution is a PROPOSED paradigm under consideration by SMD (Space Missions Directorate): Number of activities required before Agency-level decision can be rendered; Agency requirements established via approved CA Standard; Operational experience testimony from two separate pilot programs; After these activities complete, decision will be made whether devolution is a feasible option for missions; CARA is recommending devolution to exist as an option for missions.

conjunction↗

Robust Bonding Through Process Control

Process control has been proven to be the most reliable means of safeguarding the quality of adhesive bonds according to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). A method for implementing process control for reduction in risk in a bonded joint fabrication process is demonstrated in this study using a selected bonding system. The stepwise method included risk analysis to identify defects with the highest impact and likelihood to occur, evaluation of various pre-bond surface analysis tools to monitor for the selected defects, and demonstration of the benefits of in-process monitoring utilizing threshold limits determined from bond performance tests. The bonded system selected for investigation was an aerospace carbon fiber epoxy composite substrate surface prepared with random orbital sanding using 180 grit aluminum oxide sand paper. A series of portable, pre-bond surface analysis tools were investigated for their ability to be used for in-line bond process control. Results and threshold limits are presented from roughness, ballistic water contact angle (WCA), color, gloss, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) surface analysis tools. Results demonstrated how in-process inspection methods can be used to ensure quality of a surface preparation for a selected bonding system. A framework is provided for implementation of bond process control for robust bonding.

Kutscha, Eileen O.↗

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗

A Ground Footprint Eccentricity Model For Asteroid Airbursts

Uncertainties in early observations of potentially hazardous asteroids result in preliminary impact corridors that can stretch across large portions of the Earth’s surface. At this early stage of detection, the corridor width and potential for damage are typically estimated using techniques from nuclear weapons research. These estimates often employ spherical blast assumptions resulting in a constant width impact corridor. In actuality, however, the ground damage footprint of obliquely entering asteroids is generally roughly elliptical or “butterfly” shaped, with the major axis extending in the cross range direction and the minor axis aligned with ground-track of the meteoroid. Since actual ground footprints for oblique entries may have aspect ratios greater than two or three, the assumption of a circular blast may significantly underestimate the area of the impact swath and the at-risk population. This work develops an engineering model that can be used to quickly estimate the eccentricity of the ground footprint as a function of local impact parameters. This yields vastly improved local estimates of the corridor width and can significantly enhance the accuracy of risk analysis.

Aftosmis, Michael J.↗

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗

Ice Crystal Icing Investigation on a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine in an Altitude Simulation Icing Facility

A Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine was exposed to various ice crystal conditions in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory. Simulations using NASA's 1D Icing Risk Analysis tool were used to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice crystal accretion along the inlet of the core flowpath and into the high pressure compressor. These conditions were simulated in the facility to develop baseline conditions. Parameters were then varied to move or change accretion characteristics. Data were acquired at altitudes varying from 5 kft to 45 kft, at nominal ice particle Median Volumetric Diameters from 20 µm to 100 µm, and total water contents of 1 g/m3 to 12 g/m3. Engine and flight parameters such as fan speed, Mach number, and inlet temperature were also varied. The engine was instrumented with total temperature and pressure probes. Static pressure taps were installed at the leading edge of the fan stator, front frame hub, the shroud of the IGV, and first two rotors. Metal temperatures were acquired for vane stators 1-2. In-situ measurements of the particle size distribution were acquired three meters upstream of the engine forward fan flange and one meter downstream of the fan in the bypass in order to study particle break-up behavior. Cameras were installed in the engine to capture ice accretions at the leading edge of the fan stator, splitter lip, and inlet guide vane. Additional measurements acquired but not discussed in this paper include: high speed pressure transducers installed at the trailing edge of the first stage rotor and light extinction probes used to acquire particle concentrations at the fan exit stator plane and at the inlet to the core and bypass. The goal of this study was to understand key parameters of accretion, acquire particle break-up data aft of the fan, and generate a unique icing dataset for model and tool development. This work described in the paper focuses on the effect of particle break-up. It was found that there was significant particle break-up downstream of the fan in the bypass especially with larger initial particle sizes. The metal temperatures on the inlet guide vanes and stators show a temperature increase with increasing MVD. Accretion behavior was very similar across all test cases. However at the inlet guide vanes, the accretion decreased with increasing particle size.

Ashlie B Flegel↗

Comparison of Exploration Oxygen Recovery Technology Options Using ESM and LSMAC

In preparation for long duration manned space flight, numerous technology development efforts are ongoing in the area of environmental control and life support (ECLS). In cooperation with international, industry, and academic partners, NASA seeks to leverage the International Space Station as a testbed for technologies targeted for Exploration-class missions. In recent years, Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM) analyses have been conducted to evaluate the relative breakeven points and to compare technologies as part of ECLS architectural trades. While these studies have provided important data pertaining to key engineering metrics, additional considerations are important to more fully understand the potential impacts and costs associated with selecting a specific architecture. A tool, called the Life Support Multi-Dimensional Assessment Criteria (LSMAC), was recently proposed by Sierra Nevada Corporation in an attempt to incorporate influences of these additional considerations including Maintainability, Risk Analysis, Technology Readiness Level, Radiation Impacts, Manufacturing Costs, Reliability, Human Factors, and Un-Crewed Operations. As a first step toward evaluating and implementing this tool, LSMAC was used to revisit the ISS oxygen recovery trade from the 1990’s wherein Sabatier was selected over Bosch technology. Second, the tool was used to compare oxygen recovery developmental technologies currently in work. The results of these studies as well as a comparison with standalone ESM analyses are reported. Further, a discussion of the potential application of the tool across the ECLS portfolio and its potential use in future technology selection for ISS flight demonstrations is provided.

Morgan B Abney↗

Ice-Crystal Icing Investigation on a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine in an Altitude Simulation Icing Facility

A Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine was exposed to various ice-crystal conditions in the NASA Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL). Simulations using NASA's one-dimensional (1D) Icing Risk Analysis tool were used to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice-crystal accretion along the inlet of the core flowpath and into the high-pressure compressor. Baseline conditions were established, and parameters were varied to observe accretion characteristics. Data were acquired at altitudes varying from 5 kft to 45 kft, at nominal ice particle median volumetric diameters from 20 µm to 100 µm, and total water contents of 1 g/m3 to 12 g/m3. Metal temperatures were acquired for the inlet guide vane and vane stators 1–2. In situ measurements of the particle size distribution were acquired upstream and downstream of the engine fan face in order to study particle breakup behavior. Cameras were installed in the engine to capture ice accretions at the leading edge of the fan stator, splitter lip, and inlet guide vane. The goal of this study was to understand the key parameters of accretion, acquire particle breakup data aft of the fan, and generate a unique icing dataset for model development. Significant particle breakup downstream of the fan in the bypass was observed. The metal temperatures on the inlet guide vanes (IGVs) and stators show a temperature increase with increasing particle size. Accretion behavior at the fan stator and splitter lip across was very similar. However, accretion decreased with increasing particle size at the IGVs.

Ashlie B. Flegel↗