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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Search for magnetically-induced signatures in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We search for signals of magnetically-induced effects in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory. We apply two different methods. One is a search for sets of events that show a correlation between their arrival direction and the inverse of their energy, which would be expected if they come from the same point-like source, they have the same electric charge and their deflection is relatively small and coherent. We refer to these sets of events as “multiplets”. The second method, called “thrust”, is a principal axis analysis aimed to detect the elongated patterns in a region of interest. We study the sensitivity of both methods using a benchmark simulation and we apply them to data in two different searches. The first search is done assuming as source candidates a list of nearby active galactic nuclei and starburst galaxies. The second is an all-sky blind search. We report the results and we find no statistically significant features. We discuss the compatibility of these results with the indications on the mass composition inferred from data of the Pierre Auger Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

First direct measurement of 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni: A step towards constraining the Ni-Cu cycle in the cosmos

Reactions on proton-rich nuclides drive the nucleosynthesis in core collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and in x-ray bursts (XRBs). CCSNe eject the nucleosynthesis products to the interstellar medium and hence are a potential inventory of p nuclei, whereas in XRBs nucleosynthesis powers the light curves. In both astrophysical sites the Ni-Cu cycle, which features a competition between 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni and 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn, could potentially halt the production of heavier elements. Here, we report the first direct measurement of 59 Cu(p,α) 56 Ni using a reaccelerated 59Cu beam and a cryogenic solid hydrogen target. Furthermore, our results show that the reaction proceeds predominantly to the ground state of 56 Ni, and the experimental rate has been found to be lower than Hauser-Feshbach based statistical model predictions. New results hints that the νp process could operate at higher temperatures than previously inferred and therefore remains a viable site for synthesizing the heavier elements

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Latitudinal beaming of Jupiter's low frequency radio emissions

By comparing RAE-1 and IMP-6 satellite measurements of Jupiter's radio emission near 1MHz with recent Voyager-1 and 2 observations in the same frequency range, the properties of the low frequency radiation pattern over a 10 deg range of latitudes with respect to the Jovian rotation equator can be studied. These observations, which cover a wider latitudinal range than is possible from the earth, are consistent with many aspects of earlier ground-based measurements used to infer a sharp beaming pattern for the decameter wavelength emissions. Marked, systematic changes are found in the statistical occurrence probability distributions with system 3 central meridian longitude as the jovigraphic latitude of the observer changes over this range. Simultaneous observations by the two Voyager spacecraft suggest that the instantaneous beam width may be no more than a few degrees at times. The new hectometer-wave results can be interpreted in terms of a narrow, curved sheet at a fixed magnetic latitude into which the emission is beamed to escape the planet.

Alexander, J. K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small-Sample Estimator Decisions – Certainly Uncertain in Human Spaceflight at NASA

Within statistics when estimating means, we rely heavily on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to aid in our inference, however in cases where the CLT does not apply we begin to be strongly limited in our choices. If a violation to the CLT comes in the form of small samples and unknown population variance, yet we maintain the assumption of normality, the use of t-distributions is perfectly valid. We explore cases where population normality is not assumed, where sample sizes are small, and where some actionable estimate of the central tendency of a distribution is needed such as for spaceflight operational decisions. Here we identify different scenarios based on measures taken from spaceflight, characterizing performance of estimators of central tendency within our set of simulations. We examine bias and variability of standard estimators of central tendency as they apply to varying small sample sizes and varying population distributions. Further work in this area is needed to develop a framework or set of guidelines for individuals set in these situations. Even with limited information, decisions need to be made.

Central Tendency↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical methods for superresolution dislocation identification in dark-field X-ray microscopy

In this work, we develop several inference methods to estimate the position of dislocations from images generated using dark-field X-ray microscopy (DFXM)—achieving superresolution accuracy and principled uncertainty quantification. Using the framework of Bayesian inference, we incorporate models of the DFXM contrast mechanism and detector measurement noise, along with initial position estimates, into a statistical model coupling DFXM images with the dislocation position of interest. We motivate several position estimation and uncertainty quantification algorithms based on this model. We then demonstrate the accuracy of our primary estimation algorithm on synthetic realistic DFXM images of edge dislocations in single-crystal aluminum. We conclude with a discussion of our methods’ impact on future dislocation studies and possible future research avenues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring the propagation of mechanical discontinuity using data-driven causal discovery and supervised learning

Mechanical wave transmission through a material is influenced by the mechanical discontinuity in the material. The propagation of embedded discontinuities can be monitored by analyzing the wave-transmission measurements recorded by a multipoint sensor system placed on the surface of the material. The proposed workflow monitors the propagation of mechanical discontinuity through three stages, namely initial, intermediate, and final stages, by using supervised learning followed by data-driven causal discovery. To the end, the workflow processes the multipoint waveform measurements resulting from a single impulse source, while considering the effects of wave attenuation, dispersion and multiple wave-propagation modes due to the discontinuity and material boundaries. Among various feature reduction techniques ranging from decomposition methods to manifold approximation methods, the features derived based on statistical parameterizations of the measured waveforms lead to reliable monitoring that is robust to changes in precision, resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio of the multipoint sensor measurements. The numbers of zero-crossing, negative-turning, and positive turning in the waveforms are the strongest causal signatures of the propagation of mechanical discontinuity. Higher order moments of the waveforms, such as variance, skewness and kurtosis, are also strong causal signatures of the propagation. Finally, the newly discovered causal signatures confirm that the statistical correlations and conventional feature rankings are not always statistically significant indicators of causality.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

On-the-fly autonomous control of neutron diffraction via physics-informed Bayesian active learning

We demonstrate the first live, autonomous control over neutron diffraction experiments by developing and deploying ANDiE: the autonomous neutron diffraction explorer. Neutron scattering is a unique and versatile characterization technique for probing the magnetic structure and behavior of materials. However, instruments at neutron scattering facilities in the world is limited, and instruments at such facilities are perennially oversubscribed. We demonstrate a significant reduction in experimental time required for neutron diffraction experiments by implementation of autonomous navigation of measurement parameter space through machine learning. Prior scientific knowledge and Bayesian active learning are used to dynamically steer the sequence of measurements. We show that ANDiE can experimentally determine the magnetic ordering transition of both MnO and Fe 1.09 Te all while providing a fivefold enhancement in measurement efficiency. Furthermore, in a hypothesis testing post-processing step, ANDiE can determine transition behavior from a set of possible physical models. ANDiE's active learning approach is broadly applicable to a variety of neutron-based experiments and can open the door for neutron scattering as a tool of accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparative analysis of YOLOv8 and U-Net image segmentation approaches for transmission electron micrographs of polycrystalline thin films

Metallic thin films offer a platform to experimentally study the dynamics of microstructural evolution, but the required transmission electron microscopy (TEM)-based imaging generates complex images that are challenging to segment and quantify. This work provides a comparative analysis of a new YOLOv8 model and an established U-Net model for bright-field TEM images of polycrystals, employing a framework leveraging physical observables to evaluate performance against two hand-traced benchmark datasets. This methodology obviates the comparison of large, diversely structured, and manually labeled datasets that are required to assess performance on a per-image/per-pixel basis. It is found that the YOLOv8 model, adapted for real-time instance segmentation, has up to 43× faster inferencing (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090) compared to U-Net and reconstructs hand-traced grain size distributions (GSDs) with excellent fidelity, finding mean diameter within 3% for grains near an optimal magnification; for grains that deviate from the optimal pixel-diameter, the size of small- (large)-diameter grains is systematically over- (under)-estimated. This is partially mitigated by including scale-aware augmentations during training. Moreover, when the bias is corrected post-inference by a rigid shift in distribution, the YOLOv8 model reproduces ground truth GSDs with exceptional fidelity, with statistical tests indicating <5% probability that the distributions are distinct. Based on ground truth data, calibration curves pertaining to this shift can be constructed for a given model. This issue is not present in the U-Net model’s results, indicating that for quantitative measurements where the true size of objects is of interest, special procedures must be implemented for YOLO-based models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning new physics from data: A symmetrized approach

Thousands of person years have been invested in searches for new physics (NP), the majority of them motivated by theoretical considerations. Yet, no evidence of beyond the Standard Model physics has been found. This suggests that model-agnostic searches might be an important key to explore NP, and help discover unexpected phenomena which can inspire future theoretical developments. A possible strategy for such searches is identifying asymmetries between data samples that are expected to be symmetric within the Standard Model. We propose exploiting neural networks (NNs) to quickly fit and statistically test the differences between two samples. Our method is based on an earlier work, originally designed for inferring the deviations of an observed dataset from that of a much larger reference dataset. We present a symmetric formalism, generalizing the original one, avoiding fine-tuning of the NN parameters and any constraints on the relative sizes of the samples. Our formalism could be used to detect small symmetry violations, extending the discovery potential of current and future particle physics experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Network Analysis of Rodent Transcriptomes in Spaceflight

Network analysis methods leverage prior knowledge of cellular systems and the statistical and conceptual relationships between analyte measurements to determine gene connectivity. Correlation and conditional metrics are used to infer a network topology and provide a systems-level context for cellular responses. Integration across multiple experimental conditions and omics domains can reveal the regulatory mechanisms that underlie gene expression. GeneLab has assembled rich multi-omic (transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenomics, and epitranscriptomics) datasets for multiple murine tissues from the Rodent Research 1 (RR-1) experiment. RR-1 assesses the impact of 37 days of spaceflight on gene expression across a variety of tissue types, such as adrenal glands, quadriceps, gastrocnemius, tibalius anterior, extensor digitorum longus, soleus, eye, and kidney. Network analysis is particularly useful for RR-1 -omics datasets because it reinforces subtle relationships that may be overlooked in isolated analyses and subdues confounding factors. Our objective is to use network analysis to determine potential target nodes for therapeutic intervention and identify similarities with existing disease models. Multiple network algorithms are used for a higher confidence consensus.

genomics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_0$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_0$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification for a Multi-phase Carbon Equation of State Model

Many physics models have tunable parameters that are calibrated by matching the model output to experimental or calculated data. However, given that calibration data often contain uncertainty and that different model parameter sets might result in a very similar simulated output for a finite calibration data set, it is advantageous to provide an ensemble of parameter sets that are consistent with the calibration data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a means to generate such an ensemble in a statistically rigorous fashion. In this work, we perform UQ for a multi-phase equation of state (EOS) model for carbon containing the diamond, graphite, and liquid phases. We use a Bayesian framework for the UQ and introduce a novel strategy for including phase diagram information in the calibration. The method is highly general and accurately reproduces the calibration data without any material-specific prior knowledge of the EOS model parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗