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NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations Impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation Predictions: Case Studies from the NASA GEOS Seasonal Forecast System

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would have great societal benefit. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean salinity. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to improve the estimates of ocean density changes and associated near-surface mixing. For the first time, we assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these initializations impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using NASA’s coupled forecast system (GEOS-S2S-2). For all initialization experiments, all available sea level and in situ temperature and salinity observations are assimilated. Separate observing system experiments (OSE) additionally assimilate Aquarius, and SMAP, SMOS, and these datasets combined. We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing experiments with and without the application of SSS assimilation. Next, we compare case studies of coupled forecasts for the big 2015 El Niño, the 2017 La Niña, and the weak El Niño in 2018 that are initialized from GEOS-S2S-2 spring reanalyses that assimilate and withhold along-track SSS. For each of these ENSO-event case studies, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation with respect to observed NINO3.4 anomalies (or at least reduces the forecast uncertainty). Satellite SSS assimilation improved characterization of the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts. These results further underline the value of satellite SSS assimilation into operational forecast systems.

Eric Hackert↗

NASA NTRS2019

SPARROW: A Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds

This paper presents the results of a NIAC Phase I study into the use of a propulsively hopping robot for the exploration of Europa’s rugged, icy surface. Named the“Steam Propelled Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds,” SPARROW is a multi-thruster robot passively gimballed within a protective, spherical shell, which enables it to freely rotate, self-right, and tumble over chaotic terrains. SPARROW is envisioned as a soccerball-sized payload to a primary lander mission. Europa’s abundant surface ice would be harvested as an in situ propellant source. The principal objective of SPARROW would be to increase the science return of a Europa landed asset by enabling access to distal, spatially distributed geologic units. The design of mobility systems for Europa is challenging, due in part to its almost entirely unconstrained surface topography and strength. Images returned by Voyager and Galileo yielded resolutions on the order of hundreds of meters per pixel, with localized regions reaching 6 meters per pixel—still far larger than a typical rover. A key beneﬁt of SPARROW’s hopping, impact-tolerant design, is that it eliminates the need for a piori information on the terrain topography and surface strength; no surface reaction forces are required for motion. In this context, SPARROW is entirely terrain agnostic. In this paper we detail the results of three study objectives: i) to quantify the energy required to collect surface ice, change its phase, and maintain propellant temperature, ii) to identify control and estimation strategies that enable SPARROW to successfully reach, and return from, regions of scientiﬁc interest, and iii) to characterize the impact of SPARROW’s range on likely science return. Five water-based propellant architectures are presented alongside their mass, power, and volume requirements. Monte Carlo simulations of SPARROW hopping and tumbling over 1 km of glacial ice are summarized, characterizing SPARROW’s sensitivity to uncertainty in: initial conditions, thrust control, and cage-terrain interaction. Finally, a science traceability matrix is presented, which details the effect of sortie range on three science goals: constraining Europa’s evolutionary morphology, assessing sub-surface ocean habitability, and searching for life and/or biosignatures.

Phillips, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PACE OCI Flight Unit Pre-launch Spectral Characterization

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission [1] will extend and improve the data record of NASA’s satellite observations of global ocean biology, aerosols, and clouds. The Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) is the primary sensor on-board the PACE platform [2]. The OCI is a scanning radiometer with hyperspectral coverage from the ultraviolet (UV) to the near infrared (NIR) wavelength range and a fiber-coupled multiband filter spectrograph in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) spectral region. The OCI Flight Unit completed system level testing in November 2022 at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This paper presents the spectral characterization and performance of the OCI Flight Unit. The OCI Flight spectral performance was determined to be within design specifications and the characterization was measured within specified uncertainties.

PACE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pace Oci Flight Unit Pre-Launch Spectral Characterization

PACE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved Nondestructive Isotopic Analysis with Practical Microcalorimeter Gamma Spectrometers

Advances in both instrumentation and data analysis software are now enabling the first ultra-high-resolution microcalorimeter gamma spectrometers designed for implementation in nuclear facilities and analytical laboratories. With approximately ten times better energy resolution than high-purity germanium detectors, these instruments can overcome important uncertainty limits. Microcalorimeter gamma spectroscopy is intended to provide nondestructive isotopic analysis capabilities with sufficient precision and accuracy to reduce the need for sampling, chemical separations, and mass spectrometry to meet safeguards and security goals. Key milestones were the development of the SOFIA instrument (Spectrometer Optimized for Facility Integrated Applications) and the SAPPY software (Spectral Analysis Program in PYthon). SOFIA is a compact instrument that combines advances in large multiplexed transition-edge sensor arrays with optimized cryogenic performance to overcome many practical limitations of previous systems. With a 256-pixel multiplexed detector array capable of 5,000 counts per second, measurement time can be comparable to high-purity germanium detectors. SAPPY was developed to determine isotopic ratios in data from SOFIA and other microcalorimeter instruments with an approach similar to the widely-used FRAM software. SAPPY provides a flexible framework with rigorous uncertainty analysis for both microcalorimeter and high purity germanium (HPGe) data, allowing direct comparison. Here, we present current results from the SOFIA instrument, preliminary isotopic analysis using SAPPY, and describe how the technology is being used to explore uncertainty limits of nondestructive isotopic characterization, inform safeguards models, and extract improved nuclear data including gamma-ray branching ratios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2013

Lessons Learned from the AIRS Pre-Flight Radiometric Calibration

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flies on the NASA Aqua satellite and measures the upwelling hyperspectral earth radiance in the spectral range of 3.7-15.4 micron with a nominal ground resolution at nadir of 13.5 km. The AIRS spectra are achieved using a temperature controlled grating spectrometer and HgCdTe infrared linear arrays providing 2378 channels with a nominal spectral resolution of approximately 1200. The AIRS pre-flight tests that impact the radiometric calibration include a full system radiometric response (linearity), polarization response, and response vs scan angle (RVS). We re-derive the AIRS instrument radiometric calibration coefficients from the pre-flight polarization measurements, the response vs scan (RVS) angle tests as well as the linearity tests, and a recent lunar roll test that allowed the AIRS to view the moon. The data and method for deriving the coefficients is discussed in detail and the resulting values compared amongst the different tests. Finally, we examine the residual errors in the reconstruction of the external calibrator blackbody radiances and the efficacy of a new radiometric uncertainty model. Results show the radiometric calibration of AIRS to be excellent and the radiometric uncertainty model does a reasonable job of characterizing the errors.

Sounder↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robustness margin calculation with dynamic and real parametric uncertainty

The problem of robust stability in feedback control systems with real uncertain parameters and unmodeled dynamics, where the latter takes the form of one complex block dynamic uncertainty, is considered. A robustness margin Tm is defined with respect to such model uncertainty structure and robust stability is characterized in terms of it. An algorithm to calculate Tm and the closely related multivariable stability margin km and structured singular value mu measures of robust stability is developed. It is shown that other control problems, such as robust performance for real parametric uncertainty, can also be handled in this framework.

Sideris, Athanasios↗

NASA NTRS1991

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit

This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure (ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure [ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Climate↗

DOE OSTI2025

Source Characterization at Low Yields from Physics Experiment One A

The detonation of a well-recorded coupled explosion at the well-characterized Nevada National Security Site, as part of Physics Experiment One, has provided us with an opportunity to compare and contrast methods and results of yield estimation and other event characterization methods. Yield estimates are made using several methods, including local/regional magnitudes, waveform envelopes, acoustic amplitudes, joint seismoacoustic yield, and moment tensors. We include in our analysis a discussion and comparison of applicability, calibrations, assumptions, and uncertainties involved in each. With the exception of magnitude-based methods, all the techniques were more or less successful in recovering the known yield. It is, however, useful to be cognizant of requirements and calibrations, such as station coverage, emplacement conditions, propagation characterization, and uncertainties, to apply the methods to other areas with less complete information. We demonstrate that we can be successful at monitoring low-yield explosions using a variety of methods assuming that the signal-to-noise ratio is adequate at recording stations, and that the material properties are taken into account. Depth estimates are also important, particularly if one allows the possibility of a surface explosion.

Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National ↗

NASA NTRS2000

Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is quite small quite small. Discrepancies among the models arise from inaccuracies in Mie calculations, differing treatment of the angular scattering phase function, differing wavelength and angular resolution, and differing treatment of multiple scattering. These results imply the need for standardized radiative transfer methods tailored to the direct aerosol forcing problem. However, the relatively small spread in these results suggests that the uncertainty in forcing arising from the treatment of radiative forcing of a well-characterized aerosol at well-specified surface albedo is smaller than some of the other sources of uncertainty in estimates of direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols generally.

Boucher, O.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

This paper proposes a method to characterize Visual Flight Rules traffic around a regional airport. The applicability of the method is discussed in the context of Uncrewed Aircraft operations at a regional airport. The relation between traffic interaction uncertainty and operational capacity at the runway is also investigated. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules is analyzed from historical track data and visualized as heat maps generated at different altitudes. These are used to characterize the spatio-temporal uncertainty associated with traffic density, around a given airport, down to the runway. The traffic patterns at the runway are used to compute the runway capacity as a function of the probability of interaction with traffic operating under visual flight rules. Fort Worth Alliance is used as a representative regional airport for the study. Applications of the traffic characterization methods developed in this paper are also discussed.

VFR traffic, uncertainty, air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analysis of VFR Traffic Uncertainty and its Impact on Uncrewed Aircraft Operational Capacity at Regional Airports

VFR traffic↗