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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

River thorium concentrations can record bedrock fracture processes including some triggered by distant seismic events

Fractures are integral to the hydrology and geochemistry of watersheds, but our understanding of fracture dynamics is very limited because of the challenge of monitoring the subsurface. Here we provide evidence that long-term, high-frequency measurements of the river concentration of the ultra-trace element thorium (Th) can provide a signature of bedrock fracture processes spanning neighboring watersheds in Colorado. River Th concentrations show abrupt (subdaily) excursions and biexponential decay with approximately 1-day and 1-week time constants, concentration patterns that are distinct from all other solutes except beryllium and arsenic. The patterns are uncorrelated with daily precipitation records or seasonal trends in atmospheric deposition. Groundwater Th analyses are consistent with bedrock release and dilution upon mixing with river water. Most Th excursions have no seismic signatures that are detectable 50 km from the site, suggesting the Th concentrations can reveal aseismic fracture or fault events. We find, however, a weak statistical correlation between Th and seismic motion caused by distant earthquakes, possibly the first chemical signature of dynamic earthquake triggering, a phenomenon previously identified only through geophysical methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced System Thermal Fluids Solver Development for SAM

This work summarizes a feasibility study on testing numerical algorithms that are suitable and efficient for advanced system analysis code development under the mutli-physics framework, MOOSE. The key is the implementation of a high-order one-dimensional staggered-grid finite volume method (SG-FVM), and its direct interaction with the linear/nonlinear solver, PETSc. Leveraging the existing capabilities of the SAM code, significant code coverages were established in the finite volume method code. This in turn allows for a suite of test problems with different problem sizes and levels of complexity to be used to quantify the performance improvement of the finite volume method code. As evidently shown in this study, the implemented SG-FVM demonstrated superior performance improvement against a direct finite element method implementation through MOOSE for the wide range of selected problems. On two computer systems, the speedup was observed to be significant, with at least one order of magnitude of solving time reduction. In addition, for a complex reactor model, transient simulation was performed using the finite volume method code, the results of which agree very well with the reference results from the finite element method code. Overall, this study demonstrates a successful feasibility study on the proposed numerical algorithms and software structure to support advanced system analysis tool development. In this work, short-term priority development and testing items were identified, and long-term code adoption and integration plans were made for the eventual deployment of the finite volume method in the SAM code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed latent neural operator for real-time predictions of time-dependent parametric PDEs

Deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown significant promise as surrogate models for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling accurate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, when applied to systems with high-dimensional input-output mappings arising from large numbers of spatial and temporal collocation points, these models often require heavily overparameterized networks, leading to long training times. Latent DeepONet addresses some of these challenges by introducing a two-step approach: first learning a reduced latent space using a separate model, followed by operator learning within this latent space. While efficient, this method is inherently data-driven and lacks mechanisms for incorporating physical laws, limiting its robustness and generalizability in data-scarce settings. Here, in this work, we propose PI-Latent-NO, a physics-informed latent neural operator framework that integrates governing physics directly into the learning process. Our architecture features two coupled DeepONets trained end-to-end: a Latent-DeepONet that learns a low-dimensional representation of the solution, and a Reconstruction-DeepONet that maps this latent representation back to the physical space. By embedding PDE constraints into the training via automatic differentiation, our method eliminates the need for labeled training data and ensures physics-consistent predictions. The proposed framework is both memory and compute-efficient, exhibiting near-constant scaling with problem size and demonstrating significant speedups over traditional physics-informed operator models. We validate our approach on a range of parametric PDEs, showcasing its accuracy, scalability, and suitability for real-time prediction in complex physical systems.

Latent representations↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Roadmap for Edge Computing Enabled Automated Multidimensional Transmission Electron Microscopy

The advent of modern, high-speed electron detectors has made the collection of multidimensional hyperspectral transmission electron microscopy datasets, such as 4D-STEM, a routine. However, many microscopists find such experiments daunting since analysis, collection, long-term storage, and networking of such datasets remain challenging. Some common issues are their large and unwieldy size that often are several gigabytes, non-standardized data analysis routines, and a lack of clarity about the computing and network resources needed to utilize the electron microscope. The existing computing and networking bottlenecks introduce significant penalties in each step of these experiments, and thus, real-time analysis-driven automated experimentation for multidimensional TEM is challenging. One solution is to integrate microscopy with edge computing, where moderately powerful computational hardware performs the preliminary analysis before handing off the heavier computation to high-performance computing (HPC) systems. In this work, we trace the roots of computation in modern electron microscopy, demonstrate deep learning experiments running on an edge system, and discuss the networking requirements for tying together microscopes, edge computers, and HPC systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Mineral Extraction and Water Processing: Application Development of Mesofluidic Separation Technology

This project explored the development of mesofluidic devices and methods to provide a range of new capabilities with a focus on selective mineral extraction and cost-effective water treatment systems. Mineral separation and water treatment technologies are typically slow, bulky, expensive, time and energy intensive processes. This leads to very large, expensive processing plants that are often inefficient and produce low quality products and large volumes of waste. Technologies used in mineral extraction and water treatment have changed little in the last 50-100 years. The new technology, based upon mesofluidic separation devices, could disruptively change the state of the art and alter long established economics. The new technologies explored will provide systems with much smaller footprints, higher throughput, modular components easily integrated into existing industrial processes and plants, lower cost, and novel separation capabilities. The results from this effort contributed to a wide range of new capabilities and numerous inventions disclosures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication and Testing of Solid-Solution Strengthened Corrosion Resistant Alloys For Service in Molten Fluoride Environments

The demand for higher system thermal efficiencies requires the operation of power generation cycles and heat conversion systems at progressively higher temperatures. As the system operating temperature increases, existing materials may not provide adequate mechanical properties or environmental compatibility or both. There is an increasing commercial interest in the development and deployment of liquid-fueled Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Hastelloy®N, the highest performing candidate MSR structural alloy, is not capable of operations at temperatures above 700°C, thus limiting the performance of these systems. Using an Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)-approach and small laboratory scale heats, ORNL developed a class of patented alloys covered by U.S. Patent 9, 435, 011 B2, “Creep-resistant, Cobalt-free alloys for high temperature, liquid-salt heat exchanger systems,” similar to Hastelloy®N in that they are primarily solid solution strengthened. In contrast to precipitation strengthened alloys, the microstructure of solid solution alloys and hence the high temperature mechanical properties are stable for extended periods of time allowing long reactor operating life. The new alloys have shown to possess good resistance to liquid fluorides at temperatures up to 850°C and have significantly improved creep properties when compared to Hastelloy®N. The purpose of the CRADA project was for ORNL to collaborate with Haynes International- a materials producer, MetalTek International- a foundry, and Kairos Power – an advanced reactor developer – to scale-up selected alloys, evaluate their properties, and identify one solid solution strengthened alloy that can meet the property requirements for the reactor being developed by Kairos Power and other similar liquid fluoride-salt cooled reactors. As part of the project, eight alloys were down-selected and fabricated in larger industrial scale heats by Haynes International. Resistance to molten salt was evaluated in flowing FLiNaK and FLiBe by Kairos Power using their Rotating Cage Loop (RCL) system. Accounting for iron deposition during these tests, the new alloys displayed very low net mass change showing excellent corrosion performance in molten salt. Creep properties evaluated at ORNL were found to be better than that of Hastelloy®N and 316 stainless steel. Long-term stabilities of the alloys evaluated by Haynes International showed that these alloys have excellent thermal stability in the temperature range 704.4-815.6°C, with the change in strength and ductility being less than 10-15% after a 4000-hour exposure at 815.6°C. Autogenously Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) welded samples showed less than 10% change in yield strength / ultimate tensile strength / total elongation compared to the basemetal, indicating that the alloys have excellent weldability. Three parts were successfully investment-cast using one alloy with very little voiding showing feasibility of fabricating parts using the casting process. This project enabled extensive interaction between the material producer Haynes International, casting supplier MetalTek, and reactor developer Kairos Power. This facilitated testing of materials and components produced using the newly developed alloys by the end-user. This allowed the generation of critical dataset required for down-selection of a few promising alloys for further development. This data is also currently being shared with other reactor designers for them to evaluate the suitability of this alloy for their reactor design. The availability of this alloy will ultimately enable the design and development and deployment of MSRs with increased temperature of operation and thus, improved efficiencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication and Testing of Solid-Solution Strengthened Corrosion Resistant Alloys For Service in Molten Fluoride Environments

The demand for higher system thermal efficiencies requires the operation of power generation cycles and heat conversion systems at progressively higher temperatures. As the system operating temperature increases, existing materials may not provide adequate mechanical properties or environmental compatibility or both. There is an increasing commercial interest in the development and deployment of liquid-fueled Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Hastelloy®N, the highest performing candidate MSR structural alloy, is not capable of operations at temperatures above 700°C, thus limiting the performance of these systems. Using an Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)-approach and small laboratory scale heats, ORNL developed a class of patented alloys covered by U.S. Patent 9,435,011 B2, “Creep-resistant, Cobalt-free alloys for high temperature, liquid-salt heat exchanger systems,” similar to Hastelloy®N in that they are primarily solid solution strengthened. In contrast to precipitation strengthened alloys, the microstructure of solid solution alloys and hence the high temperature mechanical properties are stable for extended periods of time allowing long reactor operating life. The new alloys have shown to possess good resistance to liquid fluorides at temperatures up to 850°C and have significantly improved creep properties when compared to Hastelloy®N. The purpose of the CRADA project was for ORNL to collaborate with Haynes International- a materials producer, MetalTek International- a foundry, and Kairos Power – an advanced reactor developer – to scale-up selected alloys, evaluate their properties, and identify one solid solution strengthened alloy that can meet the property requirements for the reactor being developed by Kairos Power and other similar liquid fluoride-salt cooled reactors. As part of the project, eight alloys were down-selected and fabricated in larger industrial scale heats by Haynes International. Resistance to molten salt was evaluated in flowing FLiNaK and FLiBe by Kairos Power using their Rotating Cage Loop (RCL) system. Accounting for iron deposition during these tests, the new alloys displayed very low net mass change showing excellent corrosion performance in molten salt. Creep properties evaluated at ORNL were found to be better than that of Hastelloy®N and 316 stainless steel. Long-term stabilities of the alloys evaluated by Haynes International showed that these alloys have excellent thermal stability in the temperature range 704.4-815.6°C, with the change in strength and ductility being less than 10-15% after a 4000-hour exposure at 815.6°C. Autogenously Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) welded samples showed less than 10% change in yield strength / ultimate tensile strength / total elongation compared to the basemetal, indicating that the alloys have excellent weldability. Three parts were successfully investment-cast using one alloy with very little voiding showing feasibility of fabricating parts using the casting process. This project enabled extensive interaction between the material producer Haynes International, casting supplier MetalTek, and reactor developer Kairos Power. This facilitated testing of materials and components produced using the newly developed alloys by the end-user. This allowed the generation of critical dataset required for down-selection of a few promising alloys for further development. This data is also currently being shared with other reactor designers for them to evaluate the suitability of this alloy for their reactor design. The availability of this alloy will ultimately enable the design and development and deployment of MSRs with increased temperature of operation and thus, improved efficiencies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the prediction of daily reservoir releases over the CONUS using conditioned LSTM

Reservoirs play a vital role in regulating streamflow timing and variability for hydroelectricity, flood control, water supply, irrigation, and recreation. Despite their importance, many reservoirs lack comprehensive operational guidelines, making their management complex due to conflicting operational objectives. Hence traditional policy-based reservoir models often fail to capture real-world conditions accurately and they depend on perfect streamflow predictions, which are not always available. In contrast, data-driven models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks offer a robust alternative. This study introduces an approach that integrates reservoir characteristics—such as main use, climate, and maximum capacity—into the LSTM model to enhance reservoir release predictions. Using data from nearly 200 reservoirs in the contiguous United States (CONUS), our conditioned LSTM model (LSTM_cond) was compared with both the vanila LSTM and a traditional policy-based approach. Furthermore, our results show that while both LSTM_cond and LSTM perfoms better than the policy-based approach, LSTM_cond consistently outperforms LSTM for hydroelectric, water supply, irrigation, and recreation reservoirs. The KGE median values for LSTM_cond for out-sample reservoirs are 0.764, 0.565, 0.821, and 0.779, respectively, for the aforementioned reservoir types, which are consistently higher that the corresponding KGE values of 0.737, 0.413, 0.775, and 0.713 of LSTM, demonstrating its advantages in improving generalizability.

CONUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlative Surface Imaging Reveals Chemical Signatures for Bacterial Hotspots on Plant Roots

The rhizosphere is arguably the most complex microbial habitat on earth, comprising an integrated network of plant roots, soil and a highly diverse microbial community (the rhizosphere microbiome)1. Understanding, predicting and controlling plant-microbe interactions in the rhizosphere will allow us to harness the plant microbiome as a means to increase or restore plant ecosystem productivity, improve plant responses to a wide range of environmental perturbations, and mitigate effects of climate change by designing ecosystems for long-term soil carbon storage1. To this end, it is imperative to develop new molecular approaches with high spatial resolution to capture interactions at the plant-microbe, microbe-microbe, and plant-plant interfaces. In this work, we designed an imaging sample holder that allows integrated surface imaging tools to map the same locations of a plant root-microbe interface with submicron lateral resolutions, providing novel in vivo analysis of root-microbe interactions. Specifically, confocal fluorescence microscopy, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were used for the first time for correlative imaging of the Brachypodium distachyon root and its interaction with Pseudomonas SW25, a typical plant growth-promoting soil bacterium. Imaging data suggest that the root surface is inhomogeneous and that the interaction between Pseudomonas and Brachypodium roots was confined to only few spots along the sampled root segments and that the bacterial attachment spots were enriched in Na- and S-related and high-mass organic species. We conclude that attachment of the Pseudomonas cells to the root surface is outcompeted by strong root-soil mineral interactions but facilitated by formation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS).

Plant root, Plant growth-promoting bacteria, soil,↗
DOE OSTI2020

Positive correlation between wood δ 15 N and stream nitrate concentrations in two temperate deciduous forests

Abstract A limitation to understanding drivers of long-term trends in terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability in forests and its subsequent influence on stream nitrate export is a general lack of integrated analyses using long-term data on terrestrial and aquatic N cycling at comparable spatial scales. Here we analyze relationships between stream nitrate concentrations and wood δ 15 N records (n = 96 trees) across five neighboring headwater catchments in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and within a single catchment in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic province in the eastern United States. Climatic, acidic deposition, and forest disturbance datasets were developed to elucidate the influence of these factors on terrestrial N availability through time. We hypothesized that spatial and temporal variation of terrestrial N availability, for which tree-ring δ 15 N records serve as a proxy, affects the variation of stream nitrate concentration across space and time. Across space at the Blue Ridge study sites, stream nitrate concentration increased linearly with increasing catchment mean wood δ 15 N. Over time, stream nitrate concentrations decreased with decreasing wood δ 15 N in five of the six catchments. Wood δ 15 N showed a significant negative relationship with disturbance and acidic deposition. Disturbance likely exacerbated N limitation by inducing nitrate leaching and ultimately enhancing vegetative uptake. As observed elsewhere, lower rates of acidic deposition and subsequent deacidification of soils may increase terrestrial N availability. Despite the ephemeral modifications of terrestrial N availability by these two drivers and climate, long-term declines in terrestrial N availability were robust and have likely driven much of the declines in stream nitrate concentration throughout the central Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

BRAKER3: Fully automated genome annotation using RNA-seq and protein evidence with GeneMark-ETP, AUGUSTUS, and TSEBRA

Gene prediction has remained an active area of bioinformatics research for a long time. Still, gene prediction in large eukaryotic genomes presents a challenge that must be addressed by new algorithms. The amount and significance of the evidence available from transcriptomes and proteomes vary across genomes, between genes, and even along a single gene. User-friendly and accurate annotation pipelines that can cope with such data heterogeneity are needed. The previously developed annotation pipelines BRAKER1 and BRAKER2 use RNA-seq or protein data, respectively, but not both. A further significant performance improvement integrating all three data types was made by the recently released GeneMark-ETP. We here present the BRAKER3 pipeline that builds on GeneMark-ETP and AUGUSTUS, and further improves accuracy using the TSEBRA combiner. BRAKER3 annotates protein-coding genes in eukaryotic genomes using both short-read RNA-seq and a large protein database, along with statistical models learned iteratively and specifically for the target genome. We benchmarked the new pipeline on genomes of 11 species under an assumed level of relatedness of the target species proteome to available proteomes. BRAKER3 outperforms BRAKER1 and BRAKER2. The average transcript-level F1-score is increased by about 20 percentage points on average, whereas the difference is most pronounced for species with large and complex genomes. BRAKER3 also outperforms other existing tools, MAKER2, Funannotate, and FINDER. The code of BRAKER3 is available on GitHub and as a ready-to-run Docker container for execution with Docker or Singularity. Overall, BRAKER3 is an accurate, easy-to-use tool for eukaryotic genome annotation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of almost strong edge modes in spin chains away from integrability

Results are presented for the dynamics of an almost strong edge mode which is the quasistable Majorana edge mode occurring in nonintegrable spin chains. The dynamics of the edge mode is studied using exact diagonalization, and compared with time evolution with respect to an effective semi-infinite model in Krylov space obtained from the recursion method. The effective Krylov Hamiltonian is found to resemble a spatially inhomogeneous Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model where the hopping amplitude increases linearly with distance into the bulk, typical of thermalizing systems, but also has a staggered or dimerized structure superimposed on it. Here, the nonperturbatively long lifetime of the edge mode is shown to be due to this staggered structure which diminishes the effectiveness of the linearly growing hopping amplitude. On taking the continuum limit of the Krylov Hamiltonian, the edge mode is found to be equivalent to the quasistable mode of a Dirac Hamiltonian on a half line, with a mass which is nonzero over a finite distance, before terminating into a gapless metallic bulk. The analytic estimates are found to be in good agreement with the numerically obtained lifetimes of the edge mode.

1-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cross-scale modeling of storm surge, tide, and inundation in Mid-Atlantic Bight and New York City during Hurricane Sandy, 2012

Driven by high-resolution NAM (North America Mesoscale) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields, a 3-D unstructured grid SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model) was applied to simulate total water level in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The simulated storm surge, tide, significant wave height, and wave peak period results compared favorably with NOAA observations along US East Coast, Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. The maximum total water level at The Battery in the New York Harbor was accurately simulated with an absolute error of less than 0.08 m (out of 2.9 m peak surge) and a timing difference less than 10 min, which includes the effects on the order of 0.1–0.3 m (5–10%) from the coastal setup induced by the surface waves. The scenario comparisons of (1) “NAM” versus “ECMWF”, (2) “2-D” versus “3-D”, and (3) “with” versus “without” wind wave model were examined. The 3-D barotropic model forced by ECMWF including the effects of wind waves performs the best, attributed to wave-induced radiation stress and reduction of bottom stress when the 3-D version is used. Simultaneously, the ELCIRC-Sub model, using a 5-m topography/bathymetry sub-grid and a regular 200-m resolution finite volume computational model grid, was developed to simulate the street-level inundation in New York City. The momentum and mass fluxes calculated by the coarser base grid model were effectively coupled with the sub-grid so that running a full-blown high-resolution base model is not required. The ELCIRC-Sub model uses MPI (Message Passing Interface) parallel computing to enlarge the coverage of the land surface and an efficient non-linear solver to improve the accuracy of the wetting-and-drying processes. The temporal comparisons of modeled water level with NOAA's tidal stations and USGS' rapid-deployed gauges showed overall performance with an average error of 0.1 m. Particularly, ELCIRC-Sub captured the profile of the highest peak surge (3.9 m), which rose 2 m within 3 hour at Kings Point, NY. The spatial comparisons of the modeled peak water level at 80 surveyed locations showed an average error less than 0.13 m. The modeled maximum inundation extent also matched well with an 80% hit rate against FEMA's Hurricane Sandy maximum flooding extent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Holographic open quantum systems: toy models and analytic properties of thermal correlators

We present a unified picture of open quantum systems, the theory of a system probing a noisy thermal environment, distilling lessons learnt from previous holographic analyses. Our treatment is applicable both when the system is coupled to short-lived (Markovian), and long-lived (non-Markovian) environmental degrees of freedom. The thermal environment is modeled using an asymptotically AdS black hole, and the systems of interest are simple probe field theories. The effective stochastic dynamics of the system is governed by real-time thermal correlators, which we compute using the gravitational Schwinger-Keldysh (grSK) geometry. We describe the structure of arbitrary tree-level contact and exchange Witten diagrams in the grSK geometry. In particular, we argue, that all such diagrams reduce to integrals supported on a single copy of the exterior of the black hole. The integrand is obtained as a multiple discontinuity of a function comprising ingoing boundary-bulk propagators, monodromy functions which appear as radial Boltzmann weights, and vertex factors. These results allow us to deduce the analytic structure of real-time thermal n-point functions in holographic CFTs. We illustrate the general statements by a two-dimensional toy model, dual to fields in the BTZ background, which we argue captures many of the essential features of generic open holographic QFTs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

(U) A Theoretical Study of Asay Foil Trajectories (V.02)

We consider the trajectory of a generic Asay foil ejecta momentum diagnostic sensor, for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. To do so, we build upon a previously established mathematical formalism derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors (i.e., piezopins). First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source areal mass function (“source model”). This defines an integro-differential equation (IDE) for the foil trajectory. When ejecta production is instantaneous - as is generally assumed in momentum diagnostic data analyses - the IDE leads to an implicit and easily calculable closed-form solution for the foil trajectory in a perfect system, as long as the ejecta particle velocity distribution is twice-integrable. General properties of the instant-production trajectory solution indicate the existence of a boundary condition the particle velocity distribution must satisfy in order for the analytically predicted foil trajectories to be compatible with certain features commonly observed in foil data. This boundary condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezopin data. Armed with the analytic solution for instant production, we also consider various techniques used to extract time-dependent cumulative ejecta masses from foil trajectories, and derive an expression for the error imposed by using an approximated equation of motion. This analytic trajectory solution furthermore makes it possible to examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of a normalized implied velocity; we derive conditions under which this methodology is and is not meaningful. We also propose a strategy for extending the instant-production trajectory solution to time-dependent source functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term Dynamical Stability in the Outer Solar System. I. The Regular and Chaotic Evolution of the 34 Largest Trans-Neptunian Objects

We carried out an extensive analysis of the stability of the outer solar system, making use of the frequency analysis technique over short-term integrations of nearly 100,000 test particles, as well as a statistical analysis of 200 1 Gyr long numerical simulations, which consider the mutual perturbations of the giant planets and the 34 largest trans-Neptunian objects (we have called all 34 objects “dwarf planets,” DPs, even if probably only the largest of them are true DPs). From the frequency analysis, we produced statistical diffusion maps for a wide region of the a–e phase-space plane; we also present the average diffusion time for orbits as a function of perihelion. We later turned our attention to the 34 DPs, making an individualized analysis for each of them and producing a first approximation of their future stability. From the 200 distinct realizations of the orbital evolution of the 34 DPs, we classified the sample into three categories, including 17 stable, 11 unstable, and 6 resonant objects; we also found that, statistically, two objects from the sample will leave the trans-Neptunian region within the next gigayear, most likely being ejected from the solar system, but with a nonnegligible probability of going inside the orbit of Neptune, either to collide with a giant planet or even falling to the inner solar system, where our simulations are no longer able to resolve their continuous evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗