OCTOL Modeling and Calibration
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Enhancing Modeling and Simulation for Effective Protection Strategies
This report was created by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to document the principles and methodology of performance data collection and integration with modeling and simulation tools to better facilitate the performance evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS). Results and conclusions from the use of modeling and simulation tools are only as good as the data employed by the tools when conducting analysis. Acquiring the performance testing data necessary to ensure effective evaluation can be a complex and sometimes daunting process. It is the desire of the organization to provide guidance that eases the burdens associated with pursuit of these objectives. This document draws heavily upon longstanding principles of systems engineering that have been developed and employed by SNL in the discipline of security since the 1970s. The scope of this document is constrained to the testing of system components and integration of data that is applicable within the context of PPS performance analysis using two tools that have been developed by SNL, PathTrace© and Scribe3D©. For guidance related to testing and evaluation more broadly, the manuals and reports referenced by this document can be consulted.
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Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype
Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.
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Cyber-Physical Tabletop Exercise for Small Modular Reactor Facilities
U.S. nuclear power facilities face increasing challenges in meeting dynamic security requirements caused by evolving and expanding threats while keeping costs reasonable to make nuclear energy competitive. This evolving threat landscape includes adversaries having offensive cyber capabilities to attack information technology (IT) systems and operation technology (OT) systems. These adversaries may have the ability to attack the physical protection system (PPS) networks with potential consequential impacts that could degrade the effectiveness of the PPS. These cyber attacks may also be used to attack the safety and operational systems used to operate and ensure the safety of the reactor. Additionally, adversaries may gain access to unmanned aerial systems (UAS) that may be used to provide reconnaissance and surveillance of the facility, provide information to the adversaries, and be equipped with kinetic capabilities such as explosives or weapons that can be used to directly attack the facility. The Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security (ARSS) program funded Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to develop a cyber-physical tabletop exercise (TTX). This exercise was conducted on a hypothetical small modular reactor (SMR) facility, and only considered a potential adversary cyber attack on the PPS to a physical attack on the hypothetical facility to achieve a radiological release. This cyber-physical TTX is meant to provide lessons learned to integrate the cyber security system design and the physical protection system (PPS) design to decrease design, operation, and maintenance costs as well as increase effectiveness for defending against design basis threat attacks at the facility. This TTX will also provide a framework and method for SMR and microreactor vendors to conduct their own cyber-physical TTX and gain impactful insights to improving the cyber and physical protection system design for their SMR or microreactor facility design.
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Summer 2024 INL Intern Poster Session Submission - Brian Schumitz
This LRS submission is my poster for the INL Intern Poster Session, Summer 2024. Abstract: The Software Engineering and Cybersecurity Lab (SECL) at Montana State University has developed PIQUE, a system for evaluating software quality. PIQUE's adaptability allows for language-specific static-analysis operations, including a model for assessing cloud microservice ecosystems. These ecosystems often rely on Docker for efficient deployment and management of containerized services. Our research focuses on evaluating the network quality within these microservice ecosystems. To automate this process, we're utilizing Snort, an open-source intrusion detection system renowned for its ability to detect and log network traffic. By leveraging Snort's customizable rules, we aim to construct comprehensive testing methods for measuring and quantifying the network quality based on traffic between Docker containers. This research aims to enhance the overall security and reliability of cloud microservice ecosystems by providing automated and robust quality evaluation mechanisms, ultimately contributing to the advancement of software engineering practices in these environments
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Characterization and thermometry of dissipatively stabilized steady states
In this work we study the properties of dissipatively stabilized steady states of noisy quantum algorithms, exploring the extent to which they can be well approximated as thermal distributions, and proposing methods to extract the effective temperature T. We study an algorithm called the relaxational quantum eigensolver (RQE), which is one of a family of algorithms that attempt to find ground states and balance error in noisy quantum devices. In RQE, we weakly couple a second register of auxiliary ‘shadow’ qubits to the primary system in Trotterized evolution, thus engineering an approximate zero-temperature bath by periodically resetting the auxiliary qubits during the algorithm’s runtime. Balancing the infinite temperature bath of random gate error, RQE returns states with an average energy equal to a constant fraction of the ground state. We probe the steady states of this algorithm for a range of base error rates, using several methods for estimating both T and deviations from thermal behavior. In particular, we both confirm that the steady states of these systems are often well-approximated by thermal distributions, and show that the same resources used for cooling can be adopted for thermometry, yielding a fairly reliable measure of the temperature. These methods could be readily implemented in near-term quantum hardware, and for stabilizing and probing Hamiltonians where simulating approximate thermal states is hard for classical computers.
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mystic: scientific AI for automated real-time engineering design under uncertainty
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models
This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.
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Connecting Minds: AI Use Cases to Bridge Power Systems and Large Language Models for Practical Applications
Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.
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Total Effective Dose from Radiologic Emissions from INL Facilities for Calculation of Population Dose for the INL 2024 Annual Site Environmental Report
Total effective radiation dose from airborne releases was calculated using air dispersion modeling performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Idaho Falls Office using their HYSPLIT computer model (Stein et al. 2015; Draxler et al. 2013), and the Dose Multi-Media (DOSEMM) dose assessment model (Rood 2019) . The objective of these calculations was to provide a grid of total effective dose across a model domain that encompasses a 50-mile (80-km) radius from any Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site source. In addition to INL Site sources, releases from the Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL) (IF-683) and IF-603 located at the INL Research Center (IRC) within the Idaho Falls city limits were also included. Due to tracking limitations, radionuclides released from IF-611 and IF-603 are modeled as released from IF-603. The dose results will be combined with GIS software to compute a total population dose for the calendar year (CY) 2024 and will be reported in the INL Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER). This report does not cover the population dose calculation and only documents generation of the gridded dose file.
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Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: A View From NREL
At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory—computational science, high-performance computing, applied mathematics, advanced computer science, visualization, and data play a pivotal role in advancing energy abundance, affordability, security, and reliability. From fundamental scientifc discovery to systems engineering and analysis, NREL researchers tackle market-relevant challenges to develop solutions for an independent energy system that is reliable, resilient and secure. Collaborative partnerships with industry, government, and academia ensure that our research remains cutting edge, impactful, applicable, and aligned with real-world energy needs. This special issue of Computing in Science & Engineering highlights exemplary NREL projects where computational tools and methodologies drive discovery and accelerate innovation in scalable and integrated energy systems. The featured articles explore the role of computational modeling, high-performance computing, generative AI, and adaptive computing in advancing independent energy solutions, optimizing sustainability research, and enhancing decision-making for energy solutions using a broad mix of energy technologies. Here, these contributions demonstrate how NREL’s computational research bridges the gap between theoretical advancements and practical implementation, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration and a commitment to innovation, with a focus on translating computational excellence into real-world impact, thus accelerate progress toward national energy goals. By showcasing cutting-edge research at the intersection of computational science and energy systems, this issue aims to inspire and inform researchers, practitioners, and policymakers dedicated to shaping a more reliable energy future.
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Cyber-Informed Engineering for Strategic Planning
The CIE Guide for Engaging Organizational Leadership: Board and C-Suite describes how to apply CIE at the senior-level of organizational management. This guidance integrates CIE concepts into theory and practice of guiding coalition leadership to improve permeation of CIE concepts throughout organizational culture. This guide incorporates feedback from CIE community of practice volunteers in a study of how business administrative and strategic planning and management guidance and course materials can be applied to CIE implementation throughout an organization's principles and processes. This guide defines the interests guiding senior leadership, managers and supervisors, and technicians and workers involved in creating and operating and maintaining systems, and cultural/ historical/ political assumptions or influences shaped the landscape that could facilitate or impede development of CIE. The included guidance for organizational strategic management and leadership can be imbedded into contract guidance based on the CIE implementation guide and lessons learned from industry application.
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Challenges and Vision for Standardization of Biopolymer Data Sets for Machine Learning
Machine learning (ML) is transforming materials research, yet potential for biopolymer discovery remains constrained by fragmented data and nonstandardized reporting. Biopolymers differ significantly from synthetic polymers, requiring specialized approaches to represent their biosynthetic origins, hierarchical structures, and application-specific metrics. In this Perspective, we identify three core challenges limiting biopolymer representation: information encoding, data quality, and data sharing. We describe the most pressing issues and propose commensurate approaches to address each key challenge. Recommendations include the design and adoption of biopolymer-specific fingerprinting and representation frameworks, development of hybrid human-large language model (LLM) data extraction strategies, and expanding Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR)-compliant repositories. We propose a robust foundation to define interoperable, high-quality data sets that capture the full context of biopolymer materials. Standardized metadata, shared ontologies, and community-driven infrastructure would enable scalable, reproducible workflows and accelerate the ML-driven development of biopolymers.
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Category-specific topological learning of metal–organic frameworks
Category-specific topological learning enables efficient and accurate prediction of various properties of metal–organic frameworks.
Gas selectivity↗
Prompt Phrase Ordering Using Large Language Models in HPC: Evaluating Prompt Sensitivity
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated effective performance in domain-specific tasks, often requiring a well-designed prompt to guide their responses. However, optimizing the right prompt is challenging due to prompt sensitivity—the phenomenon where small changes in the prompt can lead to significant variations in performance. In this study, we evaluate prompt performance by examining all permutations of independent phrases to investigate prompt sensitivity and robustness. We used two datasets: the GSM8k dataset, which assesses mathematical reasoning, and a custom template prompt for summarizing database metadata. Our goal was to evaluate the performance across all permutations of a sequence of prompt phrases. The study was conducted using the llama3-instruct- 7B model hosted on Ollama, with computations parallelized in a high-performance computing environment. By comparing the average index of phrases in the best and worst-performing prompts, we found that the order of independent phrases within a prompt significantly impacts LLM performance. Additionally, we used Hamming distance to assess changes between phrase orderings, concluding that prompt modifications can dramatically affect scores, often by almost random chance. These findings support existing research on prompt sensitivity. We discuss the challenges of prompt optimization, noting that altering phrases in a successful prompt does not always result in another successful prompt.
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Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing
To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.
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High-order limiting methods using maximum principle bounds derived from the Boltzmann equation I: Euler equations
The use of limiting methods for high-order numerical approximations of hyperbolic conservation laws generally requires defining an admissible region/bounds for the solution. In this work, we present a novel approach for computing solution bounds and limiting for the Euler equations through the kinetic representation provided by the Boltzmann equation, which allows for extending limiters designed for linear advection directly to the Euler equations. Given an arbitrary set of solution values to compute bounds over (e.g., numerical stencil) and a desired linear advection limiter, the proposed approach yields an analytic expression for the admissible region of particle distribution function values, which may be numerically integrated to yield a set of bounds for the density, momentum, and total energy. Further, these solution bounds are shown to preserve positivity of density/pressure/internal energy and, when paired with a limiting technique, can robustly resolve strong discontinuities while recovering high-order accuracy in smooth regions without any ad hoc corrections (e.g., relaxing the bounds). This approach is demonstrated in the context of an explicit unstructured high-order discontinuous Galerkin/flux reconstruction scheme for a variety of difficult problems in gas dynamics, including cases with extreme shocks and shock-vortex interactions. Furthermore, this work presents a foundation for limiting techniques for more complex macroscopic governing equations that can be derived from an underlying kinetic representation for which admissible solution bounds are not well-understood.
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A parallel and performance portable implementation of a full-field crystal plasticity model
We have developed a parallel implementation of an Elasto-Viscoplastic Fast Fourier Transform-based (EVPFFT) micromechanical solver to enable computationally efficient crystal plasticity modeling for polycrystalline materials. Our primary focus lies in achieving performance portability, allowing a single EVPFFT implementation to run optimally on various homogeneous architectures, including multi-core Central Processing Units (CPUs), as well as on heterogeneous computer architectures comprising multi-core CPUs and Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) from different vendors. To accomplish this goal, we have leveraged MATAR, a C++ software library that simplifies the creation and utilization of multidimensional dense or sparse matrix and array data structures. These data structures are designed to be portable across diverse architectures through the use of Kokkos, a performance-portable library. Additionally, we have employed the Message Passing Interface (MPI) to efficiently distribute the computational workload among processors. The heFFTe (Highly Efficient FFT for Exascale) library is used to facilitate the performance portability of the fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) computation. The computational performance of EVPFFT is evaluated and presented in terms of parallel scalability and simulation runtime on different high-performance computing (HPC) architectures. As a result, the utility of the developed framework to efficiently simulate the micro-mechanical fields in polycrystalline microstructures in engineering applications is discussed.
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