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DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Capturing the full benefits of bifacial modules to approach an LCOE of 3c/kWh through a regional optimization of the electrical architecture (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report for the Cypress Creek Renewables project focused on bifacial plant performance. The project consisted of building a heavily instrumented Bifacial test sites with several cell technologies; instrumenting >1 MW scale commercial sites with both monofacial and bifacial arrays in order to understand real-world differences; and to engage with the performance modeling and financial stakeholder community to improve accuracy and increase investor confidence. The data from the test and commercial sites has been used to validate and improve the accuracy of both physics-based and reduced order modeling software. The heavily instrumented nature has been used to understand how light contributions from the sky and reflected from the ground impact different portions of the module and array while the data from the commercial sites has directly impacted how independent engineers model production from bifacial systems. The latter point has led to an increase in over 2% compared to earlier predictions. Even this modest increase has had significant downward pressure on project LCOE. As the data and results are both public, this refined modeling and empirical evidence for a higher bifacial gain than modeled, the benefits to the broader US solar community are assured.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Characterization of Thin Film Solar Cells

Polycrystalline thin-film solar cells have reached a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with all other sources of electricity. The technology has significantly improved in recent years, with laboratory cell efficiencies for cadmium telluride (CdTe), perovskites, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) each exceeding 22 percent. Both CdTe and CIGS solar panels are now produced at the gigawatt scale. However, there are ongoing challenges, including the continued need to improve performance and stability while reducing cost. Advancing polycrystalline solar cell technology demands an in-depth understanding of efficiency, scaling, and degradation mechanisms, which requires sophisticated characterization methods. These methods will enable reseachers and manufacturers to improve future solar modules and systems. This work provides researchers with a concise overview of the status of thin-film solar cell technology and characterization. Chapters describe material systems and their properties and then provide an in-depth look at relevant characterization methods and the learning facilitated by each of these. Following an introductory chapter, the book provides systematic and thorough coverage of the following topics: trends to improve CdTe solar cell performance; Cu(In,Ga)Se2 and related materials; perovskite solar cells; photovoltaic device modelling; luminescence and thermal imaging of thin-film photovoltaic materials, devices, and modules; application of spatially resolved spectroscopy characterization techniques on Cu2ZnSnSe4 solar cells; time-resolved photoluminescence characterization of polycrystalline thin-film solar cells; fundamentals of electrical material and device spectroscopies applied to thin-film polycrystalline chalcogenide solar cells; nanometer-scale characterization of thin-film solar cells by atomic force microscopy-based electrical probes; scanning transmission electron microscopy characterization of solar cells; photoelectron spectroscopy methods in solar cell research; time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography; and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance characterization for photovoltaic applications. The final chapter provides an overview and describes future prospects.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

NASA NTRS1957

Summary of Scale-Model Thrust-Reverser Investigation

An investigation was undertaken to determine the characteristics of several basic types of thrust-reverser. Models of three types, target, tailpipe cascade, and ring cascade, were tested with unheated air. The effects of design variables on reverse-thrust performance, reversed-flow boundaries, and thrust modulation characteristics were determined.

Povolny, John H↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of ECRAM materials and devices

As the limits of Moore’s Law approaches, new computing paradigms are developing to breakthrough this bottleneck. One such computer architecture is neuromorphic computing, which models the brain. Electrochemical random-access memory (ECRAM) is a low power and energy efficient memory due to characteristics, such as in-memory compute, ion modulation of the channel conductance, and computation distribution with large scale array integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

SERGHEI (SERGHEI-SWE) v1.0: a performance-portable high-performance parallel-computing shallow-water solver for hydrology and environmental hydraulics

The Simulation EnviRonment for Geomorphology, Hydrodynamics, and Ecohydrology in Integrated form (SERGHEI) is a multi-dimensional, multi-domain, and multi-physics model framework for environmental and landscape simulation, designed with an outlook towards Earth system modelling. At the core of SERGHEI's innovation is its performance-portable high-performance parallel-computing (HPC) implementation, built from scratch on the Kokkos portability layer, allowing SERGHEI to be deployed, in a performance-portable fashion, in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based heterogeneous systems. In this work, we explore combinations of MPI and Kokkos using OpenMP and CUDA backends. In this contribution, we introduce the SERGHEI model framework and present with detail its first operational module for solving shallow-water equations (SERGHEI-SWE) and its HPC implementation. This module is designed to be applicable to hydrological and environmental problems including flooding and runoff generation, with an outlook towards Earth system modelling. Its applicability is demonstrated by testing several well-known benchmarks and large-scale problems, for which SERGHEI-SWE achieves excellent results for the different types of shallow-water problems. Finally, SERGHEI-SWE scalability and performance portability is demonstrated and evaluated on several TOP500 HPC systems, with very good scaling in the range of over 20 000 CPUs and up to 256 state-of-the art GPUs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Stratiform clouds and their interaction with atmospheric motions

During the 1987 to 1988 academic year, three projects were finished and plans were made to redirect and focus work in a proposal now being reviewed. The completed work involves study of waves on an equatorial beta-plane in shear flow, investigation of the influence of orography on the index cycle, and analysis of a model of cloud street development in a thermally-forced, sheared environment. The proposed work involves study of boundary layer circulations supporting stratocumulus decks and investigation of how the radiative effects of these clouds modulate larger-scale flows such as those associated with the index oscillation.

Clark, John H. E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Latent Heating Retrievals Using the TRMM Precipitation Radar: A Multi-Seasonal Study

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle and is a primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of latent heat release, which is accompanied by rainfall, modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics and in turn can impact midlatitude weather. This latent heat release is a consequence of phase changes between vapor, liquid, and solid water. Present largescale weather and climate models can simulate latent heat release only crudely, thus reducing their confidence in predictions on both global and regional scales. This paper represents the first attempt to use NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall information to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to October 2000. The Goddard Convective-Stratiform. Heating (CSH) algorithm and TRMM precipitation radar data are used for this study. We will examine and compare the latent heating structures between 1997-1998 (winter) ENSO and 1998-2000 (non-ENSO). We will also examine over the tropics. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental; Indian oceans vs west Pacific; Africa vs S. America) will be also examined and compared. In addition, we will examine the relationship between latent heating (max heating level) and SST. The period of interest also coincides with several TRMM field campaigns that recently occurred over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and in the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed Q1 budgets from these experiments could provide a means of validating the retrieved profiles of latent heating from the CSH algorithm.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ship Radar Observations of a Developing Hurricane in the East Pacific

During the recently completed East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC) field program, the NOAA research vessel Ronald H. Brown (RHB) was deployed in the east Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) for approximately 3 weeks near 10 deg. N, 95 deg. W. One of the principal objectives of the EPIC-ITCZ program was to observe the modulation of convection by synoptic-scale easterly waves and the air-sea coupling process in this poorly sampled region of the east Pacific. Data from the experiment will be used as validation to improve forecast models. The RHB carried a variety of platforms during EPIC to sample atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, including a scanning C-band Doppler radar, radiation flux instrumentation, air-sea flux system, Doppler lidar, 35 GHz cloud radar, UHF wind profiler, sea surface temperature (SST) sensors, as well as standard surface meteorological instrumentation and a suite of rain gauges. This presentation will focus on the analysis of C-band radar data that was collected on 10 September, 2001 as the ship passed through an easterly wave which later developed into hurricane Ivo. The ship captured approximately 12 hours of convection associated with the tropical disturbance. During this period, the domain sampled by the radar (approximately 71,000 sq km) contained a significant number of echo features. Specifically, the fraction of the domain containing radar echo above 10 dBZ reached 80% for over 2 hours and remained near 60% for a continuous six hour period. Animation of radar images showed distinct rotation in echo features associated with the easterly wave passage. Despite an approximate 4 C drop in surface air temperature and sustained winds approaching 20 m/ s, the SST remained nearly constant throughout the observation period (approx. 29.5 C). Peak values of latent and sensible heat flux exceeded 400 and 100 W /sq m, respectively. The radar documented the change in precipitation vertical structure as the ship passed through regions of significant convection with echo tops approaching 14 km and 30 dBZ echo tops extending to near 9 km embedded in regions that were predominantly stratiform in nature. Single Doppler retrievals (Extended Velocity Azimuth Display) were conducted continuously at 10-minute resolution for approximately 4 hours in the latter part of the observation period, and documented the transition from convection (low-level convergence, upper level divergence) to stratiform (mid-level convergence sandwiched between upper and lower level divergence) kinematic structure.

Cifelli, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2018

Exploring Fundamentally Three-dimensional Phenomena in High-fidelity Simulations of Core-collapse Supernovae

The details of the physical mechanism that drives core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) remain uncertain. While there is an emerging consensus on the qualitative outcome of detailed CCSN mechanism simulations in 2D, only recently have high-fidelity 3D simulations become possible. In this work, we present the results of an extensive set of 3D CCSN simulations using high-fidelity multidimensional neutrino transport, high-resolution hydrodynamics, and approximate general relativistic gravity. We employ a state-of-the-art 20 M ⊙ progenitor generated using Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics, and the SFHo equation of state. While none of our 3D CCSN simulations explode within ~500 ms after core bounce, we find that the presence of large-scale aspherical motion in the Si and O shells aid shock expansion and bring the models closer to the threshold of explosion. We also find some dependence on resolution and geometry (octant versus full 4π). As has been noted in other recent works, we find that the post-shock turbulence plays an important role in determining the overall dynamical evolution of our simulations. We find a strong standing accretion shock instability (SASI) that develops at late times. The SASI produces transient shock expansions, but these do not result in any explosions. We also report that for a subset of our simulations, we find conclusive evidence for the lepton-number emission self-sustained asymmetry, which until now has not been confirmed by independent simulation codes. Finally, both the progenitor asphericities and the SASI-induced transient shock expansion phases generate transient gravitational waves and neutrino signal modulations via perturbations of the protoneutron star by turbulent motions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulated Impact of Shortened Strings in Commercial and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Arrays

The deliberate removal of photovoltaic modules from a string can occur for various reasons encompassing maintenance, measurements, theft, or failure, reducing that string length relative to others when replacement modules are not available and there are not any viable alternative makes and models that could be inserted. This phenomenon, delineated in our prior experimentally validated research, manifests two significant effects: (1) a shift in the ideal maximum power point and (2) the induction of potentially substantial reverse currents in the shortened strings at open-circuit voltage, VOC. However, the scalability and asymptotic limits of these observed behaviors concerning array size remained undetermined. In this study, we elucidate the operational dynamics of such arrays by manipulating two mismatch-contributing variables in simulated arrays of up to 900 strings: the number of removed modules per string (indicative of the level of mismatch, ranging up to 5) and the quantity of shortened strings (1 to 60). Simulation outcomes underscore that mismatch severity impacts array operation more than the proportion of shortened strings. This research delves into the practical ramifications of operating with shortened strings, including implications for low-irradiance operation and the manifestation of deleterious reverse currents (>35 A in specific cases), emphasizing the need for careful array configuration for optimal performance and safety in these implementations.

Energy & Fuels↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era

Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role in counterbalancing warming by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ocean-atmosphere ModelE version 2.1 (GISS-E2.1-G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based aerosol (OMA) module. Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period are analyzed as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) future scenarios for 2015–2100: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing in the GISS model has reached its turning point, switching from globally increasing to a decreasing trend in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust, independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non-linear aerosol-cloud interactions dominate as a forcing agent over aerosol-radiation interactions. Aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to that at the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, global warming of the last decades, which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases, has been augmented by the effect of decreasing aerosol cooling in our model. By the end of this century, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0%–20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario.

Aerosol forcing↗

DOE OSTI2021

`SkyPy`: A package for modelling the Universe

SkyPy is an open-source Python package for simulating the astrophysical sky. It comprises a library of physical and empirical models across a range of observables and a command-line script to run end-to-end simulations. The library provides functions that sample realisations of sources and their associated properties from probability distributions. Simulation pipelines are constructed from these models using a YAML-based configuration syntax, while task scheduling and data dependencies are handled internally and the modular design allows users to interface with external software. SkyPy is developed and maintained by a diverse community of domain experts with a focus on software sustainability and interoperability. By fostering development, it provides a framework for correlated simulations of a range of cosmological probes including galaxy populations, large scale structure, the cosmic microwave background, supernovae and gravitational waves. Version 0.4 implements functions that model various properties of galaxies including luminosity functions, redshift distributions and optical photometry from spectral energy distribution templates. Future releases will provide additional modules, for example, to simulate populations of dark matter halos and model the galaxy-halo connection, making use of existing software packages from the astrophysics community where appropriate.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Consequence Assessment

With consumers’ growing interest in electric vehicles, extreme fast charging stations are poised to provide high-power charging to rapidly recharge light-duty passenger vehicles. High-power charging requires high-level communication between vehicle and charger to govern the charging process. The coupling of power and communication increases the potential scale of cyberattacks. Using a full Western Electricity Coordinating Council planning model, load manipulation from high-power charging infrastructure is investigated. Two cases of load manipulation are studied: (i) a discrete, widespread system event and (ii) loads modulated near the Western Interconnect’s resonant frequency. In (i) some generation trips and in (ii) oscillations are observed on the California Oregon Intertie. Neither scenario results in significant adverse effects to the grid.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Airborne electronically steerable phased array

The results are presented of the second stage of a program for the design and development of a phased array capable of simultaneous and separate transmission and reception of radio frequency signals at S-band frequencies. The design goals of this stage were the development of three major areas of interest required for the final prototype model. These areas are the construction and testing of the low-weight, full-scale 128-element array of antenna elements, the development of the RF manifold feed system, and the construction and testing of a working module containing diplexer and transmit and receive circuits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computational methods and software systems for dynamics and control of large space structures

The deployment, assembly and mission-oriented maneuvering of space structures in orbit will trigger large motions of flexible, truss-type structures. In addition, the presence of on-board controls both for attitude stabilization and specified vibration tolerance requirements may further complicate the dynamic behavior of the orbiting structures. Because of safety and cost considerations, the dynamic response of the combined structural and control systems must be predicted reliably. This need can only be met through the development of reliable and efficient simulation capabilities, since there is general agreement that on-orbit experiments should be limited because of cost, time and facility constraints. The long-term objective of this research effort is to develop a next-generation computer simulator for the dynamics and control of large space structures. The simulator will be based on integrating four research thrusts: a new multibody dynamics formulation methodology, modeling capabilities in long/slender truss-beam components with realistic joints, efficient computational procedures that can be implemented either in sequential or concurrent computers, and prototype simulation modules that can be easily processed into a modern large-scale engineering software system such as the NASA/Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) testbed.

Park, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

SUSIM/UARS observations of the 120 to 300 nm flux variations during the maximum of the solar cycle - Inferences for the 11-year cycle

Since October 1991, the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite has been measuring the solar spectral irradiance from 120 to 400 nm with low (5 nm) and moderate (1.1 nm) resolution on a daily basis. By scaling the modulation measured over four solar rotations to proxy indicators of solar activity, we estimate the amplitude of the solar ultraviolet irradiance variation during the 11-year activity cycle, extending the wavelength coverage of existing empirical variability models to 120 nm and distinguishing the variability of the emission lines from that of the underlying solar continuum. These estimates are compared with results from another empirical variability model and from direct measurements.

Lean, Judith↗