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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

Madden-Julian Oscillatio↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗
DOE OSTI2022

ML-PSA

The computer code uses a parallel simulated annealing framework with embedded machine learning components to solve multi-constrained optimization problems. The software automatically balances the execution of low and high fidelity physics models within the optimization procedure. The low fidelity model is used to rapidly explore the design space while the high fidelity physics model is executed sparingly to account for complex design constraints that are not resolved by the quickly executing low fidelity model.

Gurecky, William↗
NASA NTRS1993

Aerothermodynamics of a MESUR Martian entry

Computational fluid dynamics models for the thermodynamics and transport properties used in an equilibrium version of the Langley Aerothermodynamics Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) for Martian Atmospheric entries are described. In addition, the physical models used in a nonequilibrium version of LAURA for Martian-entry flows are described. Uncertainties exist in defining constants used in the transport properties for the equilibrium model and in many of the physical models for the nonequilibrium version. Solutions from the two codes using the best available constants are examined at the Martian-entry conditions characteristic of the Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) mission. While the flowfields are near thermal equilibrium, chemical nonequilibrium effects are present in the entry cases examined. Convective heating at the stagnation point for these flows (assuming fully catalytic wall boundary conditions) is approximately 100 W/sq cm. Radiative heating is negligible.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing observables for measurements with deep learning

Many analyses in particle and nuclear physics use simulations to infer fundamental, effective, or phenomenological parameters of the underlying physics models. When the inference is performed with unfolded cross sections, the observables are designed using physics intuition and heuristics. We propose to design targeted observables with machine learning. Unfolded, differential cross sections in a neural network output contain the most information about parameters of interest and can be well-measured by construction. The networks are trained using a custom loss function that rewards outputs that are sensitive to the parameter(s) of interest while simultaneously penalizing outputs that are different between particle-level and detector-level (to minimize detector distortions). We demonstrate this idea in simulation using two physics models for inclusive measurements in deep inelastic scattering. We find that the new approach is more sensitive than classical observables at distinguishing the two models and also has a reduced unfolding uncertainty due to the reduced detector distortions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inverse design of equilibrium cluster fluids applied to a physically informed model

Inverse design strategies have proven highly useful for the discovery of interaction potentials that prompt self-assembly of a variety of interesting structures. However, often the optimized particle interactions do not have a direct relationship to experimental systems. In this work, we show that Relative Entropy minimization is able to discover physically meaningful parameter sets for a model interaction built from depletion attraction and electrostatic repulsion that yield self-assembly of size-specific clusters. Here, we then explore the sensitivity of the optimized interaction potentials with respect to deviations in the underlying physical quantities, showing that clustering behavior is largely preserved even as the optimized parameters are perturbed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) for System-Level Design Analysis

Cybersecurity is a persistent concern to the safety and security of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), but has lacked data-driven, evidence-based research. Rigorous cybersecurity analysis is critical for the licensing of advanced reactors using a performance-based approach. One tool that enables cybersecurity analysis is modeling and simulation. The nuclear industry makes extensive use of modeling and simulation throughout the decision process but lacks a method to incorporate cybersecurity analysis with existing models. To meet this need, the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) was developed. ARCADE is a suite of publicly available tools that can be used to develop emulations of industrial control system devices and networks and integrate those emulations with physics simulators. This integration of cyber emulations and physics models enables rigorous cyber-physical analysis of cyber-attacks on NPP systems. This report provides an overview of key considerations for using ARCADE with existing physics models and demonstrates ARCADE’s capabilities for cybersecurity analysis. Using a model of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR), ARCADE was able to determine the sensitivity of the primary heat exchangers (PHX) to coordinated cyber-attacks. The analysis determined that while the PHX’s failures cause disruption to the reactor, they did not cause any safety limits to be exceeded because of the plant design, including passive safety features. Further development of ARCADE will enable rigorous, repeatable, and automated cyber-physical analysis of advanced reactor control systems. These efforts will also help reduce regulatory uncertainty by presenting similar types of cybersecurity analyses in a common format, driving standard approaches and reporting.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical & Cyber Security Modeling Interfacing Through Dante and ARCADE

Physical security is increasingly facing new threats from cyber attackers, for which there is little research in the way of characterizing this threat. This report discusses the efforts to combine cyber and physical security modeling tools to investigate this novel combinatorial threat space. To accomplish this, the Dante force-on-force modeling and simulation software and the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) were integrated. Dante provides a 3D environment which models the physical world, while ARCADE provides the cyber and control systems world.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Correlating rainfall with remotely sensed microwave radiation using physically based models

This simulation study evaluates the response of a 21-cm radiometer, measuring the radiation emitted by a bare soil, to varying accumulations of rain. It is shown that correlations between the decrease in emissivity after a rain storm and the total accumulation depend strongly on the physical characteristics of the soil which affect its capacity to hold water. These are primarily soil texture and pre-rain soil moisture. A method is also discussed which would use the numerical models with remotely sensed microwave brightness and surface physical temperatures, along with conventional weather data, to estimate the total accumulation.

Camillo, P. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor

Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.

MOOSE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Numerical modeling tools for chemical vapor deposition

Development of general numerical simulation tools for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was the objective of this study. Physical models of important CVD phenomena were developed and implemented into the commercial computational fluid dynamics software FLUENT. The resulting software can address general geometries as well as the most important phenomena occurring with CVD reactors: fluid flow patterns, temperature and chemical species distribution, gas phase and surface deposition. The physical models are documented which are available and examples are provided of CVD simulation capabilities.

Jasinski, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Radiation physics and modelling for off-nadir satellite-sensing of non-Lambertian surfaces

The primary objective of this paper is to provide a deeper understanding of the physics of satellite remote-sensing when off-nadir observations are considered. Emphasis is placed on the analysis and modeling of atmospheric effects and the radiative transfer of non-Lambertian surface reflectance characteristics from ground-level to satellite locations. The relative importance of spectral, spatial, angular, and temporal reflectance characteristics for satellite-sensed identification of vegetation types in the visible and near-infrared wavelength regions is evaluated. The highest identification value is attributed to angular reflectance signatures. Using radiative transfer calculations to evaluate the atmospheric effects on angular reflectance distributions of vegetation surfaces, atmosphere-invariant angular reflectance features such as the 'hot spot' and the 'persistent valley' are identified. A new atmospheric correction formalism for complete angular reflectance distributions is described. A sample calculation demonstrates that a highly non-Lambertian measured surface reflectance distribution can be retrieved from simulated satellite data in the visible and near infrared to within about 20 percent accuracy for almost all view directions up to 60 deg off-nadir. Thus the high value of angular surface reflectance characteristics (the 'angular signature') for satellite-sensed feature identification is confirmed, which provides a scientific basis for future off-nadir satellite observations.

Gerstl, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast emulation of quantum three-body scattering

Here, we develop a class of emulators for solving quantum three-body scattering problems. They are based on combining the variational method for scattering observables and the recently proposed eigenvector continuation concept. The emulators are first trained by the exact scattering solutions of the governing Hamiltonian at a small number of points in its parameter space, and then employed to make interpolations and extrapolations in that space. Through a schematic nuclear-physics model with finite-range two and three-body interactions, we demonstrate the emulators to be extremely accurate and efficient. The computing time for emulation is on the scale of milliseconds (on a laptop), with relative errors ranging from 10 –13 to 10 –4 depending on the case. The emulators also require little memory. We argue that these emulators can be generalized to even more challenging scattering problems. Furthermore, this general strategy may be applicable for building the same type of emulators in other fields, wherever variational methods can be developed for evaluating physical models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗