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Results for “Resilience Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Distribution System Resilience Through the Application of Volt-Var Regulation Devices

This paper discusses a practical implementation of locating and sizing dynamic reactive compensation using an impedance matrix (Zbus) approach to improve distribution system resilience in scenarios with high penetration of distributed resources. The modeled system is a 14.2 kV radial residential system modified to be fed by a combination of traditional sources and solar resources. Time-varying loads and PV sources are connected along the feeder to simulate the challenging operational voltage regulation scenarios faced by Modern Distribution Systems. Additionally, enhancement of the resilience of the electrical system is demonstrated through analyzing the effect of a topology change to the system. This study uses the GridLAB-D software.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilient high-temperature reverse osmosis desalination membranes

Conventional thin-film composite (TFC) reverse osmosis (RO) membranes experience irreversible performance loss at high temperatures, restricting their use in industries with high-temperature streams, including oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, electronics, power generation, food production, and hybrid desalination plants. However, the mechanisms driving the performance decline of TFC membranes at high temperatures remain poorly understood. Herein, we combine controlled experiments, molecular dynamics simulations, and micromechanical modeling to elucidate TFC failure mechanisms and to evaluate thermally resilient thin-film cross-linked (TFX) composite membrane. Upon exposure to elevated temperatures (>60°C), salt rejection of TFC dropped from ~99 to <90%, with irreversible structural damage in the polysulfone layer, confirmed by scanning electron microscopy. In contrast, the TFX membrane maintained ~99% salt rejection and showed no signs of physical degradation up to 80°C. Our combined analyses revealed that TFC membrane failure arises from irreversible pore expansion in the thermoplastic polysulfone support, leading to polyamide film rupture and delamination. TFX membranes resist thermal deformation, enabling ultrahigh-temperature RO desalination and water reuse.

Wu, Jishan [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Physical System: Design for Sustainability and Resilience

When considering the design tools needed in the transition from numeric models to pilot plant, cyber-physical systems (CPS) come to the forefront as a method to model complex integrated energy systems. CPS approach has proven to be valuable to identify opportunities for economically viable early adoption of integrated energy technologies. This tutorial will introduce the concepts and the roles of CPS in co-design to minimize risks for pilot plant and technology deployment. This tutorial will also layout basic requirements for the CPS development, which requires a highly interdisciplinary effort with expertise in sensors, hardware testing, real-time modeling, controls, and system integration.

Harun, Nor Farida↗
DOE OSTI2022

DINGO: Digital assistant to grid operators for resilience management of power distribution system

With increasing adverse weather events and disasters, enabling resiliency of the power distribution system (PDS) is becoming increasingly important. Here in this work, resiliency is defined as the systems ability to keep supplying critical loads even with multiple contingencies. Resiliency may depend on: (a) advanced tools to assist operators in situational awareness and decision making with the increasing volume of data generated by the PDS, (b) visualization and ease of interaction with system resources and information, especially during extreme events and resulting human operator stress, and (c) flexible resources and autonomous control. Operators and support engineers need to interact with the system for key information and take action under stress, given the requirement for decisions in a short time. Integrated technological solutions are prevailing steps to support the most appropriate decision during critical times to serve essential loads. In order to meet the required goals, a Real-time Resiliency Monitoring and Operational Decision Support (RT-RMOD) tool have been developed. It supports various functionalities, including real-time monitoring, resilience assessment, and proactive decision support. However, this work makes advanced feature additions to the tool by developing data-enabled resilience management algorithms for (i) outage detection and localization, (ii) Resiliency-metric driven restoration and reconfiguration, and (iii) NLP based digital assistant for operators called DINGO (DIgital assistaNt to Grid Operators) to interact with Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) and RT-RMOD. The developed algorithm was validated for multiple cases of weather events using a real-world, off-grid microgrid system modeled in a real-time simulator, sensor data, and software tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data recovery via covert cognizance for unattended operational resilience

One of the important premises of unattended operation, a highly promoted characteristic of fission batteries and advanced microreactors, is the ability to automate the analysis of sensors data used in support of operational monitoring and control. Here, to meet this vision, this work proposes a new monitoring and data recovery paradigm to ensure resilience against data corruption which may be the result of malicious intrusion into the reactor operational network. This is paramount to ensure 100% availability under contingency scenarios such as cyberattacks. In support of this vision, earlier work has presented the concept of covert cognizance and demonstrated its mathematical ability to identify and embed cognizance parameters under the noise-dominated null space of the sensors data. This work extends this concept and applies it in real-time to demonstrate three key characteristics: zero-impact, zero-observability, and data recovery, where the first characteristic is to ensure no impact on operation, the second is immunity to discovery by pattern recognition techniques, and the third is to allow recovery of corrupt or falsified data. Recognizing that fission batteries are designed to operate under steady state most of the time, we elect to employ a small modular reactor model under transient operational conditions to demonstrate the operational resilience enabled by the covert cognizance paradigm. Specifically, the PI controller is augmented with the covert cognizance modules to develop self-awareness and enable automatic data recovery. The developed modules are expected to be equally applicable to a wide range of advanced reactor technologies relying on full or partial unattended control.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) (Six-Month Progress Update) [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation was delivered in a public webinar on July 21, 2022, providing a high level summary of the progress in the first six months of the study, including presentation of four initial scenario definitions based on extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures. Situational awareness in near real-time is essential to ensure community resilience and enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models - GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the first component of this project first focuses on integrating the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity and send alerts based on potential for impacts similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes). The second component of the project focuses on using flood outputs derived from earth observation data to validate, update and add additional exposure and impact products to flood alerts. The flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated as alerts and maps through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. In this presentation, the following objectives will be covered: (i) the effective integration of the flood models, (ii) accuracy of the flood model outputs (flood extent and depth) for specific flood events both in the United States and globally in comparison with each other and earth observation data.

Glasscoe, Margaret↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilient, Rural, and Revolutionary: Salisbury Square's Direct-Current Affordable Microgrid Community: Preprint

The technology to interconnect buildings with a dedicated direct-current (DC) power distribution network is in place today; what is missing is a turnkey approach to designing a DC microgrid - and the business models allowing such systems to be deployed, owned, and operated at scale. To close this gap, the Salisbury Square Development Team, comprising clean-energy experts, has engineered a resilient community DC microgrid for an affordable housing community in Randolph, Vermont. Ten single-family, occupant-owned residences and 12 multifamily rental units will share locally generated and stored solar energy via a DC power distribution bus capable of operating during extended grid outages. With a DC power distribution network in place, each home will be equipped with high-efficiency DC lighting and appliances, operating alongside alternating current (AC) appliances, even during an islanded mode of operation. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of what is possible and achievable, the Team collaborated with the local utility, regulatory agencies, a national laboratory, energy-as-service providers, and vendors. The collaborators evaluated microgrid typologies, business models, and energy modeling, and analyzed electrification and resilience. Further, the Team applied the URBANoptTM (Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood optimization, NREL 2022) software development kit (SDK) to Salisbury Square's single-family and multifamily buildings to validate workflows and identify needs for advanced capability. This paper addresses the barriers to entry, scalability, and impact on residents and system ownership. It also examines the analysis that informed the design and engineering of the DC microgrid and the opportunities to streamline the process.

DER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Distributed Energy Storage as a Core Grid Infrastructure via Production Cost Modeling

Energy storage plays a pivotal role in enabling power system operation with more flexibility and resilience. Unlike current practice that considers energy storages as attached ancillary devices, this paper focuses on storages as a core infrastructure by looking at their spatial distribution in the system. A sensitivity analysis based on production cost modeling is conducted to demonstrate the benefits of distributed energy storages. First, the modeling of energy storages in production cost modeling is presented. Second, potential optimal locations of distributed energy storages in a power system are discussed. Finally, multiple scenarios with various numbers and locations of additional distributed energy storages in the WECC 2030 model are created. The production cost modeling results of these scenarios show that distributed energy storages have higher utilization compared to the centralized ES units and therefore provide significantly more benefits in terms of reduction in generation cost, emission cost, and volatility of location marginal prices. A saturation effect is observed suggesting the selection of optimal locations will further improve the benefits.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drought legacies mediated by trait trade‐offs in soil microbiomes

Abstract Soil microbiomes play a key role in driving biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. As drought frequency and intensity increase due to climate change, soil microbes and the processes they control will be impacted. Even after a drought ends, microbiomes and other systems take time to recover and may display a memory of previous climate conditions. Still, the mechanisms involved in these legacy effects remain unclear, making it difficult to predict climate and biogeochemical rates in the future. Here, we used a trait‐based microbiome model (DEMENTpy) to implement trade‐off‐mediated mechanisms that may lead to drought legacy effects on litter decomposition. Trade‐offs were assumed to follow the Y‐A‐S framework that defines three primary life‐history strategies of microorganisms: high growth Yield, resource Acquisition, and Stress tolerance. We represented cellular trade‐offs between osmolytes required for drought tolerance and investment in enzymes involved in litter decomposition. Simulations were run under varying levels of drought severity and dispersal. With high levels of dispersal, no legacy effects were predicted by DEMENTpy following drought. With limited dispersal, severe drought resulted in a persistent legacy of altered community‐level traits and reduced litter decomposition. Moderate drought resulted in a transient legacy that disappeared after two years, consistent with recent empirical observations in Southern California ecosystems. These results imply that greater movement along the trade‐off between enzyme investment and osmolyte production resulted in stronger legacy effects. More generally, factors that shift the position of a microbiome in YAS space may alter the legacy outcome following drought. Our trait‐based modeling study motivates additional empirical measurements to quantify YAS traits and trade‐offs that are needed to make accurate predictions of soil microbiome resilience and functioning. Also, our study illustrates an emerging approach for representing trait trade‐offs in microbiomes and vegetation that dictate ecosystem responses to drought and other environmental perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Energy Modeling Enhancements to Identify Least-Cost Pathways to Net-Zero Carbon Homes: Preprint

Residential grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) can utilize high levels of energy efficiency and demand flexibility to deliver value to occupants, the grid, and society. However, without the ability to analyze, design, and optimize residential GEBs there is a risk that homes will not realize their full potential value as efficient and dynamic resources, which could ultimately lead to higher than necessary energy costs for U.S. households and lower realization of potential energy efficiency and demand flexibility benefits such as increased convenience/automation, thermal comfort, durability, indoor air quality, and resilience. In 2018, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Residential Modeling Team developed a vision for an open source Residential GEB Analytics Platform built within DOE's EnergyPlus and OpenStudio modeling environment that would enable the design and optimization of residential GEBs, including the identification of least-cost pathways to highly energy-efficient and energy-flexible homes (e.g., net zero carbon homes). We created a detailed workplan for the development of new and enhanced residential GEB component-level models for EnergyPlus and OpenStudio needed to progress toward the vision for the analytics platform while delivering near-term benefits to industry. This paper 1) presents the vision for the platform, summarizing the workplan for residential GEB modeling enhancements; 2) highlights significant advancements that have been achieved between 2018 and 2022, including stochastic residential occupancy modeling, flexible water heater modeling, detailed lithium-ion stationary battery modeling, and realistic residential HVAC modeling; and 3) outlines ongoing efforts and next steps toward the full vision for the platform.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solar+ Optimizer: A Model Predictive Control Optimization Platform for Grid Responsive Building Microgrids

With the falling costs of solar arrays and battery storage and reduced reliability of the grid due to natural disasters, small-scale local generation and storage resources are beginning to proliferate. However, very few software options exist for integrated control of building loads, batteries and other distributed energy resources. The available software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice, and are often incapable of operating independently of the grid during blackouts. In this paper, we present the “Solar+ Optimizer” (SPO), a control platform that provides demand flexibility, resiliency and reduced utility bills, built using open-source software. SPO employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) to produce real time optimal control strategies for the building loads and the distributed energy resources on site. SPO is designed to be vendor-agnostic, protocol-independent and resilient to loss of wide-area network connectivity. The software was evaluated in a real convenience store in northern California with on-site solar generation, battery storage and control of HVAC and commercial refrigeration loads. Preliminary tests showed price responsiveness of the building and cost savings of more than 10% in energy costs alone.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Prize Mechanism to Address Data Utilization Challenges at Utilities

The electric industry sector is facing an “explosion” of data from a variety of sources. Electric sector stakeholders need to define how to capitalize on large datasets, both those they create and those from other sources (like data on weather, buildings, electric vehicles, etc.), to improve reliability and resilience and meet the changing system dynamics from renewable integration. For the electricity sector to fully utilize these vast new datasets, it must undergo a transformation in how it manages data quality, storage, and processing. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) is committed to accelerating research, development, and demonstration of new technologies and tools within the electricity sector to advance reliability, resilience, and affordable operation of the power system. Through the prize mechanism, OE identified two widespread data-related challenges for utilities—load modeling and data analysis automation—and offered an opportunity for utilities and teams of software engineers to identify additional challenges faced by utilities. After completing one round of the American-Made Digitizing Utilities Prize, OE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as the prize administrator, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as the domain experts have compiled the results and lessons learned to feed into the second round of the prize.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operational data and uncertainty in evaluation model for abnormal and accident scenarios, the established operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To reduce uncertainty associated with actual plant conditions, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator’s decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. This study first builds a knowledge base based on the characterization of issue space and the simulation tool. Next, this study discusses diagnosis and prognosis DTs for enhancing operational resilience by recovering the complete states of reactors and by predicting the future reactor behaviors. Finally, the decision-making module of the control system can determine the optimal control strategy that meets operational goals during loss-of-flow scenarios. To demonstrate and evaluate the DTs capability for supporting the operations of nuclear reactors, this study develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Avista’s Shared Energy Economy Model Pilot: A Techno-economic Assessment

As part of the second round of the Washington Clean Energy Fund, Avista Corp received a $3.5 million matching grant in support of a shared energy economy project to test the integration of energy assets–from rooftop solar and battery storage to building energy management systems–that can be shared and used for multiple purposes. The goal of this project is to demonstrate how both the customer and the utility can benefit from this shared energy economy model and demonstrate that the electric grid can become more reliable, efficient, resilient, and flexible. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was engaged by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Washington State Department of Commerce to work with Avista in assessing the benefits of the shared energy economy model. This report documents the techno-economic assessment of the shared energy economy model, including the definition of use cases and applications, collection and preparation of data and input parameters, development of modeling and optimization methods, and case studies and analysis results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗