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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

First Principles Study of Aluminum Doped Polycrystalline Silicon as a Potential Anode Candidate in Li‐ion Batteries

Addressing sustainable energy storage remains crucial for transitioning to renewable sources. While Li‐ion batteries have made significant contributions, enhancing their capacity through alternative materials remains a key challenge. Micro‐sized silicon is a promising anode material due to its tenfold higher theoretical capacity compared to conventional graphite. However, its substantial volumetric expansion during cycling impedes practical application due to mechanical failure and rapid capacity fading. A novel approach is proposed to mitigate this issue by incorporating trace amounts of aluminum into the micro‐sized silicon electrode using ball milling. Density functional theory (DFT) is employed to establish a theoretical framework elucidating how grain boundary sliding, a key mechanism involved in preventing mechanical failure is facilitated by the presence of trace aluminum at grain boundaries. This, in turn, reduces stress accumulation within the material, reducing the likelihood of failure. To validate the theoretical predictions, capacity retention experiments are conducted on undoped and Al‐doped micro‐sized silicon samples. In conclusion, the results demonstrate significantly reduced capacity fading in the doped sample, corroborating the theoretical framework and showcasing the potential of aluminum doping for improved Li‐ion battery performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of Nanocarbon-Based Anode Materials for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Renewable and non-renewable energy harvesting and its storage are important components of our everyday economic processes. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), with their rechargeable features, high open-circuit voltage, and potential large energy capacities, are one of the ideal alternatives for addressing that endeavor. Despite their widespread use, improving LIBs’ performance, such as increasing energy density demand, stability, and safety, remains a significant problem. The anode is an important component in LIBs and determines battery performance. To achieve high-performance batteries, anode subsystems must have a high capacity for ion intercalation/adsorption, high efficiency during charging and discharging operations, minimal reactivity to the electrolyte, excellent cyclability, and non-toxic operation. Group IV elements (Si, Ge, and Sn), transition-metal oxides, nitrides, sulfides, and transition-metal carbonates have all been tested as LIB anode materials. However, these materials have low rate capability due to weak conductivity, dismal cyclability, and fast capacity fading owing to large volume expansion and severe electrode collapse during the cycle operations. Contrarily, carbon nanostructures (1D, 2D, and 3D) have the potential to be employed as anode materials for LIBs due to their large buffer space and Li-ion conductivity. However, their capacity is limited. Blending these two material types to create a conductive and flexible carbon supporting nanocomposite framework as an anode material for LIBs is regarded as one of the most beneficial techniques for improving stability, conductivity, and capacity. This review begins with a quick overview of LIB operations and performance measurement indexes. It then examines the recently reported synthesis methods of carbon-based nanostructured materials and the effects of their properties on high-performance anode materials for LIBs. These include composites made of 1D, 2D, and 3D nanocarbon structures and much higher Li storage-capacity nanostructured compounds (metals, transitional metal oxides, transition-metal sulfides, and other inorganic materials). The strategies employed to improve anode performance by leveraging the intrinsic features of individual constituents and their structural designs are examined. The review concludes with a summary and an outlook for future advancements in this research field.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heat capacity and thermodynamic functions of partially dehydrated cation-exchanged (Na + , Cs + , Cd 2+ , Li + , and NH 4 + ) $\mathrm{RHO}$ zeolites

Synthetic zeolites have a myriad of applications in industry due to their porous frameworks, potential to exhibit flexibility, and specific interactions with guest molecules. One topology of zeolites, RHO, is known to be flexible and have strong interactions with both H 2 O and CO 2 . Here we have performed heat capacity measurements on three partially dehydrated zeolite RHO samples containing extra-framework cations Na + and Cs + , Cd 2+ and Cs + , and Li + and NH 4 + to understand the energetics of these materials. Based on fits of the heat capacity data, we report smooth thermodynamic functions of C p,m , Δ T 0 S m °, Δ T 0 H m °, and Φ m ° for these samples. The standard S m ° at 298.15 K are 76.3 ± 0.8, 72.1 ± 0.8, and 68.8 ± 0.7 J∙K -1 ∙mol -1 for the Na,Cs RHO, Cd,Cs RHO, and Li,NH 4 RHO samples, respectively, and the standard H m ° at 298.15 K are 12.1 ± 0.1, 11.4 ± 0.1, and 11.4 ± 0.1 kJ∙mol -1 . Our measurements also show a transition in the heat capacity of Na,Cs RHO, the sample with the highest water content, between 180 and 300 K that is not clearly observed in the other two samples. We attribute this transition to labile water and cations in the framework. This movement could also be coupled with a temperature-induced lattice expansion. Future work will include heat capacity measurements on fully dehydrated and fully hydrated zeolite RHO in order to separate these two possible phenomena.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling of magnetism, crystal lattice, and transport in EuCuP and EuCuAs

EuCuP and EuCuAs are members of a family of materials with candidates for realizing magnetically tuned electronic topology. Here, in this work, the magnetic phase transitions and magnetoelastic coupling of EuCuP and EuCuAs have been investigated. Around the Curie temperature, the thermal expansion coefficient and specific-heat capacity of EuCuP are found to have two closely spaced features, at approximately 30 and 31.3 K, which may indicate a cascading magnetic transition or perhaps an electronic transition closely coupled to the magnetic ordering. The zero-field magnetoelastic coupling appears to be stronger in EuCuP than in EuCuAs, and field-dependent measurements suggest this is due to the dominant ferromagnetic interaction in EuCuP as opposed to antiferromagnetic order in EuCuAs below T N =13.5 K. Thermal expansion is anisotropic around T N in EuCuAs, with a maximum expansion along [001] occurring above T N prior to a stiffening of this c -axis component on cooling through T N ; the expansion of the basal plane has a lambda-like peak centered slightly above T N . Matching these behaviors, the ac susceptibility data for EuCuAs suggest the presence of strong ferromagnetic correlations above T N in the vicinity where the c-axis expansion peaks. Both compounds possess similar electrical and thermoelectric transport behaviors, with short-range magnetic order likely playing an important role above T C or T N . Transport properties suggest these are predominantly hole doped due to intrinsic defects, and narrow-gap semiconducting or semimetallic behavior may be achievable if the underlying defects can be tuned.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Property Measurements of NaCl-UCl 3 and LiF-NaF-KF Molten Salts Doped with Surrogate Fission Products

Knowing thermophysical and thermochemical property values of salts over the expected range of operating temperatures is essential to modeling and simulation efforts that support the commercialization of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies. Salt properties being measured at Argonne include thermal transitions, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, surface tension, volumetric thermal expansion, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and viscosity. The properties of several salts of interest including NaCl-UCl 3 and LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) have been measured at Argonne and reported previously. These property measurements are suitable for use in evaluating reactor performance during startup and the early operating life of the reactor. The physical and chemical behavior of the fuel salt is altered by the buildup of fission products and the resulting changes in heat transfer and other properties must be understood by reactor developers. This report summarizes melting behavior, heat capacity, and thermal diffusivity values that were measured for mixtures of FLiNaK and NaCl-UCl 3 salts that have been doped with surrogate fission products. Additional heat capacity measurements were also performed on a separate mixture of FLiNaK without dopants. Measured properties are suitable for incorporation into the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermochemical (MSTDB–TC) and the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical (MSTDB–TP) to support the development of MSRs. Salts were prepared by doping eutectic mixtures of NaCl-UCl 3 and FLiNaK with surrogate fission products. These salts were prepared for use in salt spill experiments being performed at Argonne and were subsequently used for thermal property measurements. Thermal transitions and heat capacities were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermal diffusivity was measured by using laser flash analysis (LFA) at temperatures spanning the typical MSR operating range. The measured property values of the doped salts were compared to measured property values of salts without fission products to quantify the effects of the doped fission products.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Computational Study of the Shear Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Beams Affected from Alkali–Silica Reactivity Damage

In this study, an investigation of the shear behavior of full-scale reinforced concrete (RC) beams affected from alkali–silica reactivity damage is presented. A detailed finite element model (FEM) was developed and validated with data obtained from the experiments using several metrics, including a force–deformation curve, rebar strains, and crack maps and width. The validated FEM was used in a parametric study to investigate the potential impact of alkali–silica reactivity (ASR) degradation on the shear capacity of the beam. Degradations of concrete mechanical properties were correlated with ASR expansion using material test data and implemented in the FEM for different expansions. The finite element (FE) analysis provided a better understanding of the failure mechanism of ASR-affected RC beam and degradation in the capacity as a function of the ASR expansion. The parametric study using the FEM showed 6%, 19%, and 25% reduction in the shear capacity of the beam, respectively, affected from 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% of ASR-induced expansion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tailored Additive Design of Scaffold‐Free Porous Mg for Ultimate Hydrogen Storage

For hydrogen storage materials to become practically viable, comprehensive improvements in key properties—kinetics, thermodynamics, thermal transport, and durability—are crucial. Porous Mg structure has been proposed as a promising strategy due to its high storage capacity and ability to accommodate volume expansion. However, challenges such as sluggish kinetics and structural degradation resulting from instability due to vacant sites still remain. In this study, a tailored design of porous Mg structure with site-specific transition metal dual-doping and structure-reinforced carbon nanotube (CNT)-framework is presented for optimal hydrogen storage. Ti and Ni are strategically deposited on the surface to synergistically enhance hydrogen sorption kinetics by facilitating hydrogen dissociation and diffusion, while CNTs are interpenetrated into 3D Mg structure for improving thermal conductivity and maintaining the porous structure. The resulting composite demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving hydrogen absorption and desorption of 4.8 and 5.8 wt%, respectively, within 10 min with an impressively low activation energy for absorption of 46 kJ mol −1 H 2 . Even after 50 cycles, its capacity and porous structure are well preserved, showing excellent cyclability in comparison with previously reported materials. In conclusion, this delicate design strategy based on a comprehensive understanding of structural and chemical characteristics is key to maximizing the targeted performance.

CNT embedding↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio anharmonic thermodynamic properties of cubic Ca Si O 3 perovskite

We present an ab initio study of the thermodynamic properties of cubic CaSiO 3 perovskite (CaPv) over the pressure and temperature range of the Earth's lower mantle. We compute the anharmonic phonon dispersions throughout the Brillouin zone by utilizing the phonon quasiparticle approach, which characterizes the intrinsic temperature dependence of phonon frequencies and, in principle, captures full anharmonicity. Such temperature-dependent phonon dispersions are used to calculate ab initio free energy in the thermodynamic limit (N → ∞) within the framework of the phonon gas model. Accurate free energy calculations enable us to investigate cubic CaPv's thermodynamic properties, e.g., thermal expansivity, Grüneisen parameter, bulk modulus, heat capacity and thermal equation of state, where anharmonic effects are demonstrated. Furthermore, the present methodology provides an important theoretical approach for exploring phase boundaries, thermodynamic, and thermoelastic properties of strongly anharmonic materials at high pressures and temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear magnons and exchange Hamiltonians of the delafossite proximate quantum spin liquid candidates KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2

Quantum spin liquids (QSLs) are theoretical states of matter with long-range entanglement and exotic quasiparticles. However, they generally elude quantitative theory, rendering their underlying phases mysterious and hampering efforts to identify experimental QSL states. Here we study triangular-lattice resonating-valence-bond QSL candidate materials KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2 . We measure the magnon modes in their 1/3 plateau phase, where quantitative theory is tractable, using inelastic neutron scattering and fit them using nonlinear spin wave theory. We also fit the KYbSe 2 heat capacity using high-temperature series expansion. Both KYbSe 2 fits yield the same magnetic Hamiltonian to within uncertainty, confirming previous estimates and showing the Heisenberg ratio J 2 / J 1 to be an accurate model for these materials. Most importantly, comparing KYbSe 2 and NaYbSe 2 shows that the smaller A -site Na + ion has a larger J 2 / J 1 ratio. However, hydrostatic pressure applied to KYbSe 2 increases the ordering temperature (a result consistent with density functional theory calculations), indicating that pressure decreases J 2 / J 1 . In conclusion, these results show how the periodic table and hydrostatic pressure can tune the A YbSe 2 materials in a controlled way.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Thermophysical Properties of TcO2

Technetium-99 is a highly radioactive isotope with a long half-life that is common in nuclear waste. It volatizes at a low temperature, which poses a significant challenge to the clean-up and containment processes. Due to difficulties in purifying technetium compounds, their thermophysical properties have not been measured or calculated. Here, first principle methods are used along with the quasi quasi-harmonic harmonic approximation to compute the Debye temperature, volumetric thermal expansion coefficient, bulk modulus, and heat capacity of rutile TcO2 for temperatures ranging from 0 to 1500 K and applied pressures ranging from 0 to 255 GPa. The computed atomic structures agree well with the results from diffraction measurements. The computed thermophysical properties are in the neighborhood of other rutile metal oxides and, in particular, are within approximately 10–13% of rutile ReO2, which is frequently used as a substitute for TcO2 in experimental studies.

Zhong, Hong↗
NASA NTRS1977

Recent developments in photovoltaic energy by ERDA/NASA-LeRC

Application development activities were designed to stimulate the market for photovoltaics so that as costs are reduced there will be an increasing market demand to encourage the expansion of industrial solar array production capacity. Supporting these application development activities are tasks concerned with: (1) establishing standards and methodology for terrestrial solar cell calibration; (2) conducting standard and diagnostic measurements on solar cells and modules; and (3) conducting real time and accelerated testing of solar cell modules and materials of construction under outdoor sunlight conditions.

Deyo, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Indigenous lunar construction materials

The utilization of local resources for the construction and operation of a lunar base can significantly reduce the cost of transporting materials and supplies from Earth. The feasibility of processing lunar regolith to form construction materials and structural components is investigated. A preliminary review of potential processing methods such as sintering, hot-pressing, liquification, and cast basalt techniques, was completed. The processing method proposed is a variation on the cast basalt technique. It involves liquification of the regolith at 1200-1300 C, casting the liquid into a form, and controlled cooling. While the process temperature is higher than that for sintering or hot-pressing (1000-1100 C), this method is expected to yield a true engineering material with low variability in properties, high strength, and the potential to form large structural components. A scenario for this processing method was integrated with a design for a representative lunar base structure and potential construction techniques. The lunar shelter design is for a modular, segmented, pressurized, hemispherical dome which could serve as habitation and laboratory space. Based on this design, estimates of requirements for power, processing equipment, and construction equipment were made. This proposed combination of material processing method, structural design, and support requirements will help to establish the feasibility of lunar base construction using indigenous materials. Future work will refine the steps of the processing method. Specific areas where more information is needed are: furnace characteristics in vacuum; heat transfer during liquification; viscosity, pouring and forming behavior of molten regolith; design of high temperature forms; heat transfer during cooling; recrystallization of basalt; and refinement of estimates of elastic moduli, compressive and tensile strength, thermal expansion coefficient, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity. The preliminary design of the lunar shelter showed us that joining is a critical technology needed for building a structure from large segments. The problem of joining is important to the design of any structure that is not completely prefabricated. It is especially important when the structure is subjected to tensile loading by an internal pressure. For a lunar shelter constructed from large segments the joints between these large segments must be strong, and they must permit automated construction. With a cast basalt building material which is brittle, there is the additional problem of connecting the joint with the material and avoiding stress concentration that would cause failure. Thus, a well-defined project which we intend to pursue during this coming year is the design of joints for cast basalt structural elements.

Rogers, Wayne P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A versatile nondestructive evaluation imaging workstation

Ultrasonic C-scan and eddy current imaging systems are of the pointwise type evaluation systems that rely on a mechanical scanner to physically maneuver a probe relative to the specimen point by point in order to acquire data and generate images. Since the ultrasonic C-scan and eddy current imaging systems are based on the same mechanical scanning mechanisms, the two systems can be combined using the same PC platform with a common mechanical manipulation subsystem and integrated data acquisition software. Based on this concept, we have developed an IBM PC-based combined ultrasonic C-scan and eddy current imaging system. The system is modularized and provides capacity for future hardware and software expansions. Advantages associated with the combined system are: (1) eliminated duplication of the computer and mechanical hardware, (2) unified data acquisition, processing and storage software, (3) reduced setup time for repetitious ultrasonic and eddy current scans, and (4) improved system efficiency. The concept can be adapted to many engineering systems by integrating related PC-based instruments into one multipurpose workstation such as dispensing, machining, packaging, sorting, and other industrial applications.

Chern, E. James↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗