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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying pH buffering capacity in acidic, organic-rich Arctic soils: Measurable proxies and implications for soil carbon degradation

Dynamic pH change promoted by biogeochemical reactions in Arctic tundra soils can be a major control on the production and release of CO 2 and CH 4 , which contribute to rising global temperatures. Large quantities of soil organic matter (SOM) in these soils are susceptible to microbial decomposition, leading to pH changes during permafrost thaw. Soil pH buffering capacity (β) modulates the extent of pH change but has not been thoroughly studied and represented in predictive ecosystem scale biogeochemical models in Arctic tundra soils. In this study, we generated titration curves for 21 acidic tundra soils from three Arctic sites across northern Alaska, United States of America. Geochemical and hydrological soil properties were evaluated, and correlations with β were developed. Strong correlations between β and both gravimetric water content (Θ g ) (R 2 = 0.847, p < 0.001) and soil water retention (SWR) (R 2 = 0.849, p = 0.001) indicate that the ability of soil to retain water could be associated with its buffering properties. Correlations between β and soil organic carbon (SOC) and cation exchange capacity (CEC) were also explored, and relationships to SWR are discussed. These correlations were then used with existing soil databases reporting SOC, CEC, and SWR to estimate β across Alaska soils. We further demonstrated the quantitative relationships between β and the simulated rates of biogeochemical reactions and show that lower β leads to higher soil pH and more CH 4 production. Overall, our study provides simple proxies for β in Arctic soils and highlights the importance and implications of representing soil buffering in predictive models, thereby enabling quantitative coupling between pH dynamics associated with biogeochemical reactions. Integrating β into predictive models of Arctic biogeochemical cycling may reduce model uncertainty and further our understanding of permafrost SOM degradation accelerated by warming.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bottomonium suppression and elliptic flow using Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics

We introduce a framework called Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics (HQQD) which can be used to compute the dynamical suppression of heavy quarkonia propagating in the quark-gluon plasma using real-time in-medium quantum evolution. Using HQQD we compute large sets of real-time solutions to the Schrödinger equation using a realistic in-medium complex-valued potential. We sample 2 million quarkonia wave packet trajectories and evolve them through the QGP using HQQD to obtain their survival probabilities. The computation is performed using three different HQQD model parameter sets in order to estimate our systematic uncertainty. After taking into account final state feed down we compare our results to existing experimental data for the suppression and elliptic flow of bottomonium states and find that HQQD predictions are good agreement with available data for R AA as a function of N part and p T collected at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5 . 02 TeV. In the case of v 2 for the various states, we find that the path-length dependence of ϒ(1 s ) suppression results in quite small v 2 for ϒ(1 s ). Our prediction for the integrated elliptic flow for ϒ(1 s ) in the 10 – 90% centrality class, which now includes an estimate of the systematic error, is v 2 [ϒ(1 s )] = 0 . 003 ± 0 . 0007 ± \( {}_{0.0013}^{0.0006} \) . We also find that, due to their increased suppression, excited bottomonium states have a larger elliptic flow. Based on this observation we make predictions for v 2 [ϒ(2 s )] and v 2 [ϒ(3 s )] as a function of centrality and transverse momentum.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD modeling of natural circulation in LiCl-KCl molten salt closed loop

Characterizing flow within a molten salt closed-loop system is crucial for assessing system requirements, evaluating performance, and identifying potential flaws. Direct flow measurement using instrumentation is challenging due to extreme environmental conditions and the limitations associated with measuring molten salt flow under natural convection. Here, this study aims to provide comprehensive insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a closed loop, with a particular focus on temperature distribution and velocity prediction. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model demonstrated the capability to effectively simulate and predict both temperature distributions and flow velocities within the molten salt loop. The CFD model's predictive capability was validated by its ability to replicate temperature measurements under varying boundary conditions. The analysis revealed that the CFD model tends to underpredict temperatures in the cold leg and overpredict them in the hot leg, highlighting the need for continuous model refinement and acknowledging the limitations of using a steady-state approach. Furthermore, the potential of using external temperature measurements to estimate internal molten salt temperatures and predict flow velocity was explored, revealing that this approach could introduce up to a 5.5% error in flow velocity calculations. Line probes mapping temperature distributions across the tube's cross-section and molten salt provided valuable insights into temperature gradients, emphasizing the need for a thermal conductivity equation for molten salt with lower uncertainty to achieve more accurate temperature predictions of the system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cleavage at the nsp5–nsp6 site of SARS-CoV-2 main protease intermediate precursor is faster from a monomer than a dimer form

Our previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 main protease (MPro) precursor monomer indicate that the initial N-terminal nonstructural protein (nsp)4/nsp5 cleavage occurs intramolecularly, with a small fraction of the active site loop equilibrium being in the active state. To understand the influence of dimer formation of MPro upon N-terminal cleavage on the subsequent C-terminal nsp5/nsp6 intermolecular cleavage kinetics, the stepwise processing of a monomeric, inactive precursor containing the native terminal cleavage sites of MPro (MBP- (−6) MPro C145A(+3) -GB1-6H, 86.2 kDa) by mature WT MPro (MPro WT ) was investigated. Differential scanning fluorimetry and analytical ultracentrifugation measurements of various MPro constructs suggest that the C145A mutation decreases the dimer dissociation constant (K dimer ) by ∼26-fold, relative to WT C145 and H41A. The monomeric precursor’s nsp4–nsp5 site appears to saturate MProWT’s active sites and cleave faster, followed by a slower first-order cleavage at the C-terminal site. No detectable product resulting from the C-terminal cleavage is observed until most of the N-terminal cleavage is complete. The initial intermediate product (termed MPro C145A-IP ) is a homodimer with an estimated K dimer of <0.05 μM. In contrast, the first-order kinetics observed for the cleavage of the monomeric form of the intermediate product is at least 300 times faster than that of the dimer form. Room-temperature X-ray structure of the MPro C145A-IP –ensitrelvir complex is like that of the MPro WT –ensitrelvir complex and reveals a dynamic C-terminal region including MPro residues 302 to 306. These results are interpreted from the point of view of a mechanism in which nsp5–nsp6 cleavage may occur from a monomeric intermediate, and dimer formation restricts this cleavage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Importance of Electron Correlation on the Geometry and Electronic Structure of [2Fe–2S] Systems: A Benchmark Study of the [Fe 2 S 2 (SCH 3 ) 4 ] 2–,3–,4– , [Fe 2 S 2 (SCys) 4 ] 2– , [Fe 2 S 2 (S- p -tol) 4 ] 2– , and [Fe 2 S 2 (S- o -xyl) 4 ] 2– Complexes

Iron–sulfur clusters are crucial for biological electron transport and catalysis. Obtaining accurate geometries, energetics, manifolds of their excited electronic states, and reduction energies is important to understand their role in these processes. Here, using a [2Fe–2S] model complex with Fe II and Fe III oxidation states, which leads to different charges, i.e., [Fe 2 S 2 (SMe) 4 ] 2–,3–,4– , we benchmarked a variety of computational methodologies ranging from density functional theory (DFT) to post-Hartree–Fock methods, including complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF), multireference configuration interaction, the second-order N-electron valence state perturbation theory (NEVPT2), and the linearized integrand approximation of adiabatic connection (AC0) approaches. Additionally, we studied three experimentally well-characterized complexes, [Fe 2 S 2 (SCys) 4 ] 2– , [Fe 2 S 2 (S-o-tol) 4 ] 2– , and [Fe 2 S 2 (S-o-xyl) 4 ] 2– , via DFT methods. We conclude that the dynamic electron correlation is important for accurately predicting the geometry of these complexes. Broken symmetry (BS) DFT correctly predicts experimental geometries of low-spin multiplicity, while CASSCF does not. However, BS-DFT significantly overestimates the difference between the low- and high-spin electronic states for a given oxidation state. At the same time, CASSCF underestimates it but provides relative energies closer to the reference NEVPT2 results. Finally, AC0 provides energetics of NEVPT2 quality with the additional advantage of being able to use large CASSCF sizes. NEVPT2 gives the best estimates of the Fe III /Fe III → Fe II /Fe III (4.27 eV) and Fe II /F III → Fe II /F II (7.72 eV) reduction energies. The results provide insight into the electronic structure of these complexes and assist in the understanding of their physical properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unveiling the internal structure of the Hercules supercluster

ABSTRACT We have investigated the structure of the Hercules supercluster (SCL160) based on data originally extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-DR7). We have traced the mass distribution in the field through the numerical density, weighted by the r′ luminosity of the galaxies, and classified objects based on their spatial position and redshift. This has allowed us to address not only the kinematics of the supercluster as a whole, but also the internal kinematics of each cluster, which had not been explored further before. We have confirmed that the Hercules supercluster is composed of the galaxy clusters A2147, A2151, and A2152. A2151 consists of five subclusters, A2147 two, and A2152 at least two. They form the heart of the Hercules supercluster. We also have found two other gravitationally bound clusters, therefore increasing the known members of the supercluster. We have estimated a total mass of 2.1 ± 0.2 × 1015 M⊙ for the Hercules supercluster. To determine the dynamical masses in this work, we have resorted to the M200−σ scaling relation and the caustic technique. Comparing both methods with simulated data of bimodal merging clusters, we found that the caustic, as well as the σ-based masses, is biased through the merger age, showing a boost just after pericentric passage. This is not in line with the principle of the caustic method, which affirms it does not depend on the cluster dynamical state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordinated Inverter Control to Increase Dynamic PV Hosting Capacity: A Real-Time Optimal Power Flow Approach

High penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) could cause adverse grid impacts, such as voltage violations. The recent development in inverter technologies provides the opportunity to develop control systems to realize effective PV governance and thus to improve dynamic PV hosting capacity for distribution grids. In this paper, a novel distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) solution is proposed by adopting the real-time optimal power flow (OPF) approach for coordinated control of the distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach eliminates the dependence on load knowledge via measurement feedback correction, and it can be implemented in real time. One challenge is that the technique is sensitive to the data availability and integrity of voltage measurements. Therefore, a decentralized DERMS approach is developed by leveraging the concepts of state estimation. The framework and the effectiveness of the solution approach are numerically demonstrated on a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Which Plant Traits Increase Soil Carbon Sequestration? Empirical Evidence From a Long‐Term Poplar Genetic Diversity Trial

Plants play a key role in mediating soil response to global change, and breeding or engineering crops to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a potential route to land-based carbon dioxide removal in agricultural systems. However, due to limited observational datasets plus shifting paradigms of SOC stabilization, it is unclear which plant traits are most important for enhancing different types of soil organic matter. Existing long-term common gardens of genetically diverse plant populations may provide an opportunity to evaluate biological controls on SOC, separate from environmental or management variability. Here we report on soil and root chemical data collected for 24 genotypes within a 13-year-old common garden in northwestern Oregon planted with a large natural variant population of Populus trichocarpa. Fractionating surface soil (0–15 cm) revealed substantial variation in stocks of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM; 18–67 t C/ha) and particulate organic matter (POM; 2–22 t C/ha). Tree genotype explained 24% and 26% of the MAOM and POM stock variability, respectively, after controlling for background variability. We found minimal association between SOC concentration and either aboveground tree productivity or root biomass recalcitrance (C/N ratios and lignin content). In contrast, root elemental content appeared influential for MAOM-C concentration, which showed a strong positive association with root aluminum (Al) and a strong negative association with root boron (B) and magnesium (Mg). Furthermore, root concentrations of these elements were highly heritable (57%–78%) and not simply a reflection of background variation in soil elemental concentrations. We estimate that surface SOC stocks under these 24 genotypes have diverged at rates of up to 1.2–4.3 t C/ha/year. These results suggest that long-term genetic diversity trials have value for elucidating biological controls on soil organic matter dynamics, and that traits associated with root elemental content may be a useful target for enhancing biosequestration.

biomass recalcitrance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics and Structure of Molten Neodymium Titanate

Binary rare earth titanates can be vitrified using levitation melt quenching, and their glasses are promising for optical applications. To better understand their thermophysical properties and dynamics, we have used molecular dynamics (MD) and empirical potential structure refinement (EPSR) to simulate molten neodymium titanate, 83TiO 2 –17Nd 2 O 3 . The models are compared with high-energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction of the melt structure over 1060–1960 K and thermophysical property measurements of electrostatically levitated droplets over 1500–2200 K. As temperature increases, the network periodicity increases and the correlation length decreases, both in monotonic trends that suggest continuous structural evolution through the melt and supercooled liquid regimes. At 1900 K, the mean Ti–O and Nd–O coordination numbers are 5.8(5) and 6.7(5), compared to the glass, 5.72(6) and 7.70(26). The equilibrium melting point is measured as 1860(20) K, over 100 K higher than previous estimates. Viscosity data from MD are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The dynamic propensity of Nd is similar to that of the network-forming Ti, suggesting that Nd does not participate as a conventional modifier. The viscosity of this fragile liquid is likely controlled by the breaking of cation–oxygen bonds and rearrangements of Ti–O polyhedra.

molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proton Diffusion in Liquid 1,2,3-Triazole Studied by Incoherent Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering

Improving the proton transport in polymer electrolytes impacts the performance of next-generation solid-state batteries. However, little is known about proton conductivity in nonaqueous systems due to the lack of an appropriate level of fundamental understanding. Here, we studied the proton transport in small molecules with dynamic hydrogen bonding, 1,2,3-triazole, as a model system of proton hopping in a nonaqueous environment using incoherent quasi-elastic neutron scattering. By using the jump-diffusion model, we identified the elementary jump-diffusion motion of protons at a much shorter length scale than those by nuclear magnetic resonance and impedance spectroscopy for the estimated long-range diffusion. In addition, a spatially restricted diffusive motion was observed, indicating that proton motion in 1,2,3-triazole is complex with various local correlated dynamics. In conclusion, these correlated dynamics will be important in elucidating the nature of the proton dynamics in nonaqueous systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration

In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of stability and unraveling the electronic and physical properties of bulk and (001)-surfaces of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) MAX phases

MAX phase family has been extended by the addition of late transition metals at the A-site with the expectation of diverse functional properties. Here, we present our systematic density functional investigation on the thermodynamic and phonon stabilities, elastic properties, including elastic constants, elastic moduli and elastic anisotropy of newly synthesized Ti 2 ZnX (X = C, N) phases in comparison with conventional Ti 2 AlX (X = C, N). Due to the smaller size of N as compared to C, the unit cell dimension is reduced when C atoms are replaced by N atoms at the X-site. Furthermore, the Ti 2 ZnC and Ti 2 ZnN are stable at the equilibrium volume of 110.84 Å 3 and 105.70 Å 3 . The thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamical stabilities are validated by estimating the formation energies, elastic constants and phonon dispersions, respectively. The elastic properties of Ti 2 ZnN are less anisotropic as compared to those of Ti 2 ZnC. To understand the thin-film characteristics in Ti 2 ZnX, the surface properties with (001)-terminated slabs are investigated. Both Ti 2 ZnX bulk and (001)-surfaces exhibit metal-like electronic structures. There is a strong covalent bonding between Ti-X and Ti-Zn atoms confirmed by the charge density map and Mulliken population analysis. Additional states are generated at the Fermi level (EF) due to the unusual d-p states hybridization between Ti and Zn atoms. The anisotropy in chemical bonding is confirmed by the cleavage energy difference between Ti-X and Ti-Zn. Here, Ti(X)-001 and Zn-001 terminations are stable surfaces; however, in terms of chemical potentials, Zn-001 termination is the most favourable in Ti 2 ZnX.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Different Thermal Gradients on the Dynamics of Cylindrical Lithium-ion Cells Subject to Accelerated Aging and on Module Performance

This study investigates the impacts of applying different thermal gradient patterns to cylindrical lithium-ion cells in a module on cell dynamics (temperatures, current flows, state of charge), module performance (evolution of resistance, capacity, and energy versus cycle number), and module lifetime. The thermal gradients were generated using cooling plates (CPs) with three different flow-field designs, namely, straight, perpendicular, and U-turn. The study uses computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) battery model, capacity loss and increased impedance due to the growth of a solid-electrolyte-interphase, and the electric current distribution from module terminals to cells that depends on the series-parallel electrical connections among the cells. The impact of the thermal gradient (resulting from the CP designs) on the variability in resistance, current, state of charge, and voltage among the cells was analyzed and linked to differences in the module's performance. Applying a thermal gradient to parallel-connected strings of series-connected cells led to variation in the current through each parallel string and an imbalance in the voltage of series-connected cells. Module performance is poorer when the thermal gradient causes a voltage imbalance than when it causes a current imbalance. Module performance becomes the worst when both current variation and voltage imbalance happen together. For instance, the module's lifetime (estimated as reaching 80% of its initial capacity) varied by 5% to 17.5%, depending on the magnitude and pattern of the imposed thermal gradient. As the relative orientation between thermal gradients and cells' electrical connectivity influences the module's performance, appropriate consideration should be given to the choice of the CP, especially if large thermal gradients are allowed.

Battery thermal management↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting the pseudo-supercritical path method: An improved formulation for the alchemical calculation of solid–liquid coexistence

Alchemical free energy calculations via molecular dynamics have been applied to obtain thermodynamic properties related to solid–liquid equilibrium conditions, such as melting points. In recent years, the pseudo-supercritical path (PSCP) method has proved to be an important approach to melting point prediction due to its flexibility and applicability. In the present work, we propose improvements to the PSCP alchemical cycle to make it more compact and efficient through a concerted evaluation of different potential energies. The multistate Bennett acceptance ratio (MBAR) estimator was applied at all stages of the new cycle to provide greater accuracy and uniformity, which is essential concerning uncertainty calculations. In particular, for the multistate expansion stage from solid to liquid, we employed the MBAR estimator with a reduced energy function that allows affine transformations of coordinates. Free energy and mean derivative profiles were calculated at different cycle stages for argon, triazole, propenal, and the ionic liquid 1-ethyl-3-methyl-imidazolium hexafluorophosphate. Comparisons showed a better performance of the proposed method than the original PSCP cycle for systems with higher complexity, especially the ionic liquid. Furthermore, a detailed study of the expansion stage revealed that remapping the centers of mass of the molecules or ions is preferable to remapping the coordinates of each atom, yielding better overlap between adjacent states and improving the accuracy of the methodology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗