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At least 415 records · Page 23

GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Accuracy of the spectral and radiometric laboratory calibration of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS)

The laboratory procedures, algorithms, measurements, and uncertainties associated with generation of the spectral and radiometric calibration of data acquired by AVIRIS are described. AVIRIS is an airborne sensor that obtains high-spatial-resolution image data of the earth in 224 spectral channels in four spectrometers covering the range from 400 to 2450 nm. The spectral calibration of AVIRIS agrees with the in-flight data to within two nanometers, and the absolute radiometric calibration is consistent with the in-flight verification to 10 percent over the spectral range. In-flight radiometric stability as measured by five consecutive passes over the surface calibration site is reported to be between three and five percent.

Chrien, Thomas G.↗

Algorithms for Autonomous GPS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying: Investigation of Initialization Approaches and Orbit Determination for HEO

This report summarizes the efforts to date in processing GPS measurements in High Earth Orbit (HEO) applications by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR). Two specific projects were conducted; initialization of the orbit propagation software, GEODE, using nominal orbital elements for the IMEX orbit, and processing of actual and simulated GPS data from the AMSAT satellite using a Doppler-only batch filter. CCAR has investigated a number of approaches for initialization of the GEODE orbit estimator with little a priori information. This document describes a batch solution approach that uses pseudorange or Doppler measurements collected over an orbital arc to compute an epoch state estimate. The algorithm is based on limited orbital element knowledge from which a coarse estimate of satellite position and velocity can be determined and used to initialize GEODE. This algorithm assumes knowledge of nominal orbital elements, (a, e, i, omega, omega) and uses a search on time of perigee passage (tau(sub p)) to estimate the host satellite position within the orbit and the approximate receiver clock bias. Results of the method are shown for a simulation including large orbital uncertainties and measurement errors. In addition, CCAR has attempted to process GPS data from the AMSAT satellite to obtain an initial estimation of the orbit. Limited GPS data have been received to date, with few satellites tracked and no computed point solutions. Unknown variables in the received data have made computations of a precise orbit using the recovered pseudorange difficult. This document describes the Doppler-only batch approach used to compute the AMSAT orbit. Both actual flight data from AMSAT, and simulated data generated using the Satellite Tool Kit and Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Simulator, were processed. Results for each case and conclusion are presented.

Axelrad, Penina↗

The Evolution of the Galaxy Rest-Frame Ultraviolet Luminosity Function Over the First Two Billion Years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function at z = 4 to 8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the CANDELS/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1- 2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6-1.2 ×10(exp 6) Mpc(exp 3) over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for bright (M(sub UV) less than −21) and faint (M(sub UV) = −18) galaxies. We select galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 galaxies at 3.5 less than z less than 8.5, with more than 1000 galaxies at z of approximately 6 - 8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for galaxies in our redshift samples, as well as a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright galaxies at z of greater than or equal to 6. Our bestfit value of the characteristic magnitude M* is consistent with −21 at z of greater than or equal to 5, different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift. At z = 8, a single power-law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7, an exponential cutoff at the bright-end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M* is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright-end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, though a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M(sub UV) = −17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 + z)((exp −4.3)(+/-)(0.5)) at z greater than 4, consistent with observations at z greater than or equal to 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at redshift of approximately greater than 10, completes at z greater than 6, and reaches a midpoint (x(sub HII) = 0.5) at 6.7 less than z less than 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, though consistent with recent estimates of bright z similar to 10 galaxies.

Galaxy↗

Comments on the accuracy of Baker-Nunn observations

Many factors influence the accuracy with which the satellite positions may be derived from Baker-Nunn observations. Some of these factors are more important than others. In an accuracy study of satellite tracking methods there are invariably two distinct aspects to be investigated: the accuracy with which the satellite position can be referred to the reference system used - the stellar framework in the case of the optical observations, and the accuracy of the instant of observation. It is generally desirable to keep time as an independent variable so that any uncertainty in measuring the time of observation will be reflected in the positional accuracy.

Lambeck, K.↗

In-situ measurements of lunar heat flow

During the Apollo program two successful heat flow measurements were made in situ on the lunar surface. At the Apollo 15 site a value of 0.0000031 watts/sqcm was measured and at the Apollo 17 site a value of 0.0000022 watts/sqcm was determined. Both measurements have uncertainty limits of + or - 20% and have been corrected for perturbing topographic effects. The apparent difference between the observations may correlate with observed variations in the surface abundance of thorium. Comparison with earlier determinations of heat flow, using the microwave emission spectrum from the moon, gives support to the high gradients and heat flows observed in situ.

Langseth, M. G.↗

In-situ measurements of lunar heat flow

During the Apollo program two successful heat flow measurements were made in situ on the lunar surface. At the Apollo 15 site a value of .0000031 W/sq cm was measured, and at the Apollo 17 site a value of .0000022 W/sq cm was determined. Both measurements have uncertainty limits of + or - 20 percent and have been corrected for perturbing topographic effects. The apparent difference between the observations may correlate with observed variations in the surface abundance of thorium. Comparison with earlier determinations of heat flow, using the microwave emission spectrum from the moon, gives support to the high gradients and heat flows observed in situ.

Langseth, M. B.↗

Equation of state fits to the lower mantle and outer core

The lower mantle and outer core are subjected to tests for homogeneity and adiabaticity. An earth model is used which is based on the inversion of body waves and Q-corrected normal-mode data. Homogeneous regions are found at radii between 5125 and 4825 km, 4600 and 3850 km, and 3200 and 2200 km. The lower mantle and outer core are inhomogeneous on the whole and are only homogeneous in the above local regions. Finite-strain and atomistic equations of state are fit to the homogeneous regions. The apparent convergence of the finite-strain relations is examined to judge their applicability to a given region. In some cases the observed pressure derivatives of the elastic moduli are used as additional constraints. The effect of minor deviations from adiabaticity on the extrapolations is also considered. An ensemble of zero-pressure values of the density and seismic velocities are found for these regions. The range of extrapolated values from these several approaches provides a measure of uncertainties involved.

Butler, R.↗

Water vapor measurement system in global atmospheric sampling program, appendix

The water vapor measurement system used in the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is described. The system used a modified version of a commercially available dew/frostpoint hygrometer with a thermoelectrically cooled mirror sensor. The modifications extended the range of the hygrometer to enable air sample measurements with frostpoint temperatures down to -80 C at altitudes of 6 to 13 km. Other modifications were made to permit automatic, unattended operation in an aircraft environment. This report described the hygrometer, its integration with the GASP system, its calibration, and operational aspects including measurement errors. The estimated uncertainty of the dew/frostpoint measurements was + or - 1.7 Celsius.

Englund, D. R.↗

Progress in airborne infrared and submillimetre spectroscopy

The role of spectral resolution and of instrumental sensitivity in astronomical spectroscopy conducted from aircraft is discussed. One cause of difficulty in changing atmospheric transmission is the variations in water vapor content above the aircraft. A main source of uncertainty in measurements is the modulation of the observed signal.

Harwit, M.↗

Optical constants of organic tholins produced in a simulated Titanian atmosphere - From soft X-ray to microwave frequencies

The determination of the real (n) and imaginary (k) parts of the complex refractive index of thin films of the dark reddish organic solids called tholins, produced by continuous D.C. discharge through a 0.9 N2/0.1 CH4 gas mixture at 0.2 mb, is reported. For the 250 A-1000 micron wavelength range, n and k have been determined from a combination of transmittance, specular reflectance, interferometric, Brewster angle, and ellipsometric polarization measurements. Experimental uncertainties are estimated at + or -0.05 for n and + or -30 percent for k. The results in the visible range are consistent with deductions made by ground-based and spacecraft observations of Titan, in whose atmosphase tholins are thought to be present.

Khare, B. N.↗

Absolute oscillator strengths for 108 lines of Si I between 163 and 410 nanometers

Measurements of neutral silicon oscillator strengths (f-values) obtained by absorption and emission techniques have been combined using the numerical procedure of Cardon et al. (1979) to produce 108 f-values for the Si I lines between 163 and 410 nm. Beam-foil-lifetime measurements were employed to determine the absolute scale. The present measurements have uncertainties of about 0.07 dex (+ or - 16 percent) at the 1-sigma level of confidence. Good agreement is obtained between the results and previous data. The data also provide upper limits for the f-values of 22 other lines and information on the lifetimes for 36 levels in Si I.

Smith, Peter L.↗

Evaluation of various thrust calculation techniques on an F404 engine

In support of performance testing of the X-29A aircraft at the NASA-Ames, various thrust calculation techniques were developed and evaluated for use on the F404-GE-400 engine. The engine was thrust calibrated at NASA-Lewis. Results from these tests were used to correct the manufacturer's in-flight thrust program to more accurately calculate thrust for the specific test engine. Data from these tests were also used to develop an independent, simplified thrust calculation technique for real-time thrust calculation. Comparisons were also made to thrust values predicted by the engine specification model. Results indicate uninstalled gross thrust accuracies on the order of 1 to 4 percent for the various in-flight thrust methods. The various thrust calculations are described and their usage, uncertainty, and measured accuracies are explained. In addition, the advantages of a real-time thrust algorithm for flight test use and the importance of an accurate thrust calculation to the aircraft performance analysis are described. Finally, actual data obtained from flight test are presented.

Ray, Ronald J.↗

An endorsement-based approach to student modeling for planner-controlled intelligent tutoring systems

An approach is described to student modeling for intelligent tutoring systems based on an explicit representation of the tutor's beliefs about the student and the arguments for and against those beliefs (called endorsements). A lexicographic comparison of arguments, sorted according to evidence reliability, provides a principled means of determining those beliefs that are considered true, false, or uncertain. Each of these beliefs is ultimately justified by underlying assessment data. The endorsement-based approach to student modeling is particularly appropriate for tutors controlled by instructional planners. These tutors place greater demands on a student model than opportunistic tutors. Numerical calculi approaches are less well-suited because it is difficult to correctly assign numbers for evidence reliability and rule plausibility. It may also be difficult to interpret final results and provide suitable combining functions. When numeric measures of uncertainty are used, arbitrary numeric thresholds are often required for planning decisions. Such an approach is inappropriate when robust context-sensitive planning decisions must be made. A TMS-based implementation of the endorsement-based approach to student modeling is presented, this approach is compared to alternatives, and a project history is provided describing the evolution of this approach.

Murray, William R.↗

Expert networks in CLIPS

Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

Hruska, S. I.↗