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At least 415 records · Page 23

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

Modeling the Prompt Optical Emission of GRB 180325A: The Evolution of a Spike from the Optical to Gamma Rays

The transition from prompt to afterglow emission is one of the most exciting and least understood phases in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Correlations among optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray emission in GRBs have been explored, to attempt to answer whether the earliest optical emission comes from internal and/or external shocks. We present optical photometric observations of GRB 180325A collected with the TAROT and RATIR ground-based telescopes. These observations show two strong optical flashes with separate peaks at ∼50 and ∼120 s, followed by a temporally extended optical emission. We also present X-rays and gamma-ray observations of GRB 180325A, detected by the Burst Alert Telescope and X-ray Telescope, on the Neil Gehrels Swift observatory, which both observed a narrow flash at ∼80 s. We show that the prompt gamma-ray and X-ray early emission shares similar temporal and spectral features consistent with internal dissipation within the relativistic outflow (e.g., by internal shocks or magnetic reconnection), while the early optical flashes are likely generated by the reverse shock that decelerates the ejecta as it sweeps up the external medium.

R. L. Becerra↗

Jovian longitudinal control of Io-related radio emissions

A theoretical model is proposed to explain the control of Io-related radio emissions by Jupiter's rotational phase. The model is based on the hypothesis that the radio emissions are generated by Birkeland currents flowing between Io and the Jovian ionosphere. Specifically, it is suggested that the precipitation of radiation-belt electrons within a certain range of Jovian longitudes produces a restricted region of enhanced ionization and correspondingly enhanced conductivity in Jupiter's ionosphere and that the Io-Jupiter Birkeland current and the associated radio emissions are dramatically increased when Io's flux tube encounters this sector of enhanced ionization in Jupiter's ionosphere. The magnitude of the current is found to be about 100,000 A at most Jovian longitudes because of ionospheric resistance. It is estimated that within the favored longitudinal sector electron precipitation produces an enhancement of this current by one to three orders of magnitude. The model predictions are compared with observations made during the Pioneer 10 and 11 flybys, and satisfactory agreement is obtained.

Dessler, A. J.↗

Description and Evaluation of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry Model (NMMB-MONARCH) Version 1.0: Gas-Phase Chemistry at Global Scale

This paper presents a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry component of the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (NMMBMONARCH), formerly known as NMMB/BSC-CTM, that can be run on both regional and global domains. Here, we provide an extensive evaluation of a global annual cycle simulation using a variety of background surface stations (EMEP, WDCGG and CASTNET), ozonesondes (WOUDC, CMD and SHADOZ), aircraft data (MOZAIC and several campaigns), and satellite observations (SCIAMACHY and MOPITT).We also include an extensive discussion of our results in comparison to other state-of-the-art models. We note that in this study, we omitted aerosol processes and some natural emissions (lightning and volcano emissions). The model shows a realistic oxidative capacity across the globe. The seasonal cycle for CO is fairly well represented at different locations (correlations around 0.3-0.7 in surface concentrations), although concentrations are underestimated in spring and winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and are overestimated throughout the year at 800 and 500 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere. Nitrogen species are well represented in almost all locations, particularly NO2 in Europe (root mean square error - RMSE - below 5 ppb). The modeled vertical distributions of NOx and HNO3 are in excellent agreement with the observed values and the spatial and seasonal trends of tropospheric NO2 columns correspond well to observations from SCIAMACHY, capturing the highly polluted areas and the biomass burning cycle throughout the year. Over Asia, the model underestimates NOx from March to August, probably due to an underestimation of NOx emissions in the region. Overall, the comparison of the modeled CO and NO2 with MOPITT and SCIAMACHY observations emphasizes the need for more accurate emission rates from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources (i.e., specification of temporal variability).

atmospheric chemistry↗

Line emission from H II blister models

Numerical techniques to calculate the thermal and geometric properties of line emission from H II 'blister' regions are presented. It is assumed that the density distributions of the H II regions are a function of two dimensions, with rotational symmetry specifying the shape in three-dimensions. The thermal and ionization equilibrium equations of the problem are solved by spherical modeling, and a spherical sector approximation is used to simplify the three-dimensional treatment of diffuse ionizing radiation. The global properties of H II 'blister' regions near the edges of a molecular cloud are simulated by means of the geometry/density distribution, and the results are compared with observational data. It is shown that there is a monotonic increase of peak surface brightness from the i = 0 deg (pole-on) observational position to the i = 90 deg (edge-on) position. The enhancement of the line peak intensity from the edge-on to the pole-on positions is found to depend on the density, stratification, ionization, and electron temperature weighting. It is found that as i increases, the position of peak line brightness of the lower excitation species is displaced to the high-density side of the high excitation species.

Rubin, R. H.↗

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

Constraining the Absolute Orientation of eta Carinae's Binary Orbit: A 3-D Dynamical Model for the Broad [Fe III] Emission

We present a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission observed in Eta Carinae using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS). This model is based on full 3-D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of Eta Car's binary colliding winds. Radiative transfer codes are used to generate synthetic spectro-images of [Fe III] emission line structures at various observed orbital phases and STIS slit position angles (PAs). Through a parameter study that varies the orbital inclination i, the PA(theta) that the orbital plane projection of the line-of-sight makes with the apastron side of the semi-major axis, and the PA on the sky of the orbital axis, we are able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the absolute 3-D orientation of the binary orbit. To simultaneously reproduce the blue-shifted emission arcs observed at orbital phase 0.976, STIS slit PA = +38deg, and the temporal variations in emission seen at negative slit PAs, the binary needs to have an i approx. = 130deg to 145deg, Theta approx. = -15deg to +30deg, and an orbital axis projected on the sky at a P A approx. = 302deg to 327deg east of north. This represents a system with an orbital axis that is closely aligned with the inferred polar axis of the Homunculus nebula, in 3-D. The companion star, Eta(sub B), thus orbits clockwise on the sky and is on the observer's side of the system at apastron. This orientation has important implications for theories for the formation of the Homunculus and helps lay the groundwork for orbital modeling to determine the stellar masses.

Madura, T. I.↗

A NICER View of Spectral and Profile Evolution for Three X-ray-Emitting Millisecond Pulsars

We present two years of Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray observations of three energetic rotation-powered millisecond pulsars (MSPs): PSRs B1937+21, B1821−24, and J0218+4232. We fit Gaussians and Lorentzians to the pulse profiles for different energy sub-bands of the soft X-ray regime to measure the energy dependence of pulse separation and width. We find that the separation between pulse components of PSR J0218+4232 decreases with increasing energy at >3σ confidence. The 95% upper limit on pulse separation evolution for PSRs B1937+21 and B1821−24 is less than 2 milliperiods per keV. Our phase-resolved spectral results provide updated constraints on the non-thermal X-ray emission of these three pulsars. The photon indices of the modeled X-ray emission spectra for each pulse component of PSR B1937+21 are inconsistent with each other at the 90% confidence level, suggesting different emission origins for each pulse. We find that the PSR B1821−24 and PSR J0218+4232 emission spectra are invariant with phase at the 90% confidence level. We describe the implications of our profile and spectral results in the context of equatorial current sheet emission models for these three MSPs with non-thermal, magnetospheric X-ray emission.

Dominick M Rowan↗

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Santa Ana (SA)↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year−1 (1Tg = 1012 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH4 year−1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of −34 to −46 Tg CH4 year−1, we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH4 year−1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

wetland methane emission↗

Test and model correlation of the atmospheric emission photometric imager fiberglass pedestal

The correlation is presented of the static loads testing and finite element modeling for the fiberglass pedestal used on the Atmospheric Emission Photometric Imaging (AEPI) experiment. This payload is to be launched in the space shuttle as part of the ATLAS-1 experiment. Strain gauge data from rosettes around the highly loaded base are compared to the same load case run for the Spacelab 1 testing done in 1981. Correlation of the model and test data was accomplished through comparison of the composite stress invariant using the expected flight loads for the ATLAS-1 mission. Where appropriate, the Tsai-Wu failure criteria was used in the development of the key margins of safety. Margins of safety are all positive for the pedestal and are reported.

Lee, H. M., III↗

An outer gap model of high-energy emission from rotation-powered pulsars

We describe a refined calculation of high-energy emission from rotation-powered pulsars based on the outer gap model of Cheng, Ho, & Ruderman (1986 a, b). In this calculation, vacuum gaps form in regions near the speed-of-light cylinder of the pulsar magnetosphere along the boundary between the closed and open field line zones. We have improved upon previous efforts to model the spectra from these pulsars (e.g., Cheng et al. 1986b; Ho 1989) by following the variation in particle production and radiation properties with position in the outer gap. Curvature, synchotron, and inverse-Compton scattering fluxes vary significantly over the gap, and their interactions via photon-photon pair production build up the radiating charge populations at varying rates. We have also incorporated an approximate treatment of the transport particle and photon fluxes between gap emission zones. These effects, along with improved computations of the particle and photon distribution, provide very important modifications of the model gamma-ray flux. In paticular, we attempt to make specific predictions of pulse profile shapes and spectral variations as a function of pulse phase and suggest further extensions to the model which may provide accurate computations of the observed high-energy emissions.

Chiang, James↗

Origin and evolution of the radio emission from immediate postoutburst supernovae

Several models for the radio emission from immediate postoutburst supernovae are examined under the assumption that the expanding remnant consists of a homogeneously mixed distribution of relativistic particles, magnetic field, and thermal plasma. The evolutionary models are: (1) an adiabatic expansion model; (2) a model incorporating the existence of a central pulsar; and (3) variations on the first two models in which relativistic electrons are accelerated either instantaneously or over an extended period of time and in which ionization, bremsstrahlung, synchrotron, Compton, and expansion losses are explicitly included. The character of the radio emission expected from these models is quite dissimilar. Whereas in adiabatic expansion models the emission is expected to increase slowly and become most intense at high frequencies, in models involving a central pulsar the emission should increase rapidly with a maximum flux density that is the same at all frequencies. The theoretical evolution of the radio emission for each model is compared with observations of SN 1970g.

Marscher, A. P.↗