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DOE OSTI2026

Significant Rural Contributions to Severe Coastal Urban Flooding Through Flow Connectivity

Coastal cities are increasingly threatened by hurricane-induced compound flooding. However, the relative contributions of rainfall-surge interactions and other flood drivers, such as runoff from surrounding rural and local impervious areas, in shaping urban flooding remain unclear. Here, we use a multi-scale Earth system modeling framework to disentangle the contributions of diverse flooding drivers. The results show that urban flooding is primarily affected by topographic factors (low elevation, flat slopes, and localized flow constrictions), rather than increased runoff from their impervious surfaces. Importantly, runoff from rural areas contributes more to severely flooded urban areas with inundation depth exceeding 1.7 m than local runoff. Although rainfall–surge interactions and sea-level rise exacerbate inundation along the coastline, over 90% of the compounding effects are absorbed by wetlands. By resolving flooding processes across scales and components, this study emphasizes the role of runoff from surrounding rural areas in shaping zones of severe urban flooding.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of a nocturnal low-level jet from a broad baroclinic zone

An analytical model is presented for the generation of a Blackadar-like nocturnal low-level jet in a broad baroclinic zone. The flow is forced from below (flat ground) by a surface buoyancy gradient and from above (free atmosphere) by a constant pressure gradient force. Diurnally-varying mixing coefficients are specified to increase abruptly at sunrise and decrease abruptly at sunset. With attention restricted to a surface buoyancy that varies linearly with a horizontal coordinate, the Boussinesq-approximated equations of motion, thermal energy, and mass conservation reduce to a system of one-dimensional equations that can be solved analytically. Sensitivity tests with southerly jets suggest that (i) stronger jets are associated with larger decreases of the eddy viscosity at sunset (as in Blackadar theory), (ii) the nighttime surface buoyancy gradient has little impact on jet strength, and (iii) for pure baroclinic forcing (no free-atmosphere geostrophic wind), the nighttime eddy diffusivity has little impact on jet strength, but the daytime eddy diffusivity is very important and has a larger impact than the daytime eddy viscosity. The model was applied to a jet that developed in fair weather conditions over the Great Plains from southern Texas to northern South Dakota on 1 May 2020. The ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for the afternoon prior to jet formation showed that a broad north-south-oriented baroclinic zone covered much of the region. The peak model-predicted winds were in good agreement with ERA5 winds and lidar data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) central facility in north-central Oklahoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for Suppression of Structure Growth in the Concordance Cosmological Model

We present evidence for a suppressed growth rate of large-scale structure during the dark-energy dominated era. Modeling the growth rate of perturbations with the ``growth index'' γ, we find that current cosmological data strongly prefer a higher growth index than the value γ=0.55 predicted by general relativity in a flat ΛCDM cosmology. Both the cosmic microwave background data from Planck and the large-scale structure data from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, and cosmic velocities separately favor growth suppression. When combined, they yield γ = 0.633$^{+0.025}_{–0.024}$, excluding γ = 0.55 at a statistical significance of 3.7σ. The combination of fσ8 and Planck measurements prefers an even higher growth index of γ = 0.639$^{+0.024}_{–0.025}$, corresponding to a 4.2σ-tension with the concordance model. In Planck data, the suppressed growth rate offsets the preference for nonzero curvature and fits the data equally well as the latter model. Furthermore, a higher γ leads to a higher matter fluctuation amplitude S 8 inferred from galaxy clustering and weak lensing measurements, and a lower S 8 from Planck data, effectively resolving the S 8 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Silicon Photovoltaic Modules to Support a Circular Economy Transition

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technologies for clean, cheap, and sustainable electricity generation. To prepare for rapid scale-up, the PV industry needs to project material requirements to build out all aspects of the supply chain appropriately and plan to handle large volumes of module waste. Impacts of deploying different material circularity strategies to reduce waste and conserve primary resources need to be quantified to inform sustainable material management. Here, we introduce the photovoltaic dynamic material flow analysis (PV DMFA) model based on PV electricity generation. The model quantifies material flows and stocks in the cradle-to-cradle life cycles of utility-scale c-Si PV systems in the United States through 2100. We present case studies for solar flat glass and aluminum frame materials under various scenarios to project the impacts of PV performance, reliability, and processing parameters, material circularity strategies, and module design shifts. In the absence of circularity measures, ~100 million MT of flat glass and ~12 million MT of aluminum would be needed for PV installations by 2100 to meet projected growth in domestic utility PV demand to nearly 1000 TWh in 2100. With optimistic but feasible improvements in efficiency, reliability, and circularity, material intensity and waste could be reduced by nearly 50%. Efficient module collection, minimally intrusive recycling, and careful scrap handling and cleaning could improve material circularity in the PV value chain. This model serves as a sustainability data support tool that may aid in the circular economy transition for PV systems.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Methods for Assessing Opportunities for Ring Dam Pumped Storage Hydropower

There is growing interest in new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) deployment to provide a range of grid flexibility, reliability, and resiliency services under an evolving and uncertain future power sector. The National Laboratory of the Rockies develops open PSH resource assessment and cost modeling tools to help evaluate PSH deployment opportunities, and this report describes expansions to those tools to consider an additional PSH system configuration - ring-dam reservoirs built on flat topographical features that are constructed from roller-compacted concrete material. This reservoir type is common among current PSH proposals and requires new methods to identify sites with this reservoir geometry throughout the United States and characterize the associated dam cost. Cost characterization for ring dam reservoirs required collecting historical dam cost data for earthen, rockfill, and roller-compacted concrete dams and regressing equations that relate costs between alternative materials. The ring dam site identification algorithm follows a 5-step procedure to identify circular geometry reservoirs. Once ring dam reservoirs are identified, they are then paired with potential dry-gully reservoirs, and the full set of potential paired reservoirs is cost-optimized to produce a least-cost set of potential PSH sites with no overlapping reservoirs. The resulting analysis found 1,663 ring-dam to dry-gully systems in the contiguous United States that are lower cost than any overlapping dry-gully to dry-gully systems, 29 in Alaska, and none in Hawaii or Puerto Rico. These systems constitute 1.5 TW of capacity in the contiguous United States and nearly 29 GW in Alaska, demonstrating that under suitable topography and head, ring-dam systems can provide cost-effective PSH opportunities. The greatest density of these opportunities are found in the intermountain west where there are mesas and flat land at bases of mountain ranges, but continued work could incorporate additional site characteristics or consider more complex reservoir shapes to find additional PSH deployment opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experiment-modeling studies comparing energy dissipation in the DIII-D SAS and SAS-VW divertors

Recent DIII-D experiments on Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertors have confirmed that a combination of divertor closure and target shaping can enhance cooling across the divertor target and increase energy dissipation, but with significant dependence on B T (toroidal magnetic field) direction. In these novel divertors, the roles of closure, target shaping, drifts, and scale lengths are all interconnected in optimizing dissipation, with the separatrix electron density n eSEP being the key parameter associated with the level of dissipation/detachment. After modifying the original flat-targeted graphite SAS to include a V shape with a tungsten coating on the outer side of the divertor (SAS-VW), matched series of discharges were run to compare to detailed SOLPS-ITER modeling. Experimentally, when run as designed with the outer strike point at the slot vertex, SAS-VW requires nearly identical n eSEP for detachment as the original SAS, with little difference in dissipation for the new geometry. This is in contrast to (1) earlier modeling predictions that a small change of the SAS geometry to a V shape should enhance dissipation at the same n eSEP for magnetic configurations having better H-mode access (ion B × ∇B drift directed into the divertor), and (2) despite the achievement of significantly higher (2-7x) neutral pressures and compression in the SAS-VW slot. Comparisons of experimental density scans to the most recent SOLPS-ITER modeling with ExB drifts show reasonable agreement for dissipation/detachment onset when using separatrix density as the independent parameter. In order to help understand the discrepancy in modeled vs actual performance for the new configuration, additional measurements varying gas injection location and impurity injection were undertaken. In-slot D 2 gas fueling is more effective (5–22 %) in promoting detachment, in accord with modeling. In-slot impurity injection (N 2 or Ne) can yield 30 % lower core Z eff and 15 % less confinement degradation after detachment compared to main chamber puffing, as well as relatively lower tungsten leakage from the divertor. Modeling can also reproduce the improved detachment seen as the strike point moves inboard of the slot vertex. While we can explain the effects of the most important parameters causing energy dissipation in these slot divertors, it remains that many aspects of their behavior cannot be accurately modeled using state-of-art codes such as SOLPS-ITER. This is of concern for future model-driven designs utilizing similar V-shaped geometries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Insights into Stress Corrosion Cracking and Dissolution of Metal Oxides

Oxide phases such as α-Fe2O3 (hematite) and α-Al2O3 (corundum) are highly insoluble in water; however, subcritical crack growth has been observed in humidity nonetheless. Chemically induced bond breaking at the crack tip appears unlikely due to sterically hindered molecular transport. The molecular mechanics of a crack in corundum with a reactive force field reveal minimal lattice trapping, leading to bond breaking before sufficient space opens for water transport. To address this, we model a pre-built blunt crack with space for H2O molecule adsorption at the tip and show that it reduces fracture toughness by lowering the critical J-integral. Then, we explore stress-enhanced dissolution to understand the mechanism of crack tip blunting in the oxide/water system. Density functional theory combined with metadynamics was employed to describe atomic dissolution from flat hematite and corundum surfaces in pure water. Strain accelerates dissolution, stabilizing intermediate states with broken bonds before full atom detachment, while the free energy profile of unstrained surfaces is almost monotonic. The atomistic calculations provided input for a kinetic model, predicting the shape evolution of a blunt crack tip, which displays three distinct regimes: (i) dissolution primarily away from the tip, (ii) enhanced blunting near but not at the apex, and (iii) sharpening near the apex. The transition between regimes occurs at a low strain, highlighting the critical role of water in the subcritical crack growth of oxide scales, with dissolution as the fundamental microscopic mechanism behind this process.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diffraction properties of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in energy range of 2.3–7.5 keV using synchrotron radiation

Verification of physics models and computer simulations are heavily reliant upon the accuracy of experimental measurements. Calibration of instrument responses becomes an important step to achieve this goal. This paper presents systematic studies of bent potassium acid phthalate (KAP) crystals using Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Advanced Light Source, beamline 9.3.1 in the energy range of 2.3 to 7.5 keV. A set of KAP crystals, gradually bent from flat up to a 50.8 mm cylindrical curvature. The measured integrated reflectivity for this set of KAP crystals shows good agreement with the X-ray Oriented Program (XOP) calculations when adjusting the Debye–Waller temperature factor and using the multilamellar model in the calculations. Significant differences in rocking curve profiles were observed between experimental measurements and theory. A forward convolution model and software code were developed to include experimental parameters, allowing the investigation of the difference between measurements and calculations. After considering the experimental parameters, good agreements were obtained for the rocking curve profiles for all bending radii with a unique set of parameters. Our results show that XOP can be a useful and reliable tool to predict performance of cylindrically bent KAP crystals in this energy range.

Wu, Ming↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging Polymorphism in YbCuBi to Map Transport and Elastic Properties

AMX Zintl compounds with the hexagonal ZrBeSi structure have gained significant attention for their remarkable vacancy tolerance and low thermal conductivity. Their 2D honeycomb sublattice, composed of M–X covalent bonds, is believed to contribute to high anharmonicity and unusual thermal transport properties. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent polymorphism of YbCuBi as a model system to investigate the relationship between the structure and elastic and thermal transport properties in AMX Zintls. YbCuBi undergoes a structural transition from the “flat” Cu–Bi layers in the ZrBeSi structure to corrugated layers in the LiGaGe structure below 410 K, resulting in a distortion of its centrosymmetric structure. To probe the effects of this crystallographic transition, we employ inelastic neutron scattering and temperature-dependent resonant ultrasound spectroscopy. These experimental findings, coupled with first-principles calculations and thermal conductivity measurements, allow us to elucidate a direct relationship between corrugation of the honeycomb lattice and the observed changes in elastic and thermal transport properties. These insights can be extended to other Zintl phases with similar structure types, providing a platform for the rational design of functional materials with tailored thermal properties.

Chemical structure↗

DOE OSTI2021

Single-shot measurement of the nonlinear refractive index of air at 92 µm with a picosecond terawatt CO 2 laser

We developed a simple, accurate single-shot method to determine the nonlinear refractive index of air by measuring the evolution of the spatial shape of a laser beam propagating through the atmosphere. A distinctive feature of this new method, which relies on a modified Fresnel propagation model for data analysis, is the use of a hard aperture for producing a welldefined, high-quality beam from a comparatively nonuniform quasi-flat-top beam which is typical for highpeak-power lasers. The nonlinear refractive index of air for a very short (2 ps) long-wave infrared (LWIR) laser pulse was measured for the first time, yielding n 2 = 3.0 × 10 -23 m 2 /W at 9.2 µm. This result is 40% lower than a corresponding measurement with longer (200 ps) LWIR pulses at a similar wavelength.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-temperature thermal conductivity measurements of macro-porous graphite

Graphite is a unique material for high temperature applications and will likely become increasingly important as we attempt to electrify industrial applications. Here, we investigate the thermal properties of low-quality, macro-porous graphite to determine the tradeoff between quality and thermal performance. We use laser flash analysis (LFA) to measure the thermal diffusivity of graphite at high temperatures. Due to the large pores in the graphite samples preventing uniform laser flash heating, we first apply a thick coating to achieve the required flat, parallel surfaces for LFA measurements. We then develop a methodology to extract properties of the sample from the diffusivity measurements, based on finite element modeling of a variety of sample/coating interface profiles. Validating the methodology against a reference sample demonstrates a mean absolute percentage error of 8.5%, with potential improvement with better sample characterization. We show low-quality graphite has a thermal conductivity of ~10 W/m/K up to 1000 °C, which is an order of magnitude lower than high-quality graphite, but contributions from photon conductivity may result in higher conductivities at higher temperatures. Overall, we demonstrate an approach for measuring thermal properties of macro-porous materials at high temperatures, and apply the approach to measuring thermal conductivity of porous graphite, which will aid in the design of hightemperature systems for cost-competitive decarbonization.

Verma, Shomik↗

DOE OSTI2021

Relationships between the Stellar, Gaseous, and Star Formation Disks in LITTLE THINGS Dwarf Irregular Galaxies: Indirect Evidence for Substantial Fractions of Dark Molecular Gas

The stellar, gaseous and young stellar disks in the LITTLE THINGS sample of nearby dwarf irregular galaxies are fitted with functions to search for correlations between the parameters. We find that the H i radial profiles are generally flatter in the center and fall faster in the outer regions than the V-band profiles, while young stars are more centrally concentrated, especially if the H i is more centrally flat. This pattern suggests that the H i is turning into molecules in the center, and the molecular clouds are forming stars and FUV. A model that assumes the molecular surface density is proportional to the total gas surface density to a power of 1.5 or 2, in analogy with the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation, reproduces the relationship between the ratio of the visible to the H i scale length and the H i Sérsic index. The molecular fraction is estimated as a function of radius for each galaxy by converting the FUV to a molecular surface density using conventional calibrations. The average molecular fraction inside 3R {sub D} is 23% ± 17%. However, the break in the stellar surface brightness profile has no unified tracer related to star formation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of gold nanorod systems for enhanced total efficiency: Experimental and numerical analysis

This study investigates the photothermal performance of gold nanorods engineered to exhibit longitudinal plasmon resonances at 695 nm, 780 nm, and 970 nm. The work combines synthesis, structural characterization, extinction measurements, numerical modeling, and controlled temperature experiments to quantify how nanorod geometry, resonance tuning, concentration, and chamber shape jointly influence heat generation. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that increasing nanorod aspect ratio systematically shifts the longitudinal plasmon peak toward the near-infrared region. Extinction measurements show strong agreement with theoretical predictions, validating the numerical model across two independent datasets. Three chamber geometries were tested under laser excitation at 640 nm, 808 nm, and 980 nm: an ascending stepped base, a flat base, and a descending stepped base. Without nanorods, the ascending geometry produced the highest efficiency due to enhanced natural convection. After introducing gold nanorods, all geometries exhibited substantial thermal enhancement, with total efficiencies exceeding 20%. The strongest improvement was obtained for nanorods resonant at 780 nm with a mass concentration of 4.6 mg/mL implemented on the descending stepped-base geometry. This performance resulted from the combined effect of spectral overlapping with the 808 nm laser, the highest nanorod concentration, and localized heat accumulation that intensified buoyancy-driven flow. The findings demonstrate that total efficiency is governed by a synergistic interplay between optical resonance, nanoparticle concentration, and macroscopic chamber design, revealing the system-level coupling between nanoscale plasmonic absorption and macroscale heat-transfer phenomena. The results provide a validated framework for tuning nanoscale plasmonic absorbers and optimizing thermal systems for applications requiring efficient light-to-heat conversion.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmological constraints from a joint DESI DR1 Full-Shape and DR2 BAO

We present a cosmological analysis combining full-shape (FS) clustering measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR1 with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI DR2. To achieve a robust combination that accounts for the correlation between the two data releases, we employ the ShapeFit compression method and estimate the joint covariance using EZmocks. This compressed approach inherently mitigates the prior volume effects that have previously dominated Bayesian constraints from DESI data with minimal external priors. Consequently, we obtain — for the first time within a Bayesian framework — reliable DESI-only constraints on extensions to ΛCDM using only a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis prior on the baryon density and a wide prior on the spectral index. In flat ΛCDM, we find Ω m = 0.3035 ± 0.0085, h = 0.6876 ± 0.0059, and σ 8 = 0.822 ± 0.034. For the w 0 w a CDM dynamical dark energy model, we measure w 0 = -0.49 ± 0.25 and w a = -1.52 ± 0.77, improving constraints by ∼ 30% relative to the analogous DR1 measurement and reducing the discrepancy with ΛCDM to 1.4σ when compared to BAO only analyses. We also report competitive limits on the sum of neutrino masses and spatial curvature. This work demonstrates that the ShapeFit compression provides a prior-robust and computationally efficient pathway to constrain beyond-ΛCDM physics with large-scale structure.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cosmological constraints from H ii starburst galaxy apparent magnitude and other cosmological measurements

ABSTRACT We use H ii starburst galaxy apparent magnitude measurements to constrain cosmological parameters in six cosmological models. A joint analysis of H ii galaxy, quasar angular size, baryon acoustic oscillations peak length scale, and Hubble parameter measurements result in relatively model-independent and restrictive estimates of the current values of the non-relativistic matter density parameter $\Omega _{\rm m_0}$ and the Hubble constant H0. These estimates favour a 2.0–3.4σ (depending on cosmological model) lower H0 than what is measured from the local expansion rate. The combined data are consistent with dark energy being a cosmological constant and with flat spatial hypersurfaces, but do not strongly rule out mild dark energy dynamics or slightly non-flat spatial geometries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the tool influence function during sub-aperture belt-on-wheel glass polishing

The tool influence function (TIF) during sub-aperture belt-on-wheel polishing has been evaluated as a function of various process conditions (belt use/wear, dwell time, displacement, belt velocity, and wheel modulus and diameter) on fused silica glass workpieces using C e O 2 polishing media. TIF spots are circular or elliptical in shape with a largely flat bottom character. Furthermore, the volumetric removal rate varies significantly with belt use (or wear), stabilizing after ~ 15 m i n of use. A modified Preston model, where the pressure dependence is adjusted using a different scaling of the wheel modulus ( E w 0.5 ), largely predicts the volumetric removal rate over the range of process conditions evaluated. The relatively high volumetric removal rate of 30 - 60 m m 3 / h using a fixed C e O 2 -in-resin-host belt offers a rapid, and hence, more economical, initial polish of aspheric and freeform optics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Forward-Looking Dataset of EV Managed Charging Resource and Costs

This presentation summarizes a high-resolution, forward-looking dataset of EV adoption, EV charging, and managed charging resource. Vehicle-level data are grounded in current adoption and charging patterns, and ~200,000 real-world vehicle-weeks of travel data covering all on-road segments (i.e., light-duty, transit and school buses, local, regional and long-haul medium- and heavy-duty). The data, which include multiple charging profiles per vehicle to bound flexibility, are then processed and aggregated to describe baseline charging and charge management resource by county, hour, year, scenario, and vehicle type. Coupled with one of four scenarios of how EV managed charging costs might evolve over time, the dataset enables a power sector capacity expansion model to select cost-optimal quantities of EV managed charging and supply-side resources to reliably satisfy demand. Five integration strategies: Baseline, Daytime and Flat (passive), Flex (active), and Stress (anti-strategy), illustrate how baseline charging and flexibility potential changes with EVSE build-out and charging preferences.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗