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At least 415 records · Page 23

Path dependence of J in three numerical examples

Three cracked geometries are studied with the aid of a new finite element model. The procedure employs a variable singularity at the crack tip that tracks changes in the material response during the loading process. Two of the problems are tension-loaded center-crack panels and the other is a three-point bend specimen. Results usually agree with other numerical and analytical analyses, except the finding that J is path dependent as a substantial plastic zone develops. Credible J values are obtained near the crack tip and J shows a significant increase as the radius of J path increases over two orders of magnitude. Incremental and deformation theories are identical provided the stresses exhibit proportionality found in the far field stresses but not near the tip.

Karabin, M. E., Jr.↗

Independent Calibration Approach for the CLARREO Pathfinder Mission

A CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF) mission has been funded to demonstrate retrieval of SI-traceable spectral reflectance with absolute uncertainty <0.3% (k=1). The mission consists of a Reflected Solar spectrometer that will be hosted on the International Space Station (ISS) in the 2023 timeframe and rely on a ratioing radiometer approach to retrieve the unprecedented accuracy. Demonstrating that the accuracy is achieved through an Independent Calibration effort similar in philosophy to the efforts in metrology laboratories relying on multiple, independent measurements to improve credibility for a sensor’s absolute and relative uncertainty error budgets. These measurements use different traceability paths and multiple instrument approaches and CPF’s Independent Calibration will be similar in this regard. The Independent Calibration relies on a pre-launch absolute radiometric calibration obtained from additional testing done after instrument thermal-vacuum (TVAC) testing. The added radiometric calibration is combined with a high fidelity instrument model to provide an on-orbit radiometric calibration independent from the ratioing radiometer approach. The current work describes the post-TVAC testing portion of the CPF Independent Calibration Plan and the Independent Model Development as well as planned on-orbit Evaluation of the Independent Calibration.

CLARREO Pathfinder↗

Condensation Processes in Astrophysical Environments

Astrophysical systems present an intriguing set of challenges for laboratory chemists. Chemistry occurs in regions considered an excellent vacuum by laboratory standards and at temperatures that would vaporize laboratory equipment. Outflows around Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars have timescales ranging from seconds to weeks depending on the distance of the region of interest from the star and, on the way significant changes in the state variables are defined. The atmospheres in normal stars may only change significantly on several billion-year timescales. Most laboratory experiments carried out to understand astrophysical processes are not done at conditions that perfectly match the natural suite of state variables or timescales appropriate for natural conditions. Experimenters must make use of simple analog experiments that place limits on the behavior of natural systems, often extrapolating to lower-pressure and/or higher-temperature environments. Nevertheless, we argue that well-conceived experiments will often provide insights into astrophysical processes that are impossible to obtain through models or observations. This is especially true for complex chemical phenomena such as the formation and metamorphism of refractory grains under a range of astrophysical conditions. Data obtained in our laboratory has been surprising in numerous ways, ranging from the composition of the condensates to the thermal evolution of their spectral properties. None of this information could have been predicted from first principals and would not have been credible even if it had.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

New proposed ITER divertor design using carbon insert on tungsten to mitigate ELMs and secondary radiation effects on nearby components

Abstract Building a successful device for the magnetic fusion energy production is a great challenge. ITER is an international project of the tokamak based magnetic fusion design being developed for the demonstration of the feasibility of thermonuclear technologies for future realization of successful commercial fusion energy. A key obstacle to a successful magnetic fusion energy production is however, the performance during abnormal events including plasma disruptions and edge-localized modes (ELMs). A credible reactor design must tolerate at least a few of these transient events without serious consequences such as melting of the structure. This paper investigates and compares the performance of the current ITER tokamak design during two types of transient events, i.e., ELMs occurring at normal operation and disruptions during abnormal operation. We simulated the divertor components response using our integrated 3D HEIGHTS package. The simulations include self-consistent modeling of the interaction of the released core plasma particles with the initial solid divertor material, energy deposition processes, vaporization of divertor material, secondary plasma formation and MHD evolution, incident core particles collisions and scattering from this dense secondary plasma, photon radiation of secondary plasma, and the resulting heat loads on nearby components. Our simulations showed that using a small carbon insert around the strike point can significantly reduce the overall expected damage on the tungsten dome structure, reflector plates, and prevent tungsten vaporization and its potential core plasma contamination.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Method for obtaining aerodynamic data on hypersonic configurations with scramjet exhaust flow simulation

A hypersonic wind tunnel test method for obtaining credible aerodynamic data on a complete hypersonic vehicle (generic X-24c) with scramjet exhaust flow simulation is described. The general problems of simulating the scramjet exhaust as well as accounting for scramjet inlet flow and vehicle forces are analyzed, and candidate test methods are described and compared. The method selected as most useful makes use of a thrust-minus-drag flow-through balance with a completely metric model. Inlet flow is diverted by a fairing. The incremental effect of the fairing is determined in the testing of two reference models. The net thrust of the scramjet module is an input to be determined in large-scale module tests with scramjet combustion. Force accounting is described, and examples of force component levels are predicted. Compatibility of the test method with candidate wind tunnel facilities is described, and a preliminary model mechanical arrangement drawing is presented. The balance design and performance requirements are described in a detailed specification. Calibration procedures, model instrumentation, and a test plan for the model are outlined.

Hartill, W. R.↗

Integrated System Health Management: Foundational Concepts, Approach, and Implementation

Implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) capability is fundamentally linked to the management of data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) with the purposeful objective of determining the health of a system. It is akin to having a team of experts who are all individually and collectively observing and analyzing a complex system, and communicating effectively with each other in order to arrive to an accurate and reliable assessment of its health. This paper presents concepts, procedures, and a specific approach as a foundation for implementing a credible ISHM capability. The capability stresses integration of DIaK from all elements of a subsystem. The intent is also to make possible implementation of on-board ISHM capability, in contrast to a remote capability. The information presented is the result of many years of research, development, and maturation of technologies, and of prototype implementations in operational systems (rocket engine test facilities). The paper will address the following topics: ISHM Model of a system; detection of anomaly indicators; determination and confirmation of anomalies; diagnostic of causes and determination of effects; consistency checking cycle; sharing of health information; sharing of display information; storage and retrieval of health information; and example implementation.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Determination of aerodynamic stability and drag of the Titan 3 C SRM during entry

An experimental aerodynamic investigation was conducted in the NASA/MSFC 14-inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel on a 0.00736 scale model of Titan 3 C Solid Rocket Motor (SRM). Static stability and drag data were obtained for Mach numbers of 0.6 to 4.96, angles of attack of minus 10 deg to 190 deg, and roll angles of 0 to 360 deg. The resulting data will be used to predict the dynamic motions of the SRM during entry which will then be compared to flight data. This comparison will improve and lend credibility to methods for predicting the entry dynamics of the space shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), which is needed for recovery studies and design of the parachute recovery system.

Ramsey, P. E.↗

Integrated System Health Management: Foundational Concepts, Approach, and Implementation.

Implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) capability is fundamentally linked to the management of data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) with the purposeful objective of determining the health of a system. It is akin to having a team of experts who are all individually and collectively observing and analyzing a complex system, and communicating effectively with each other in order to arrive to an accurate and reliable assessment of its health. We present concepts, procedures, and a specific approach as a foundation for implementing a credible ISHM capability. The capability stresses integration of DIaK from all elements of a system. The intent is also to make possible implementation of on-board ISHM capability, in contrast to a remote capability. The information presented is the result of many years of research, development, and maturation of technologies, and of prototype implementations in operational systems (rocket engine test facilities). The paper will address the following topics: 1. ISHM Model of a system 2. Detection of anomaly indicators. 3. Determination and confirmation of anomalies. 4. Diagnostic of causes and determination of effects. 5. Consistency checking cycle. 6. Management of health information 7. User Interfaces 8. Example implementation ISHM has been defined from many perspectives. We define it as a capability that might be achieved by various approaches. We describe a specific approach that has been matured throughout many years of development, and pilot implementations. ISHM is a capability that is achieved by integrating data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) that might be distributed throughout the system elements (which inherently implies capability to manage DIaK associated with distributed sub-systems). DIaK must be available to any element of a system at the right time and in accordance with a meaningful context. ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL) is measured by how well a system performs the following functions: (1) detect anomalies, (2) diagnose causes, (3) predict future anomalies/failures, and (4) provide the user with an integrated awareness about the condition of every element in the system and guide user decisions.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Success Stories in Control: Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Control

NASA plays an important role in advancing the state of the art in flight control systems. In the case of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion (NDI) NASA supported initial implementation of the theory in an aircraft and demonstration in a space vehicle. Dr. Dale Enns of Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technology performed this work in cooperation with NASA and under NASA contract. Honeywell and Lockheed Martin were subsequently contracted by AFRL to create "Design Guidelines for Multivariable Control Theory". This foundational work directly contributed to the advancement of the technology and the credibility of the control law as a design option. As a result Honeywell collaborated with Lockheed Martin to produce a Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion controller for the X-35 and subsequently Lockheed Martin did the same for the production Lockheed Martin F-35 vehicle. The theory behind NDI is to use a systematic generalized approach to controlling a vehicle. Using general aircraft nonlinear equations of motion and onboard aerodynamic, mass properties, and engine models specific to the vehicle, a relationship between control effectors and desired aircraft motion can be formulated. Using this formulation a control combination is used that provides a predictable response to commanded motion. Control loops around this formulation shape the response as desired and provide robustness to modeling errors. Once the control law is designed it can be used on a similar class of vehicle with only an update to the vehicle specific onboard models.

Bosworth, John T.↗

From models to reality: a systematic review on simulated and measured residential heat pump energy savings

High-performance HVAC solutions are central to residential energy management. A substantial share of these are electric, reversible-cycle systems, with heat pumps representing the largest portion of current and near-term adoption. This review synthesizes peer-reviewed and grey literature on residential space heating and cooling heat pumps. The academic literature is dominated by modeling (73.8%), with limited field measurement (13.1%). Grey literature from United States serve as a supplemental resource providing measured savings. Conversions from electric-resistance heating consistently show the largest site energy reductions, while oil/propane baselines yield moderate savings, and gas baseline scenario often deliver small and region-dependent savings. This study cross-checks the grey literature measured data with simulation data filtered from the ResStock dataset. The comparison indicates a discrepancy between simulations and measured data: simulated site EUIs are typically lower than measured EUIs, but percentage energy savings fall in similar ranges, implying simulations capture directional effects while underestimating energy use. Factors associated with variability and model–measurement differences include system characterization and control representation (e.g., backup heat engagement, thermostat/setpoint strategies, commissioning/installation quality), occupant behavior, weather normalization, metering scope, and envelope characterization. This paper also outlines the proposed methodology for comparing simulation and measured data for heat pumps. It emphasizes the metrics used for comparison and units harmonization, building characteristics matching, and compact metadata are needed for simulations to match measured data. The proposed methodology is expected to improve the credibility of simulated savings as measured evidence grows.

Yu, Lili↗

Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Approach to Improved Credibility of CFD Simulations for Rocket Injector Design

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to improve the historical rocket injector design process by simulating the sensitivity of performance and injector-driven thermal environments to. the details of the injector geometry and key operational parameters. Methodical verification and validation efforts on a range of coaxial injector elements have shown the current production CFD capability must be improved in order to quantitatively impact the injector design process.. This paper documents the status of an effort to understand and compare the predictive capabilities and resource requirements of a range of CFD methodologies on a set of model problem injectors. Preliminary results from a steady Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes (RANS), an unsteady Reynolds-Average Navier Stokes (URANS) and three different Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques used to model a single element coaxial injector using gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen propellants are presented. Initial observations are made comparing instantaneous results, corresponding time-averaged and steady-state solutions in the near -injector flow field. Significant differences in the flow fields exist, as expected, and are discussed. An important preliminary result is the identification of a fundamental mixing mechanism, accounted for by URANS and LES, but missing in the steady BANS methodology. Since propellant mixing is the core injector function, this mixing process may prove to have a profound effect on the ability to more correctly simulate injector performance and resulting thermal environments. Issues important to unifying the basis for future comparison such as solution initialization, required run time and grid resolution are addressed.

Tucker, Paul K.↗

The role of nonmetallic ion substitution in perovskite LaCoO 3 for improved oxygen evolution reaction activity

Transition metal perovskite (ABO 3 ) is an emerging type of oxygen evolution reaction (OER) electrocatalyst that shows reasonably good activity and moderate stability. Although efforts have been made to improve perovskite’ OER performance by various element substitution at A/B-site, the influence of ion, particularly non-metallic ion, substitutions on the OER mechanism are rarely studied. More and more evidence has shown that the metal-center theory has failed to explain lots of OER-related phenomena. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how the cation and anion sites in perovskite determine OER performance. In this work, we used a Fe and P co-doped LaCoO 3 as a model system to explore the influence of substitution in perovskite by combining operando/ex-situ X-ray characterization and density functional theory (DFT). We observed enhanced OER catalytic activities in co-doped materials, which are attributed to the stronger transition-metal-oxygen-bonding-covalency (TMOBC). The detailed analyses by O K-edge XAS, electrochemical performance, and DFT suggest that the hybridization between O 2p and transition metal 3d e g orbitals could be a more credible descriptor of perovskite for OER, which is the combination of e g orbital theory and TMOBC theory. The finding in our work provides insights into the OER catalysis mechanism on metal oxides, which could guide new design of cost-effective oxide electrocatalysts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evolutionary Game and Simulation Research of Blockchain-Based Co-Governance of Emergency Supply Allocation

Recently, with the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, emergency supply allocation system is drawing more and more social attention. Emergency supply allocation system is an important part of emergency governance system. It reflects social organizations’ credibility, public safety, and the modernization level of social governance. However, emergency supply allocation system still has some problems, such as information asymmetry, different desires of participants, unreasonable allocation, and so on. At present, it is widely accepted that the advantage of blockchain in co-governance could be of great help in solving above problems. And in order to distinguish the effect of blockchain to the emergency supply allocation, the paper builds a tripartite evolutionary game model among the government, social organizations, and the public to analyse the impact of blockchain platform on emergency supply allocation. The simulation analysis shows the following: (1) The strategy choices of the government have a crucial impact on the evolution and stability of social organizations’ strategies. It needs a long-term process to guide social organizations practicing active allocation, and the government should accelerate to build the blockchain platform to promote this process. (2) With the help of blockchain platform, the increment of penalty intensity of the government is conductive to increasing the probabilities that social organizations practice active allocation and the government practices strict supervision. (3) Blockchain platform has a significant impact on social organizations’ choice for active allocation in many aspects, such as the positive and negative effects of social organizations, effect’s increasing multiple, and the cost of the public informing. In the end, some suggestions are presented to improve the co-governance of emergency supply allocation.

Zhao, Huawei↗

An Approach to Experimental Design for the Computer Analysis of Complex Phenomenon

The ability to make credible system assessments, predictions and design decisions related to engineered systems and other complex phenomenon is key to a successful program for many large-scale investigations in government and industry. Recently, many of these large-scale analyses have turned to computational simulation to provide much of the required information. Addressing specific goals in the computer analysis of these complex phenomenon is often accomplished through the use of performance measures that are based on system response models. The response models are constructed using computer-generated responses together with physical test results where possible. They are often based on probabilistically defined inputs and generally require estimation of a set of response modeling parameters. As a consequence, the performance measures are themselves distributed quantities reflecting these variabilities and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the values of the performance measures leads to uncertainties in predicted performance and can cloud the decisions required of the analysis. A specific goal of this research has been to develop methodology that will reduce this uncertainty in an analysis environment where limited resources and system complexity together restrict the number of simulations that can be performed. An approach has been developed that is based on evaluation of the potential information provided for each "intelligently selected" candidate set of computer runs. Each candidate is evaluated by partitioning the performance measure uncertainty into two components - one component that could be explained through the additional computational simulation runs and a second that would remain uncertain. The portion explained is estimated using a probabilistic evaluation of likely results for the additional computational analyses based on what is currently known about the system. The set of runs indicating the largest potential reduction in uncertainty is then selected and the computational simulations are performed. Examples are provided to demonstrate this approach on small scale problems. These examples give encouraging results. Directions for further research are indicated.

Rutherford, Brian↗

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗