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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2009

Compartment Venting Analyses of Ares I First Stage Systems Tunnel

Compartment venting analyses have been performed for the Ares I first stage systems tunnel using both the lumped parameter method and the three-dimensional (31)) transient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. The main objective of venting analyses is to predict the magnitudes of differential pressures across the skin so the integrity of solid walls can be evaluated and properly designed. The lumped parameter method assumes the gas pressure and temperature inside the systems tunnel are spatially uniform, which is questionable since the tunnel is about 1,700 in. long and 4 in. wide. Therefore, 31) transient CFD simulations using the commercial CFD code FLUENT are performed in order to examine the gas pressure and temperature variations inside the tunnel. It was found that the uniform pressure and temperature assumptions inside the systems tunnel are valid during ascent. During reentry, the uniform pressure assumption is also reasonable but the uniform temperature assumption is not valid. Predicted pressure and temperature inside the systems tunnel using CFD are also compared with those from the lumped parameter method using the NASA code CHCHVENT. In general, the average pressure and temperature inside the systems tunnel from CFD are between the burst and crush results from CHCHVENT during both ascent and reentry. The skin differential pressure and pressure inside the systems tunnel relative to freestream pressure from CHCHVENT as well as velocity vectors and streamlines are also discussed in detail.

Wang, Qunzhen↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comments on "Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System"

Considerable attention has been given to the potential negative impacts of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in recent years. Researchers recently raised questions about the negative impacts of Dunion and Velden and other studies in terms of storms that reached at least tropical storm strength and suggested that the SAL was an intrinsic part of the tropical cyclone environment for both storms that weaken after formation and those that intensify. Braun also suggested that several incorrect assumptions underlie many of the studies on the negative impacts of the SAL, including assumptions that most low-to-midlevel dry tropical air is SAL air, that the SAL is dry throughout its depth, and that the proximity of the SAL to storms struggling to intensify implies some role in that struggle. The recent paper by Reale et al.(RL1) is an example of the problems inherent in some of these assumptions. In their paper, RL1 analyze a simulation from the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) global model and describe an extensive tongue of warm, dry air that stretches southward from at least 30 deg N (the northern limit of their plots) and wraps into a low pressure system during the period 26-29 August 2006, suppressing convection and possibly development of the African easterly wave associated with that low pressure system. They attributed the warm, dry tongue to the SAL (i.e., heating of the air mass during passage over the Sahara and radiative warming of the dust layer). Whether it was their intention, the implication is that this entire feature is due solely to the SAL and not to other possible sources of dry air or warmth. In addition, they suggested that a cool tongue of air in the boundary layer located directly beneath the elevated warm, dry tongue (forming a thermal dipole) was possibly the result of reduced solar radiation caused by an overlying dust layer. They stated that "the cool anomaly in the lower levels does not have any plausible explanation relying only on transport." In this comment, evidence from satellite and global meteorological analyses is presented that casts considerable doubt upon RL1 s interpretation of the GEOS-5 forecasts and their conclusion that the results implied a negative role of the SAL. We show that the major portion of the warm, dry air aloft was located in a nearly dust-free slot between two Saharan dust outbreaks, had a significant source from the midlatitudes (>30 N), and was likely driven by strong subsidence warming and drying. In addition, when wind fields are examined in a reference frame moving with the wave, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global meteorological analyses suggest that the cool tongue in the boundary layer can be readily explained by transport of cooler air from higher latitudes. At the very least, it offers a plausible alternative explanation for the cool tongue that does not rely on radiative impacts of the dust.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Ice Particle Size Vertical Inhomogeneity on the Passive Remote Sensing of Ice Clouds

The solar reflectance bi-spectral (SRBS) and infrared split-window (IRSpW) methods are two of the most popular techniques for passive ice cloud property retrievals from multispectral imagers. Ice clouds are usually assumed to be vertically homogeneous in global operational algorithms based on these methods, although significant vertical variations of ice particle size are typically observed in ice clouds. In this Study we investigate uncertainties in retrieved optical thickness, effective particle size, and ice water path introduced by a homogeneous cloud assumption in both the SRBS and IRSpW methods, and focus on whether the assumption can lead to significant discrepancies between the two methods. The study simulates the upwelling spectral radiance associated with vertically structured clouds and passes the results through representative SRBS and IRSpW retrieval algorithms. Cloud optical thickness is limited to values for which IRSpW retrievals are possible (optical thickness less than about 7). When the ice cloud is optically thin and yet has a significant ice particle size vertical variation, it is found that both methods tend to underestimate the effective radius and ice water path. The reason for the underestimation is the nonlinear dependence of ice particle scattering properties (extinction and single scattering albedo) on the effective radius. Because the nonlinearity effect is stronger in the IRSpW than the SRBS method, the IRSpW-based IWP tends to be smaller than the SRBS counterpart. When the ice cloud is moderately optically thick, the IRSpW method is relatively insensitive to cloud vertical structure and effective radius retrieval is weighted toward smaller ice particle size, while the weighting function makes the SRBS method more sensitive to the ice particle size in the upper portion of the cloud. As a result, when ice particle size increases monotonically toward cloud base, the two methods are in qualitative agreement; in the event that ice particle size decreases toward cloud base, the effective radius and ice water path retrievals based on the SRBS method are substantially larger than those from the IRSpW. The main findings of this Study Suggest that the homogenous cloud assumption can affect the SRBS and IRSpW methods to different extents and, consequently, can lead to significantly different retrievals. Therefore caution should be taken when comparing and combining the ice cloud property retrievals from these two methods.

Zhang, Zhibo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Developing Standards to Qualify a Fine Water Mist Fire Extinguisher for Human Spaceflight

NASA is developing a Fine Water Mist Portable Fire Extinguisher for use on the International Space Station. The International Space Station presently uses two different types of fire extinguishers: a water foam extinguisher in the Russian Segment, and a carbon dioxide extinguisher in the US Segment and Columbus and Kibo pressurized elements. Changes in emergency breathing equipment make Fine Water Mist operationally preferable. Supplied oxygen breathing systems allow for safe discharge of a carbon dioxide fire extinguisher, without concerns of the crew inhaling unsafe levels of carbon dioxide. But the Portable Breathing Apparatus offers no more than 15 minutes of capability, and continued use of hose based supplied oxygen systems increases the oxygen content in a fire situation. NASA has developed a filtering respirator cartridge for use in a fire environment. It is qualified to provide up to 90 minutes of capability, and because it is a filtering respirator it does not add oxygen to the environment. The fire response respirator cartridge does not filter carbon dioxide, so a crew member discharging a CO2 fire extinguisher while wearing this filtering respirator would be at risk of inhaling unsafe levels of CO2. Fine Water Mist extinguishes a fire without creating a large volume of air with reduced oxygen and elevated CO2. Compared to the carbon dioxide based Portable Fire Extinguisher, the flight qualification of Fine Water Mist systems requires special care. Qualification of the CO2 based Portable Fire Extinguisher began with the assumption that any fire on ISS would be extinguished if the air in the fire environment reached a critical concentration of CO2. Qualification of a CO2 based system requires the developers to make assertions and assumptions about vehicle geometry and the ability of the extinguisher to deliver CO2 in different geometric configurations, but the developers did not need to make assertions or assumptions about the size of the fire, the temperature, or the heat generation rate. Fine Water Mist systems extinguish a fire predominantly by removing heat -- so qualification standards must evaluate geometry, but also temperature, heat transfer, and heat generation rate. This paper outlines and describes the methods used to develop standards used to qualify Fine Water Mist systems for a human spaceflight environment.

Graf, John↗
NASA NTRS2011

Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2011

Heliocentric Distance of Coronal Mass Ejections at the Time of Energetic Particle Release: Revisiting the Ground Level Enhancement Events of Solar Cycle 23

Using the kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), onset time of soft X-ray flares, and the finite size of the pre-eruption CME structure, we derive the heliocentric distan~e at which the energetic particles during the ground level enhancement (GLE) events of Solar Cycle 23. We find that the GLE particles are released when the CMEs reach an average heliocentric distance of approx.3.25 solar radii (Rs). From this we infer that the shocks accelerating the particles are located at similar heights. Type II radio burst observations indicate that the CMEs are at much lower distances (average approx.1.4 Rs) when the CME-driven shock first forms. The shock seems to travel approx.1.8 Rs over a period of approox.30 min on the average before releasing the GLE particles. In deriving these results, we made three assumptions that have observational support: (i) the CME lift off occurs from an initial distance of about 1.25 Rs; (ii) the flare onset and CME onset are one and the same because these are two different manifestations of the same eruption; and (iii) the CME has positive acceleration from the onset to the first appearance in the coronagraphic field of view (2.5 to 6 Rs). Observations of coronal cavities in eclipse pictures and in coronagraphic images justify the assumption (i). The close relationship between the flare reconnection magnetic flux and the azimuthal flux of interplanetary magnetic clouds justify assumption (ii) consistent with the standard model (CSHKP) of solar eruption. Coronagraphic observations made close to the solar surface indicate a large positive acceleration of CMEs to a heliocentric distance of approx.3 Rs before they start slowing down due to the drag force. The inferred acceleration (approx.1.5 km/s/s) is consistent with reported values in the literature.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Shortwave Infrared Atmospheric Correction for Ocean Color Remote Sensing of Chesapeake Bay

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Aqua platform (MODIS-Aqua) provides a viable data stream for operational water quality monitoring of Chesapeake Bay. Marine geophysical products from MODIS-Aqua depend on the efficacy of the atmospheric correction process, which can be problematic in coastal environments. The operational atmospheric correction algorithm for MODIS-Aqua requires an assumption of negligible near-infrared water-leaving radiance, nL(sub w)(NIR). This assumption progressively degrades with increasing turbidity and, as such, methods exist to account for non-negligible nL(sub w)(NIR) within the atmospheric correction process or to use alternate radiometric bands where the assumption is satisfied, such as those positioned within shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. We evaluated a decade-long time-series of nL(sub w)(lambda) from MODIS-Aqua in Chesapeake Bay derived using NIR and SWIR bands for atmospheric correction. Low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) for the SWIR bands of MODIS-Aqua added noise errors to the derived radiances, which produced broad, flat frequency distributions of nL(sub w)(lambda) relative to those produced using the NIR bands. The SWIR approach produced an increased number of negative nL(sub w)(lambda) and decreased sample size relative to the NIR approach. Revised vicarious calibration and regional tuning of the scheme to switch between the NIR and SWIR approaches may improve retrievals in Chesapeake Bay, however, poor SNR values for the MODIS-Aqua SWIR bands remain the primary deficiency of the SWIR-based atmospheric correction approach.

Werdell, P. Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assessment of Models of Chemically Reacting Granular Flows

A report presents an assessment of a general mathematical model of dense, chemically reacting granular flows like those in fluidized beds used to pyrolize biomass. The model incorporates submodels that have been described in several NASA Tech Briefs articles, including "Generalized Mathematical Model of Pyrolysis of Biomass" (NPO-20068) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 22, No. 2 (February 1998), page 60; "Model of Pyrolysis of Biomass in a Fluidized-Bed Reactor" (NPO-20708), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 25, No. 6 (June 2001), page 59; and "Model of Fluidized Bed Containing Reacting Solids and Gases" (NPO- 30163), which appears elsewhere in this issue. The model was used to perform computational simulations in a test case of pyrolysis in a reactor containing sand and biomass (i.e., plant material) particles through which passes a flow of hot nitrogen. The boundary conditions and other parameters were selected for the test case to enable assessment of the validity of some assumptions incorporated into submodels of granular stresses, granular thermal conductivity, and heating of particles. The results of the simulation are interpreted as partly affirming the assumptions in some respects and indicating the need for refinements of the assumptions and the affected submodels in other respects.

Bellan, Josette↗
NASA NTRS2012

Color Choice is Everything - Impacts Color makes to the Lighting Environment

When contracts are let out to design multiple systems in a vehicle, it is a challenge to maintain integration between system leads. Designers on niche systems, like lighting and control panel design, often get caught up in the challenge of designing the light source or visual interface and fail to include time in their schedule to work with system architects on how their lighting system will be integrated. Additionally, behavioral scientists, industrial designers, and materials engineers get caught up with the materials and look of the system, but often fail to consider how the selection of their materials could affect the certification or performance of electronic devices like lighting systems. Additionally, computer modeling of the system architecture often assumes a perfect environment without the clutter of actual human use (dirt, stowage, crowding). As a result, lighting systems, and backlit displays run the risk of being overdesigned or under designed. Engineers making the assumption that because they have no input or there is no requirement on work surface reflectance, make the assumption that they can t count on good material choices and thus may install more lighting than is necessary. While having more lights may seem better, for a vehicle that is trying to conserve power, more lights may not be a good option. On the other hand, designers who made the opposite assumption and designed a lighting system that only produced just enough light, often wind up with a system that did conserve power, but didn t produce enough light. These situations are exasperated when the system starts to be used and the models are not perfect anymore. The lack of coordination and iterative design not only can impact lighting levels within an environment, but also can affect color perception. This is because, if materials do not represent a gradation of white or black, the material unevenly absorbs and reflects light at different wavelengths of the visual spectrum. The lighting designer may have built a light that meets light spectra requirements, but the eventual light reaching the human user may not be the spectra of light architects intended, if materials near the light source change the spectrum just by how much color is absorbed or reflected. With the recent findings concerning Circadian rhythm, where the spectra of light is extremely important for addressing crew sleep and wake cycles, system architects should pay considerable attention on the impact material choices have in changing the light spectrum in an environment. This presentation will show examples of how material choices impact the resulting illuminance, color spectrum, and power usage of an illuminated space. Its goal is to encourage system designers and planners to use more care in development of requirements and the verification of systems intended for the human visual interface.

Clark, Toni A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. Precipitation impacts latent heating profiles locally while global circulation patterns distribute precipitation and energy from the equator to the poles. For the hydrological cycle, falling snow is a primary contributor in northern latitudes during the winter seasons. Falling snow is the source of snow pack accumulations that provide fresh water resources for many communities in the world. Furthermore, falling snow impacts society by causing transportation disruptions during severe snow events. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle, both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. The challenges of estimating falling snow from space still exist though progress is being made. These challenges include weak falling snow signatures with respect to background (surface, water vapor) signatures for passive sensors over land surfaces, unknowns about the spherical and non-spherical shapes of the snowflakes, their particle size distributions (PSDs) and how the assumptions about the unknowns impact observed brightness temperatures or radar reflectivities, differences in near surface snowfall and total column snow amounts, and limited ground truth to validate against. While these challenges remain, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (approx 2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 0.25 g / cubic m and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Sensitivity analyses were performed to better ascertain the relationships between multifrequency microwave and millimeter-wave sensor observations and the falling snow/underlying field of view. In addition, thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types were studied. Results will be presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗
NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Assessment of Variable Speed Power Turbine Technology on Civil Tiltrotor Size and Performance

A Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR) conceptual design was developed as part of the NASA Heavy Lift Rotorcraft Systems Investigation in order to establish a consistent basis for evaluating the benefits of advanced technology for large tiltrotors. The concept has since evolved into the second-generation LCTR2, designed to carry 90 passengers for 1,000 nm at 300 knots, with vertical takeoff and landing capability. This paper performs a preliminary assessment of variable-speed power turbine technology on LCTR2 sizing, while maintaining the same, advanced technology engine core. Six concepts were studied; an advanced, single-speed engine with a conventional power turbine layout (Advanced Conventional Engine, or ACE) using a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox. There were five variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) engine concepts, comprising a matrix of either three or four turbine stages, and fixed or variable guide vanes; plus a minimum weight, twostage, fixed-geometry VSPT. The ACE is the lightest engine, but requires a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox to maximize its fuel efficiency, whereas the VSPT concepts use a lighter, fixed-ratio gearbox. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) design code was used to study the trades between rotor and engine efficiency and weight. Rotor performance was determined by Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics (CAMRAD II), and engine performance was estimated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Design trades for the ACE vs. VSPT are presented in terms of vehicle gross and empty weight, propulsion system weight and mission fuel burn for the civil mission. Because of its strong effect on gearbox weight and on both rotor and engine efficiency, rotor speed was chosen as the reference design variable for comparing design trades. Major study assumptions are presented and discussed. Impressive engine power-to-weight and fuel efficiency reduced vehicle sensitivity to propulsion system choice. The 10% weight penalty for multi-speed gearbox was more significant than most engine technology weight penalties to the vehicle design because drive system weight is more than two times engine weight. Based on study assumptions, fixed-geometry VSPT concept options performed better than their variable-geometry counterparts. Optimum design gross weights varied 1% or less and empty weights less than 2% among the concepts studied, while optimum fuel burns varied up to 5%. The outcome for some optimum configurations was so unexpected as to recommend a deeper look at the underlying technology assumptions.

Snyder, Christopher A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Radiation Engineering Analysis of Shielding Materials to Assess Their Ability to Protect Astronauts in Deep Space From Energetic Particle Radiation

An analysis is performed on four typical materials (aluminum, liquid hydrogen, polyethylene, and water) to assess their impact on the length of time an astronaut can stay in deep space and not exceed a design basis radiation exposure of 150 mSv. A large number of heavy lift launches of pure shielding mass are needed to enable long duration, deep space missions to keep astronauts at or below the exposure value with shielding provided by the vehicle. Therefore, vehicle mass using the assumptions in the paper cannot be the sole shielding mechanism for long duration, deep space missions. As an example, to enable the Mars Design Reference Mission 5.0 with a 400 day transit to and from Mars, not including the 500 day stay on the surface, a minimum of 24 heavy lift launches of polyethylene at 89,375 lbm (40.54 tonnes) each are needed for the 1977 galactic cosmic ray environment. With the assumptions used in this paper, a single heavy lift launch of water or polyethylene can protect astronauts for a 130 day mission before exceeding the exposure value. Liquid hydrogen can only protect the astronauts for 160 days. Even a single launch of pure shielding material cannot protect an astronaut in deep space for more than 180 days using the assumptions adopted in the analysis. It is shown that liquid hydrogen is not the best shielding material for the same mass as polyethylene for missions that last longer than 225 days.

Singleterry, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

Risk↗
NASA NTRS2013

Earth Observation from Space - The Issue of Environmental Sustainability

Remote sensing scientists work under assumptions that should not be taken for granted and should, therefore, be challenged. These assumptions include the following: 1. Space, especially Low Earth Orbit (LEO), will always be available to governmental and commercial space entities that launch Earth remote sensing missions. 2. Space launches are benign with respect to environmental impacts. 3. Minimization of Type 1 error, which provides increased confidence in the experimental outcome, is the best way to assess the significance of environmental change. 4. Large-area remote sensing investigations, i.e. national, continental, global studies, are best done from space. 5. National space missions should trump international, cooperative space missions to ensure national control and distribution of the data products. At best, all of these points are arguable, and in some cases, they're wrong. Development of observational space systems that are compatible with sustainability principles should be a primary concern when Earth remote sensing space systems are envisioned, designed, and launched. The discussion is based on the hypothesis that reducing the environmental impacts of thedata acquisition step,which is at the very beginning of the information streamleading to decision and action, will enhance coherence in the information streamand strengthen the capacity of measurement processes to meet their stated functional goal, i.e. sustainable management of Earth resources. We suggest that unconventional points of view should be adopted and when appropriate, remedial measures considered that could help to reduce the environmental footprint of space remote sensing and of Earth observation and monitoring systems in general. This article discusses these five assumptions inthe contextof sustainablemanagementof Earth's resources. Takingeachassumptioninturn,we find the following: (1) Space debris may limit access to Low Earth Orbit over the next decades. (2) Relatively speaking, given that they're rare event, space launches may be benign, but study is merited on upper stratospheric and exospheric layers given the chemical activity associated with rocket combustion by-products. (3) Minimization of Type II error should be considered in situations where minimization of Type I error greatly hampers or precludes our ability to correct the environmental condition being studied. (4) In certain situations, airborne collects may be less expensive and more environmentally benign, and comparative studies should be done to determine which path is wisest. (5) International cooperation and data sharing will reduce instrument and launch costs and mission redundancy. Given fiscal concerns of most of the major space agencies e e.g. NASA, ESA, CNES e it seems prudent to combine resources.

Earth observation systems↗