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NASA NTRS2010

The Habitat Demonstration Unit Project Overview

This paper will describe an overview of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) led multi-center Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) Project. The HDU project is a "technology-pull" project that integrates technologies and innovations from numerous NASA centers. This project will be used to investigate and validate surface architectures, operations concepts, and requirements definition of various habitation concepts. The first habitation configuration this project will build and test is the Pressurized Excursion Module (PEM). This habitat configuration - the PEM - is based on the Constellation Architecture Scenario 12.1 concept of a vertically oriented habitat module. The HDU project will be tested as part of the 2010 Desert Research and Technologies Simulations (D-RATS) test objectives. The purpose of this project is to develop, integrate, test, and evaluate a habitat configuration in the context of the mission architectures and surface operation concepts. A multi-center approach will be leveraged to build, integrate, and test the PEM through a shared collaborative effort of multiple NASA centers. The HDU project is part of the strategic plan from the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Directorate Integration Office (DIO) and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office (LSSPO) to test surface elements in a surface analog environment. The 2010 analog field test will include two Lunar Electric Rovers (LER) and the PEM among other surface demonstration elements. This paper will describe the overall objectives, its various habitat configurations, strategic plan, and technology integration as it pertains to the 2010 and 2011 field analog tests. To accomplish the development of the PEM from conception in June 2009 to rollout for operations in July 2010, the HDU project team is using a set of design standards to define the interfaces between the various systems of PEM and to the payloads, such as the Geology Lab, that those systems will support. Scheduled activities such as early fit-checks and the utilization of a habitat avionics test bed prior to equipment installation into PEM are planned to facilitate the integration process.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Project Interface Requirements Process Including Shuttle Lessons Learned

Most failures occur at interfaces between organizations and hardware. Processing interface requirements at the start of a project life cycle will reduce the likelihood of costly interface changes/failures later. This can be done by adding Interface Control Documents (ICDs) to the Project top level drawing tree, providing technical direction to the Projects for interface requirements, and by funding the interface requirements function directly from the Project Manager's office. The interface requirements function within the Project Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Office would work in-line with the project element design engineers early in the life cycle to enhance communications and negotiate technical issues between the elements. This function would work as the technical arm of the Project Manager to help ensure that the Project cost, schedule, and risk objectives can be met during the Life Cycle. Some ICD Lessons Learned during the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Life Cycle will include the use of hardware interface photos in the ICD, progressive life cycle design certification by analysis, test, & operations experience, assigning interface design engineers to Element Interface (EI) and Project technical panels, and linking interface design drawings with project build drawings

Bauch, Garland T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

O'Brien, Hollie↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA's UAS NAS Access Project

The vision of the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project is "A global transportation system which allows routine access for all classes of UAS." The goal of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project is to "contribute capabilities that reduce technical barriers related to the safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS." This goal will be accomplished through a two-phased approach based on development of system-level integration of key concepts, technologies and/or procedures, and demonstrations of integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. Phase 1 will take place the first two years of the Project and Phase 2 will take place the following three years. The Phase 1 and 2 technical objectives are: Phase 1: Developing a gap analysis between current state of the art and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) UAS Concept of Operations . Validating the key technical areas identified by this Project . Conducting initial modeling, simulation, and flight testing activities . Completing Sub-project Phase 1 deliverables (spectrum requirements, comparative analysis of certification methodologies, etc.) and continue Phase 2 preparation (infrastructure, tools, etc.) Phase 2: Providing regulators with a methodology for developing airworthiness requirements for UAS, and data to support development of certifications standards and regulatory guidance . Providing systems-level, integrated testing of concepts and/or capabilities that address barriers to routine access to the NAS. Through simulation and flight testing, address issues including separation assurance, communications requirements, and human systems integration in operationally relevant environments. The UAS in the NAS Project will demonstrate solutions in specific technology areas, which will address operational/safety issues related to UAS access to the NAS. Since the resource allocation for this Project is limited ($150M over the five years), the focus is on reducing the technical barriers where NASA has unique capabilities. As a result, technical areas, such as Sense and Avoid (SAA) and beyond line of sight command and control will not be addressed. While these are critical barriers to UAS access, currently, there is a great deal of global effort being exercised to address these challenge areas. Instead, specific technology development in areas where there is certainty that NASA can advance the research to high technology readiness levels will be the Project's focus. Specific sub-projects include Separation Assurance, Human Systems Integration, Communications, Certification, and Integrated Test and Evaluation. Each sub-project will transfer technologies to relevant key stakeholders and decision makers through research transition teams, technology forums, or through other analogous means.

Johnson, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reference Guide for Project-Control Account Managers

The purpose of this guide is intended to be a quick reference for a Project-Control Account Manager (P-CAM) or technical manager empowered with a project’s cost, schedule, and technical responsibilities of a control account(s) when Earned Value Management (EVM) is required. The overall objective is to support the P-CAM in performing their responsibilities as they relate to EVM. In addition, the reference guide describes at a summary level how the scope, schedule, and budget of a project integrate for optimal planning and control of prime contracts and in-house projects. Because NASA implements a diverse and unique portfolio of projects, those projects have traditionally created project-specific systems to manage planning and performance analysis. However, establishment and implementation of a project management system that is common across all centers and mission directorates will facilitate the adoption of best business practices. In addition, the application of timely and predictive analysis, as well as, providing all stakeholders with greater insight into project performance will enhance opportunities for project success. For more detailed information, refer to the NASA EVM System Description; Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) Handbook; EVM Implementation Handbook; Schedule Management Handbook; Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Handbook; and other agency/industry documentation. In addition, you may contact your local center’s EVM Focal Points. All this information and more can be found at and/or the NASA Engineering Network located at https://nen.nasa.gov/web/pm.

Christopher Lewis Sadler↗
DOE OSTI2015

Project acceleration through the application of innovation on the pile fuel storage pond at Sellafield - 15060

The Pile Fuel Storage Pond (PFSP) at Sellafield was built between 1948 and 1950 to receive, store and de-can fuel and isotopes from the Windscale Piles. Since closure of the Piles in 1957, the facility has been used to store materials from the UK nuclear programme. The pond has built up a large inventory of miscellaneous items and pond sludge, which combine to create a challenging nuclear clean up job. To enable clean up, the operator required a capability to encapsulate the pond sludge for long term storage, the operator initiated a project. Applying conventional project delivery processes resulted in an unacceptable cost and schedule for provision of this capability. To address this issue, the project to deliver the plant was restarted with a study to look at the selection of process routing for the sludge. In the decision making processes for this study increased weighting was given to innovative re-use of existing facilities and speed of deployment. Innovation was also applied to the study process to enable early option selection where this was clearly of benefit. This focus on innovation produced the first significant improvement for the project with the scheme selected offering a 30% reduction in baseline cost and schedule. The focus on schedule acceleration was carried through into the early design phases of the new project. In the concept stage process simplification was achieved through functional analysis of the plant combined with a drive to utilise technology and learning from other industries. This resulted in a plant concept which could be delivered more quickly than the baseline schedule with a high level of confidence. Once the main benefits associated with innovation of the plant concept had been achieved focus was switched to how the project was to be delivered. The project looked at where delivery in the nuclear environment tended to be complex and time consuming. Focusing on these areas and learning from other industries led to significant innovation in delivery processes, with particular success in the rigorous application of value transition point analysis and minimisation of onsite works. The combination of innovative design and delivery processes led to a further reduction in the project baseline cost and schedule. Application of engineering innovation, focused on engineering simplification and challenge of the engineering norms, reduced the cost of the project by English Pound 50 m (65%) and reduced the schedule for delivery by over 3 years. The project has been recognised as an exemplar of how to apply the 'decommissioning mind-set', which is the cultural change being targeted by Sellafield Ltd to deliver the decommissioning of its high hazard facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

The D and D of Nuclear Facilities: a Systemic Approach for Project Organization and Monitoring - 18099

The Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) of Licensed Nuclear facilities takes place under circumstances which make it a very complex field. On the one hand, more and more facilities of widely varying types are concerned, and many D and D projects are currently running or planned. A nuclear facility's life cycle is often very long and the building may be modified or impacted by incidents during its operation. These changes need to be known and taken into account for the D and D plans, in order to ensure safety at all times. In addition, the numerous stakeholders involved in a project express needs which impose many requirements. These encompass various points of view, and data from different detail levels must be managed to satisfactorily meet them. On the other hand, legacy data (including records, plans etc.) is a recurring issue for D and D projects. The quality and availability of relevant data regarding the different phases of the nuclear facility lifetime may be insufficient, for instance due to the lack of traceability practices in the past. The uncertainty level is not always specified and explained, old documents can be damaged and are not necessarily digitized, etc. It is therefore particularly important to define the relevant type of raw data to be collected and traced for D and D projects as early as possible. In this context, CEA (Commissariat a l'energie Atomique et aux energies Alternatives) has been analyzing past D and D projects for many years. The goal is to facilitate reproducibility by generalizing best practices and promoting efficient organizational rules and technical solutions. A method is currently being studied to help project managers to prepare specifications for future D and D operations and improve both the efficiency and the relevance of the decommissioning strategy throughout each project, depending on the expected quality of its end-state. This method first consists in formalizing and specifying the entire set of requirements to be taken into consideration, e.g. technical, operational, logistical, regulatory, financial, organizational, safety and security, human, ethical, or, naturally, environmental aspects. Second, based on these requirements, it will enable the project team to structure, check, and then to demonstrate the coherence and feasibility of the project from both the technological and organizational points of view. Lastly, the method will enable the evaluation of the various possible solutions for the management of dismantling products, for instance, regarding the waste outlets: direct disposal or interim storage. To conclude, the method should permit a constant re-evaluation of the D and D strategy depending on the possible evolution of the stakeholders' requirements, and thus it should optimize the monitoring of D and D projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

How Successful Site Preparation Work at a Large, Commercial, Hazardous and Toxic Waste Site Can Benefit DOE Cleanup Projects - 18111

Jacobs recently completed site preparation work supporting the private commercial development of a world-scale petrochemical complex (an 'ethylene cracker' to produce the primary building block for many forms of plastic) in Monaca, Pennsylvania - the first major U.S. project of its kind outside the Gulf Coast region in 20 years and one of the largest (multi-billion dollar) construction projects in the eastern U.S. Prior to beginning construction on the petrochemical complex, the site's previous large, industrial zinc smelter operations had to be decommissioned and the facilities had to be removed. During the previous 80 years, the smelting operations at the site were used to produce zinc, lead, mercury, and sulfuric acid (a by-product of smelting). The smelting operations left landfills and industrial soil over a large area that had to be removed or closed under regulatory review to allow development across the 81,000 m{sup 2} (200-acre) industrial site located near a major river and local populations. In order to meet Pennsylvania's site-specific Land Recycling Program (commonly referred to as 'Act 2') legislative requirements, the direct contact pathway for landfill soil and slag was removed or mitigated. The site preparation work, or 'Early Works', started in January 2015. As the selected Early Works overall Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) contractor, Jacobs performed the front end engineering and design. Subsequently, Jacobs had overall responsibility for procurement, construction management, health and safety, quality, security, and environmental services for the entire site and all contractors. The Early Works project included eight separate work scope packages: 1) Site Preparation, 2) Site Development, 3) Marine Works, 4) Rail Works, 5) Road Works and Offsite Utilities, 6) Site Security, 7) Construction Facilities, and 8) High Voltage Line Relocation. The Early Works scope was successfully completed in 2017. The challenges faced by this privately funded commercial project have much in common with large DOE and government construction projects. This paper explores lessons learned from the project and compares how project challenges were addressed on this private commercial project with those anticipated at large DOE/government construction and remediation sites, particularly those in the areas of Safety, Logistics, Infrastructure, and Stakeholder Involvement. The identification of best practices demonstrated on this successful project are shared for the purpose of bringing outside, commercial perspectives to ongoing or planned DOE/government construction projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

International Training to Promote Successful Environmental Remediation Projects - 18636

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supports the efforts of its Member States to manage their nuclear and radiological liabilities, including radioactive waste management, decommissioning of facilities, and remediation of contaminated sites. As part of a project addressing Constraints in Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation (the CIDER Project), the IAEA is developing initiatives to further support capacity development specifically to promote implementation of safe, appropriate, and cost-effective environmental remediation (ER) projects. The IAEA sponsors numerous initiatives to provide its Member States training on important topics related to ER. It has become clear in recent years, however, that the existing training should be augmented with more in-depth training to provide for the development of the critical expertise needed to address significant ER challenges. ER projects typically are very complex, requiring the integration of numerous scientific and engineering disciplines, along with effective project planning and management. There are many examples of ER projects where considerable work has been completed, qualified technical staff are available, and adequate funding has been obtained, yet actual progress towards a final solution has been limited. In such cases, it appears that a key barrier is the lack of capacity to develop strategies, make fully informed decisions, plan for and manage activities, and implement successful ER actions. In light of the above, the IAEA has placed a priority on capacity development across the broad spectrum of ER project implementation. Efforts are underway to develop a new training program to develop capacity at the institutional and individual levels to equip course graduates to effectively integrate all areas of expertise in the planning and execution of ER projects. The target audience includes decision-makers; project managers, planners, and implementers; and academics. The core capabilities to be developed via this program include knowledge and skills related to: (1) radiation issues and radionuclide behavior; (2) health and safety protection principles and requirements; (3) identification, evaluation, and selection of ER technologies and approaches; (4) ongoing, constructive dialogue with stakeholders; (5) project planning, management, and communication; (6) cost estimation and funding development; and (7) implementation of appropriate site monitoring activities. The IAEA is collaborating with multiple organizations to develop and implement this training program, to leverage existing training programs and materials, and to coordinate on the development of sustainable training solutions. This paper will present the status of this initiative and work accomplished thus far. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-303-09: Rapid Projection Computations for On-Board Digital Tomosynthesis in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To facilitate fast and accurate iterative volumetric image reconstruction from limited-angle on-board projections. Methods: Intrafraction motion hinders the clinical applicability of modern radiotherapy techniques, such as lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The LIVE system may impact clinical practice by recovering volumetric information via Digital Tomosynthesis (DTS), thus entailing low time and radiation dose for image acquisition during treatment. The DTS is estimated as a deformation of prior CT via iterative registration with on-board images; this shifts the challenge to the computational domain, owing largely to repeated projection computations across iterations. We address this issue by composing efficient digital projection operators from their constituent parts. This allows us to separate the static (projection geometry) and dynamic (volume/image data) parts of projection operations by means of pre-computations, enabling fast on-board processing, while also relaxing constraints on underlying numerical models (e.g. regridding interpolation kernels). Further decoupling the projectors into simpler ones ensures the incurred memory overhead remains low, within the capacity of a single GPU. These operators depend only on the treatment plan and may be reused across iterations and patients. The dynamic processing load is kept to a minimum and maps well to the GPU computational model. Results: We have integrated efficient, pre-computable modules for volumetric ray-casting and FDK-based back-projection with the LIVE processing pipeline. Our results show a 60x acceleration of the DTS computations, compared to the previous version, using a single GPU; presently, reconstruction is attained within a couple of minutes. The present implementation allows for significant flexibility in terms of the numerical and operational projection model; we are investigating the benefit of further optimizations and accurate digital projection sub-kernels. Conclusion: Composable projection operators constitute a versatile research tool which can greatly accelerate iterative registration algorithms and may be conducive to the clinical applicability of LIVE. National Institutes of Health Grant No. R01-CA184173; GPU donation by NVIDIA Corporation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating impacts of development and conservation projects using sustainability indicators: Opportunities and challenges

There has been an increased interest in using sustainability indicators for evaluating the impacts of development and conservation projects. Past and recent experiences have shown that sustainability indicators can be powerful tools for measuring the outcomes of various interventions, when used appropriately and adequately. Currently, there is a range of methods for applying sustainability indicators for project impact evaluation at the environment–development interface. At the same time, a number of challenges persist which have implication for impact evaluation processes especially in developing countries. We highlight some key and recurrent challenges, using three cases from Kenya, Indonesia and Brazil. In this study, we have conducted a comparative analysis across multiple projects from the three countries, which aimed to conserve biodiversity and improve livelihoods. The assessments of these projects were designed to evaluate their positive, negative, short-term, long term, direct and indirect impacts. We have identified a set of commonly used sustainability indicators to evaluate the projects and have discussed opportunities and challenges associated with their application. Our analysis shows that impact evaluation processes present good opportunities for applying sustainability indicators. On the other hand, we find that project proponents (e.g. managers, evaluators, donors/funders) face challenges with establishing full impacts of interventions and that these are rooted in monitoring and evaluation processes, lack of evidence-based impacts, difficulties of measuring certain outcomes and concerns over scale of a range of impacts. We outline key lessons learnt from the multiple cases and propose ways to overcome common problems. Results from our analysis demonstrate practical experiences of applying sustainability indicators in developing countries context where there are different prevailing socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. The knowledge derived from this study may therefore be useful to a wider range of audience who are concerned with sustainable integration of development and environmental conservation. - Highlights: • Sustainability indicators are increasingly used for evaluating project impacts. • Lessons learnt are based on case studies from Africa, Asia and South America. • Similar challenges when assessing impacts of development and conservation projects • Need for pragmatic solutions to overcome challenges when assessing project impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Land take and the effectiveness of project screening in Environmental Impact Assessment: Findings from an empirical study

Land take is emerging as a global environmental concern, and is particularly critical in intensively developed and land-scarce regions. This paper seeks to understand the effectiveness of the screening stage of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in addressing land take. Screening is the stage where a decision is made as to whether an EIA is required for a project. In many jurisdictions, screening results in three pathways: full EIA directly, preliminary EIA only, or preliminary EIA followed by full EIA. We compared the land take of 217 projects triggering the different pathways in a study region in Italy over a 15-year time interval. Land take was quantified by overlaying the footprint of the projects with a land cover map. The results show that while more attention was given to projects with larger land take impacts overall, the cumulative land take from smaller projects not triggering full EIA was considerable (40% of overall land take). The case-by-case examination conducted through the preliminary EIA was found to work better for some project types (ski areas and small urban development), than for others (quarries). Our findings lead us to advocate improvements in current screening procedures to ensure that the land take impacts are quantified and made explicit in preliminary EIA reports. Our evidence-based approach to determining land take in EIA provides a compelling basis for understanding ways to improve EIA policies, guidance and practice. - Highlights: •We quantified the land take of 217 projects triggering different EIA screening pathways. •Projects that “fly under the radar” of full EIA caused 40% of the overall land take. •The case-by-case examination works better for some project types than others. •We recommend improvements in screening procedures to ensure that land take impacts are quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗