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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗
NASA NTRS2024

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗
NASA NTRS2024

Low-Cost Sensor Performance Intercomparison, Correction Factor Development, and 2+ Years of Ambient PM2.5 Monitoring in Accra, Ghana

Particulate matter air pollution is a leading cause of global mortality, particularly in Asia and Africa. Addressing the high and wide-ranging air pollution levels requires ambient monitoring, but many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain scarcely monitored. To address these data gaps, recent studies have utilized low-cost sensors. These sensors have varied performance, and little literature exists about sensor intercomparison in Africa. By colocating 2 QuantAQ Modulair-PM, 2 PurpleAir PA-II SD, and 16 Clarity Node-S Generation II monitors with a reference-grade Teledyne monitor in Accra, Ghana, we present the first intercomparisons of different brands of low-cost sensors in Africa, demonstrating that each type of low-cost sensor PM2.5 is strongly correlated with reference PM2.5, but biased high for ambient mixture of sources found in Accra. When compared to a reference monitor, the QuantAQ Modulair-PM has the lowest mean absolute error at 3.04 μg/m3, followed by PurpleAir PA-II (4.54 μg/m3) and Clarity Node-S (13.68 μg/m3). We also compare the usage of 4 statistical or machine learning models (Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gaussian Mixture Regression, and XGBoost) to correct low-cost sensors data, and find that XGBoost performs the best in testing (R2: 0.97, 0.94, 0.96; mean absolute error: 0.56, 0.80, and 0.68 μg/m3 for PurpleAir PA-II, Clarity Node-S, and Modulair-PM, respectively), but tree-based models do not perform well when correcting data outside the range of the colocation training. Therefore, we used Gaussian Mixture Regression to correct data from the network of 17 Clarity Node-S monitors deployed around Accra, Ghana, from 2018 to 2021. We find that the network daily average PM2.5 concentration in Accra is 23.4 μg/m3, which is 1.6 times the World Health Organization Daily PM2.5 guideline of 15 μg/m3. While this level is lower than those seen in some larger African cities (such as Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo), mitigation strategies should be developed soon to prevent further impairment to air quality as Accra, and Ghana as a whole, rapidly grow.

Humidity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas

Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.

Jihoon Chung↗
NASA NTRS2026

Spatially Refined Satellite Gravimetry Captures Human Signatures in Global Terrestrial Water Storage Trends

Human activities have directly altered the water cycle through water management, aquifer pumping, agricultural irrigation, and land use change. Although satellite gravimetry has transformed global hydrological research, its coarse resolution limits attribution of freshwater change to human activities at many management-relevant scales. Here we assessed global terrestrial water storage (TWS) trends from April 2002 to November 2025 using “stacked” regression of Level-1B intersatellite ranging data, which leverages temporal information and variability to dramatically improve effective spatial resolution relative to standard approaches. We combined this refined product with rigorous uncertainty analysis, autocorrelation-robust geostatistical methods, and literature assessment to evaluate TWS trend associations with land and water use, climate variability, and glacial mass loss. We identified TWS trend hotspots exhibiting significant spatial associations with anthropogenic 40 drivers, including groundwater and surface-water irrigation, rainfed agriculture, deforestation, and reservoir impoundment. Across these regions, cumulative TWS losses (3,122 Gt) substantially exceeded gains (2,432 Gt). Compared with traditional regression of monthly mascons, our approach yielded regional trend magnitudes that are on average 33% larger, revealing that global freshwater depletion, particularly from groundwater pumping, is considerably more acute than previously estimated. Multivariate regression models show that humans account for a significant share of the spatial variability in TWS trends on every non-polar continent except Australia. We detected localized TWS gains linked to rainfed agriculture, surface water irrigation, and reservoir filling that were unresolved in earlier gravimetric studies. The methodology provides a foundation for future gravity missions to independently track decadal freshwater change with unprecedented spatial fidelity.

groundwater↗
NASA NTRS2020

Statistical Analysis of Factors Riving Surface Ozone Variability over Continental South Africa

Statistical relationships between surface ozone (O3) concentration, precursor species and meteorological conditions in continental South Africa were examined from data obtained from measurement stations in north-eastern South Africa. Three multivariate statistical methods were applied in the investigation, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component analysis (PCA) and –regression (PCR), and generalised additive model (GAM) analysis. The daily maximum 8-h moving average O3 concentrations were considered in these statistical models (dependent variable). MLR models indicated that meteorology and precursor species concentrations are able to explain ~50% of the variability in daily maximum O3 levels. MLR analysis revealed that atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), temperature and relative humidity were the strongest factors affecting the daily O3 variability. In summer, daily O3 variances were mostly associated with relative humidity, while winter O3 levels were mostly linked to temperature and CO. PCA indicated that CO, temperature and relative humidity were not strongly collinear. GAM also identified CO, temperature and relative humidity as the strongest factors affecting the daily variation of O3. Partial residual plots found that temperature, radiation and nitrogen oxides most likely have a non-linear relationship with O3,while the relationship with relative humidity and CO is probably linear. An inter-comparison between O3 levels modelled with the three statistical models compared to measured O3 concentrations showed that the GAM model offered a slight improvement over the MLR model. These findings emphasise the critical role of regional-scale O3 precursors coupled with meteorological conditions in daily variances of O3 levels in continental South Africa.

multiple linear regression (MLR)↗
NASA NTRS1998

Predicting lettuce canopy photosynthesis with statistical and neural network models

An artificial neural network (NN) and a statistical regression model were developed to predict canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) for 'Waldman's Green' leaf lettuce (Latuca sativa L.). All data used to develop and test the models were collected for crop stands grown hydroponically and under controlled-environment conditions. In the NN and regression models, canopy Pn was predicted as a function of three independent variables: shootzone CO2 concentration (600 to 1500 micromoles mol-1), photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) (600 to 1100 micromoles m-2 s-1), and canopy age (10 to 20 days after planting). The models were used to determine the combinations of CO2 and PPF setpoints required each day to maintain maximum canopy Pn. The statistical model (a third-order polynomial) predicted Pn more accurately than the simple NN (a three-layer, fully connected net). Over an 11-day validation period, average percent difference between predicted and actual Pn was 12.3% and 24.6% for the statistical and NN models, respectively. Both models lost considerable accuracy when used to determine relatively long-range Pn predictions (> or = 6 days into the future).

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1998

Distribution and observed associations of orthostatic blood pressure changes in elderly general medicine outpatients

Factors associated with orthostatic blood pressure change in elderly outpatients were determined by surveying 398 medical clinical outpatients aged 65 years and older. Blood pressure was measured with random-zero sphygmomanometers after patients were 5 minutes in a supine and 5 minutes in a standing position. Orthostatic blood pressure changes were at normally distributed levels with systolic and diastolic pressures dropping an average of 4 mm Hg (standard deviation [SD]=15 mm Hg) and 2 mm Hg (SD=11 mm Hg), respectively. Orthostatic blood pressure changes were unassociated with age, race, sex, body mass, time since eating, symptoms, or other factors. According to multiple linear regression analysis, supine systolic pressure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and diabetes mellitus were associated with a decrease in systolic pressure on standing. Hypertension, antiarthritic drugs, and abnormal heartbeat were associated with an increase in systolic pressure on standing. For orthostatic diastolic pressure changes, supine diastolic pressure and COPD were associated with a decrease in diastolic pressure on standing. Congestive heart failure was associated with an increase in standing diastolic pressure. Using logistic regression analysis, only supine systolic pressure was associated with a greater than 20-mm Hg drop in systolic pressure (n=53, prevalence=13%). Supine diastolic pressure and COPD were the only variables associated with a greater than 20-mm Hg drop in diastolic pressure (n=16, prevalence=4%). These factors may help physicians in identifying older persons at risk for having orthostatic hypotension.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1997

Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico

A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

Insect Vectors/growth & development↗
NASA NTRS2010

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

LDAR (LIGHTNING DETECTION AND RANGING)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating Soil Moisture Retrievals from ESA's SMOS and NASA's SMAP Brightness Temperature Datasets

Two satellites are currently monitoring surface soil moisture (SM) using L-band observations: SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), a joint ESA (European Space Agency), CNES (Centre national d'tudes spatiales), and CDTI (the Spanish government agency with responsibility for space) satellite launched on November 2, 2009 and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive), a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite successfully launched in January 2015. In this study, we used a multilinear regression approach to retrieve SM from SMAP data to create a global dataset of SM, which is consistent with SM data retrieved from SMOS. This was achieved by calibrating coefficients of the regression model using the CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Donnes) SMOS Level 3 SM and the horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperatures (TB) at 40 deg incidence angle, over the 2013 - 2014 period. Next, this model was applied to SMAP L3 TB data from Apr 2015 to Jul 2016. The retrieved SM from SMAP (referred to here as SMAP_Reg) was compared to: (i) the operational SMAP L3 SM (SMAP_SCA), retrieved using the baseline Single Channel retrieval Algorithm (SCA); and (ii) the operational SMOSL3 SM, derived from the multiangular inversion of the L-MEB model (L-MEB algorithm) (SMOSL3). This inter-comparison was made against in situ soil moisture measurements from more than 400 sites spread over the globe, which are used here as a reference soil moisture dataset. The in situ observations were obtained from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN; https:ismn.geo.tuwien.ac.at) in North of America (PBO_H2O, SCAN, SNOTEL, iRON, and USCRN), in Australia (Oznet), Africa (DAHRA), and in Europe (REMEDHUS, SMOSMANIA, FMI, and RSMN). The agreement was analyzed in terms of four classical statistical criteria: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE),Bias, Unbiased RMSE (UnbRMSE), and correlation coefficient (R). Results of the comparison of these various products with in situ observations show that the performance of both SMAP products i.e. SMAP_SCA and SMAP_Reg is 48 similar and marginally better to that of the SMOSL3 product particularly over the PBO_H2O, SCAN, and USCRN sites. However, SMOSL3 SM was closer to the in situ observations over the DAHRA and Oznet sites. We found that the correlation between all three datasets and in situ measurements is best (R 0.80) over the Oznet sites and worst (R 0.58) over the SNOTEL sites for SMAP_SCA and over the DAHRA and SMOSMANIA sites (R 0.51 and R 0.45 for SMAP_Reg and SMOSL3, respectively). The Bias values showed that all products are generally dry, except over RSMN, DAHRA, and Oznet (and FMI for SMAP_SCA). Finally, our analysis provided interesting insights that can be useful to improve the consistency between SMAP and SMOS datasets.

SMOS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗
NASA NTRS1964

Hybrid rocket propulsion <la propulsion par fusees hybrides<

The aim of the first part of this article is to demonstrate the potentialities of hybrids in the space program. These potentialities are applicable to all three main classes of chemical rockets currently in use, namely: (1) storable -propellant rockets, (2) cryogenic-propellant rockets, and (3) semistorable-propellant rockets, where the non-storable element is introduced at the time of firing. On the basis of these three categories, the properties of hybrid systems are discussed in relation to the specific impulse. The hybrid method of propulsion is compared with standard solid- and liquid-propellant propulsion systems. The second part of the article is concerned with the fundamental problems of combustion, the emphasis being placed on the rate of regression of the solid phase, which determines the performance of the system. Different theories of the regression rate are described and compared with various experimental results.

Cryogenic propellant↗
NASA NTRS1971

A seismic survey of the Manson disturbed area

The region in north-central Iowa referred to as the Manson disturbed area was investigated with the seismic refraction method and the bedrock configuration mapped. The area is approximately 30 km in diameter and is not detectable from the surface topography; however, water wells that penetrate the bedrock indicate that the bedrock is composed of disturbed Cretaceous sediments with a central region approximately 6 km in diameter composed of Precambrian crystalline rock. Seismic velocity differences between the overlying glacial till and the Cretaceous sediments were so small that a statistical program was developed to analyze the data. The program developed utilizes existing 2 segment regression analyses and extends the method to fit 3 or more regression lines to seismic data.

Sendlein, L. V. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A study of the effect of selected material properties on the ablation performance of artificial graphite

Eighteen material properties were measured on 45 different, commercially available, artificial graphites. Ablation performance of these same graphites were also measured in a Mach 2 airstream at a stagnation pressure of 5.6 atm. Correlations were developed, where possible, between pairs of the material properties. Multiple regression equations were then formulated relating ablation performance to the various material properties, thus identifying those material properties having the strongest effect on ablation performance. These regression equations reveal that ablation performance in the present test environment depends primarily on maximum grain size, density, ash content, thermal conductivity, and mean pore radius. For optimization of ablation performance, grain size should be small, ash content low, density and thermal conductivity high, and mean pore radius large.

Maahs, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Determination of the effects of graphite material properties on ablation performance.

Application of statistical methods to the problem of identifying those material properties of artificial graphite having the strongest effect on ablation performance. Ablation performance, as determined by total length change during test, recession rate, surface temperature, surface texture, and degree of gouging, was measured on 40 different, commercially available, artificial graphites in a Mach 2 airstream having a nominal enthalpy of 2.2 MJ/kg and a stagnation pressure of 5.6 atm. Eighteen material properties were measured on these same graphites, and correlations between pairs of these material properties were developed where possible, reducing the original 18 properties to ten mutually independent properties. Multiple regression equations were formulated relating ablation performance to the reduced set of ten independent material properties, thereby identifying those material properties having the most pronounced effect on ablation performance. These regression equations reveal that for optimum ablation performance in the present environment, grain size should be small, ash content low, density and thermal conductivity high, and mean pore radius large.

Maahs, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Stratospheric thickness determined directly from satellite radiance measurements.

Discussion of the use of satellite radiance data for determining the thickness of deep stratospheric layers. Empirical regression equations are shown to provide better estimates of stratospheric thickness than do mean weighted temperatures obtained from the Planck equation. The best regression equations were found for thick layers emitting a substantial portion of the CO2-band infrared radiation measured by satellites. By adding the layer thickness to the observed height field for the lower boundary, it is possible to construct constant-pressure maps at very high altitudes.

Quiroz, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Reflectance measurements for the detection and mapping of soil limitations

During 1971 and 1972 research was conducted on two fallow fields in the proposed Oahe Irrigation Project to investigate the relationship between the tonal variations observed on aerial photographs and the principal soil limitations of the area. A grid sampling procedure was used to collected detailed field data during the 1972 growing season. The field data was compared to imagery collected on May 14, 1971 at 3050 meters altitude. The imagery and field data were initially evaluated by a visual analysis. Correlation and regression analysis revealed a highly significant correlation and regression analysis revealed a highly significant correlation between the digitized color infrared film data and soil properties such as organic matter content, color, depth to carbonates, bulk density and reflectivity. Computer classification of the multiemulsion film data resulted in maps delineating the areas containing claypan and erosion limitations. Reflectance data from the red spectral band provided the best results.

Benson, L. A.↗