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At least 433 records · Page 24

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2020 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2020. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • HPCS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS EDG FTLR failure probability • EPS EDG unavailability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2022 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2022. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) HPCS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), and (3) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) EPS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS EDG FTLR failure probability, (3) EPS EDG unavailability, and (4) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2024

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2024 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2024. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of run>1H hours. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS EDG FTR>1H failure rate • EPS EDG unreliability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SYMBIOSYS: A Methodology for Performance Analysis of Composable HPC Data Services

Microservices are a powerful new way of building, customizing, and deploying distributed services owing to their flexibility and maintainability. Several large-scale distributed platforms have emerged to serve the growing needs of data-centric workloads and services in commercial computing. Concurrently, high-performance computing (HPC) systems and software are rapidly evolving to meet the demands of diversified applications and heterogeneity. The interplay of hardware factors, software configuration parameters, and the flexibility offered with a microservice architecture makes it nontrivial to estimate the optimal service instantiation for a given application workload. Further, this problem is exacerbated when considering that these services operate in a dynamic and heterogeneous HPC environment. An optimally integrated service can be vastly more performant than a haphazardly integrated one. Existing performance tools for HPC either fail to understand the request-response model of communication inherent to microservices or they operate within a narrow scope, limiting the insight that can be gleaned from employing them in isolation. We propose a methodology for integrated performance analysis of HPC microservices frameworks and applications called SYMBIOSYS. We describe its design and implementation within the context of the Mochi framework. This integration is achieved by combining distributed callpath profiling and tracing with a performance data exchange strategy that collects fine-grained, low-level metrics from the RPC communication library and network layers. The result is a portable, low-overhead performance analysis setup that provides a holistic profile of the dependencies among microservices and how they interact with the Mochi RPC software stack. Using HEPnOS, a production-quality Mochi data service, we demonstrate the low-overhead operation of SYMBIOSYS at scale and use it to identify the root causes of poorly performing service configurations.

microservices↗

Emergent temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon driven by mineral associations

Abstract Soil organic matter decomposition and its interactions with climate depend on whether the organic matter is associated with soil minerals. However, data limitations have hindered global-scale analyses of mineral-associated and particulate soil organic carbon pools and their benchmarking in Earth system models used to estimate carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Here we analyse observationally derived global estimates of soil carbon pools to quantify their relative proportions and compute their climatological temperature sensitivities as the decline in carbon with increasing temperature. We find that the climatological temperature sensitivity of particulate carbon is on average 28% higher than that of mineral-associated carbon, and up to 53% higher in cool climates. Moreover, the distribution of carbon between these underlying soil carbon pools drives the emergent climatological temperature sensitivity of bulk soil carbon stocks. However, global models vary widely in their predictions of soil carbon pool distributions. We show that the global proportion of model pools that are conceptually similar to mineral-protected carbon ranges from 16 to 85% across Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and offline land models, with implications for bulk soil carbon ages and ecosystem responsiveness. To improve projections of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks, it is imperative to assess underlying soil carbon pools to accurately predict the distribution and vulnerability of soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global biogeography of fungal and bacterial biomass carbon in topsoil

Bacteria and fungi, representing two major soil microorganism groups, play an important role in global nutrient biogeochemistry. Biogeographic patterns of bacterial and fungal biomass are of fundamental importance for mechanistically understanding nutrient cycling. We synthesized 1323 data points of phospholipid fatty acid-derived fungal biomass C (FBC), bacterial biomass C (BBC), and fungi:bacteria (F:B) ratio in topsoil, spanning 11 major biomes. The FBC, BBC, and F:B ratio display clear biogeographic patterns along latitude and environmental gradients including mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, net primary productivity, root C density, soil temperature, soil moisture, and edaphic factors. At the biome level, tundra has the highest FBC and BBC densities at 3684 (95% confidence interval: 1678–8084) mg kg -1 and 428 (237–774) mg kg -1 , respectively; desert has the lowest FBC and BBC densities at 16.92 (14.4–19.89) mg kg -1 and 6.83 (6.1–7.65) mg kg -1 , respectively. The F:B ratio varies dramatically, ranging from 1.8 (1.6–2.1) in savanna to 8.6 (6.7–11.0) in tundra. An empirical model was developed for the F:B ratio and it is combined with a global dataset of soil microbial biomass C to produce global maps for FBC and BBC in 0–30 cm topsoil. Across the globe, the highest FBC is found in boreal forest and tundra while the highest BBC is in boreal forest and tropical/subtropical forest, the lowest FBC and BBC are in shrub and desert. Global stocks of living microbial biomass C were estimated to be 12.6 (6.6–16.4) Pg C for FBC and 4.3 (0.5–10.3) Pg C for BBC in topsoil. These findings advance our understanding of the global distribution of fungal and bacterial biomass, which facilitates the incorporation of fungi and bacteria into Earth system models. The global maps of bacterial and fungal biomass serve as a benchmark for validating microbial models in simulating the global C cycle under a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land‐use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well‐defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning-Based Building Flexibility Estimation and Control to Improve Microgrid Economics and Resilience: Preprint

This paper proposes a learning-based building flexibility estimation and control framework to improve system economics and resilience. A data-driven building load flexibility model consisting of weather forecasting and estimating load consumption is proposed to quantify building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load flexibility. A reinforcement learning-based microgrid controller is proposed to dispatch distributed generators, distributed energy resources, and build HVAC loads while taking flexibility information as one of the inputs. Simulation analysis is conducted on the model of a real microgrid in California. The effectiveness of the proposed learning-based building flexibility estimation and control in reducing microgrid energy costs and improving the sustainability of critical loads is demonstrated.

building load flexibility↗

Quantifying Distribution System Resilience From Utility Data: Large Event Risk and Benefits of Investments

We focus on blackouts in electric distribution systems that have a large cost to customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we show how to calculate risk metrics from the historical outage data routinely collected by utilities' outage management systems. Risk is defined using a customer cost exceedance curve. The exceedance curve has a heavy tail that implies large fluctuations in large blackout costs, and this makes estimating the mean large cost in the usual way impractical. To avoid this problem, we use new resilience metrics describing the large event risk; these metrics are the probability of a large cost event, the annual log cost resilience index, and the average of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost events or the slope magnitude of the tail on a log–log exceedance curve. Resilience can be improved by planned investments to upgrade system components or speed up restoration. The benefits that these investments would have had if they had been made in the past can be quantified by “rerunning history” with the effects of the investment included, and then recalculating the large event risk to find the improvement in resilience. An example using utility data shows a 2% reduction in the probability of a large cost event due to 10% wind hardening and 6%–7% reduction due to 10% faster restoration in two different areas of a distribution utility. This new data-driven approach to quantify resilience and resilience investments is realistic and much easier to apply than complicated approaches based on modeling all the phases of resilience. Moreover, an appeal to improvements to past lived experience may well be persuasive to customers and regulators in making the case for resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

River Dynamics Control Transit Time Distributions and Biogeochemical Reactions in a Dam-Regulated River Corridor

Residence Time Distributions (RTDs) exert an important control on biogeochemical translation in the hydrological systems. Previous tracer studies have revealed that RTDs often followed time-invariant exponential, lognormal, or heavy-tailed RTDs that have power-law behavior for long tails in headwater or low-order streams. However, there is a recognition that RTDs can be more complicated and time-variable in response to dynamic hydrological forcing. Here, we use particle tracking to estimate RTDs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and to quantify the influences of river stage fluctuations. Particle tracking is conducted using the velocity field from high-resolution 3D groundwater flow simulations. The effects of hydrological forcing on the residence time distribution were evaluated by varying river flow boundary conditions and releasing particles in different time windows. Our results revealed that dynamic stage fluctuations created rapidly changing losing-gaining conditions in the river and led to highly transient RTDs, which contributes to multiple modes of RTDs. Dam-induced high-frequency (sub-daily) flow variation contributes to the short-time (sub-daily) component of the RTDs. Deviation of the reactant consumption under the single-mode assumption compared to the multimodal RTDs is relatively small (~5%) and appears when the Damköhler number was close to one.More specifically, high-frequency (daily) dam-induced stage variations have higher impacts on biogeochemical reactions with faster reaction rate, and can potentially increase the reactant consumption by 26.68%. Based on these findings, we suggest that current river basin models could be improved by including bank storage and more complex RTDs influenced by both short and long term river stage fluctuations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Guanajuato Policy Options for Land Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction [Slides]

NREL consulted the Mexican state of Guanajuato to help them identify and prioritize policies that are specifically applicable to their land transportation system and help them meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. Three focus groups were held across Guanajuato to get the input from a wide variety of users of the transportation system. These focus groups performed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of Guanajuato's transportation system and logged the policy goals of participants. NREL then developed a menu of policy options that have been used successfully in relevant countries and prioritized these policies based on the weighted input from stakeholder groups. The most applicable policies were a paid parking strategy, regional transit master plan, and expanded bike and pedestrian infrastructure. Case studies of these three policies, plus a few more, were then presented to inform Guanajuato of how these policies could successfully be implemented. Finally, the GHG reductions for five of the most applicable policies were estimated to reduce emissions from Guanajuato's land transportation system nearly 40% below business-as-usual emissions by 2050.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)

This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Distributed control of electric power grids

A method for determining power output levels of a plurality of nodes in an electric power system includes receiving, at a first node of the plurality of nodes, voltage information and multipliers of all neighboring nodes of the first node within the electric power system, determining, by the first node, a local power generation and a local voltage using the voltage information and the multipliers of the neighboring nodes and distributing the local power generation and the local voltage to the neighboring nodes, determining, by the first node, an estimated voltage of each of the neighboring nodes and distributing the estimated voltage to each of the neighboring nodes, and updating, by the first node, a local multiplier using the voltage information received from the neighboring nodes and the estimated voltage of each of the neighboring nodes determined by the node.

Ghosh, Soumyadip↗

Linearized Distribution Optimal Power Flow for OEDI SI

This research is to meant to demonstrate the OEDI SI use case for distributed optimal power flow (DOPF). The goal was to formulate the optimal power flow problem in the distribution system for active and reactive power setpoints of PV systems using topology information and voltage measurements. The co-simulation runs every 15 minutes as outlined within the scenario file for the given feeder configuration. The linked GitHub repository includes five federates to achieve DOPF for the small, medium, large, and IEEE 123 feeder scenarios. We are using the OEDI SI framework, as well as the example feeder, sensor, recorder, and estimator federates provided in the example repository for OEDI SI. We also provide a runner script for switching between scenarios.

algorithm↗

Proactive Frequency Stability Scheme: A Distributed Framework Based on Particle Filters and Synchrophasors

The reactive nature of traditional under-frequency load shedding schemes can lead to delayed response and unnecessary loss of load. This work presents a proactive framework for power system frequency stability. Bayesian filters and synchrophasors are leveraged to produce predictions after disturbances are detected. By being able to estimate the future state of frequency corrective actions can be taken before the system reaches a critical condition. This proactive approach makes it possible to optimize the response to a disturbance, which results in a decrease in the amount of compensation utilized. The framework is tested via Matlab simulations based on Kundur’s Two-Area System, and the IEEE 14-Bus System. Performance metrics are provided and evaluated against other contemporary solutions found in literature. During testing this framework outperformed other solutions by drastically reducing the amount of load dropped during compensation.

42 ENGINEERING↗