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DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Framework and Methodology for an Advanced Reactor Materials Environmental Effects Design Guide

Advanced non-light-water reactor components may operate at elevated temperature while experiencing cyclic loading, significant neutron irradiation, and exposure to reactor coolant. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section III, Division 5, provides design rules for elevated-temperature service but does not include specific procedures to account for environmental effects on material properties. This report develops an initial framework and methodology for an Environmental Effects Design Guide (EEDG) focused on neutron irradiation; coolant-environment effects are reserved for future work. The proposed approach treats irradiation as a property-based overlay on the existing Division 5 design process, with two routes: a sparse-data route applying two reduction factors — FCR on creep-rupture strength and FF on fatigue life — for the creep-fatigue evaluations that typically control the design of advanced high-temperature reactor components, and a fuller framework developing the property-to-rule chain across the four Division 5 checks (primary load, strain limits and ratcheting, creep-fatigue, and buckling), together with swelling and weldments as scope items. Both routes are scoped by an in-pile qualification that restricts the use of post-irradiation-examination-derived properties in regimes where an in-pile mechanism could control the design outcome. Illustrative outputs derived on a compiled annealed Type 316 database — FCR ≈ 0.78–0.86 and FF ≈ 0.4 — demonstrate the calculation method within that specific dataset. The framework is an initial, testable design-rule concept; it identifies a practical path for preliminary design evaluations under sparse data and the material data and testing needed to develop the framework further.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗

NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Study of Hatch Spacing’s Effect on Grain Morphology in Repairing Damaged Metal Parts with Welding and Hatch Spacing’s Potential Use in Lunar Exploration

The welding process is a potential way of repairing a damaged metal component, especially cavity damage caused by a harsh environment like the lunar environment, which is characterized by large temperature differences and reduced gravity. The adjustment of welding parameter (e.g., hatch spacing) can improve production efficiency in the repair process. Seen from the microstructural level, hatch spacing sensitivity affects the metallic grain evolution and morphology in the welding process, which can further influence a repaired part’s mechanical properties; however, the study of hatch spacing’s effect on microstructure is challenging. Traditional experimental procedures are costly and time-consuming, and any change in hatch spacing value needs roll-back of experimental procedure. A modeling study can address the above challenges in experimental observation. In this research, a modeling approach based on the Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) Potts theory was used to simulate grain evolution and morphology with three hatch spacings. Through quantifying and analyzing the predicted grain morphologies, the effect of hatch spacing on microstructure in a welding-fabricated part was investigated. The predicted grain morphologies were validated with an EBSD image of welding microstructure, which has been published before. The primary grain morphologies were columnar grains with a small amount of fine equiaxed grains formed in the scanning path centerline. When increasing the hatch spacing, the columnar grains become larger and more lengthy, while the effect of hatch spacing on the equiaxed grains is not obvious.

Welding for repairing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1998

Behavior of 2-Cell CPV Ni-H2 Battery During Pulse Discharge

A study was carried out to determine the transient voltage behavior of the 2-cell CPV nickel-hydrogen battery with the objective of using the results as a basis for mathematical modeling. The 2-cell CPV battery which is manufactured by Eagle Picher, Inc. for the GOES program yields 18.5 Ah at C/2 rate of discharge at 10 C with a mid-discharge voltage of 2.514 V. The capacity increased with decrease of temperature and a maximum capacity of 22 Ah was obtained at -5 C. The pulse tests consisted of obtaining the voltage profile in the first 20 milliseconds of the one minute pulse discharge at 37 A and pulse discharge was repeated as a function of state-of-charge. The pulse test at 10 C and 20 C provided voltage profiles with the expected decrease in voltage as the pulse was applied. The end of pulse voltage decreased with the state-of-charge. The battery voltage was above 2V at the end of the one-minute pulse at 8 % state-of-charge at 10 C. The voltage profile during the 37 A pulse discharge consists of an initial drop in voltage which was independent of the state of charge. The invariability in the value for the initial drop in voltage with state of charge is a very important observation. The results show that towards the end of discharge the dominant resistance is not ohmic in nature. It could be hypothesized from the nature of the voltage transients that the dominant mechanism towards the end of discharge is proton diffusion. The study also shows that the dominant resistance in the voltage plateau during discharge is activation polarization.

Vaidyanathan, Hari↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Scalpel Scanning Probe Microscopy for Enhanced Volumetric Sensing in Tomographic Analysis

Controlling nanoscale tip‐induced material removal is crucial for achieving atomic‐level precision in tomographic sensing with atomic force microscopy (AFM). While advances have enabled volumetric probing of conductive features with nanometer accuracy in solid‐state devices, materials, and photovoltaics, limitations in spatial resolution and volumetric sensitivity persist. This work identifies and addresses in‐plane and vertical tip‐sample junction leakage as sources of parasitic contrast in tomographic AFM, hindering real‐space 3D reconstructions. Novel strategies are proposed to overcome these limitations. First, the contrast mechanisms analyzing nanosized conductive features are explored when confining current collection purely to in‐plane transport, thus allowing reconstruction with a reduction in the overestimation of the lateral dimensions. Furthermore, an adaptive tip‐sample biasing scheme is demonstrated for the mitigation of a class of artefacts induced by the high electric field inside the thin oxide when volumetrically reduced. This significantly enhances vertical sensitivity by approaching the intrinsic limits set by quantum tunneling processes, allowing detailed depth analysis in thin dielectrics. The effectiveness of these methods is showcased in tomographic reconstructions of conductive filaments in valence change memory, highlighting the potential for application in nanoelectronics devices and bulk materials and unlocking new limits for tomographic AFM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Plasma flow generation and particle acceleration from expanding magnetic bubbles

Impulsive plasma dynamics in the laboratory are often driven by rising electric currents, yet their quantitative plasma response has not been well established. By means of fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations and laser-driven capacitor-coil experiments, we show that a rising current expels plasma, forming an expanding magnetic bubble and accelerating particles. The expansion front velocity scales with the Alfvén speed determined by the magnetic field at its inner edge and the plasma density at its outer edge. This mechanism establishes impulsive current drive as a fundamental way that generates plasma flows and accelerates particles in laboratory plasmas, with potential relevance to astrophysics.

Zhang, Yang [Princeton University, NJ (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-ray linear dichroic tomography of crystallographic and topological defects

Abstract The functionality of materials is determined by their composition 1–4 and microstructure, that is, the distribution and orientation of crystalline grains, grain boundaries and the defects within them 5,6 . Until now, characterization techniques that map the distribution of grains, their orientation and the presence of defects have been limited to surface investigations, to spatial resolutions of a few hundred nanometres or to systems of thickness around 100 nm, thus requiring destructive sample preparation for measurements and preventing the study of system-representative volumes or the investigation of materials under operational conditions 7–15 . Here we present X-ray linear dichroic orientation tomography (XL-DOT), a quantitative, non-invasive technique that allows for an intragranular and intergranular characterization of extended polycrystalline and non-crystalline 16 materials in three dimensions. We present the detailed characterization of a polycrystalline sample of vanadium pentoxide (V 2 O 5 ), a key catalyst in the production of sulfuric acid 17 . We determine the nanoscale composition, microstructure and crystal orientation throughout the polycrystalline sample with 73 nm spatial resolution. We identify and characterize grains, as well as twist, tilt and twin grain boundaries. We further observe the creation and annihilation of topological defects promoted by the presence of volume crystallographic defects. The non-destructive and spectroscopic nature of our method opens the door to operando combined chemical and microstructural investigations 11,18 of functional materials, including energy, mechanical and quantum materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS2026

Micromechanical Design of Carbon Nanotube Ribbon Reinforced Polymer Composite Materials

Lightweight materials are an important component of the design of aerospace structures. Carbon nanotube materials have been considered for this purpose due to the strength and stiffness of individual nanotubes, and the commercial availability of bulk formats such as fibers. These fibers can have a ribbon cross section which results in a different design space for their composites relative to traditional reinforcements which have a round cross section. This work applies brick-and-mortar micromechanical models and classical lamination theory with an inverse approach to investigate the design space of these composites. Using this approach, the influences of fiber geometry and axial and transverse mechanical properties are mapped. Finally, a sensitivity study is performed and the relative impacts of ±10% variations in the constituent material and geometric properties are ranked. Lamina axial moduli were found to range from a maximum of 3x to 1x minimum relative to a target quasi-isotropic laminate modulus depending on the anisotropy and shear modulus of the lamina. The fiber targets depended strongly on the fiber volume fraction in the lamina and the fiber axial modulus target was found to range from 4.8x to 3.2x the quasi-isotropic laminate target. The sensitivity analysis found that the largest driver of performance was the volume fraction, followed by the fiber axial modulus. While bio-based brick-and-mortar composites, such as nacre, can benefit from reinforcement aspect ratios above 10, for carbon nanotube ribbon (or carbon fiber)/polymer composites the sensitivity study indicated that the optimal cross-sectional aspect ratio was relatively smaller, potentially less than three.

Micromechanics↗

NASA NTRS2026

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

DOE OSTI2026

On-Chip Tuning of Superconductivity in Fullerides via Current-Driven Rb + Intercalation

An in-operando electro-intercalation method for the on-chip synthesis of alkali-metal-intercalated materials and their Raman spectroscopic and transport characterization in ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) is developed. We apply this method to synthesize fulleride superconductors via Rb + intercalation into a C 60 film. During the intercalation, we monitor the stoichiometry via UHV-Raman spectroscopy and probe superconductivity via transport measurements. An increase of the superconducting transition temperature from 7.0 K to 14.5 K is observed when the stoichiometry is tuned from Rb 2.7 C 60 to Rb 3 C 60 . In our experiment, an ionic Rb+ flux into the host material is induced by an applied electronic current via a Butler–Volmer-type mechanism. Electro-intercalation captivates through improved stoichiometric precision, the ability to smoothly vary stoichiometry via duration of current application, and the absence of a lower limit of the volume of the host material. It represents a powerful concept for the on-chip synthesis of intercalated materials, battery research, and beyond.

Raman↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photon–photon chemical thermodynamics of frequency conversion processes in highly multimode systems

Abstract Frequency generation in highly multimode nonlinear optical systems is inherently a complex process, giving rise to an exceedingly convoluted landscape of evolution dynamics. While predicting and controlling the global conversion efficiencies in such nonlinear environments has long been considered impossible, here, we formally address this challenge even in scenarios involving a very large number of spatial modes. By utilizing fundamental notions from optical statistical mechanics, we develop a universal theoretical framework that effectively treats all frequency components as chemical reactants/products, capable of undergoing optical thermodynamic reactions facilitated by a variety of multi-wave mixing effects. These photon–photon reactions are governed by conservation laws that directly determine the optical temperatures and chemical potentials of the ensued chemical equilibria for each frequency species. In this context, we develop a comprehensive stoichiometric model and formally derive an expression that relates the chemical potentials to the optical stoichiometric coefficients, in a manner akin to atomic/molecular chemical reactions. This advancement unlocks new predictive capabilities that can facilitate the optimization of frequency generation in highly multimode photonic arrangements, surpassing the limitations of conventional schemes that rely exclusively on nonlinear optical dynamics. Notably, we identify a universal regime of Rayleigh–Jeans thermalization where an optical reaction at near-zero optical temperatures can promote the complete and entropically irreversible conversion of light to the fundamental mode at a target frequency. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical simulations in settings where second-harmonic generation, sum-frequency generation and four-wave mixing processes can manifest.

Optics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Powder Characteristics and Processing Methods on Creep Performance of Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressed SS316

The U.S. nuclear energy expansion goals are driving the demand for manufacturing routes that can rapidly produce large, complex, near net shape components. Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM HIP) is an advanced manufacturing technique that can be economically scaled-up, while alleviating the supply chain challenges that forging and casting face in terms of cost and lead time constraints. This makes PM-HIP a viable technology to aid and accelerate large-scale part manufacturing for nuclear applications. However, large-scale qualification and deployment of this technology require a thorough understanding of the influence of powder feedstock quality, powder handling history, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) parameters, and subsequent heat treatment on microstructural evolution and elevated temperature mechanical performance. The present work focusses on 316 austenitic stainless steel (SS316) which is most commonly used in high temperature environments for nuclear applications Results from this study show that PM HIPed SS316 meets ASME tensile requirements at room temperature and at elevated temperature. However, creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316 remains inferior to its wrought counterpart, demonstrating that tensile performance alone is not a reliable metric for long duration high temperature integrity. Further, this report delineates powder derived microstructural features that govern creep damage, with key evidences pointing to “microstructural inheritance” from gas atomized powder feedstocks. Commercial SS316 powders of varying chemical compositions and recycling histories were studies, and the results showed large differences in elemental segregation, oxide surface layers and secondary phase distributions. Multi-scale characterization revealed segregation of chromium, molybdenum, manganese and silicon at the boundaries and the precipitation of manganese-, silicon-, and molybdenum-oxides. During HIP consolidation, these surface oxides transform into decorated prior particle boundaries (PPBs) and grain boundary inclusions that persist through conventional post-HIP solution annealing treatment. The retained oxides in post-HIP microstructures were found to influence grain growth, precipitation behavior, and ultimately creep cavitation and fracture. Such post-HIP heat treatments are therefore limited by a complex trade-off between grain growth, and oxide coarsening which aggravate creep damage by acting as nucleation sites for cavities. The objective of this work is to establish an integrated processing–structure–property framework for PM-HIP 316 stainless steel by investigating the influence of powder feedstock characteristics in pre- and post-HIP processing as well as to understand the significance of post-HIP heat treatment on microstructural evolution and creep properties. The results from this report emphasize the significance of powder feedstock integrity in improving creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316, by highlight the effect of rapid solidification, elemental segregation, oxide formation and powder recycling on microstructural defect inheritance following HIP consolidation. Rather than considering HIP processing, solution annealing, and mechanical performance independently, this report treats powder production, HIP consolidation, post-HIP thermal processing, and creep deformation as interconnected stages within a continuous metallurgical process. The resulting framework will provide a scientific basis for developing feedstock engineering strategies capable of improving long-term reliability of PM-HIP stainless steels and accelerating their qualification for advanced nuclear applications.

Ajjarapu, Pavan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Energy Hydroforming Friction Stir Welded 2050 Al-Li Blanks for Aerospace Domes and Cones

Friction stir welded (FSW) aluminum blanks offer larger preform sizes than available from the mill in single width plates. Large blanks made from aerospace-grade aluminum alloys are essential for making large domes and cones for launch vehicles and crew vehicles. Previous research efforts have demonstrated >5m FSW blanks can be formed into large domes or cones using spin forming, but the subsequent solution heat treatment consistently led to abnormal grain growth (AGG). The AGG phenomenon occurs because the FSW blanks must be spin formed in the -O annealed temper to withstand the high strain process without cracking. Subsequently, the solution heat treatment process leads to the onset of AGG, whereby a small number of grains grow much larger than the surrounding matrix. Ultimately, the large grains and bimodal grain-size distribution leads to unacceptable ductility in the short-transverse direction of the part. Alternatively, explosive hydroforming is a nascent process that can be applied to large and thick aerospace-grade aluminum alloy blanks in the -T3 temper and only require a post-forming artificial aging process to a -T8. Avoiding the solution heat treatment (SHT) process mitigates AGG, and also eliminates the need for very rare drop-furnace quench baths that can accommodate a part size larger than 5m in diameter. This presentation summarizes a Lockheed Martin-led effort that demonstrated explosive hydroforming of a 1.9m diameter, 39mm thick 2050 aluminum lithium FSW blank. Details will be provided on the process flow, mechanical properties, and metallographic analyses. This work was performed in partnership with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) under a NASA Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities program.

Friction stir welded blank↗

DOE OSTI2024

Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Transmission Dynamics Within Its Endemic Range in Chiapas, Mexico

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), comprising vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) and vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus (VSIV), emerges from its focus of endemic transmission in Southern Mexico to cause sporadic livestock epizootics in the Western United States. A dearth of information on the role of potential arthropod vectors in the endemic region hampers efforts to identify factors that enable endemicity and predict outbreaks. In a two-year, longitudinal study at five cattle ranches in Chiapas, Mexico, insect taxa implicated as VSV vectors (blackflies, sandflies, biting midges, and mosquitoes) were collected and screened for VSV RNA, livestock vesicular stomatitis (VS) cases were monitored, and serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies. VS cases were reported during the rainy (n = 20) and post-rainy (n = 2) seasons. Seroprevalence against VSNJV in adult cattle was very high (75–100% per ranch) compared with VSIV (0.6%, all ranches). All four potential vector taxa were sampled, and VSNJV RNA was detected in each of them (11% VSNJV-positive of 874 total pools), while VSIV RNA was only detected in four pools of mosquitoes. Our findings indicate that VSNJV is the dominant serotype across our sampling sites with a variety of potential insect vectors involved in its transmission throughout the year. Although no livestock cases were reported in Chiapas during the dry season, VSNJV was detected in insects during this period, suggesting that mechanisms other than transmission from livestock support VSV endemicity.

Virology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Crystallinity in Thermoplastic Composites for Aerospace Applications

Polymer matrix composites (PMCs) offer many benefits for the aerospace industry due to their potential for weight reduction when compared to metal or ceramic based materials. Most PMCs currently in flight use thermoset matrices, however, thermoplastic resins are being explored as alternatives due to their ability to be remelted, which is of particular interest due to the potential for in-situ repair and faster production. Most thermoplastic resins are semicrystalline polymers. The properties of semicrystalline thermoplastics are directly influenced by their crystallinity, which can vary due to many factors including thermal treatments, environmental conditions, and mechanical deformation. Within thermoplastic PMC parts, crystallinity gradients can arise due to variations in part geometry, across part thicknesses, and along bonded joints. Monitoring the crystallinity of thermoplastic composites is key to ensuring these materials meet the high demands required for aerospace. Several different analytical techniques exist that can be used to characterize the bulk crystallinity of thermoplastic materials. However, many existing methods lack the specificity required to identify the subtle variations in crystallinity that may play a significant role in the performance and durability of PMC parts. Because of this, a significant amount of work is still required to fully characterize and understand the crystallinity profiles of thermoplastic PMCs and the resulting impact to material properties. This talk discusses the use of multiple techniques such as Differential Scanning Calorimetry, Polarized Light Optical Microscopy, and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy to characterize the crystallinity in carbon fiber/thermoplastic composites. Samples of different crystallinity profiles were manufactured using various cooling procedures. This work aims to provide the fundamental data necessary to understand the effects of crystallinity on thermoplastic PMCs, which is key to advancing their use in aerospace applications.

Thermoplastics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-dimensional nucleation and growth of deformation twins in magnesium

At two-thirds the weight of aluminum, magnesium alloys have the potential to reduce the fuel consumption of transportation vehicles. These advancements depend on our ability to optimize the desirable versus undesirable effects of deformation twins, which are three-dimensional (3D) microstructural domains that form under mechanical stresses. Previously only characterized through surface or thin-film measurements, we here present 3D in situ characterization of deformation twinning inside an embedded grain over mesoscopic fields of view using dark-field x-ray microscopy supported by crystal plasticity finite element analysis. The results revealed the role of triple junctions on twin nucleation and the sequence and irregularity of twin growth and showed that twin-grain junctions, twin-twin junctions, and twin boundaries were the sites of localized dislocation accumulation.

Lee, Sangwon [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (Un↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗