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DOE OSTI2026

Best Practices for Resilience Hub Development and Management

The Carbon League and its community partners in East St. Louis, Illinois, have identified five facilities to serve as resilience hubs. These hubs are intended to support the local community through a range of services and resources during blue-sky (everyday), gray-sky (pre-event), and black-sky (emergency) conditions. Transforming these facilities into fully functional resilience hubs requires a broad operational improvement and programmatic planning roadmap. This memo outlines best practices to guide the development of these resilience hubs in East St. Louis, including recommendations for infrastructure services; safety and physical protection; community services; operational protocols; and a phased implementation strategy aligned with realistic funding and capacity constraints. Infrastructure recommendations include strengthening electric power, communications, water, sanitation, and transportation/logistics capabilities, all of which are essential for hubs that may serve as cooling and warming centers, distribution points, and information hubs during emergencies. Safety recommendations focus on accessibility, emergency action planning, indoor air quality, and secure storage of critical equipment. A phased roadmap provides guidance from immediate, low-cost readiness actions to long-term optimization and community integration. Performance metrics and maintenance protocols ensure continuous improvement and operational readiness. This guidance draws on best practices that can be used to support the development of resilient, community-centered hubs capable of enhancing public safety, health, and well-being during everyday operations and emergencies alike.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2026

Designing a Propylene-Glycol Coolant Servicer System for Gateway’s Internal Active Thermal Control System

A human spacecraft ATCS—especially one using single-phase coolant loops exposed to cabin atmospheric conditions—requires periodic degassing and refilling to support long-duration missions of 15 to 30 years. During initial fill operations, system maintenance, gas permeation, and quick-disconnect mating or de-mating, small amounts of gas can gradually enter the coolant system over time. This can lead to degraded heat transfer performance, pump cavitation, and potentially pump vapor lock if a significant gas volume accumulates over time. Additionally, system leaks and routine fluid sampling can gradually reduce accumulator volumes to unacceptable levels, requiring periodic refills. In more severe cases, catastrophic changes in fluid composition may necessitate emergency draining, refilling, and degassing to ensure continued system functionality. These risks were identified and mitigated on the ISS ITCS through the development of a dual-membrane degasser ORU and a Fluid Servicer System ORU for coolant refilling. These systems were developed for the fully water-based ISS ITCS Coolant[1]. The Gateway space station, the first permanent human habitat in lunar orbit, uses a propylene-glycol/water coolant mixture, which has significantly different fluid properties compared to pure water. Because microgravity degassing technologies are sensitive to fluid surface tension and viscosity, existing ISS hardware is not suitable for servicing a propylene-glycol-based TCS. Unlike the ISS, the Gateway will operate in a higher-radiation environment and must meet stricter mass constraints due to its location outside of low earth orbit. This Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) flight hardware project aims to develop a lightweight, radiation-resistant Coolant Servicer System (CSS) capable of degassing and refilling Gateway’s propylene-glycol water-based IATCS.

Propylene Glycol Water↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SERENE: Saturn Enceladus Return Explorer with Nuclear Electric Propulsion

A ‘quick’ Enceladus sample return mission concept was developed based on the scientist recommendations at the recent ‘Accelerating Space Science with Nuclear Technology Workshop’. The Nuclear Electric Propulsion spacecraft assumed a follow-on 40 kWe nuclear reactor using the demonstrated 40 kWe Fission Surface Power system, expected in the early 2030s. The NEP vehicle also utilized a set of NEXT-C ion thrusters as well as planned Artemis commercial launchers. By launching the 40 kW NEP vehicle on a Starship and adding the propellants of 15 tankers, the 27t probe could be sent on a direct trajectory to Saturn (no Earth or Jupiter flybys) where NEP was used for Saturn capture, spiral down, spiral up and return to the Earth. A small lander obtained the surface Enceladus sample. Using the 40 kW NEP provided a round-trip time of only 16.5 years. A second option was more attractive from a science perspective whereby the NEP vehicle would deliver a large, 6t chemical lander to low Enceladus orbit where it would grab and return a sample to Earth (similar to the recent Orbilander design but in reverse). After deploying the lander, the NEP vehicle would stay in Saturn space performing a moon tour by orbiting four more moons and mapping the large moon of Titan. This option took slightly longer (18.5 yrs) due to the chemical return leg limitations. Both options demonstrated the agility, payload capability, and sample return goals the workshop recommended. An all-chemical option with two stages was roughly analyzed but took 21.5 yrs and required a Jupiter gravity assist.

Nuclear Electric Propulsion↗

NASA NTRS2026

Designing a Propylene-Glycol Coolant Servicer System for Gateway’s Internal Active Thermal Control System

Propylene Glycol Water↗

DOE OSTI2026

Phase Stability and Electrochemical Performance of La-Site-Doped Li6La3Zr0.5Nb0.5Ta0.5Hf0.5O12 High-Entropy Garnets

We investigate La-site substitution in the high-entropy garnet Li6La3Zr0.5Nb0.5Ta0.5Hf0.5O12 (LLZNTH) using Ba2+, Sr2+, and Sm3+ to elucidate how dopant governs phase stability, Li-site distribution, and electrochemical behavior. X-ray diffraction shows that Sr2+ is incorporated homogeneously into the garnet lattice, whereas the larger Ba2+ and smaller Sm3+ ions partially exceed the structural tolerance, generating secondary phases. Nevertheless, the Sm-doped composition (x = 0.05) exhibits the highest room-temperature ionic conductivity (2.7 × 10–4 S cm–1). Neutron powder diffraction reveals that Sm substitution drives a redistribution of Li+ from the tetrahedral 24 d sites into the higher-mobility 96 h positions, enhancing the connectivity of the three-dimensional Li-ion migration network. A Sm-doping series (x = 0.01–0.05) further shows that only sufficiently high Sm levels induce this redistribution, whereas lower concentrations retain Li arrangements similar to the undoped garnet. Critical current density measurements demonstrate that La-site dopants also influence interfacial stability against Li metal, underscoring a trade-off between bulk transport enhancement and mechanical robustness. Collectively, these findings reveal that in high-entropy garnets improved ionic conductivity can originate not only from phase-pure structures but also from targeted modification of the Li sublattice, even when accompanied by secondary phases, offering a compositional design principle for garnet electrolytes.

Li, Chang [Mechanical Engineering, School of Scien↗

DOE OSTI2026

Carbon source–driven metabolic and regulatory remodeling defines phenomic states in Lipomyces starkeyi

Lipomyces is a genus of oleaginous yeasts with potential for contributing to reliable biomanufacturing supply chains. However, progress in advanced strain designs and engineering efforts are still constrained by a lack of understanding of the underlying molecular drivers of Lipomyces phenotypes. To address this gap, we collected a suite of multi-omic data to dissect how carbon source availability reshapes the metabolic network, lipid allocation, and regulatory architecture of Lipomyces starkeyi. We observed that glucose promotes biosynthetic and proliferative processes supported by abundant energy and carbon intermediates, xylose enhances redox-balancing mechanisms centered on the pentose phosphate pathway, and glycerol activates respiratory metabolism, ß-oxidation, and the glyoxylate cycle. Lipid species distributions remained consistent in both nitrogen replete and depleted conditions across the carbon sources, indicating robust production mechanisms. Regulatory protein identification and network analysis revealed glycerol-driven respiratory growth favors regulatory programs integrating stress tolerance, redox balance, and lipid-associated metabolism, whereas xylose growth activates compensatory transcriptional responses aimed at maintaining mitochondrial function. Nitrogen limitation modulates the strength of these responses but does not fundamentally alter their direction, reinforcing carbon source as the dominant driver of regulatory architecture. Taken together, this data enhances the understanding of Lipomyces molecular rearrangements and provides a foundation for further development of predictive phenotypic tools in this genus.

Biotechnology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Boron-Based Neutron Scintillator Screen Characterization with X-Rays and Neutrons

Recent work on boron-based neutron scintillator screens suggests these screens can offer superior performance when compared to commonly used screens. Borated neutron scintillator screens perform well in terms of light output (5-6 times greater than a standard Gadox screen) and detection effi-ciency (larger than standard LiF+ZnS screens). However, previously manu-factured boron-based screens have exhibited non-uniform surface coating and a poor mixture between phosphor and converter particles. The objective of this work was to evaluate newly fabricated scintillator screens to deter-mine if enhanced fabrication methods produced a more homogeneous distribution between neutron converter and scintillation phosphor particles. Uniformity of scintillator material deposition was also inspected. This new iteration of screens appeared more uniform than previous generations with the new coating method improving surface chemistry and scintillator material homogeneity. Additionally, a new methodology for screen characterization, involving the correlation of a neutron image taken with a borated scintillator screen to X-ray computed tomography of that same screen, was demonstrated to elucidate a relationship between scintillator screen thickness and relative light output of the screen under neutron exposure. This method suggested that the ideal thickness of scintillator material was ~150 µm to maximize light output of the screen.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2026

Influence of Processing Parameters on the Mechanical Properties of 3D Printed Borosilicate Particulate Reinforced Polymer Composites

Emerging composite materials are expanding the potential of additive manufacturing and enabling applications previously restricted by traditional manufacturing methods. The multi-phase nature of these composite materials combined with the complex in-ternal geometry of additively manufactured parts have enabled unique behavior, and potentially new applications. Additionally, these materials can be pyrolyzed to create dense metal, ceramic, and glass parts with geometries typically not achievable by tra-ditional processes. Additive manufacturing of borosilicate glass-based systems can open new applications in nuclear engineering, astronomy, and bone regrowth therapy. To elucidate the process-parameter relationship of borosilicate-polylactic acid (PLA) composites, mechanical testing was conducted and compared with a pure polylactic acid polymer baseline. Test specimens were fabricated by fused-filament fabrication with minimal post-processing. Yield strength, ultimate strength, and elastic modulus were calculated from stress-strain curves. Optical and scanning electron microscopy were conducted to observe the specimen microstructure before and after testing. The highest compressive yield strength for the composite was 28.22 MPa, and the highest compressive yield strength for PLA was 49.30 MPa. Print orientation was found to benefit the composite material but have a detrimental effect on the pure matrix material. An elastic modulus of 2.66 GPa was recorded for the borosilicate-PLA composite at 100% infill, 1 shell wall, and layer lines parallel to compression axis. Microscopy revealed that lower modulus composite specimens had the particulates re-distributed within the matrix. Tensile testing was done according to a polymer testing standard, which caused difficulties obtaining consistent fracture within the gauge length.

mechanical testing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nanostructuring and Underscreening of Bisalt Electrolytes with Dual-Anion Effects: Insights from Small-Angle Scattering Prepeak Analysis

Using small-angle neutron scattering, we studied the nanostructure of a prototypical D(H)-bonded network electrolyte, alkaline sodium aluminate bisalt, at concentrations up to solute volume fraction of ~0.5. Analysis of the structure factor prepeak at 0.1 < Q < 1.0 Å-1 showed that its evolution is associated with nanoscopic species distribution in water-anion network., with differences in characteristic distance d between OD- and Al(OD)4- anions related to their distinct sizes and interactions. When the solute volume fraction approached 0.5, a common/maximum value of ~4.5 Å was found for the correlation length ? that characterizes the electrostatic force in concentrated electrolyte solution before precipitation occurred. This implies that the solutions’ morphology and behavior at high concentrations may be governed by geometric factors, rather than the chemistry of the specific anion. Furthermore, the scaling of ? with concentration yielded an exponent of 1.25(1), suggesting that ? is limited to a few Å. By combining the current observations of structural heterogeneity at the nanoscale, with dynamic heterogeneity at the microscopic scale from our previous quasi-elastic neutron scattering study, we have established a structural origin of local “caging” and restricted structural relaxation processes. These local solvent-solute interactions not only control dynamics heterogeneity in concentrated electrolytes but also are responsible for crystallization processes in industrial setting, such as aluminum production and radioactive waste treatment.

Wang, Hsiu-Wen↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evidence for Multiple Diagenetic Episodes in Ancient Fluvial‐Lacustrine Sedimentary Rocks in Gale Crater, Mars

The Curiosity rover's exploration of rocks and soils in Gale crater has provided diverse geochemical and mineralogical data sets, underscoring the complex geological history of the region. We report the crystalline, clay mineral, and amorphous phase distributions of four Gale crater rocks from an 80‐m stratigraphic interval. The mineralogy of the four samples is strongly influenced by aqueous alteration processes, including variations in water chemistries, redox, pH, and temperature. Localized hydrothermal events are evidenced by gray hematite and maturation of amorphous SiO 2 to opal‐CT. Low‐temperature diagenetic events are associated with fluctuating lake levels, evaporative events, and ground water infiltration. Among all mudstones analyzed in Gale crater, the diversity in diagenetic processes is primarily captured by the mineralogy and X‐ray amorphous chemistry of the drilled rocks. Variations indicate a transition from magnetite to hematite and an increase in matrix‐associated sulfates suggesting intensifying influence from oxic, diagenetic fluids up section. Furthermore, diagenetic fluid pathways are shown to be strongly affected by unconformities and sedimentary transitions, as evidenced by the intensity of alteration inferred from the mineralogy of sediments sampled adjacent to stratigraphic contacts.

C N Achilles↗

NASA NTRS2026

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗

NASA NTRS2026

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Energy Hydroforming Friction Stir Welded 2050 Al-Li Blanks for Aerospace Domes and Cones

Friction stir welded (FSW) aluminum blanks offer larger preform sizes than available from the mill in single width plates. Large blanks made from aerospace-grade aluminum alloys are essential for making large domes and cones for launch vehicles and crew vehicles. Previous research efforts have demonstrated >5m FSW blanks can be formed into large domes or cones using spin forming, but the subsequent solution heat treatment consistently led to abnormal grain growth (AGG). The AGG phenomenon occurs because the FSW blanks must be spin formed in the -O annealed temper to withstand the high strain process without cracking. Subsequently, the solution heat treatment process leads to the onset of AGG, whereby a small number of grains grow much larger than the surrounding matrix. Ultimately, the large grains and bimodal grain-size distribution leads to unacceptable ductility in the short-transverse direction of the part. Alternatively, explosive hydroforming is a nascent process that can be applied to large and thick aerospace-grade aluminum alloy blanks in the -T3 temper and only require a post-forming artificial aging process to a -T8. Avoiding the solution heat treatment (SHT) process mitigates AGG, and also eliminates the need for very rare drop-furnace quench baths that can accommodate a part size larger than 5m in diameter. This presentation summarizes a Lockheed Martin-led effort that demonstrated explosive hydroforming of a 1.9m diameter, 39mm thick 2050 aluminum lithium FSW blank. Details will be provided on the process flow, mechanical properties, and metallographic analyses. This work was performed in partnership with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) under a NASA Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities program.

Friction stir welded blank↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success

With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.

Grant, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2026

Improvement of Odor Control for the UWMS Hard-Sided Fecal Canister and the Alternate Fecal Canister

On longer range exploration missions, the mass and volume of critical hardware and consumables required to support crew will pose a big stowage challenge. This includes the hardware for the collection and storage of human metabolic solid waste. The amount of stowage needed for this hardware both before (empty) and after (full) use will be a significant burden on the overall spacecraft habitable volume, layout, and design. To help with this challenge, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Mars Campaign Office (MCO) Logistics Reduction (LR) Portfolio has developed a collapsible canister for the collection and containment of fecal deposits. The Alternate Fecal Canister (AFC) is a collapsible alternative to the exploration toilet Hard-sided Fecal Canister (HFC). The AFC in its empty state has a volumetric benefit to smaller vehicles on longer missions. The current designs for HFC and AFC were tested with human fecal material for odor containment at White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) where the tests on both were unsuccessful. The source of the lack of containment was isolated to a gasket used on both HFC and AFC. The gasket used was found to be open cell in design. This paper provides a summary of the materials selection and testing process to identify a replacement gasket material with the intention to replace the gaskets on both existing units as well as incorporate it into the designs going forward for future builds for exploration. Details will be provided on the design of the canisters interface with the odor bacteria lid which led to the selection of the thickness of the desired replacement. Finally, the paper will provide an update on the testing in advance of a return to WSTF for final testing and detail plans to complete testing and perform a demonstration on ISS with UWMS.

Toilet↗

DOE OSTI2026

Monolayer Films of Binary Metal Oxide Nanoparticles for Carbon Nanotube Synthesis

Binary metal oxide nanoparticles (biMO-NPs) combining transition and main-group metals with well-organized atomic architectures have unique potential as robust and economical heterogeneous catalysts. Herein, metal oxide nanoparticles (CoAlxOy) using cobalt and aluminum were synthesized, and their structure, morphology, and chemical composition were investigated using various characterization techniques. The biMO-NPs, which had a Gaussian-type size distribution (∼6 nm), were assembled on plain silicon substrates modified chemically with linker molecules bearing suitable end groups. Surface analysis revealed an ordered, uniform, close-packed arrangement of biMO-NPs forming a monolayer architecture with nanoscale thickness (∼12 nm), high surface uniformity, and negligible defects. The nanoparticle monolayer film (NP-MF) was employed as a catalyst to grow carbon nanotube (CNT) forests via the thermal chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method, similar to those grown from catalyst thin films deposited by physical vapor deposition. Structural characterization confirmed the growth of a dense, uniform, high-quality vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VA-CNT) forest with a length of ∼125 µm, which is comparable to the VA-CNTs grown from expensive thin films. Thus, CNT growth was successfully catalyzed by the biMO-NPs, highlighting a simple and inexpensive alternative for catalyst deposition. In this innovative wet-chemistry approach, the catalyst and catalyst support are combined within a single nanoparticle before NP-MF assembly. Interestingly, this approach provides a scalable and cost-effective pathway for CNT growth, eliminating the need for expensive thin deposition techniques.

Regmi, Bishow [University of Cincinnati]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗