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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Decay Heat and Thermal Hydraulic Capability for Loss-of-Coolant Accident Simulations

As the nuclear energy industry considers ways to achieve improved economics in the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs), one possible approach is to operate each cycle for longer durations. This causes a greater portion of the fuel to be burned and reduces the frequency of outages, which ultimately reduces the cost to operate the reactor. However, this also leads to higher burnup fuels than has traditionally been allowed in these reactors. Thus, there are concerns about integrity of high-burnup (HBu) fuel, especially during accident conditions such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), as shown by Capps et al.. To investigate these concerns, advanced modeling and simulation capabilities are being leveraged to determine the susceptibility of HBu fuel to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersion (FFRD). Improvements have previously been made to fuel performance capabilities to more accurately model these phenomena; multiphysics simulations have also been conducted to determine the power and burnup histories of the HBu fuel, which are needed as inputs for the fuel performance calculations. Most recently, new statistical approaches have been developed to identify a subset of fuel rods that have greater FFRD susceptibility, reducing the total number of fuel performance simulations required. Prior LOCA simulations have relied on the TRACE systems code, which can model the core and primary loop during accident conditions. TRACE includes many models for various aspects of the primary loop, but two sets of models are important for this report. First, TRACE uses a lumped-fuel approach for modeling the core. This approximates the ~50,000 fuel rods in the core with a much smaller number of rods. The rods can be lumped in various ways as determined by the user. For example, one lumped rod may be used to represent all rods in an assembly, sometimes with an additional rod representing the hottest fuel rod. However, due to runtime constraints and complexity of modeling, a more common approach is to group several assemblies or larger regions of the core into single lumped rods. These lumping schemes apply not only to fuel rods but to flow channels as well. Second, TRACE has several different models for treating decay heat, ranging from pregenerated decay heat curves based on an ANSI/ANS-5.1 standard (hereinafter abbreviated simply as ANSI) to explicit time-dependent heat inputs from the user. None of these models account for differences in isotopics between different rods, which is an approximation the work in this report seeks to eliminate. This report focuses on the implementation of coupled decay heat capabilities in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite to address a gap identified in previous LOCA simulations. This constitutes an improvement for both the lumped-fuel and decay heat models in TRACE. VERA has been developed to perform high-fidelity, whole-core multiphysics simulations for LWRs. Previously, during the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL) program, the emphasis was on providing accurate steady-state analysis—with a secondary focus on reactivity insertion accident (RIA) analysis—to address operational challenges in the nuclear energy industry. Under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, these capabilities are being extended to a broader range of transient analyses with the goal of quantifying the risk of fuel failures such as FFRD. To properly model such conditions with VERA, decay heat calculations have been integrated with the multiphysics to enable rod-by-rod thermal hydraulic (TH) conditions to be driven by the decay heat in long-running accidents such as LOCAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of hydrothermal corrosion model and BWR metal coating for CVD SiC in light water reactors

SiC/SiC fiber composites with CVD SiC overcoats are potential candidates for light water reactor advanced accident tolerant cladding materials. Understanding its corrosion kinetics in Light Water Reactor (LWR) conditions is essential to evaluate the concept's viability. Existing models only account for the temperature and oxygen concentration effect on the hydrothermal corrosion behavior applicable to LWR operating conditions. However, the development of a general corrosion rate for CVD SiC that accounts for the impact of irradiated microstructure, flow rate, electrical resistivity, pH, and surface roughness is critical for the practical realization of SiC/SiC-based cladding concepts. After a rigorous experimental campaign, this work updates the existing hydrothermal corrosion model to predict hydrothermal corrosion in LWRs. Numerical radiation and coolant chemistry analysis for LWRs conducted based on the updated corrosion kinetic models suggests that CVD SiC is likely a viable environmental barrier coating for Pressurized Water Reactors while questionable for Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) when the effect of irradiation damage on SiC corrosion is considered. An effective mitigation strategy for the double-layer metal coating is proposed for BWR applications. The double-layer metal coating comprising a FeCrAl overcoat with an intermediate Cr bond coating was observed to provide a stable protective barrier against SiC dissolution in BWR conditions. Finally, the proposed metal coating was also fully adherent following quench and burst tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cluster dynamics modeling of irradiation growth in single crystal Zr

Irradiation growth of single-crystal Zr is modeled with a reduced set of cluster dynamics equations. Nucleation and growth of basal and prismatic dislocation loops are both accounted for in the model. Equations are developed for the time evolution of single point defects, a limited number of point defect clusters, interstitial and vacancy loop nucleation rates, as well as for the growth of vacancy loops on basal planes and interstitial loops on prismatic planes. Reduction of the usual infinite hierarchy of cluster dynamics equations to the simple set studied here is justified on the physical basis of the stability of small loops once nucleated. This simplified cluster dynamics model with a small number of adjustable parameters avoids the complexity of explicit representation of higher order point defect clusters. The model shows consistency with experimental observations of the following aspects: (1) the growth rates of Zr crystals along the a- and c-axes; (2) the onset dose for breakaway irradiation growth; (3) the saturation dislocation loop densities of vacancy and interstitial loops; (4) the effects of cold work and temperature on irradiation growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiolytic and Thermolytic Bubble Gas Hydrogen Composition

The original version of this report described the development of a mathematical model for the estimation of the hydrogen composition of gas bubbles trapped in radioactive waste. The model described therein used a material balance approach to accurately incorporate the rates of hydrogen generation by several physical phenomena and scale the aforementioned rates in a manner that allows calculation of the final hydrogen composition. The proposed model accounted for the following physical phenomena: H 2 generation by primary radiolysis of water and salt solutions; H 2 generation by secondary radiolysis of formate and glycolate molecules in solution; Observation of negligible H 2 generation by thermolysis of formate at temperatures below 120 °C; H 2 generation by thermolysis of glycolate in caustic solutions; O 2 consumption by radiolysis and thermolysis of organic species. Additionally, the originally-proposed model conservatively excluded the following physical phenomena that are known to contribute slightly to the hydrogen composition in trapped gas bubbles: Equilibrium concentration of water vapor in trapped gas bubbles; Generation of N 2 O during radiolysis of nitrite solutions; Incomplete consumption of O 2 by organics. In this revision, the methodology for glycolate thermolysis has been improved to agree with recent findings published by Woodham and Martino. Furthermore, considerations for the thermolysis of organics other than glycolate have been made. In the case of non-glycolate organics, no evidence of non-flammable gas formation exists. Therefore, non-glycolate thermolysis is considered additive for conservatism.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D probabilistic fracture mechanics / computational fluid dynamics simulation of a reactor pressure vessel under transient conditions

Reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) are safety-critical light-water-reactor components that, under irradiation, experience long-term material degradation in the form of embrittlement. This can increase their susceptibility to fracture under thermal-shock conditions, which could occur during off-normal transients such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). During a LOCA, the most severe conditions for the RPV occur when emergency core cooling water is injected through the cold legs into the water-and-steam-filled RPV. The rapid cooling of the downcomer and internal RPV surface causes decreased temperature and elevated thermally driven tensile stresses in the RPV wall. This, combined with long-term material embrittlement, may cause fracture initiation at pre-existing flaws, challenging the integrity of the RPV. Assessing RPV integrity during transients with a large spatial variation in the coolant temperature requires a modeling approach that considers the effects of spatially varying coolant temperature on the fracture probability of a population of flaws distributed throughout the RPV, accounting for spatially varying embrittlement. Here, the present study addresses this need by demonstrating first-of-its-kind coupling of a high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamics code with 3D probabilistic fracture mechanics This was accomplished using representative models of a pressurized-water reactor subjected to small- and medium-break LOCA conditions, both of which can result in large spatial temperature variations. While the observed impact of accounting for 3D effects was minimal under the small-break LOCA this study indicates a significant increase in the probability of fracture initiation under the medium-break LOCA when 3D effects are considered, relative to a spatially uniform cooling scenario.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progress Report on Model Development for Aerosol Transport through Divergent Cracks Paths

This report summarizes the progress in developing a phenomenological model of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging through microchannels. The purpose of this effort is to introduce to a user community—involving researchers, regulators, and industry—a generic, reliable numerical model for the prediction of aerosol transport while accounting for potential deposition and plugging of the leak paths to model spent nuclear fuel (SNF) release from postulated Stress Corrosion Cracks in canisters under storage or transportation. Current work focuses on expanding the model to predict aerosol (and gas) flow through complex microchannel (nozzle) geometries in addition to the rectangular and cylindrical geometries, as we approach more realistic Stress Corrosion Crack conditions. In this regard, a divergent nozzle geometry, used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for testing aerosol release and retention (Durbin et al. 2021), was added to the model. The model was then validated with blowdown data for the particular microchannel, from experiments conducted at SNL. The report also presents preliminary non-benchmarked aerosol penetration fraction and mass flow rate for a monodisperse 10-micron (AED) particle concentration of 1.7e-08 kg/m 3 being released through the divergent microchannel geometry from the SNL’s aerosol experimental tank setup.Future work will involve validating the aerosol model and updating the model’s Graphical User Interface (GUI) to include the divergent nozzle geometry. This is expected to help stakeholders perform quick and easy first principles calculations without needing to understand the underlying MATLAB script.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of cladding failure thresholds in RIA conditions based on transient reactor test data and the need for continued testing

Transient reactor experiments on light water reactor (LWR) fuel pins had been conducted since the beginning of the nuclear era to help determine core coolability and cladding failure thresholds. During one such test in November of 1993 at the CABRI transient test reactor on a test involving a high burnup fuel rod with a corroded Zircaloy-4 cladding it was first observed that cladding failures could occur prior to a departure from nucleate boiling (pre-DNB) at lower-than-expected peak radial average enthalpies. Thirteen additional tests would be performed in the CABRI reactor over the next decade on fuel rods with higher burnups [1]. Additionally, a larger testing program at the NSRR reactor in Japan with high burnup fuel would uncover a similar trend of pre-DNB ruptures in high burnup test rods at lower-than-expected peak enthalpies [2]. Numerous out of pile testing programs involving a variety of innovative mechanical testing techniques have been employed in an attempt to better quantify the failure thresholds of corroded zirconium alloy cladding in these rapid heating and loading conditions [3][4][5]. While previously interim guidance had been issued, in June of 2020 the NRC officially published updated regulatory guidance to account of these pre-DNB failures in Regulatory Guide 1.236 [6]. This paper will present an independent review of the publicly available transient reactor test database on higher burnup LWR pins conducted at the CABRI and NSRR reactors as well as review of a selection of published out of pile mechanical testing methods. The purpose of the review is to determine how well the new regulatory limits are supported by experimental data. The review will identify if additional transient reactor tests could provide additional support for the NRC guidance or identify the need for revisions. The evaluation will consider how far the existing database can be extrapolated when considering low hydrogen zirconium alloy claddings (with and without protective coatings) containing very high burnup (> 70 MWd/kgU) UO2 fuel pellets. Finally, the authors will suggest how out of pile mechanical tests can be used in conjunction with a limited number of transient reactor tests to develop cladding specific failure thresholds in RIA type transients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework.

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST ''Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment'' (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, ''GDSA Framework'', for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. ''GDSA Framework'' is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-20SN01030403) level 3 milestone — ''Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework'' (M3SF-20SN010304032). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY20, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of ''GDSA Framework''. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF- 2051\101030404), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-2051\101030405), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-20SN01030406). This report builds on developments reported in previous ''GDSA Framework'' milestones, particularly M2SF- 19SNO1030403.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical Property Assessment of Unirradiated Cladding After Exposure to Time at Temperature

Light water reactors in the United States are operated within inherent safety limits designed to account for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs). Unlike more severe reactor transients, these events permit the potential reuse of reactor cladding, highlighting the nuanced role of thresholds in influencing reactor efficiency compared to design-basis or beyond-design-basis transient conditions. The threshold designated for AOO peak cladding and fuel temperatures are currently grounded around thermal hydraulic limits such as surpassing the critical heat flux (CHF), rather than in fuel-cladding material performance. This CHF criterion therefore represents a conservative approach to AOO transients during the reactor lifetime. Extending this threshold to higher temperatures than CHF can result in additional operation efficiency gains. Here, a material performance-based approach is assessed to better understand the physical material limits of short time scale exposures to elevated temperatures. This approach, termed time at temperature (t@T), references fuel cladding microstructural and mechanical response to rapid temperature transients in absence of radiation damage. The results of this work are expected to help identify margin for the United States reactor fleet, which could be utilized to increase operational efficiencies through decreased reactor outages.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Graphite Degradation due to Molten Salt Infiltration and Wear

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising next-generation reactor design, with graphite serving as a moderator and/or reflector in several designs. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, a technical understanding of the structural integrity of graphite in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report presents a modeling-based evaluation of graphite degradation in MSR environments, focusing on the effects of salt infiltration in fuel salt-based designs and surface wear in pebble bed reactor designs. The objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the structural integrity challenges posed by these degradation mechanisms and to provide a framework for assessing graphite behavior in MSRs. The first part of the report investigates the phenomenon of molten salt infiltration into graphite. This infiltration occurs when molten salt permeates the interconnected pore structure of the graphite moderator, driven by factors such as pressure differentials and the physical properties of both the salt and graphite. The infiltration process is influenced by characteristics of the pore structure, viscosity of the molten salt, and the interfacial energies between the graphite, salt, and the atmosphere within the graphite pore. Utilizing a coupled multiphysics modeling approach with Grizzly software, the study evaluates the stress induced by internal heat sources due to infiltration, which can lead to structural concerns. This evaluation is crucial for understanding how infiltration affects the mechanical integrity of graphite components in MSRs. The study considers the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite stringer geometry due to the availability of relevant data. Through detailed finite element analysis, the study examines stress distributions at varying infiltration percentages, revealing that stress levels increase with higher amounts of infiltration. Rare-event simulations, using the parallel subset simulation (PSS) framework, further quantify the failure probabilities under input uncertainties, with a user-specified failure metric. The PSS framework also identifies critical input parameters that significantly affect the stress values, including infiltration amount, thermal conductivity, and power density. Additionally, considering realistic reactor scenarios, the analysis was performed to account for the combined effects of radiation and infiltration, and modeling strategies on how to analyze new reactor designs or new graphite grades are discussed. The second part of the report focuses on wear mechanisms in pebble bed-based MSRs. As graphite fuel pebbles interact with the graphite reflector block, wear can result in material loss and the formation of surface defects, which may act as stress concentrators. A similar multiphysics modeling framework is employed to assess the impact of wear on the structural integrity of graphite components. This study considers a generic fluoride-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) design due to the availability of comprehensive data. Worst-case scenario dimensions of the reflector blocks were analyzed under thermal and radiation conditions. Subsequently, wear in the form of idealized pits and grooves is modeled on the inner surface of the graphite block, with the maximum stress from previous simulations. The simulations show that groove-type defects are more detrimental than pits, leading to higher stress concentrations. Considering worst-case simulation scenarios and experimental wear rates, it was determined that the formation of a surface defect critical enough to affect the stress may not be possible in a gFHR design. Overall, the findings of this research contribute to the development of robust modeling tools for predicting graphite behavior under various operational conditions in MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Interface Band Alignment in Epitaxial SrTiO 3 /GaAs Heterojunctions

Recent concerns surrounding climate change and the contribution of fossil fuels to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have sparked interest and advancements in renewable energy sources including wind, solar, and hydroelectricity. These energy sources, often referred to as “clean energy”, generate no operational onsite GHG emissions. They also offer the potential for clean hydrogen production through water electrolysis, presenting a viable solution to create an environmentally friendly alternative energy carrier with the potential to decarbonize industrial processes reliant on hydrogen. To conduct a full life cycle analysis, it is crucial to account for the embodied emissions associated with renewable and nuclear power generation plants as they can significantly impact the GHG emissions linked to hydrogen production and its derived products. In this work, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the embodied emissions associated with solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, hydro, and nuclear electricity. We investigated the implications of including plant-embodied emissions in the overall emission estimates of electrolysis hydrogen production and subsequently on the production of synthetic ammonia, methanol, and Fischer– Tropsch (FT) fuels. Results show that average embodied GHG emissions of solar PV, wind, hydro, and nuclear electricity generation in the United States (U.S.) were estimated to be 37, 9.8, 7.2, and 0.3 g CO 2 e/kWh, respectively. Life cycle GHG emissions of electrolytic hydrogen produced from solar PV, wind, and hydroelectricity were estimated as 2.1, 0.6, and 0.4 kg of CO 2 e/kg of H 2 , respectively, in contrast to the zero-emissions often used when the embodied emissions in their construction were excluded. Average life cycle emission estimates (CO 2 e/kg) of synthetic ammonia, methanol, and FT-fuel from solar PV electricity are increased by 5.5, 16, and 49 times, respectively, compared to the case when embodied emissions are excluded. This change also depends on the local irradiance for solar power, which can result in a further increase of GHG emissions by 35–41% in areas of low irradiance or reduce GHG emissions by 21–25% in areas with higher irradiance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of an ICS Ransomware Testbed: Scenarios, Variants, and Evaluation Methods

Ransomware attacks on Industrial Control Systems (ICS) have emerged as a formidable threat to the United States’ critical infrastructure, eliciting grave concerns regarding national security. In March 2023, the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) unveiled its 2022 Internet Crime Report, highlighting a concerning 870 complaints related to ransomware impacting U.S. critical infrastructure. Of the country's 16 critical infrastructure sectors, 14 encountered at least one ransomware attack. Notably, while the Healthcare and Public Health sector suffered the most, reporting 210 attacks, sectors pivotal to ICS networks and governmental organizations were also targeted: the Defense Industrial Base reported 1 attack, Water and Wastewater Systems 3, Chemical 19, Energy 15, Government Facilities 115, and Critical Manufacturing 157. For instance, a ransomware attack on a major chemical company could jeopardize not only its production but also pose environmental risks should systems controlling hazardous materials be compromised. In 2022, three ransomware variants predominantly targeted U.S. critical infrastructure: HIVE, with 87 attacks; ALPHV/BlackCat, with 114; and LOCKBIT, with 149. Several cyber-attacks, such as the MOVEit data breach in May 2023 and the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack in May 2021, have been so impactful that they commanded national attention. The DarkSide hacking group's assault on the Colonial Pipeline, initiated on May 6th, 2021, stands as one of the most substantial and publicly acknowledged cyber-attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure. The group exploited an exposed Virtual Private Network (VPN) password, paving the way for initial intrusion and subsequent data theft. A mere day later, DarkSide unleashed a ransomware attack that compromised vital accounting and billing systems, prompting an immediate shutdown of the pipeline to mitigate further ransomware proliferation across its network. This crisis spurred a robust response from the U.S. president and regulators, culminating in a national emergency declaration related to the pipeline shutdown on May 9th, 2021. This incident mirrors the 2017 NotPetya ransomware attack that significantly impacted the shipping giant Maersk, highlighting an urgent need for fortified cybersecurity across various industries. Future incidents, akin to the Colonial Pipeline attack, could potentially be mitigated—or entirely averted—should government agencies and private entities scrutinize system vulnerabilities, exploring various ransomware types and entry points. Proactive measures, such as conducting experiments on VPN accounts or auditing passwords to pinpoint duplicate usage across diverse systems and software, might illuminate feasible entry points and vulnerability zones within an organization's systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Differential Measurement of Circumstellar Extinction for AA Tau’s 2011 Dimming Event

AA Tau is a classical T Tauri star with a highly inclined, warped circumstellar disk. For decades, AA Tau exhibited photometric and spectroscopic variabilities that were successfully modeled as occultations of the primary star by circumstellar material. In 2011, AA Tau entered an extended faint state, presumably due to enhanced levels of circumstellar dust. We use two sets of contemporaneous optical–near-IR (NIR) spectra of AA Tau, obtained in 2008 and 2014 December, to directly measure the wavelength-dependent extinction associated with the dust enhancement driving AA Tau’s 2011 optical fade. Taken alone, AA Tau’s apparent optical–NIR increased extinction curve cannot be fit well with standard extinction laws. At optical wavelengths, AA Tau’s dimming event is consistent with predictions of common extinction models for an increase of A {sub V} = 2, but no such model reproduces AA Tau’s color–color excess at NIR wavelengths. We show that veiling emission accounts for the apparent anomalous NIR extinction: after including this veiling flux, AA Tau’s dimming event is consistent with a standard A {sub V} = 2 extinction law across the full optical–NIR range. We also report an increase in AA Tau’s mid-IR flux since its 2011 fade and suggest that an increase in the height of AA Tau’s inner disk is the most likely explanation for both the IR brightening and the additional extinction along the line of sight. In addition to informing our understanding of AA Tau, this analysis demonstrates that caution should be exercised when inferring extinction (and stellar parameters) from the NIR color–color excess of young stars with measurable NIR veiling fluxes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stakeholder-Engaged Structured Decision Making for the Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Mission - 20501

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) environmental legacy cleanup program requires decisions to be made for environmental remediation, decommissioning and disposal or management of radioactive waste. This legacy cleanup program was established to address groundwater contamination, material disposal areas (MDAs) that have been used to dispose of radioactive and other waste material, and 'aggregate areas' that might produce radioactive or other chemical waste as a result of remediation activities. The LANL site is regulated for environmental concerns under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). However, some parts of LANL, such as material disposal area G (MDA G), have disposed of radioactive waste under DOE Order 435.1, and are subject to other regulations. For example, decommissioning the remote-handled TRU material stored in 33 shafts at MDA G falls under EPA's 40 CFR 191. Collectively, the regulations are all aimed in the same direction of finding the best solution, either through constructs such as 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA), considering balancing factors as opposed to only cost and human health risk, and, under EPA regulations such as RCRA and NEPA, evaluating impact from all chemicals and both human health and ecological endpoints. Despite the basic goals and objectives of the regulations or their guidance, the main challenge is in their implementation. Arguably perhaps, but really in principle, all of these (and similar) regulations are asking for a decision analysis to be performed. Implementation challenges encountered have included lack of understanding of decision analysis in the industry, lack of effective stakeholder engagement in the decision analysis process, and lack of appreciation of the need to separate value judgments from science, the latter leading to developing conservative, or protective, science-based models. Conservative models lead to poor solutions, lack of effective stakeholder engagement leads to long drawn out protracted approaches to finding a solution (which also might never be found with this approach), and lack of understanding of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics causes poor models to be built, which creates unfortunate situations of 'garbage in, garbage out' becoming the basis for decision making. Stakeholder-engaged structured decision making (SDM) is an approach to solving problems that relies on the theory of decision science to involve stakeholders in the decision-making process. This approach incorporates stakeholder values using a scientifically rigorous methodology that separates value judgments from science in a way that helps avoid the pitfalls of biased, protective, or conservative modeling. This approach has its foundation in Keeney's 1992 treatise on value-focused thinking [1]. Keeney advocated a paradigm shift in decision making based on the idea that the standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards. The standard approach of focusing first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values results in a reactive approach with the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of the core values that have meaning to stakeholders. This paradigm shift effectively engages all stakeholders in the decision-making process while using a values focused thinking approach that can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and generate solutions that are related directly to values and objectives as identified by stakeholders. There are, perhaps, two overarching reasons why SDM can be used to benefit LANL's environmental legacy cleanup. Some of LANL's remaining waste management and environmental management problems are challenging and complex (for example, the Cr and RDX plumes, and MDAs) and while the traditional approach has, arguably, worked well for relatively simple risk-based problems, it cannot, or should not, be applied to more complex problems if the most effective and efficient solutions are desired. The second reason is cost. This has perhaps become more critical since publication of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that DoE's environmental liability is considered a high-risk concern for the nation [2]. The focus of SDM is on structuring solutions to decision risk problems by first addressing stakeholder and decision maker values and subsequently developing decision objectives and ways to measure those objectives, preference weighting across objectives, identifying decision alternatives that best achieve those values, and characterizing uncertainty in predictions of the measures. Because a complete decision model is created using SDM, it can be evaluated to find the main elements of the model that drive, or predict, the best solution. This approach creates complete decision models that are transparent, traceable, reproducible and technically defensible. The science behind SDM, or decision analysis, is well founded, yet it is not unusual to see ad hoc approaches to decision making implemented under various environmental regulations that are pertinent to the LANL site, including NEPA, RCRA and DOE Order 435.1. Such ad hoc approaches are often not transparent or traceable, and lack reproducibility and technical defensibility. The LANL legacy cleanup program has embarked on using SDM to address the complex problems that remain. Stakeholder meetings have been held, and a prototype version of the stakeholder value system has been developed. Further meetings are expected in the future to address specific project needs. This is a long-term endeavor considering the complex environmental problems faced by DOE EM in Los Alamos (EM-LA), and careful planning, consideration of stakeholder value systems, and engagement with stakeholders throughout the SDM process is expected to lead to a successful endpoint. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stress-Induced Pore Water Pressures in The Vadose Zone Beneath a Composite-Lined Landfill - 20029

A finite-element model was developed to evaluate mechanisms contributing to positive pore pressures measured with sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility, a composite-lined mixed waste disposal facility operated by the US Department of Energy. The geological buffer is a 3-m-thick engineered fine-textured layer directly beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility's composite liner, and above the groundwater table. The model accounts for changes in pore water pressure resulting from (i) loading imposed by waste placed on the overlying liner, (ii) moistening of the geological buffer due to equilibration with the underlying geological materials, and (iii) fluctuations in the elevation of the underlying groundwater table. Pore water pressures predicted by the model are in good agreement with pore water pressures measured in the field. The predictions confirm that positive pore water pressures recorded by the sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer are excess pore water pressures induced by the vertical normal stress imposed by waste placed on the liner, and are not due to a rise in the groundwater table. Simulations also showed that two additional years of filling would further increase the pore water pressure without any change in elevation of the groundwater table. The geological buffer remained unsaturated during the simulation, with a B-coefficient (parameter indicative of the degree of saturation) similar to that computed from the field-measured pore water pressures and waste filling records. Larger increases in pore water pressure were observed when the geological buffer was assumed to have higher initial saturation, as was observed in the field data. Incorporating seasonal fluctuations in the groundwater table beneath the geological buffer in the model resulted in predictions of small seasonal oscillation in the pore water pressure at the measurement location, similar to seasonal oscillations observed in the field. Predictions made with the model indicate that the dissipation of the excess pore water pressures will occur over decades due to the low hydraulic conductivity of the geological buffer material. (authors)

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