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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Constraining Rate Coefficients in Fuel Oxidation Mechanisms Using Genetic Algorithm Optimization

Accurate fuel oxidation mechanisms can enable predictive capabilities that aid in advancing combustion technologies. High-level computational kinetics can yield reasonable rate coefficients with uncertainties, in some cases, below a factor of 2. Computed rate coefficients can be constrained further by optimizing against experimental data. Here, we explore the application of genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to constrain computed rate coefficients in complex fuel oxidation mechanisms in conjunction with temperature-dependent species mole fractions from jet-stirred reactor (JSR) measurements. Cyclohexane is a model candidate for understanding the reactivity of cyclic fuels. In this work, we optimize the rate coefficients of the most recent literature cyclohexane mechanism, which incorporates theoretically computed rate coefficients for the reaction networks stemming from the first and second O 2 addition pathways, against the experimental results of two separate literature JSR studies. Optimization consistency is evaluated by carrying out three GA optimizations: fitting to the temperature-dependent species mole fractions in each JSR experiment separately and simultaneously fitting the species mole fractions in both experiments. Local sensitivity analyses are used to identify five influential low-temperature oxidation reactions for optimization. Although the three optimizations do not yield identical rate coefficients, the direction of change in all five rate coefficients is consistent among the three optimizations. Performance of the models from the three optimizations is assessed against literature ignition delay times with differences in the level of agreement observed among the different optimizations. In conclusion, comparisons are made with our recent optimization work of a cyclopentane oxidation master-equation model against time-resolved species concentrations, and insights and improvements of the strategy for constraining rate coefficients using GA optimization are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Iterative Workflow for Quantification and Minimization of Reduced Chemistry-Induced Uncertainties in Reacting Flow Simulation

Reduced chemistry models mitigate computational cost but introduce two sources of uncertainties in reacting flow simulation, including chemical information loss due to model reduction, and approximation errors due to non-optimal projection. We present an iterative workflow for quantification and minimization of reduced chemistry-induced uncertainties in reacting flow simulations.

chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finding a common ground for RCM experiments. Part B: Benchmark study on ethanol ignition

Rapid compression machines (RCMs) are widely used to investigate gas phase reaction kinetics of various kind of fuels at application relevant conditions. In principle, the operation of an RCM is based on the idea of compressing a homogenous pre-mixed fuel-air mixture by a piston. Usually creviced pistons ensure a homogenous adiabatic core in the center of the reaction chamber which permits the assumption of an isentropic relation between the measured pressure and gas temperature. Despite the ideal core gas compression, non-ideal effects such as heat loss, differences in the compression behavior, and ultimately non-standardized design and operation of rapid compression machines lead to different experimental results in different facilities at nominally the same end of compression conditions. In this study ignition delay times of ethanol are investigated at four different conditions in five independent RCMs. As expected, the raw results of the different facilities indeed show notable differences at the same end of compression conditions. However, according to the adiabatic core hypothesis the agreement between kinetic simulations and experiments should be consistent for all facilities provided that the facility effects are correctly accounted for. To elaborate upon this hypothesis, a kinetic mechanism is optimized to reflect the experimental results of all facilities. In the end, the optimized mechanism predicts all experimental data within the expected uncertainty. This confirms the reliability of RCM experiments for kinetic investigations and the validity of the effective volume approach in simulating RCM data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning-Based Demand Response in Grid Interactive Buildings via Gaussian Processes

This paper presents a predictive controller for a grid-interactive multi-zone building where the temperature dynamics are learned via Gaussian Process (GP) regression. We investigate the development of a learning-based predictive control with two main objectives: (i) continuously learn the temperature dynamics of the building based on data; and, (ii) use the learned dynamics to solve a multi-objective predictive control problem to guarantee occupants' comfort and energy efficiency during normal conditions and demand response events. We leverage the probabilistic non-parametric properties of GPs to estimate the (unknown) non-linear temperature dynamics of the building and to incorporate the uncertainty of those predictions in a multi-objective optimization problem. The GP-based predictive control is solved via a zero-order primal-dual projected-gradient algorithm. We evaluate numerically the performance of the proposed controller using a five-zone commercial building.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2022

Semi-Automated, Object-Based Tomography of Dislocation Structures

The characterization of the three-dimensional arrangement of dislocations is important for many analyses in materials science. Dislocation tomography in transmission electron microscopy is conventionally accomplished through intensity-based reconstruction algorithms. Although such methods work successfully, a disadvantage is that they require many images to be collected over a large tilt range. Here, we present an alternative, semi-automated object-based approach that reduces the data collection requirements by drawing on the prior knowledge that dislocations are line objects. Our approach consists of three steps: (1) initial extraction of dislocation line objects from the individual frames, (2) alignment and matching of these objects across the frames in the tilt series, and (3) tomographic reconstruction to determine the full three-dimensional configuration of the dislocations. Drawing on innovations in graph theory, we employ a node-line segment representation for the dislocation lines and a novel arc-length mapping scheme to relate the dislocations to each other across the images in the tilt series. We demonstrate the method for a dataset collected from a dislocation network imaged by diffraction-contrast scanning transmission electron microscopy. Based on these results and a detailed uncertainty analysis for the algorithm, we discuss opportunities for optimizing data collection and further automating the method.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clustering of electromagnetic showers and particle interactions with graph neural networks in liquid argon time projection chambers

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) are a class of detectors that produce high resolution images of charged particles within their sensitive volume. In these images, the clustering of distinct particles into superstructures is of central importance to the current and future neutrino physics program. Electromagnetic (EM) activity typically exhibits spatially detached fragments of varying morphology and orientation that are challenging to efficiently assemble using traditional algorithms. Similarly, particles that are spatially removed from each other in the detector may originate from a common interaction. Graph neural networks (GNNs) were developed in recent years to find correlations between objects embedded in an arbitrary space. The graph particle aggregator (GrapPA) first leverages GNNs to predict the adjacency matrix of EM shower fragments and to identify the origin of showers, i.e., primary fragments. On the PILArNet public LArTPC simulation dataset, the algorithm achieves a shower clustering accuracy characterized by a mean purity of 99.4%, a mean efficiency of 99.6% and a primary identification accuracy of 99.8%. It yields a relative shower energy uncertainty of (4.1 + 1.4 / $\sqrt{\text{E(GeV)})}$% and a shower direction uncertainty of (2.1/ $\sqrt{\text{E(GeV)})}$°. Finally, the optimized algorithm is then applied to the related task of clustering particle instances into interactions and yields a mean purity of 99.8% and a mean efficiency of 99.5% for an interaction density of $\mathcal{O}(1)$ m –3 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Power Consumption Modeling for Commercial Buildings Using Logistic Regression Markov Chain

The total energy consumed by buildings takes up to 40% of U.S. energy use, in which a large portion is contributed by commercial buildings. Building performance optimization is desirable but requires accurate building models with uncertainties taken into account. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic modeling method using Logistic Regression Markov Chain (LRMC). The LRMC model enhances the performance of traditional Markov Chain (MC) models by adopting time-variant transition matrices calibrated using logistic regression with exogenous inputs. Compared with existing building models, the proposed model produces accurate multi-step modeling results with full probability distribution. The proposed probabilistic building model is tested using actual commercial building measurements and modeling performance is evaluated with two probabilisitc metrics. The results show that the LRMC model has higher accuracy than traditional MC model and Logistic Regression (LR) model in that it yields lower error scores under both evaluation metrics.

Building modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗
DOE OSTI2020

LOGOS

LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining multitask and transfer learning with deep Gaussian processes for autotuning-based performance engineering

We combine deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) with multitask and transfer learning for the performance modeling and optimization of HPC applications. Deep Gaussian processes merge the uncertainty quantification advantage of Gaussian processes (GPs) with the predictive power of deep learning. Multitask and transfer learning allow for improved learning efficiency when several similar tasks are to be learned simultaneously and when previous learned models are sought to help in the learning of new tasks, respectively. A comparison with state-of-the-art autotuners shows the advantage of our approach on two application problems. In this article, we combine DGPs with multitask and transfer learning to allow for both an improved tuning of an application parameters on problems of interest but also the prediction of parameters on any potential problem the application might encounter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpretable Deep Learning for the Earth System with Fractal Nets

Focal Area 3: Explainable AI Our confidence in the projections made by Earth System Models (ESMs) depends on understanding them to be, in some important respects, faithful representations of the Earth system. Here we present an “explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI)” method that allows us to uncover the dynamical structure of the observed and modeled Earth system, discover hidden links across wide spatiotemporal scales, target model development efforts at poorly-represented dynamics, and optimize observed or modeled data collection to maximize predictive information. Science Challenge: Dynamical system science for the Earth system poses unique challenges given the large degree of internal climate variability. Thus, tools that help us understand how ESMs succeed and fail at representing these dynamics are crucial, particularly in relation to the observed system. Furthermore, the computational and memory constraints on ESM data output motivate in situ analysis of ESM dynamics, including automatic detection of dynamical shifts. Also, of key importance are procedures that leverage ESMs to optimize observational campaigns for improving process representation, reducing structural uncertainty and improving model skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility Activities: FY2020 Progress

This report describes the credibility activities undertaken in support of Gemma code development in FY20, which include Verification & Validation (V&V), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Credibility process application. The main goal of these activities is to establish capabilities and process frameworks that can be more broadly applied to new and more advanced problems as the Gemma code development effort matures. This will provide Gemma developers and analysts with the tools needed to generate credibility evidence in support of Gemma predictions for future use cases. The FY20 Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility activities described in this report include experimental uncertainty analysis, the development and use of methods for optimal design of computer experiments, and the development of a framework for validation. These initial activities supported the development of broader credibility planning for Gemma that continued into FY21.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗