Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

Capture, storage, and re-use of liquid hydrogen boil-off for aviation and aerospace applications

Despite major interest in the use of liquid hydrogen as a fuel for aviation and aerospace sectors, loss of hydrogen through boil-off continues to be a hurdle as it causes financial loss, indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and safety concerns. Herein, we perform techno-economic analysis, calibrated with experimental measurements, to assess the use of sorbents to capture and condition hydrogen boil-off events in the range of 1.5 to 70 tonnes per day at launch sites and airports. We evaluate the direct delivery of captured boil-off to combustion engines and fuel cells, comparing against boil-off re-liquification and compression. Results indicate probable cost-effectiveness at delivered liquid hydrogen prices above 0.9 U.S. dollar ($) per kg H2 at airports, and above 10 $ per kg H2 at launch sites where 10% or more of hydrogen is lost to boil-off.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Generalizable Image Segmentation for Microstructure Characterization Through Integrated SEM and EBSD Analysis

We demonstrate generalizable semantic segmentation using minimal ground truth data. Correlated scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements of frictionstir processed 316L stainless steel plates were used to train deep learning models for grain boundary segmentation. Secondary electron (SE) imaging taken at an accelerating voltage of 10 keV correlated to EBSD-derived grain boundaries produced the best performing model. Notably, an ensemble of three models trained on a single SE image produced accurate segmentation over a series of BSE images of samples manufactured under different processing parameters, with a resultant mean absolute error in grain size of 0.34 µm. The striking generalizability of the models likely results from the similar escape depths of the SE training input and the EBSD training output and the reduced probability of dislocation artifacts appearing in the image. This finding highlights the importance of considering the physical principles behind imaging in the development of robust segmentation models for microstructure characterization.

Taufique, Mohammad Fuad Nur↗

Quantum frequency resampling

In signal processing, resampling algorithms can modify the number of resources encoding a collection of data points. Downsampling reduces the cost of storage and communication, while upsampling interpolates new data from limited one, e.g., when resizing a digital image. We present a toolset of quantum algorithms to resample data encoded in the probabilities of a quantum register, using the quantum Fourier transform to adjust the number of high-frequency encoding qubits. We discuss advantage over classical resampling algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Global heliospheric termination shock strength in the solar–interstellar interaction

A heliospheric termination shock (HTS) surrounds our Solar System at approximately 100 astronomical units from the Sun, where the expanding solar wind (SW) is compressed and heated before encountering the interstellar medium. HTS-accelerated particles govern the pressure balance with the interstellar medium, but little is known about the global properties of the HTS beyond in situ measurements from Voyager in only two directions of the sky. Here we fill this gap by extracting the HTS strength using particle-in-cell, test particle and magnetohydrodynamic simulations, constrained by Interstellar Boundary Explorer observations of energetic neutral atoms produced from HTS-accelerated particles. Our results reveal there is a higher compression near the poles during solar minimum compared with solar maximum due to the higher Mach number flow. North–south asymmetries arise from the disparate evolution of the polar coronal holes, while minimum compression near the flanks is probably due to SW slowing from mass loading over a greater distance to the HTS. The results imply a strong connection between the HTS strength and the SW and interstellar medium dynamics.

Astrophysical plasmas↗

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A single-cell atlas of the bobtail squid visual and nervous system highlights molecular principles of convergent evolution

Abstract The cephalopod and vertebrate visual systems are a textbook example of convergent evolution with unknown molecular underpinnings. Here we characterize 98,537 single-cell transcriptomes in the bobtail squidEuprymna berryito understand how the cephalopod retina and optic lobes relate to the vertebrate retina. We confirm the overall relative simplicity of the cephalopod retina but identify two related photoreceptor cell subtypes expressing distinct r-opsins. By contrast, the adult optic lobe contains a diverse repertoire of neuronal and glial cell types, with a predominance of dopaminergic neurons. We show that cephalopod-specific gene duplicates probably contributed to this cell type diversification. Comparing neuronal cell population in the optic lobes of hatchlings and adults, we reveal a switch towards dopaminergic neurotransmitter usage with age, indicative of a maturation process. We further identify an FMRF-amide-based retrograde signal from the optic lobe towards the retina that supports the functional analogy of the cephalopod optic lobe cortex and the vertebrate inner retina in visual signal processing from a molecular standpoint. Finally, comparative analyses with vertebrate and arthropod cells suggest a scenario in which two photoreceptor types and two neuronal populations may have already been present in the eye of the bilaterian ancestor.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Formation of late-generation atmospheric compounds inhibited by rapid deposition

Reactive organic carbon species are important fuel for atmospheric chemical reactions, including the formation of secondary organic aerosol. However, in parallel to atmospheric oxidation processes, deposition can remove compounds from the atmosphere and impact downstream environments. To understand the impact of deposition on atmospheric oxidation, we present a framework for predicting and visualizing the fate of a molecule on the basis of the physicochemical properties of compounds (Henry’s law constant, vapour pressure and reaction rate constants), which are used to estimate timescales for oxidation and deposition. Further, by implementing our deposition rates in chemical models, we show that deposition substantially suppresses atmospheric reactivity and aerosol formation by removing early-generation products and preventing the formation of large fractions (up to 90%) of downstream, late-generation compounds. Deposition is frequently missing in the laboratory experiments and detailed chemical modelling, which probably biases our understanding of atmospheric composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mineralogical evidence for hydrothermal alteration of Bennu samples

Samples of asteroid (101955) Bennu delivered by the OSIRIS-REx mission offer the opportunity to study pristine planetary materials unchanged by exposure to the terrestrial environment. Here we use a combination of X-ray diffraction and various electron microscopy techniques to explore the detailed mineralogy of Bennu samples and determine the alteration history of the planetesimal protolith from which they originated. The samples consist largely of hydrated sheet-silicate minerals, namely nanoscale serpentine and saponite of varied grain size, which are decorated with micro- to nanoscale Fe-sulfides, magnetite and carbonates. We observe sheet silicates parallel and normal to sulfide surfaces and as inclusions in sulfides; sulfur-rich veins transecting the sheet-silicate matrix; zoned carbonates and phosphates and sulfide and magnetite grains exhibiting embayment. The mineralogical evidence indicates alteration of accreted minerals by a fluid that evolved with time, leading to etching, dissolution and reprecipitation. Sulfide compositions indicate alteration at ~25 °C, similar to conditions inferred for asteroid (162173) Ryugu and Ivuna-type (CI) chondrite meteorites. The fluid probably evolved from neutral to alkaline, culminating with the precipitation of highly soluble salts. We conclude that Bennu’s protolith comprised mainly nanometre to micrometre silicates, with fewer chondrules and calcium–aluminium-rich inclusions than those of most chondrite groups.

Zega, T J↗

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

Origins of enhanced oxygen reduction activity of transition metal nitrides

Transition metal nitride (TMN-) based materials have recently emerged as promising non-precious-metal-containing electrocatalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in alkaline media. However, the lack of fundamental understanding of the oxide surface has limited insights into structure–(re)activity relationships and rational catalyst design. Here, in this work, we demonstrate how a well-defined TMN can dictate/control the as-formed oxide surface and the resulting ORR electrocatalytic activity. Structural characterization of MnN nanocuboids revealed that an electrocatalytically active Mn 3 O 4 shell grew epitaxially on the MnN core, with an expansive strain along the [010] direction to the surface Mn 3 O 4 . The strained Mn 3 O 4 shell on the MnN core exhibited an intrinsic activity that was over 300% higher than that of pure Mn 3 O 4 . A combined electrochemical and computational investigation indicated/suggested that the enhancement probably originates from a more hydroxylated oxide surface resulting from the expansive strain. This work establishes a clear and definitive atomistic picture of the nitride/oxide interface and provides a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the structure–reactivity relationship in TMNs, critical for other catalytic interfaces for different electrochemical processes.

electrocatalysis↗

Global variability in atmospheric new particle formation mechanisms

A key challenge in aerosol pollution studies and climate change assessment is to understand how atmospheric aerosol particles are initially formed. Although new particle formation (NPF) mechanisms have been described at specific sites, in most regions, such mechanisms remain uncertain to a large extent because of the limited ability of atmospheric models to simulate critical NPF processes. Here we synthesize molecular-level experiments to develop comprehensive representations of 11 NPF mechanisms and the complex chemical transformation of precursor gases in a fully coupled global climate model. Combined simulations and observations show that the dominant NPF mechanisms are distinct worldwide and vary with region and altitude. Previously neglected or underrepresented mechanisms involving organics, amines, iodine oxoacids and HNO 3 probably dominate NPF in most regions with high concentrations of aerosols or large aerosol radiative forcing; such regions include oceanic and human-polluted continental boundary layers, as well as the upper troposphere over rainforests and Asian monsoon regions. These underrepresented mechanisms also play notable roles in other areas, such as the upper troposphere of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Accordingly, NPF accounts for different fractions (10–80%) of the nuclei on which cloud forms at 0.5% supersaturation over various regions in the lower troposphere. The comprehensive simulation of global NPF mechanisms can help improve estimation and source attribution of the climate effects of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m –2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N 2 O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An evaporite sequence from ancient brine recorded in Bennu samples

Evaporation or freezing of water-rich fluids with dilute concentrations of dissolved salts can produce brines, as observed in closed basins on Earth and detected by remote sensing on icy bodies in the outer Solar System. The mineralogical evolution of these brines is well understood in regard to terrestrial environments, but poorly constrained for extraterrestrial systems owing to a lack of direct sampling. Here we report the occurrence of salt minerals in samples of the asteroid (101955) Bennu returned by the OSIRIS-REx mission. These include sodium-bearing phosphates and sodium-rich carbonates, sulfates, chlorides and fluorides formed during evaporation of a late-stage brine that existed early in the history of Bennu’s parent body. Discovery of diverse salts would not be possible without mission sample return and careful curation and storage, because these decompose with prolonged exposure to Earth’s atmosphere. Similar brines probably still occur in the interior of icy bodies Ceres and Enceladus, as indicated by spectra or measurement of sodium carbonate on the surface or in plumes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structured ionized winds shooting out from a quasar at relativistic speeds

Evidence indicates that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) exist at the centres of most galaxies. Their mass correlates with the galactic bulge mass, suggesting a coevolution with their host galaxies, most likely through powerful winds. X-ray observations have detected highly ionized winds outflowing at sub-relativistic speeds from the accretion disks around SMBHs. However, the limited spectral resolution of present X-ray instruments has left the physical structure and location of the winds poorly understood, hindering accurate estimates of their kinetic power. Here, in this study, the first X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observation of the luminous quasar PDS 456 is reported. The high-resolution spectrometer Resolve aboard XRISM enabled the discovery of five discrete velocity components outflowing at 20–30% of the speed of light. This demonstrates that the wind structure is highly inhomogeneous, which probably consists of up to a million clumps. The mass outflow rate is estimated to be 60–300 solar masses per year, with the wind kinetic power exceeding the Eddington luminosity limit. Compared with the galaxy-scale outflows, the kinetic power is more than three orders of magnitude larger, whereas the momentum flux is ten times larger. These estimates disfavour both energy-driven and momentum-driven outflow models. This suggests that such wind activity occurs in less than 10% of the quasar phase and/or that its energy/momentum is not efficiently transferred to the galaxy-scale outflows owing to the clumpiness of the wind and the interstellar medium.

Audard, Marc [Univ. of Geneva, Versoix (Switzerlan↗

Traceable random numbers from a non-local quantum advantage

The unpredictability of random numbers is fundamental to both digital security and applications that fairly distribute resources. However, existing random number generators have limitations—the generation processes cannot be fully traced, audited and certified to be unpredictable. The algorithmic steps used in pseudorandom number generators are auditable, but they cannot guarantee that their outputs were a priori unpredictable given knowledge of the initial seed. Device-independent quantum random number generators can ensure that the source of randomness was unknown beforehand, but the steps used to extract the randomness are vulnerable to tampering. Here we demonstrate a fully traceable random number generation protocol based on device-independent techniques. Our protocol extracts randomness from unpredictable non-local quantum correlations, and uses distributed intertwined hash chains to cryptographically trace and verify the extraction process. This protocol forms the basis for a public traceable and certifiable quantum randomness beacon that we have launched. Over the first 40 days of operation, we completed the protocol 7,434 out of 7,454 attempts—a success rate of 99.7%. Each time the protocol succeeded, the beacon emitted a pulse of 512 bits of traceable randomness. The bits are certified to be uniform with error multiplied by actual success probability bounded by 2−64. Further, the generation of certifiable and traceable randomness represents a public service that operates with an entanglement-derived advantage over comparable classical approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spin squeezing in an ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres in diamond

Spin-squeezed states provide a seminal example of how the structure of quantum mechanical correlations can be controlled to produce metrologically useful entanglement. These squeezed states have been demonstrated in a wide variety of quantum systems ranging from atoms in optical cavities to trapped ion crystals. By contrast, despite their numerous advantages as practical sensors, spin ensembles in solid-state materials have yet to be controlled with sufficient precision to generate targeted entanglement such as spin squeezing. Here we report the experimental demonstration of spin squeezing in a solid-state spin system. Our experiments are performed on a strongly interacting ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy colour centres in diamond at room temperature, and squeezing (−0.50 ± 0.13 dB) below the noise of uncorrelated spins is generated by the native magnetic dipole–dipole interaction between nitrogen–vacancy centres. To generate and detect squeezing in a solid-state spin system, we overcome several challenges. First, we develop an approach, using interaction-enabled noise spectroscopy, to characterize the quantum projection noise in our system without directly resolving the spin probability distribution. Second, noting that the random positioning of spin defects severely limits the generation of spin squeezing, we implement a pair of strategies aimed at isolating the dynamics of a relatively ordered sub-ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres. Furthermore, our results open the door to entanglement-enhanced metrology using macroscopic ensembles of optically active spins in solids.

Atomic and molecular physics↗

Disentangling multiple gas kinematic drivers in the Perseus galaxy cluster

Galaxy clusters, the Universe’s largest halo structures, are filled with an X-ray-emitting gas with a temperature between 10 million and 100 million degrees. Their evolution is shaped by energetic processes such as feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and mergers with other cosmic structures. The imprints of these processes on gas kinematics remain largely unknown, restricting our understanding of energy conversion within clusters4. High-resolution spectral mapping with the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observatory offers a way forward. Here we present XRISM kinematic measurements of the Perseus cluster, radially covering the extent of its cool core. We find direct evidence for at least two dominant drivers of gas motions operating on distinct physical scales: a small-scale driver in the inner approximately 60 kpc, probably associated with the SMBH feedback; and a large-scale driver in the outer core, powered by mergers. This finding suggests that, during the active phase, SMBH feedback drives gas motions, which, if fully dissipated into heat, could have a substantial role in offsetting radiative cooling losses in the Perseus core. Furthermore, our study underscores the necessity of kinematic mapping observations of extended sources to robustly characterize the velocity fields and their role in the evolution of massive halos. It further offers a kinematic diagnostic for SMBH feedback models.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗