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Detailed geomorphometric data of long lava flows (widths, thicknesses, and slopes, indexed by downflow position) from both previously published and new sources are subjected to statistical and analytical techniques. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.
Terrain Awareness and Warning Systems (TAWS) and Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) provide pilots with displays of stored geo-spatial data (e.g. terrain, obstacles, and/or features). As comprehensive validation is impractical, these databases typically have no quantifiable level of integrity. This lack of a quantifiable integrity level is one of the constraints that has limited certification and operational approval of TAWS/SVS to "advisory-only" systems for civil aviation. Previous work demonstrated the feasibility of using a real-time monitor to bound database integrity by using downward-looking remote sensing technology (i.e. radar altimeters). This paper describes an extension of the integrity monitor concept to include a forward-looking sensor to cover additional classes of terrain database faults and to reduce the exposure time associated with integrity threats. An operational concept is presented that combines established feature extraction techniques with a statistical assessment of similarity measures between the sensed and stored features using principles from classical detection theory. Finally, an implementation is presented that uses existing commercial-off-the-shelf weather radar sensor technology.
The Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA) is a finite element based computational method for high frequency vibration and acoustic analysis. The EFEA solves with finite elements governing differential equations for energy variables. These equations are developed from wave equations. Recently, an EFEA method for computing high frequency vibration of structures either in vacuum or in contact with a dense fluid has been presented. The presence of fluid loading has been considered through added mass and radiation damping. The EFEA developments were validated by comparing EFEA results to solutions obtained by very dense conventional finite element models and solutions from classical techniques such as statistical energy analysis (SEA) and the modal decomposition method for bodies of revolution. EFEA results have also been compared favorably with test data for the vibration and the radiated noise generated by a large scale submersible vehicle. The primary variable in EFEA is defined as the time averaged over a period and space averaged over a wavelength energy density. A joint matrix computed from the power transmission coefficients is utilized for coupling the energy density variables across any discontinuities, such as change of plate thickness, plate/stiffener junctions etc. When considering the high frequency vibration of a periodically stiffened plate or cylinder, the flexural wavelength is smaller than the interval length between two periodic stiffeners, therefore the stiffener stiffness can not be smeared by computing an equivalent rigidity for the plate or cylinder. The periodic stiffeners must be regarded as coupling components between periodic units. In this paper, Periodic Structure (PS) theory is utilized for computing the coupling joint matrix and for accounting for the periodicity characteristics.
Simulated aeroelastic responses of a nonlinear pitch and plunge apparatus are analyzed using various statistical signal processing techniques including higher-order spectral methods. A MATLAB version of the Nonlinear Aeroelastic Testbed Apparatus (NATA) at the Texas A&M University is used to generate various aeroelastic response data including limit cycle oscillations (LCO). Traditional and higher-order spectral (HOS) methods are applied to the simulated aeroelastic responses. Higher-order spectral methods are used to identify critical signatures that indicate the transition from linear to nonlinear (LCO) aeroelastic behavior.
This document presents a preliminary evaluation the utility of the FAA Safety Analytics Thesaurus (SAT) utility in enhancing automated document processing applications under development at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). Current development efforts at ARC are described, including overviews of the statistical machine learning techniques that have been investigated. An analysis of opportunities for applying thesaurus knowledge to improving algorithm performance is then presented.
A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.
High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.
The Proton Upset Monte Carlo Simulation (PROPSET) program calculates the frequency of on-orbit upsets in computer chips (for given orbits such as Low Earth Orbit, Lunar Orbit, and the like) from proton bombardment based on the results of heavy ion testing alone. The software simulates the bombardment of modern microelectronic components (computer chips) with high-energy (.200 MeV) protons. The nuclear interaction of the proton with the silicon of the chip is modeled and nuclear fragments from this interaction are tracked using Monte Carlo techniques to produce statistically accurate predictions.
The physical activity guidelines (PAG) established by the US Dept. of Health and Human Services in 2008 is consistent with a rating of >/= 6 on the 11-point NASA Physical Activity Status Scale (PASS). Wier, et. al. developed non-exercise models for estimating VO2(sub max) from a combination of PASS, age, gender and either waist girth (WG) (R = 0.810, SEE= 4.799 ml/kg/min), %Fat (R = 0. 817, SEE = 4.716 ml/kg/min) or BMI (R = 0.802, SEE = 4.900 ml . kg-1. min -1 ). PURPOSE: to develop non-exercise models to estimate VO2max from age, gender, body composition (WG, %Fat, BMI) and PASS dichotomized at meets or does not meet the PAG (PAG-PASS), and to compare the accuracy of the PAG-PASS models with the models using the 11-point PASS. METHODS: 2417 men and 384 women were measured for VO2max by indirect calorimetry (RER >1.1); age (yr), gender by M = 1, W = 0; WG at the umbilicus; %fat by skin-folds, BMI by weight (kg) divided by height squared (m 2 ) , and PAGPASS by PASS < 6 = 0 and =/> 6 = 1. RESULTS: Three models were developed by multiple regression to estimate VO2(sub max) from age, gender, PAG-PASS and either WG (R = 0.790, SEE=5.019 ml/kg/min), %FAT (R= 0.080, SEE = 4.915 ml/kg/min) or BMI (R = 0.777, SEE = 5.162ml/kg/min). Cross-validation by the PRESS technique confirmed these statistics. Simple correlations between measured VO2(sub max) and estimates from the PAG-PASS models with WG, %Fat and BMI were 0.790, 0.800 and 0.777, minimally different from the correlations obtained with the PASS models (0.810, 0.810, and 0.802). PAG-PASS and PASS model constant errors were also similar: < 1 ml/kg/min for subsamples of age, gender, PASS and for VO2(sub max) between 30 and 50 ml/kg/min (70% of the sample) but > 1 ml/kg/min for VO2(sub max) <30 and >50 ml/kg/min. CONCLUSIONS: Non-exercise models using the combined effects of age, gender, body composition and the dichotomized PAG-PASS provide estimates of VO2(sub max) that are accurate for most adults, and the accuracy of these models are similar to previously published models using the 11-point PASS.
NASA's planetary missions have collected, and continue to collect, massive volumes of orbital imagery. The volume is such that it is difficult to manually review all of the data and determine its significance. As a result, images are indexed and searchable by location and date but generally not by their content. A new automated method analyzes images and identifies "landmarks," or visually salient features such as gullies, craters, dust devil tracks, and the like. This technique uses a statistical measure of salience derived from information theory, so it is not associated with any specific landmark type. It identifies regions that are unusual or that stand out from their surroundings, so the resulting landmarks are context-sensitive areas that can be used to recognize the same area when it is encountered again. A machine learning classifier is used to identify the type of each discovered landmark. Using a specified window size, an intensity histogram is computed for each such window within the larger image (sliding the window across the image). Next, a salience map is computed that specifies, for each pixel, the salience of the window centered at that pixel. The salience map is thresholded to identify landmark contours (polygons) using the upper quartile of salience values. Descriptive attributes are extracted for each landmark polygon: size, perimeter, mean intensity, standard deviation of intensity, and shape features derived from an ellipse fit.
We use a nonstationary generalization of the higher-order structure function technique to investigate statistical properties of the magnetic field fluctuations recorded by MESSENGER spacecraft during its first flyby (01/14/2008) through the near-Mercury space environment, with the emphasis on key boundary regions participating in the solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. Our analysis shows, for the first time, that kinetic-scale fluctuations play a significant role in the Mercury's magnetosphere up to the largest resolvable timescale (approx.20 s) imposed by the signal nonstationariry, suggesting that turbulence at this plane I is largely controlled by finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, we report the presence of a highly turbulent and extended foreshock system filled with packets of ULF oscillations, broad-band intermittent fluctuations in the magnetosheath, ion-kinetic turbulence in the central plasma sheet of Mercury's magnetotail, and kinetic-scale fluctuations in the inner current sheet encountered at the outbound (dawn-side) magnetopause. Overall, our measurements indicate that the Hermean magnetosphere, as well as the surrounding region, are strongly affected by non-MHD effects introduced by finite sizes of cyclotron orbits of the constituting ion species. Physical mechanisms of these effects and their potentially critical impact on the structure and dynamics of Mercury's magnetic field remain to be understood.
A support vector machine (SVM), a machine learning technique developed from statistical learning theory, is employed for the purpose of estimating passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures over snow-covered land in North America as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) satellite sensor. The capability of the trained SVM is compared relative to the artificial neural network (ANN) estimates originally presented in [14]. The results suggest the SVM outperforms the ANN at 10.65 GHz, 18.7 GHz, and 36.5 GHz for both vertically and horizontally-polarized PMW radiation. When compared against daily AMSR-E measurements not used during the training procedure and subsequently averaged across the North American domain over the 9-year study period, the root mean squared error in the SVM output is 8 K or less while the anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.7 or greater. When compared relative to the results from the ANN at any of the six frequency and polarization combinations tested, the root mean squared error was reduced by more than 18 percent while the anomaly correlation coefficient was increased by more than 52 percent. Further, the temporal and spatial variability in the modeled brightness temperatures via the SVM more closely agrees with that found in the original AMSR-E measurements. These findings suggest the SVM is a superior alternative to the ANN for eventual use as a measurement operator within a data assimilation framework.
Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.
We processed time series from seven Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and one Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) station in Svalbard. The goal was to capture the seasonal vertical displacements caused by elastic response of variable mass load due to ice and snow accumulation. We found that estimates of the annual signal in different GNSS solutions disagree by more than 3 mm which makes geophysical interpretation of raw GNSS time series problematic. To overcome this problem, we have used an enhanced Common Mode (CM) filtering technique. The time series are differentiated by the time series from remote station BJOS with known mass loading signals removed a priori. Using this technique, we have achieved a substantial reduction of the differences between the GNSS solutions. We have computed mass loading time series from a regional Climatic Mass Balance (CMB) and snow model that provides the amount of water equivalent at a 1 km resolution with a time step of 7 days. We found that the entire vertical loading signal is present in data of two totally independent techniques at a statistically significant level of 95%. This allowed us to conclude that the remaining errors in vertical signal derived from the CMB model are less than 0.2 mm at that significance level. Refining the land water storage loading model with a CMB model resulted in a reduction of the annual amplitude from 2:1 mm to 1:1 mm in the CM filtered time series, while it had only a marginal impact on raw time series. This provides a strong evidence that CM filtering is essential for revealing local periodic signals when a millimetre level of accuracy is required.
A new and simple technique for estimating from attenuation statistics alone the joint distribution of attenuation and cross-polarization impairments on a satellite-to-earth radio path is presented. It compares measurements with predictions for the CTS spacecraft 11.7 GHz right-hand circularly polarized downlink during the first six months of 1979.
As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.
A cellular-based preemption system that uses existing cellular infrastructure to transmit preemption related data to allow safe passage of emergency vehicles through one or more intersections. A cellular unit in an emergency vehicle is used to generate position reports that are transmitted to the one or more intersections during an emergency response. Based on this position data, the one or more intersections calculate an estimated time of arrival (ETA) of the emergency vehicle, and transmit preemption commands to traffic signals at the intersections based on the calculated ETA. Additional techniques may be used for refining the position reports, ETA calculations, and the like. Such techniques include, without limitation, statistical preemption, map-matching, dead-reckoning, augmented navigation, and/or preemption optimization techniques, all of which are described in further detail in the above-referenced patent applications.