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DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Filtering and Analysis of Multiplicities in Eigenvalue Spectra

Fine-grained spectral properties of quantum Hamiltonians, including both eigenvalues and their multiplicities, provide useful information for characterizing many-body quantum systems as well as for understanding phenomena such as topological order. Extracting such information with small additive error is #BQP-complete in the worst case. In this work, we introduce QFAMES (quantum filtering and analysis of multiplicities in eigenvalue spectra), a quantum algorithm that efficiently identifies clusters of closely spaced dominant eigenvalues and determines their multiplicities under physically motivated assumptions, which allows us to bypass worst-case complexity barriers. QFAMES also enables the estimation of observable expectation values within targeted energy clusters, providing a powerful tool for studying quantum phase transitions and other physical properties. We validate the effectiveness of QFAMES through numerical demonstrations, including its applications to characterizing quantum phases in the transverse-field Ising model and estimating the ground-state degeneracy of a topologically ordered phase in the two-dimensional toric code model. We also generalize QFAMES to the setting of mixed initial states. Our approach offers rigorous theoretical guarantees and significant advantages over existing subspace-based quantum spectral analysis methods, particularly in terms of the sample complexity and the ability to resolve degeneracies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discrete Rotational Energy for Polyatomic Molecules in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Accurate prediction of aerothermodynamic loads in thermal non-equilibrium flows requires precise modeling of internal energy exchange. While previous direct simulation Monte Carlo frameworks have successfully implemented discrete rotational energy models for diatomic species, the treatment of polyatomic molecules has traditionally relied on continuous energy assumptions that break down at low temperatures and neglect critical high-temperature corrections. This study extends the discrete rotational energy models of Boyd and Gimelshein to fully encompass polyatomic molecules. The proposed framework implements quantized rotational energy level sampling for linear, spherical, and symmetric/asymmetric top rotors. Crucially, the model incorporates centrifugal distortion to address the limitations of the rigid-rotor assumption at hypersonic temperatures, and accounts for nuclear spin parity, which dictates the permissible rotational states and macroscopic specific heats at low temperatures. The model is verified through equilibrium sampling procedures, demonstrating agreement with theoretical quantum Boltzmann distributions and accurately reproducing thermophysical properties across a wide range of temperatures.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization Testing of a 20 Kelvin Cryocooler for Space Applications

Future NASA space exploration missions will require long-duration storage and liquefaction of cryogenic liquids, enabled by active cooling provided by cryocoolers. Recent gap analyses of Lunar and Mars transportation systems have identified 20 K-class cryocoolers as a critical enabling technology for chemical and nuclear thermal propulsion architectures using liquid hydrogen propellant. To address this technology gap, NASA has undergone the development of a high-efficiency, high-capacity 20 K cryocooler via an SBIR partnership with Creare. While the January 2025 testing demonstrated functionality and compliance with contractual requirements, the objective of the NASA-led characterization effort was to generate a dataset for supporting future mission designs across a broader operating envelope, including off-nominal conditions. The cryocooler demonstrated strong performance, achieving a peak coefficient of performance of 17.68% relative to Carnot efficiency and a maximum lift capacity of 24.4 W at 21 K. Overall, the results confirm that the 20 W 20 K cryocooler provides a flexible range of capabilities to enable zero boil-off storage of liquid hydrogen for future Lunar and Mars missions. The data collected provide a strong foundation for model validation and future system design efforts.

Cryocooler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization Testing of a 20 Kelvin Cryocooler for Space Applications

Zero boil-off↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

Ejecta Management in a Safe Lithium Ion Battery Design

As lithium-ion battery energy densities continue to rise, managing the heat and pressure generated during failure events has become increasingly critical. Safety systems must effectively relieve pressure without releasing sparks, flames, or particulate matter, requiring robust filtration solutions. The challenge is compounded by the reduced free volume available for gas expansion in high-density designs, which increases the demands on these filters. While significant progress has been made through experimental studies and modeling efforts to understand the behavior of ejecta during battery failures, there remains a pressing need for practical, rule-of-thumb sizing parameters. These parameters would help correlate high-energy waste streams with appropriate filter design, ensuring reliable containment and safety. This talk will explore recent experimental findings in this area and discuss the potential pathways for developing these essential sizing guidelines.

Ejecta Management↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Progress Toward the Feasibility of the Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket

The Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket (CNTR) is a Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) concept designed to heat propellant directly by the reactor fuel. The primary difference between the CNTR concept and traditional NTP systems is that rather than using traditional solid fuel elements, the CNTR uses liquid fuel with the liquid contained in rotating cylinders by centrifugal force. If the concept can be successfully realized, the CNTR would have a high specific impulse (~1800 seconds) at high thrust, which may enable (i) viable near-term human Mars exploration by reducing round-trip times to 420 days and (ii) direct injection orbits for scientific missions to the Solar System outer planets and potentially Kuiper Belt objects. The CNTR could also use storable propellants such as ammonia, methane, or hydrazine at an Isp of ~900 seconds, enabling long-term in-space storage of a dormant system. Significant engineering challenges must be addressed to establish the technical viability of the CNTR. Research is presently underway to determine resolutions for these engineering challenges. In particular, research has begun on the analytical modeling and simulation of the two-phase heat transfer between the liquid metallic uranium fuel and the gaseous propellant. A paper was presented at the 2021 IAC which described these challenges and the study plan to address them. This paper describes the analytical and experimental progress to date toward resolving these challenges and establishing the engineering feasibility of the CNTR technology.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal experimental design using eigenvalue-based criteria with Pyomo.DoE

New developments in automated optimal experimental design within the PSE+ software ecosystem. Advancements in user experience (to reduce the time taken to perform optimal experiment design) and computational capabilities (allowing more diverse experimental design) are shown with an example relevant to critical minerals and materials. Also, a small tutorial on science-based optimal experimental design and novel contributions therein are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Thermal Radiator Optimization Tool with Alternate Coolants

The development of a modeling tool to optimize the design of a thermal radiator based on capacity, rejection temperature, geometry, type and coolant is presented. The radiator size is determined from the desired capacity, environmental conditions and rejection temperature. Flow through the radiator is derived from the overall heat load and prescribed inlet to outlet delta temperature for a given coolant. The tool considers radiator geometry (i.e., tube spacing and diameter, face-sheet thickness, overall size, etc.) and general type (i.e., parallel/manifold versus serpentine) in the optimization. Selection from a handful of potential coolants is also available in the tool which primarily affects necessary tube diameter to maintain turbulent flow and minimize pressure drop. An Equivalent System Mass (ESM) approach is utilized to include pump power in the optimization. Results from the tool and potential future enhancements are also discussed.

Coolant↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological probes of Dark Radiation from Neutrino Mixing

Abstract Models of stepped dark radiation have recently been found to have an important impact on the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background, aiding in easing the Hubble tension. In this work, we study models with a sector of dark radiation with a step in its abundance, which thermalizes after big bang nucleosynthesis by mixing with the standard model neutrinos. For this, we extend an earlier work which has focused on the background evolution only until the dark sector thermalizes by deriving the full background and perturbation equations of the model and implementing them in an Einstein-Boltzmann solving code. We expound on the behavior of this model, discussing the wide range of parameters that result in interesting and viable cosmologies that dynamically generate dark radiation during a range of epochs. We find that for the strongly self-coupled regime, there is no large cosmological impact for a tight prior on the mass, whereas larger mass ranges allow a smooth interpolation between a behavior close to the ΛCDM cosmological standard model and close to an additional component of strongly self-interacting dark radiation. In the weakly self-coupled regime we find that we can accommodate a parameter space relevant for the neutrino anomalies as well as one relevant to easing the Hubble tension.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Three Dimensionally Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) is a Novel Single Piece Ablative TPS for Extreme Entry Environments

Three Dimensionally Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) is robust, single piece, carbon phenolic ablative thermal protection system under development at NASA Ames Research Center initially for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System (MSR EES). The MSR EES requirements drove the need for TPS with no seams, capable of surviving the highest entry conditions for any NASA Earth return capsule with heat fluxes >2000 W/cm2 and pressures >1.5 atmospheres. To produce 3MDCP required development of new weaving infrastructure to enable weaving of preforms large enough to form into a single piece heatshield. It required development of forming techniques to transform a flat woven panel into a sphere cone shape and enhanced infusion processes to support larger scale infusion of resin into the formed preforms. A rigorous performance testing campaign was conducted to develop and validate the materials thermal response model used to determine the required material thickness and to demonstrate the material can survive the extreme entry conditions. The end of the development effort (end of FY26) will result in a TPS at Technical Readiness Level (TRL) 6 and Manufacturing Readiness Level (MRL) 6+ for the MSR EES mission and a mature system ready to support other missions. This poster will provide a snapshot of where 3MDCP is in its development phase.

Ablator↗

NASA NTRS1993

PC4CAST: A Tool for DSN Load Forecasting and Capacity Planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

S J Loyola↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neutron detector response modeling in NOvA

Neutrons can present a significant challenge for neutrino experiments in which energy reconstruction is critical. With the ability to escape detection completely and with a weak correlation between their kinetic energy and any eventual energy deposition, it is difficult to fully account for neutrons produced in neutrino interactions. This in turn leads to significant model dependence when evaluating neutron-related systematic uncertainties. The NOvA experiment is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with a high-statistics sample of antineutrino data collected by its near detector. We report an excess relative to data of simulated neutron candidates with low energy depositions when using standard Geant4 physics lists. The simulation excess is traced to an overabundance of secondary photons produced from interactions of neutrons with kinetic energy greater than \SI{20}{\mega\eV}. Improved agreement with data is obtained by applying the data-driven neutron-on-carbon \menate model for neutrons between \SI{20}{\mega\eV} and ${\sim}$\SI{100}{\mega\eV}. With \menate, the residual oversimulation is more uniform across the calorimetric neutron energy spectrum, suggesting possible overproduction of primary neutrons by the GENIE neutrino interaction generator. These results motivate the adoption of \menate-supplemented Geant4 simulation as the nominal simulation in the production of future \nova simulation.

Abubakar, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Turbulent Heat Flux (THX) Experiments: Summary and Lessons Learned

The Turbulent Heat Flux (THX) experiments were conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in order to collect measurements of velocities and temperatures for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) validation of heated flows, with a focus on propulsion system components. The experiments spanned 5 phases; four of which were conducted in the GRC AeroAcoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) using the Small Hot Jet Flow Rig (SHJAR). In addition to making velocity measurements with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), the THX experiments introduced a new Raman-scattering based capability to measure temperatures. Computational studies were also conducted for each of the experimental configurations, in order to provide a baseline of expected CFD results and conduct an assessment of the capability of various CFD approaches for calculating flows where the turbulent transport of heat was important. Two of the collected sets of data were used for American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Propulsion Aerodynamic Workshops (PAWs). The data set from the 5th phase, collected for heated supersonic jets, was also used to construct new validation cases for the NASA Turbulence Model Resource (TMR). This paper provides an overview of the experiments and associated computations for each of the 5 test phases. Key experimental findings are presented. Lessons learned are provided concerning the effect of computational modeling choice on accuracy of predicting turbulent flows where thermal transport is important. Emphasis is placed on comparing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes approaches with large-eddy simulation approaches. The benefits of utilizing a conjugate heat transfer method in conjunction with CFD solver for film cooling is demonstrated.

RANS↗