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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Broadband Predictions of Optimized Proprotors in Axial Forward Flight

A low-fidelity toolchain was used to predict broadband self-noise trends for three proprotors in axial flight: a baseline (C24ND) and two acoustically constrained proprotors (OPT-III and COPR-3). Rotor loads were predicted with the ANOPP Propeller Analysis System (PAS) and self-noise was predicted with the semiempirical method of Brooks, Pope, and Marcolini (BPM) implemented in the ANOPP2 Self-Noise Internal Functional Module (ASNIFM). Comparisons to experimental data revealed that trends for turbulent boundary layer trailing edge (TBL-TE) noise could be modeled across several flight conditions by increasing the boundary layer thicknesses via the trip setting. Since the Mach number range of the BPM method is exceeded in these predictions, a dependence of boundary layer displacement thickness on blade station Mach number was suggested as a possible reason for needing to model thicker boundary layers, suggesting that the TBL-TE model needs to be developed further. Bluntness vortex shedding noise (BVS) predictions required tuning the trailing edge thickness and trailing edge closure angle for each flight condition to match experimental trends, demonstrating that the BVS noise model is incomplete and that BVS noise may vary with the angle of attack. This study indicates that the BPM self-noise method needs to be improved, which will lead to more accurate broadband predictions.

Broadband self-noise↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Approaches for Rare-Earth Silicate Environmental Barrier Coating Thermochemical and Thermomechanical Property Predictions

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are a necessary enabling technology for the transition from superalloys to silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in gas turbine engines for increased efficiency and decreased fuel costs. SiC-based CMCs are prone to oxidation-based degradation in the engine hot section, and rare-earth (RE) silicates are promising candidates for EBCs due to their close thermal expansion match to the composite substrate and oxidation resistance. However, the design of EBCs is hindered by the large chemical space of candidate materials and the difficulty in obtaining material properties for engineering optimization. This is especially difficult as research continues into mixed-cation or “high-entropy” RE silicates. First-principles computational methods such as density functional theory (DFT) are highly effective at calculating material properties to guide coating design but are limited by their computational cost. Atomistic simulations have the potential to both accelerate property calculations and expand the properties able to be calculated due to their lower computational compared to DFT. However, they require interatomic potentials (IAPs) specific to the material system of interest, and, to our knowledge, there are no suitable IAPs for RE silicates. Machine learning (ML) is a promising technique to accelerate material property predictions indirectly by generating IAPs for atomistic simulations or via direct prediction. In this work, we present two ML approaches to accelerate the calculation of RE silicate properties relevant to EBC design: 1) a ML-derived interatomic potential (IAP) for atomistic simulations of yttrium disilicate (Y2Si2O7) from DFT training data, and 2) a neural network (NN) model to directly predict thermochemical properties of RE silicates and oxides directly from easily obtainable unit cell parameters. Classical MD simulations using the IAP yield lattice properties and bond lengths in good agreement with both DFT and experimental results from x-ray diffraction. Thermodynamic properties calculated using the finite-displacement phonon method and quasi-harmonic approximation were orders of magnitude faster than DFT with good agreement to the DFT results. The IAP was also used to calculate properties such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) that require large simulation supercells and are therefore difficult with DFT. The IAP correctly predicted the anisotropic nature of the CTE in three different phases of Y2Si2O7. The NN model predicts constant pressure heat capacity, Cp, orders of magnitude faster than DFT calculations, which can enable its use as a surrogate model for multiscale simulations. The two methods presented in this work demonstrate the utility of ML for accelerating the prediction of RE silicate properties, which can in turn accelerate EBC design and optimization.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2023

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Prediction of Yarn Pullout Failure Mode in Unreinforced Textile Fabrics

Unreinforced woven fabrics have been implemented in a variety of high performance applications, including body armor, deployable structures, and as the reinforcement material in composites. Multiscale modeling techniques have significantly improved the capabilities of simulation-based tools to capture fabric mechanics efficiently and accurately, but often lack in their prediction of failure and require pairing with finite element analysis (FEA) software, limiting their application to the design of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials. NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) is a standalone multiscale program that has been traditionally used in the analysis of reinforced composites materials. More recently, it has been amended to simulate unreinforced fabric behavior by allowing the geometric state of the tows to change with applied loading due to the lack of a reinforcement material, such as the matrix seen in composites. Previous work has shown the ability of NASMAT to capture nonlinear macroscale behavior by predicting geometric changes in the state of each subcell as a function of the applied loading and allowing each subcell in the analysis to rotate according to these predicted changes, as well as predict nonlinear behavior due to the fiber breakage failure mode. In this work, the capability of predicting the onset and propagation of failure in plain woven fabrics in NASMAT is presented for the yarn pullout failure mode, which occurs when a fabric is loaded at an off-axis angle relative to the warp of weft tow direction. Yarn pullout behavior is initiated by determining the applied load in which the shear resistance of the contact area between yarn families is overcome. When failure is initiated, yarn pullout is determined to have occurred when the applied displacement, calculated from global strain, exceeds the deformed position of a given contact points between yarn families, determined from pin-joint kinematics. Contact points where pullout has occurred contribute to a global damage parameter used to modify the homogenized stiffness of the fabric, resulting in nonlinear behavior observed at the macroscale. The off-axis loading behavior and yarn pullout failure theory have been developed and implemented into NASMAT such that users can simulate off-axis tensile behavior of fabrics in a single, standalone multiscale tool. Simulations are compared to uniaxial tensile tests at various off-axis angles to demonstrate the capability of the tool in its prediction of both the onset of failure at each off-axis angles and the stress-strain behavior as failure progresses.

Materials↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Predictions of Fluctuating Pressure Environments on NASA’s SLS Ascent Unsteady Aerodynamics Wind Tunnel Test

This paper details work that is being conducted on predicting fluctuating pressure environments on NASA launch vehicles using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The accurate characterization of these aeroacoustics environments is necessary in the analysis of vehicle structural health and aerodynamic performance and in the vehicle design process. High-fidelity simulations of the unsteady flow over NASA’s SLS Ascent Unsteady Aerodynamics wind tunnel Test (AUAT) using the hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-large eddy simulations (LES) methodologies in Mississippi States’ Loci/CHEM solver are presented. The two available methods, Nelson-Nichols and dynamic hybrid RANS-LES (DHRL), are compared head-to-head on identical grids at two Mach numbers. At the high-subsonic Mach number, locally supersonic flow expanding over a shoulder induces a separation-reattachment system that is predicted poorly by the Nelson-Nichols method due to an under-prediction in unsteady content. The DHRL solution predicts the spatial extent and frequency domain response of this system well but under-predicts the peak noise levels due to a delay in the RANS-to-LES transition. At the low-supersonic Mach number, compression corner dynamics dominate the unsteady flow. While the Nelson Nichols solution captures this phenomenon well, another solution on a refined grid indicates that some model stress depletion is occurring. The DHRL solution again performs well at this Mach number and matches the wind tunnel data fairly closely, but perhaps most impressively, is fairly agnostic to increasing grid resolution. The findings in this paper are expected to be generally applicable and will be used to guide the prediction of aeroacoustics environments of other NASA launch vehicles.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Broadband Noise Prediction of Two Small Hovering Rotors using FUN3D-ANOPP2

A computational study was performed on two small hovering rotors, the ideally twisted rotor and the optimum hovering 2-bladed rotor, using FUN3D-ANOPP2. The effects of different inviscid upwinding techniques and temporal resolutions on aerodynamic performance and acoustic prediction were compared against experimental data obtained in the Small Hover Anechoic Chamber facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. Decreasing the numerical dissipation with 𝜅 tuning or by using a higher-order inviscid flux reconstruction scheme was shown to improve aerodynamic performance predictions when compared to measured data for most cases. The effect of dissipation on the vorticity field was also seen to influence the amount of turbulence surrounding the vortex core of the first blade-vortex interaction (BVI), the coherence of the second and higher BVI vortex cores, and the downstream breakdown of the rotor wake for both rotor geometries. Tonal and broadband noise predictions from simulation cases with lower dissipation were seen to agree better with the experiment for the ideally twisted rotor, whereas temporal resolution differences had negligible impact on the broadband noise results. Similar fundamental BPF directivity patterns were obtained by all simulation cases for the optimum hovering 2-bladed rotor, while the most accurate 2*BPF directivity trend, compared to the experiment, was predicted by the lower-dissipation case at the coarse temporal resolution, albeit with an amplitude underprediction. Broadband noise spectral roll-off behavior was seen to occur at a higher frequency when using a finer temporal resolution for the optimum hovering 2-bladed rotor, unlike for the ideally twisted rotor geometry. The broadband noise prediction for the optimum hovering 2-bladed rotor from the higher-dissipation case at the coarse temporal resolution was also seen to predict a tone centered around approximately 8.5 kHz, which was similar in amplitude to the measured tone around 16.5 kHz.

Christopher S. Thurman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Traffic Prediction for Uncommunicative Aircraft in Terminal Airspace: Development Framework and Performance Evaluations

This paper presents an air traffic prediction algorithm that takes observations of an aircraft and classifies aircraft type, estimates the aircraft's intent to and method of joining an airport traffic pattern, and predicts the aircaft's future trajectory. To develop algorithms that enable autonomous aircraft to safely insert into un-towered traffic patterns, several challenges need to be addressed. These challenges range from traffic detection to sensor fusion to own-ship trajectory replanning. Critical to a trajectory replanning algorithm is information regarding the future behavior of all traffic aircraft in the operational environment. The presented traffic prediction algorithm generates this information using regular measurements of traffic aircraft position and velocity to classify the aircraft by speed-class, estimate how the aircraft will approach the runway, and construct a predicted trajectory to the runway including future positions and velocities at specific times. The predictions of the presented algorithm are the necessary inputs for any downstream traffic pattern sequencing and own-ship trajectory planning routines. The presented algorithm is benchmarked using approximately 300 randomized traffic trajectories, spanning four vehicle weight classes and eight traffic entry types. While the algorithm can process multiple traffic vehicles in the terminal area, there is no prediction of traffic-on-traffic interaction. Each traffic vehicle is processed separately.

John D McMinn↗
DOE OSTI2025

BatteryPro: A Python Toolkit for Battery Data Analysis and Machine Learning Predictions

Analyzing battery test data for research & development can be time-consuming since battery tests often run on the order of months to years, generating large volumes of data. BatteryPro is a comprehensive Python package and software designed to facilitate advanced analysis and performance predictions for battery test data. Developed for battery researchers, it supports data types from widely used battery testing instruments, including MACCOR and Biologic cycling systems. The software provides a variety of tools for extracting and plotting key battery parameters such as time, voltage, capacity, current, and pressure. In addition to its extensive data analysis capabilities, BatteryPro features a dedicated machine learning module that employs a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to predict battery performance and degradation. Users can generate synthetic capacity fade data, calculate fade metrics, and leverage predictive models to forecast long-term battery behavior. The software's graphical user interface (GUI) enhances usability, allowing researchers to upload, merge, and analyze multiple data files with full customizability. The GUI also supports machine learning predictions, enabling users to fit models and make predictions based on selected data and parameters. BatteryPro is built using QtDesigner, scikit-learn, matplotlib, and pandas, ensuring a high level of customization, flexibility, and accuracy in battery data analysis. This tool aims to empower researchers with the ability to perform detailed battery analysis and make informed predictions, ultimately advancing the field of battery research.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Driven Framework for Predicting the Sorting and Screening Performance of an Integrated Biomass Feedstock Preprocessing System

The characteristics of mechanically sorted and screened lignocellulosic biomass, such as the mass contents of corn stover anatomical fractions (leaves, husks, stalks, cobs, etc.), can be used to calculate the intermediate feedstock quality attributes “yield” and “purity” that indicate the conversion efficiency of biocrude. No prior study has investigated the correlations from the characteristics of raw biomass and preprocessing unit operation parameters to those intermediate feedstock quality attributes. This work presents a data-driven framework for assessing and predicting the intermediate feedstock quality attributes in an integrated biomass feedstock preprocessing system. Our study used corn stover as a typical type of herbaceous biomass because of its abundance in the U.S. It began with data acquisition of moisture content, particle size distribution, and anatomical fractions of the materials after each unit operation in the system. The objective of this preprocessing system is to minimize husks and leaves and maximizing cobs and stalks by mechanically separating the materials into three streams via disc screen and air separator. Prototype neural network models were then developed to evaluate the feasibility of predicting process outcomes based on measurable parameters. It is found that incorporating physical constraints into these prediction models significantly enhances the accuracy of the predicted yield and purity against the ground truth data. The experimental data and model predictions indicate that decreasing throughput increases purity, while higher throughput results in lower purity. Finally, an optimization problem was introduced to search optimal combinations of feed material properties and preprocessing unit operation parameters, as the intermediate feedstock quality attributes – yield and purity, appeared to be competing factors. The study also suggests the continual need to improve the data-driven framework’s predictability by incorporating more accurate physical models to describe the dynamics in the preprocessing units such as the air separator.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

QC-GN 2 oMS 2 : a Graph Neural Net for High Resolution Mass Spectra Prediction

Predicting the mass spectrum of a molecular ion is often accomplished via three generalized approaches: rules-based methods for bond breaking, deep learning, or quantum chemical (QC) modeling. Rules-based approaches are often limited by the conditions for different chemical subspaces and perform poorly under chemical regimes with few defined rules. QC modeling is theoretically robust but requires significant amounts of computational time to produce a spectrum for a given target. Among deep learning techniques, graph neural networks (GNNs) have performed better than previous work with fingerprint-based neural networks in mass spectra prediction. To explore this technique further, we investigate the effects of including quantum chemically derived information as edge features in the GNN to increase predictive accuracy. The models we investigated include categorical bond order, bond force constants derived from extended tight-binding (xTB) quantum chemistry, and acyclic bond dissociation energies. Throughout this work, we evaluated these models against a control GNN with no edge features in the input graphs. Bond dissociation enthalpies yielded the best improvement with a cosine similarity score of 0.462 relative to the baseline model (0.437). In this work we also apply dynamic graph attention which improves performance on benchmark problems and supports the inclusion of edge features. Between implementations, we investigate the nature of the molecular embedding for spectra prediction and discuss the recognition of fragment topographies in distinct chemistries for further development in tandem mass spectrometry prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing land-atmosphere interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability

2025 Advancing Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Processes on S2S Predictability Workshop What: 227 registered workshop participants gathered in person (43%) and online (57%) to discuss state-of-the-art scientific understanding and modeling of land-atmosphere interactions and related processes in the context of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. Topics covered sources of S2S predictability, land model initialization methods, model diagnosis and evaluation metrics, AI/ML analysis and applications, and coordination of future community multi-model S2S forecast focused experiments. To advance the science, this community workshop, organized by NSF NCAR, NOAA, NASA, and DOE, aimed to 1) identify process- and application-oriented metrics for assessing S2S prediction skill and 2) develop experimental protocols for coordinated experiments to isolate, quantify, and understand the role of land-atmosphere interactions in S2S predictability. When: June 16-18, 2025 Where: Boulder, CO, USA, and online.

Land-Atmosphere Interaction↗
DOE OSTI2026

Attention-based 3D – convolutional neural network model for mechanical property predictions using visible light images in metal additive manufacturing

Additive manufacturing (AM), while commonly used for rapid prototyping and creating components with complex geometries, has not been widely adopted for critical applications across the aerospace, automotive, defense, energy, and medical industries. This is, in part, due to the challenges of controlling flaws and uncertainty in the mechanical behavior of additively manufactured components. In recent years, there has been an increase in research aimed at predicting the final mechanical properties of additively manufactured components during the printing process. To address these issues, a 3D-CNN model was trained using low-cost in situ visible-light camera data, anomaly classifications, and the chosen process parameters to predict the ultimate tensile strength (UTS), yield strength (YS), total elongation (TE), and uniform elongation (UE). The 3D-CNN layers of the model employed attention mechanisms to prioritize features in the data, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the effect of each process parameter and anomaly class is investigated using attention-based dynamic sigmoid weighted gates to interpret the influence each class has on the final prediction. Different combinations of the in situ data were fed into the 3D-CNN, with varying amounts of image layers, to determine the ideal combination for predicting mechanical properties in situ. Here, the 3D-CNN model achieved mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) below 5% for both UTS and YS while using only a single camera input and under half of the available image layers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpretable, extensible linear and symbolic regression models for charge density prediction using a hierarchy of many-body correlation descriptors

Here, density functional theory (DFT) is routinely used to make electronic structure predictions for high-throughput screening of materials and molecules for technologically relevant areas, like the identification of better catalysts, electronic materials, and drug discovery. However, the DFT formalism is limited by (a) its poor (quadratic-to-quartic) scaling, and (b) the need to perform repeated eigenvalue computations of the electronic Hamiltonian as part of its self-consistent field (SCF) iteration procedure to obtain the converged ground state electron density, ρ (r). Approaches that directly predict ρ (r) of a structure with high accuracy can accelerate conventional SCF calculations and can also be used in linearly scaling methods such as orbital-free DFT. To this end, we present a procedure to predict the ground state electron density of molecular and periodic three-dimensional systems directly from the atomic structure with a particular emphasis on physical interpretability. In our framework, ρ (r) is modeled using many-body correlation descriptors that accurately capture the effects of local atomic arrangements in the neighborhood of a grid point. Our use of a linear regression scheme to fit to charge density data enables transparent analysis of the relative contributions of various types of local atomic correlations. By systematically including increasingly complex correlations, our model is shown to accurately predict ρ (r) for a variety of chemically and electronically diverse systems — amorphous Ge, Al(001) slab, crystalline Ga 2 O 3 , molecular benzene, and polyethylene. We then demonstrate a symbolic regression-based protocol to construct easily computable, interpretable features from lower-order correlations that significantly improves our electron density predictions with effectively no increase in the computational cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting receptor-ligand pairing preferences in plant-microbe interfaces via molecular dynamics and machine learning

Microbiome assembly, structure, and dynamics significantly influence plant health. Secreted microbial signaling molecules initiate and mediate symbiosis by binding to structurally compatible plant receptors. For example, lipo-chitooligosaccharides (LCOs), produced by nitrogen-fixing rhizobial bacteria and various fungi, are recognized by plant lysin motif receptor-like kinases (LysM-RLKs), which activate the common symbiotic pathway. Accurately predicting these molecular interactions could reveal complementary signatures underlying the initial stages of endosymbiosis. Despite the breakthrough in protein-ligand structure prediction with deep learning-based tools, such as AlphaFold3, the large size and highly flexible nature of signaling compounds like LCOs present major challenges for detailed structural characterization and binding-affinity prediction. Typical structure-/physics-based methods of ligand virtual screening are designed for small, drug-like molecules, often rely on high-resolution, experimentally determined structures of the protein receptors, and rarely achieve sufficient sampling to obtain converged thermodynamic quantities with large ligands. In this study, we developed a hybrid molecular dynamics/machine learning (MD/ML) approach capable of predicting binding affinity rankings with high accuracy in systems involving large, flexible ligands, despite limited experimental structural information. Using coarse initial structural models, the predictions using the MD/ML workflow achieved strong alignment with experimental trends, particularly in the top-affinity tier for four legume LysM-RLKs (LYR3) binding to LCOs and a chitooligosaccharide. Furthermore, the MD-based conformation selection protocol provided critical structural insights into substrate specificity and binding mechanisms. This study demonstrates a powerful method to screen for challenging cognate ligand-receptors and advance our understanding of the molecular basis of microbial colonization in plants.

Lipo-chitooligosaccharides↗
DOE OSTI2024

The damage Mechanics challenge Results: Participant predictions compared with experiment

In this article, We present results from a recent exercise where participating organizations were asked to provide model-based blind predictions of damage evolution in 3D-printed geomaterial analogue test articles. Participants were provided with a range of data characterizing both the undamaged state (e.g., ultrasonic measurements) and damage evolution (e.g., 3-point bending, unconfined compression, and Brazilian testing) of the material. In this paper, we focus on comparisons between the participants’ predictions and the previously secret challenge problem experimental observations. We present valuable lessons learned for the application of numerical methods to deformation and failure in brittle-ductile materials. The exercise also enables us to identify which specific types of calibration data were of most utility to the participants in developing their predictions. Further, we identify additional data that would have been useful for participants to improve the confidence of their predictions. Consequently, this work improves our understanding of how to better characterize a material to enable more accurate prediction of damage and failure propagation in natural and engineered brittle-ductile materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗