CRADA No. TC02400 Final Report
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Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) entered a User Proposal with Perseus Materials in Knoxville, TN. By reinventing how composites are made, we unlock a new era of structural materials: faster to produce, easier to assemble, and strong enough for real-world scale. Perseus Materials was targeting the wind turbine industry to make large adhesive joints for composite turbine blades without the limitations of cure time and room temperature cure without the needs to have work times. The triggerable aspect would increase manufacturing rates for composite wind turbine blades.
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The 2014 discovery of living deep-sea coral reefs along the Northwest Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) and lower Emperor Seamount Chain (ESC), despite the North Pacific’s shallow aragonite saturation horizon (ASH) and high CaCO3 dissolution rates, underscores the need to understand the local seawater chemistry that allows these reefs to persist. We investigated seawater carbonate chemistry using discrete samples along the NWHI and ESC from two cruises ~1 year apart (08/26/21 – 09/26/21, 09/09/22 – 10/24/22). Across the two cruises, ASH depth difference ranged from 15 to 77 m. Since the Pacific ASH shoals by 1–2 m yr?¹, this long-term trend cannot explain the magnitude of ASH change observed between cruises. Temperature-salinity plots similarly indicate no major shifts in intermediate water masses that could account for these changes. Instead, ASH depth variability was primarily governed by localized biogeochemical processes, namely changes in intermediate water respiration and CaCO3 dissolution. Indicators for dissolution (TA*) and respiration (AOU) suggest changes in ASH depth were driven by changes in dissolution at the northern- and southern-most sites, whereas respiration exerted stronger control at central sites. Combining 2021 and 2022 data with data from 2014 – 2019 (excluding 2018) revealed high interannual ASH variability, by as much as >200 m at one site. Deep-sea coral reefs across the NWHI and ESC currently reside close to the ASH depth and likely experience seasonal and interannual shifts between under- and supersaturation. As ocean acidification progresses however, persistent exposure to undersaturated seawater could further threaten these critical deep-sea ecosystems.
Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.
Atomistic simulations have become indispensable tools for understanding glass structure, dynamics, and properties, yet persistent challenges limit their predictive power. This perspective examines three interconnected issues, namely glass formation procedures, interatomic potential development, and machine learning applications, which emerged from the 5th International Workshop on Challenges of Atomistic Simulations of Glasses and Amorphous Materials. We identify convergent community priorities for (i) standardized validation protocols, (ii) curated benchmark datasets with complete metadata, and (iii) open repositories for glasses. A systematic was forward is provided by a hierarchical validation framework for assessing the structural fidelity, property prediction, and behavioral realism of simulation techniques. Looking ahead, transformative advances are promised by the fusion of classical techniques with machine learning based approaches, for instance, by integrating swap Monte Carlo with machine-learning (ML) potentials, leveraging foundation models through transfer learning, and finetuning ML potentials with experimental data. Progress depends on the community committing to validated models, reproducible protocols, and sustained data sharing.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.
This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.
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Abstract Spin defects in van der Waals materials offer a promising platform for advancing quantum technologies. Here, we propose and demonstrate a powerful technique based on isotope engineering of host materials to significantly enhance the coherence properties of embedded spin defects. Focusing on the recently-discovered negatively charged boron vacancy center ($${{{{{{{{\rm{V}}}}}}}}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{B}}}}}}}}}^{-}$$ V B − ) in hexagonal boron nitride (hBN), we grow isotopically purified h 10 B 15 N crystals. Compared to$${{{{{{{{\rm{V}}}}}}}}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{B}}}}}}}}}^{-}$$ V B − in hBN with the natural distribution of isotopes, we observe substantially narrower and less crowded$${{{{{{{{\rm{V}}}}}}}}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{B}}}}}}}}}^{-}$$ V B − spin transitions as well as extended coherence timeT 2 and relaxation timeT 1 . For quantum sensing,$${{{{{{{{\rm{V}}}}}}}}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{B}}}}}}}}}^{-}$$ V B − centers in our h 10 B 15 N samples exhibit a factor of 4 (2) enhancement in DC (AC) magnetic field sensitivity. For additional quantum resources, the individual addressability of the$${{{{{{{{\rm{V}}}}}}}}}_{{{{{{{{\rm{B}}}}}}}}}^{-}$$ V B − hyperfine levels enables the dynamical polarization and coherent control of the three nearest-neighbor 15 N nuclear spins. Our results demonstrate the power of isotope engineering for enhancing the properties of quantum spin defects in hBN, and can be readily extended to improving spin qubits in a broad family of van der Waals materials.
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Redox-electrodes are designed to selectively bind platinum group metals by auto-oxidation, and release them electrochemically. The platform can efficiently recover PGMs from catalytic converter leachates, and contribute to energy-efficient technologies for materials recycling.
High burnup fuel fragmentation (HBFF) has been a concern in the nuclear industry for many years. When UO2 reaches and exceeds pellet average burnups around 55 GWd/tU, microstructural changes in the fuel pellet begin to occur that render the pellet susceptible to fine fragmentation under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During a LOCA event, the cladding balloons and bursts, potentially releasing part of these fine fuel fragments into the reactor pressure vessel. This process is known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Presently, the US nuclear industry is developing a safety basis for FFRD with the goal of increasing burnups and pressurized water reactor cycle lengths. Increased cycle lengths would push the burnup limits of the fuel rods past the known threshold for HBFF susceptibility. In this work, the microstructural impact on HBFF was investigated by comparing the microstructures of as-irradiated rod segments to their post-LOCA tested counterparts. This investigation found that varied operational histories result in different microstructural evolutions across the pellet radius, which impacts the fragmentation behavior and radial location of the fragmentation. It is noted that regions with a high bubble density and a high density of grain boundaries fragment under LOCA-relevant conditions. In addition to the fragmentation that has been previously reported at the periphery of the fuel, fragmentation was also noted in the dark zone toward the fuel center. Analysis of the power histories of the fuel samples suggests that the dark zone forms in the central regions of the pellet between temperatures of approximately 740 and 960 °C.
A novel Bayesian approach significantly accelerates data collection for metal oxide reduction/re-oxidation thermodynamic fitting.
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