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DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Description of the LASSO Alpha 1 Release

The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has been named the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations will serve many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO will generate a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It will also provide tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. Many different uses are envisioned for the combined LASSO LES and observational library. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO will help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model yourself. For a modeler, LASSO will help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at http://www.arm. gov/science/themes/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stability and control of power systems with high penetrations of inverter-based resources: An accessible review of current knowledge and open questions

As power system renewable energy penetrations increase, the ways in which key renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) differ from thermal generators become more apparent. Many studies have examined the variability and uncertainty of such generators and described how generation and load can be balanced for a wide variety of annual energy penetrations, at timescales from seconds to years. Another important characteristic of these resources is asynchronicity, the result of using inverters to interface the prime energy source with the power system as opposed to synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators, whose frequency of alternating current (AC) injection is physically coupled to the rotation of the machine itself, inverter based asynchronous generators do not share the same physical coupling with the generated frequency. These subtle differences impact the operations of power systems developed around the characteristics of synchronous generators. In this paper we review current knowledge and open research questions concerning the interplay between asynchronous inverter-based resources (IBRs) and cycle- to second-scale power system dynamics, with a focus on how stability and control may be impacted or need to be achieved differently when there are high instantaneous penetrations of IBRs across an interconnection. This work does not seek to provide a comprehensive review of the latest developments, but is instead intended to be accessible to any reader with an engineering background and an interest in power systems and renewable energy. As such, the paper includes basic material on power electronics, control schemes for IBRs, and power system stability; and uses this background material to describe potential impacts of IBRs on power system stability, operational challenges associated with large amounts of distributed IBR generation, and modern power system simulation trends driven by IBR characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Initial Development of a Computerized Operator Support System

A computerized operator support system (COSS) is a collection of resilient software technologies to assist operators in monitoring overall nuclear power plant performance and making timely, informed decisions on appropriate control actions for the projected plant condition. The COSS provides rapid assessments, computations, and recommendations to reduce workload and augment operator judgment and decision-making during fast- moving, complex events. A prototype COSS for a chemical volume control system at a nuclear power plant has been developed in order to demonstrate the concept and provide a test bed for further research. The development process identified four underlying elements necessary for the prototype, which consist of a digital alarm system, computer-based procedures, piping and instrumentation diagram system representations, and a recommender module for mitigation actions. An operational prototype resides at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL). Several human-machine interface (HMI) considerations are identified and incorporated in the prototype during this initial round of development.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Monte Carlo investigation of a high-efficiency, two-plane Compton camera for long-range localization of radioactive materials

Compton cameras have become an instrument of interest for long-range localization of radioactive materials in nuclear-nonproliferation applications. In this work, a specialized simulation tool was developed for the optimization of a Compton camera through realistic Monte Carlo simulations. This tool can be used for Compton cameras with different geometries. The MCNPX-PoliMi code was used to simulate Compton scatters and photoelectric absorptions in the camera's detectors. The imaging capability is derived from the physics of Compton scattering and the full-energy information obtained in photoelectric absorptions. The simulated system is a 1 1 m2 Compton camera consisting of two planar arrays of photon detectors. Several scintillators were evaluated: LaBr3, CaF2, and NaI(Tl) (all inorganic scintillators), and C9H10 (plastic organic scintillator). The investigation was carried out with a 137Cs source. A minimum detectable activity (MDA) was defined and used to assess the performance of cameras based on different detectors. The simulation results show that C9H10 is a reliable, low-cost, scatter-plane material, increasing the MDA by ~0.2 mCi when compared to a CaF2 scatter plane. On the other hand, the intrinsic background of LaBr3 undermines its above-average energy resolution as the MDA increased by ~0.5 mCi when compared to a NaI(Tl) absorption plane.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Lake Roosevelt White Sturgeon Modeling Support

This report contains summarized progress on the construction, validation, and calibration of a hydrodynamic and water temperature model, and individual-based sturgeon model, for the Transboundary Reach of the Columbia River and Lake Roosevelt. A 1-dimensional hydrodynamic and water temperature model, the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in 1-dimension (MASS1), was constructed using existing bathymetry data from the U.S.-Canada international border to Grand Coulee Dam, and validated using velocity, temperature, and water elevation data collected by staff of the CTCR during three distinct hydrodynamic periods occurring in early spring, late spring, and summer in the study area. Parameters of MASS1 were then calibrated so that model simulations matched empirical data of water surface elevations collected in 2016. Several years of MASS1 data were archived and are available for use with the sturgeon IBM: 1975–2001, 2004, 2005, 2007–2015, and April–August 2016. An individual-based simulation model was concomitantly constructed to simulate four of the early life stages of white sturgeon: spawning, embryo incubation, free embryos, and early larvae. Submodels for each of the four life stages contain mathematical algorithms that primarily describe the growth, development, and movement of individuals based on outputs from MASS1. Sturgeon simulations were then run for two historical years where limited recruitment may have occurred (1997 and 2011) and two years in which recruitment likely did not occur (2004 and 2005).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development of an Ultra-Low Background Liquid Scintillation Counter for Trace Level Analysis

Low-level liquid scintillation counting (LSC) has been established as one of the radiation detection techniques useful in elucidating environmental processes and environmental monitoring around nuclear facilities. The Ultra-Low Background Liquid Scintillation Counter (ULB-LSC) under construction in the Shallow Underground Laboratory at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory aims to further reduce the MDAs and/or required sample processing. Through layers of passive shielding in conjunction with an active veto and 30 meters water equivalent overburden, the background reduction is expected to be 10 to 100 times below typical analytic low-background liquid scintillation systems. Simulations have shown an expected background of around 14 counts per day. A novel approach to the light collection will use a coated hollow light guide cut into the inner copper shielding. Demonstration LSC measurements will show low-energy detection, spectral deconvolution, and alpha/beta discrimination capabilities, from trials with standards of tritium, strontium-90, and actinium-227, respectively. An overview of the system design and expected demonstration measurements will emphasize the potential applications of the ULB-LSC in environmental monitoring for treaty verification, reach-back sample analysis, and facility inspections.

Erchinger, Jennifer L.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulation of the elementary evolution operator with the motional states of an ion in an anharmonic trap

Following a recent proposal of L. Wang and D. Babikov [J. Chem. Phys. 137, 064301 (2012)], we theoretically illustrate the possibility of using the motional states of a Cd{sup +} ion trapped in a slightly anharmonic potential to simulate the single-particle time-dependent Schrödinger equation. The simulated wave packet is discretized on a spatial grid and the grid points are mapped on the ion motional states which define the qubit network. The localization probability at each grid point is obtained from the population in the corresponding motional state. The quantum gate is the elementary evolution operator corresponding to the time-dependent Schrödinger equation of the simulated system. The corresponding matrix can be estimated by any numerical algorithm. The radio-frequency field which is able to drive this unitary transformation among the qubit states of the ion is obtained by multi-target optimal control theory. The ion is assumed to be cooled in the ground motional state, and the preliminary step consists in initializing the qubits with the amplitudes of the initial simulated wave packet. The time evolution of the localization probability at the grids points is then obtained by successive applications of the gate and reading out the motional state population. The gate field is always identical for a given simulated potential, only the field preparing the initial wave packet has to be optimized for different simulations. We check the stability of the simulation against decoherence due to fluctuating electric fields in the trap electrodes by applying dissipative Lindblad dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular SOEC System for Efficient H 2 Production at High Current Density

The overall objective of the project was to demonstrate the potential of Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) systems to produce hydrogen at a cost of $\$$2.00/kg H 2 or less (excluding delivery, compression, storage, and dispensing). An additional objective of the project was to enhance Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) stack endurance and impart subsystem robustness for operation on load profiles compatible with intermittent renewable energy sources. The project was designed to achieve the overall objectives through a multi-disciplinary approach that included SOEC stack and materials development, systems development and optimization, techno-economic analyses, and ultimately the demonstration of a > 4 kg H 2 /day SOEC system. The scope of work included research and development efforts to develop an advanced, high temperature, water splitting (HTWS) system with superior performance and durability relative to the current state-of-the-art. In support of the aforementioned goals, the project activities included: 1) Develop and test cell materials with improved endurance at high current densities; 2) Design and fabricate a >4 kg H 2 /day SOEC stack optimized for high efficiency operation in the range of 1 - 2 A/cm 2 ; 3) Perform stack testing under simulated system conditions; 4) Perform systems analysis including configuration and parametric studies, to maximize SOEC system efficiency and minimize H 2 production costs; 5) Develop the conceptual design of a >4 kg H 2 /day thermally self-sustaining SOEC demonstration system including stack module and balance of plant (BoP).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of the TREAT LEU Conceptual Design

Analyses were performed to evaluate the performance of the low enriched uranium (LEU) conceptual design fuel for the conversion of the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) from its current highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel. TREAT is an experimental nuclear reactor designed to produce high neutron flux transients for the testing of reactor fuels and other materials. TREAT is currently in non-operational standby, but is being restarted under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Resumption of Transient Testing Program. The conversion of TREAT is being pursued in keeping with the mission of the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Material Management and Minimization (M3) Reactor Conversion Program. The focus of this study was to demonstrate that the converted LEU core is capable of maintaining the performance of the existing HEU core, while continuing to operate safely. Neutronic and thermal hydraulic simulations have been performed to evaluate the performance of the LEU conceptual-design core under both steady-state and transient conditions, for both normal operation and reactivity insertion accident scenarios. In addition, ancillary safety analyses which were performed for previous LEU design concepts have been reviewed and updated as-needed, in order to evaluate if the converted LEU core will function safely with all existing facility systems. Simulations were also performed to evaluate the detailed behavior of the UO 2 -graphite fuel, to support future fuel manufacturing decisions regarding particle size specifications. The results of these analyses will be used in conjunction with work being performed at Idaho National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory, in order to develop the Conceptual Design Report project deliverable.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Software Quality Metrics for Geant4: An Initial Assessment - Paper 122

In the context of critical applications, such as shielding and radiation protection, ensuring the quality of simulation software they depend on is of utmost importance. The assessment of simulation software quality is crucial both to determine its adoption in experimental applications and to guarantee reproducibility of outcome over time. Geant4 is a simulation system used in a wide range of experimental applications, some of which, such as radiation protection and biomedical studies, may involve critical use cases and would especially profit from an objective assessment of the software quality. In this study, we present the first results from an ongoing analysis of Geant4 code based on established software metrics from the perspective of software engineering. The analysis evaluates the current status of the code to quantify its characteristics with respect to documented quality standards; further appraisals concern evolutions over a series of release distributions. The quantitative assessment of the software is initially focused on a subset of Geant4 packages, which play a key role in scientific applications and are representative of different software development processes. We describe the chosen software metrics that map the entities of a software system to numeric values through mathematical definitions, quantifying software attributes ranging from functionality to maintainability. To measure such metrics, we exploited a set of software metrics tools, i.e. programs that implement a set of software metrics definitions. They allow software engineers to assess a software system by extracting the required attributes from the software and providing the corresponding metric values. To correlate software metrics values in a well-defined way, we used software quality standard models, such as the ISO/IEC 9126 standard, which aggregate numerical values to aid quality analysis and assessment. With this work we aim to create a baseline for evaluating correlations between software quality embedded in the Geant4 development process and simulation observables produced by Geant4-based applications. Furthermore, we intend to highlight what metrics are most effective at evaluating radiation transport software quality. We are confident that the result will provide constructive guidance both to improve key software tools, such as Geant4, and to estimate their contribution in risk analysis concerning sensitive applications. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. We first discuss the approach adopted to fulfil our assessment. Then, we present the setup of our experiments and the way we collected data. We provide an initial interpretation of a subset of data resulting from measurements made on the selected Geant4 packages. As the analysis is still ongoing at the time of submitting this abstract, some results will be documented in the final paper and in the conference presentation. With this work we aim to create a proper Geant4 data set for evaluating its software characteristics and identifying both strengths and weaknesses. In this initial study, we considered the geometry and processes packages, which play a major role in most simulation applications. The data analysis is in progress at the time of writing; its complexity is related to the differences among software metrics tools, to the large amount of data to be evaluated and to the pioneering character of this project. We are confident that the results will provide valuable indications for the Geant4 user community and constructive guidance to improve key Geant4 packages. Other Monte Carlo codes could profit from the methodology developed in this pilot project for similar assessments of their software quality. At the end of this study, we intend to create a baseline for evaluating correlations between software quality embedded in the Geant4 development process and simulation observables produced by Geant4-based applications. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid water dynamics structures the OH-stretching spectra of solitary water in ionic liquids and dipolar solvents

In a recent study [J. Phys. Chem. B 126, 4584–4598 (2022)], we have used infrared spectroscopy to investigate the solvation and dynamics of solitary water in ionic liquids and dipolar solvents. Complex shapes observed for water OH-stretching bands, common to all high-polarity solvents, were assigned to water in several solvation states. Here, in the present study, classical molecular dynamics simulations of a single water molecule in four ionic liquids and three dipolar solvents were used to test and refine this interpretation. Consistent with past assignments, simulations show solitary water usually donates two hydrogen bonds to distinct solvent molecules. Such symmetrically solvated water produces the primary pair of peaks identified in the OH spectra of water in nearly all solvents. We had further proposed that additional features flanking this main peak are due to asymmetric solvation states, states in which only one OH group makes a hydrogen bond to solvent. Such states were found in significant concentrations in all of the systems simulated. Simulations of the OH stretching spectra using a semiclassical description and the vibrational map developed by Auer and Skinner [J. Chem. Phys. 128, 224511–224512 (2008)] provided semi-quantitative agreement with experiment. Analysis of species-specific spectra confirmed assignment of the additional features in the experimental spectra to asymmetrically solvated water. The simulations also showed that rapid water motions cause a marked motional narrowing compared with the inhomogeneous limit. This narrowing is largely responsible for making the additional features due to minority solvation states manifest in the spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Method for separation of coal conversion products from oxygen carriers

Complete fuel conversion represents an important, but unresolved, aspect in Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC). Different system design approaches are currently being investigated to maximize carbon conversion in the fuel reactor. To achieve greater than ninety percent conversion of the fuel in “fluid-bed” type reducers will require that CLC systems be equipped with additional process equipment to ensure that unburnt fuel leaving the reducer is minimized. This paper presents results obtained from a laboratory test system simulating a char stripper design comprising two components; one for separating large char particles, based on material density differentials, and another for removing small char particles from the oxygen carrier (OC) leaving the reducer, based on elutriation. A test unit was designed, built and operated to identify optimum conditions for separating OC material from unburnt solid fuel – char. The results obtained are necessary for designing a high temperature unit operated at temperatures expected within a CLC system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying the Role of Snowmelt in Stream Discharge in an Alaskan Watershed: An Analysis Using a Spatially Distributed Surface Hydrology Model

Here, this study uses a spatially distributed surface hydrology model to investigate the role of snowmelt in stream discharge for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska. The Parameter ESTimation code is used to calibrate the model with observed stream discharge data. The model was further evaluated using remote sensing-based snow cover product and in situ snowpack water equivalent (SWE) observations. A 36 year (1980–2015) U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulation shows (1) the monthly stream discharge from the Tanana Flats Basin in April decreased by 44%; (2) snow cover area at high altitudes (above 2000 m) decreased in summer, both SWE and snowmelt also decreased significantly, especially in spring; (3) the timings of snowmelt onset and ending shifted by 2 (earlier) and 5 (later) days per decade, respectively; and (4) snowmelt accounts for 40% of the annual stream discharge. This study provides a quantitative tool to investigating hydrological systems considering the impacts of snow dynamics in cold regions. Additionally, this study suggests that future warming will further decrease snow coverage, advance snow melting time, and hereafter change the stream discharge dynamics in the Arctic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Mergers and obliquities in stellar triples

Many close stellar binaries are accompanied by a faraway star. The 'eccentric Kozai-Lidov' (EKL) mechanism can cause dramatic inclination and eccentricity fluctuations, resulting in tidal tightening of inner binaries of triple stars. We run a large set of Monte Carlo simulations, including the secular evolution of the orbits, general relativistic precession, and tides, and we determine the semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and spin-orbit angle distributions of the final configurations. We find that the efficiency of forming tight binaries (≲ 16 days) when taking the EKL mechanism into account is ∼21%, and about 4% of all simulated systems ended up in a merger event. These merger events can lead to the formation of blue stragglers. Furthermore, we find that the spin-orbit angle distribution of the inner binaries carries a signature of the initial setup of the system; thus, observations can be used to disentangle close binaries' birth configuration. The resulting inner and outer final orbits' period distributions and their estimated fraction suggest that secular dynamics may be a significant channel for the formation of close binaries in triples and even blue stragglers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aggregate data‐driven dynamic modeling of active distribution networks with DERs for voltage stability studies

Abstract Electric distribution networks increasingly host distributed energy resources based on power electronic converter (PEC) toward active distribution networks (ADN). Despite advances in computational capabilities, electromagnetic transient models are limited in scalability because of their reliance on exact data about the distribution system and each of its components. Similarly, the use of the DER_A model, which is intended to examine the combined dynamic behavior of many DERs, is limited by the difficulty in parameterization. There is a need for improved dynamic models of DERs for use in large power system simulations for stability analysis. This paper proposes an aggregate model‐free, data‐driven approach for deriving a dynamic partitioned model (DPM) of ADNs. Detailed residential distribution feeders were first developed, including PEC‐based DERs and composite load models (CMLDs), from which the aggregated DPM was derived. The performance was evaluated through various case studies and validated against the detailed ADN model and state‐of‐the‐art DER_A model with CMLD. The data‐driven DPM achieved a of over 90%, accurately representing the aggregated dynamic behavior of ADNs. Furthermore, the DPM significantly accelerated the simulation process with a computational speedup of 68 times compared to the detailed ADN and a 3.5 times speedup compared to the DER_A CMLD model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulation of Columbia River Floods in the Hanford Reach

Columbia River water elevations and flows in the Hanford Reach affect the environment and facilities along the shoreline, including movement of contaminants in groundwater, fish habitat, and infrastructure subject to flooding. This report describes the hydraulic simulation of hypothetical flood flows using the best available topographic and bathymetric data for the Hanford Reach and the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in 1 Dimension (MASS1) hydrodynamic model. The MASS1 model of the Hanford Reach was previously calibrated to field measurements of water surface elevations. The current model setup can be used for other studies of flow, water levels, and temperature in the Reach. The existing MASS1 channel geometry and roughness and other model configuration inputs for the Hanford Reach were used for this study, and previous calibration and validation results for the model are reprinted here for reference. The flood flows for this study were simulated by setting constant flow rates obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the Columbia, Snake, and Yakima Rivers, and a constant water level at McNary Dam, and then running the model to steady state. The discharge levels simulated were all low-probability events; for example, a 100-year flood is one that would occur on average every 100 years, or put another way, in any given year there is a 1% chance that a discharge of that level or higher will occur. The simulated floods and their corresponding Columbia River discharges were 100-year (445,000 cfs), 500-year (520,000 cfs), and the USACE-defined Standard Project Flood (960,000 cfs). The resulting water levels from the steady-state floods can be viewed as “worst case” outcomes for the respective discharge levels. The MASS1 output for water surface elevations was converted to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and projected across the channel and land surface to enable mapping of the floodplain for each scenario. Floodplain maps show that for the 100-year and 500-year discharge levels, flooding is mainly confined to the topographic trench that is the river channel. The flooded area for the Standard Project Flood extends out of the channel area in some places, particularly in the 100-F Area. All of the output from the simulations have been archived and are available for future investigations in the Hanford Reach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗