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NASA NTRS2014

The Efficacy of Air Pollution Control Efforts: Evidence from AURA

Observations of NO2, SO2, and H2CO from OMI on AURA provide an excellent record of pollutant concentrations for the past decade. Abatement strategies to control criteria pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have met with varying degrees of success. Sulfur controls had a profound impact on local SO2 concentrations and a measurable impact on PM2.5. Although substantial effort has gone into VOC control, ozone in the eastern US has responded dramatically to NOx emissions controls.

efficacy of air pollution↗

NASA NTRS2015

Converter Compressor Building, SWMU 089, Hot Spot Areas 1, 2, and 5 Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report (OMMR) presents the findings, observations, and results from operation of the air sparging (AS) interim measure (IM) for Hot Spot (HS) Areas 1, 2, and 5 at the Converter Compressor Building (CCB) located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The objective of the IM at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5 is to decrease concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater in the treatment zones via AS to levels that will enable a transition to a monitored natural attenuation (MNA) phase. This OMMR presents system operations and maintenance (O&M) information and performance monitoring results since full-scale O&M began in June 2014 (2 months after initial system startup in April 2014), including quarterly performance monitoring events in July and October 2014 and January and May 2015. Based on the results to date, the AS system is operating as designed and is meeting the performance criteria and IM objective. The performance monitoring network is adequately constructed for assessment of IM performance at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5. At the March 2014 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, team consensus was reached for the design prepared for expansion of the system to treat the HS 4 area, and at the November 2014 KSCRT Meeting, team consensus was reached that HS 3 was adequately delineated horizontally and vertically and for selection of AS for the remedial approach for HS 3. At the July 2015 KSCRT meeting, team consensus was reached to continue IM operations in all zones until HSs 3 and 4 is operational, once HS 3 and 4 zones are operational discontinue operations in HS 1, 2, and 5 zones where concentrations are less than GCTLs to observe whether rebounding conditions occur. Team consensus was also reached to continue quarterly performance monitoring to determine whether operational zones achieve GCTLs and to continue annual IGWM of CCB-MW0012, CCBMW0013, and CCB-MW0056, located south of the treatment area. The next performance monitoring event is scheduled for July 2015.

Converter Compressor Building↗

NASA NTRS2014

Interim Land Use Control Implementation Plan

This Interim Land Use Control Implementation Plan (LUCIP) has been prepared to inform current and potential future users of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Contractors Road Heavy Equipment (CRHE) Area (SWMU 055; "the Site") of institutional controls that have been implemented at the Site1. Although there are no current unacceptable risks to human health or the environment associated with the CRHE Area, an interim institutional land use control (LUC) is necessary to prevent human health exposure to volatile organic compound (VOC)-affected groundwater at the Site. Controls will include periodic inspection, condition certification, and agency notification.

Implementation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗

NASA NTRS2014

Revised (Mixed-Effects) Estimation for Forest Burning Emissions of Gases and Smoke, Fire/Emission Factor Typology, and Potential Remote Sensing Classification of Types for Ozone and Black-Carbon Simulation

We summarize recent progress (a) in correcting biomass burning emissions factors deduced from airborne sampling of forest fire plumes, (b) in understanding the variability in reactivity of the fresh plumes sampled in ARCTAS (2008), DC3 (2012), and SEAC4RS (2013) airborne missions, and (c) in a consequent search for remotely sensed quantities that help classify forest-fire plumes. Particle properties, chemical speciation, and smoke radiative properties are related and mutually informative, as pictures below suggest (slopes of lines of same color are similar). (a) Mixed-effects (random-effects) statistical modeling provides estimates of both emission factors and a reasonable description of carbon-burned simultaneously. Different fire plumes will have very different contributions to volatile organic carbon reactivity; this may help explain differences of free NOx(both gas- and particle-phase), and also of ozone production, that have been noted for forest-fire plumes in California. Our evaluations check or correct emission factors based on sequential measurements (e.g., the Normalized Ratio Enhancement and similar methods). We stress the dangers of methods relying on emission-ratios to CO. (b) This work confirms and extends many reports of great situational variability in emissions factors. VOCs vary in OH reactivity and NOx-binding. Reasons for variability are not only fuel composition, fuel condition, etc., but are confused somewhat by rapid transformation and mixing of emissions. We use "unmixing" (distinct from mixed-effects) statistics and compare briefly to approaches like neural nets. We focus on one particularly intense fire the notorious Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013. In some samples, NOx activity was not so suppressed by binding into nitrates as in other fires. While our fire-typing is evolving and subject to debate, the carbon-burned delta(CO2+CO) estimates that arise from mixed effects models, free of confusion by background-CO2 variation, should provide a solid base for discussion. (c) We report progress using promising links we find between emissions-related "fire types" and promising features deducible from remote observations of plumes, e.g., single scatter albedo, Angstrom exponent of scattering, Angstrom exponent of absorption, (CO column density)/(aerosol optical depth).

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Building M7-0505 Treatment Tank (SWMU 039) Annual Performance Monitoring Report

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report presents a summary of Interim Measure (IM) activities and an evaluation of data collected during the third year (June 2014 to September 2015) of operation, maintenance, and monitoring (OM&M) conducted at the Building M7-505 (M505) Treatment Tank area, Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida ("the Site"). Under KSC's Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program, the M505 Treatment Tank area was designated Solid Waste Management Unit 039. Arcadis U.S., Inc. (Arcadis) began IM activities on January 10, 2012, after completion of construction of an in situ air sparge (IAS) system to remediate volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater at concentrations exceeding applicable Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Chapter 62-777, Florida Administrative Code, Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs). This report presents a summary of the third year of OM&M activities conducted between June 2014 and September 2015.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗

NASA NTRS2017

Polanyi Evaluation of Adsorptive Capacities of Commercial Activated Carbons

Commercial activated carbons from Calgon (207C and OVC) and Cabot Norit (RB2 and GCA 48) were evaluated for use in spacecraft trace contaminant control filters. The Polanyi potential plots of the activated carbons were compared using to those of Barnebey-Cheney Type BD, an untreated activated carbon with similar properties as the acid-treated Barnebey-Sutcliffe Type 3032 utilized in the TCCS. Their adsorptive capacities under dry conditions were measured in a closed loop system and the sorbents were ranked for their ability to remove common VOCs found in spacecraft cabin air. This comparison suggests that these sorbents can be ranked as GCA 48 207C, OVC RB2 for the compounds evaluated.

Monje, Oscar↗

NASA NTRS2016

Production of Peroxy Nitrates in Boreal Biomass Burning Plumes over Canada During the BORTAS Campaign

The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3 and total peroxy nitrates (sigma)PNs, (sigma)ROONO2. The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of (sigma)PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions.In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of (sigma)PNs, where as minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order react Pions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of (sigma)PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of (sigma)PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average (sigma)PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign,fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3;but (1)(sigma)PN production is amplified significantly more thanO3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the (sigma)PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the (sigma)PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.

biomass burning↗

NASA NTRS2017

ER-2 High Altitude Solar Cell Calibration Flights

ER-2 Capability: Flights can be conducted once every one to two days during a campaign. Flight season runs from April through September. Twelve 2x2cm cells can be flown per flight, or any other configuration that fits inside of the 14.2x14.2cm illuminated area. This capacity could be doubled if the second ER-2 pod is used. Data supplied includes Isc, Voc, IV curve, and cell temperature. Other optical or atmospheric sensors can be flown as able.

Piszczor, Michael F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Decadal Changes in Summertime Reactive Oxidized Nitrogen and Surface Ozone over the Southeast United States

Widespread efforts to abate ozone (O3) smog have significantly reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the past 2 decades in the Southeast US, a place heavily influenced by both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. How reactive nitrogen speciation responds to the reduction in NOx emissions in this region remains to be elucidated. Here we exploit aircraft measurements from ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation - July-August 2004), SENEX (Southeast Nexus - June-July 2013), and SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys - August-September 2013) and long-term ground measurement networks alongside a global chemistry-climate model to examine decadal changes in summertime reactive oxidized nitrogen (RON) and ozone over the Southeast US. We show that our model can reproduce the mean vertical profiles of major RON species and the total (NO (sub y)) in both 2004 and 2013. Among the major RON species, nitric acid (HNO3) is dominant (approximately 42-45 percent), followed by NOx (31 percent), total peroxy nitrates (Sigma PNs; 14 percent), and total alkyl nitrates (Sigma ANs; 9-12 percent) on a regional scale. We find that most RON species, including NOx, Sigma PNs, and HNO3, decline proportionally with decreasing NOx emissions in this region, leading to a similar decline in NO (sub y). This linear response might be in part due to the nearly constant summertime supply of biogenic VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions in this region. Our model captures the observed relative change in RON and surface ozone from 2004 to 2013. Model sensitivity tests indicate that further reductions of NOx emissions will lead to a continued decline in surface ozone and less frequent high-ozone events.

Li, Jingyi↗

NASA NTRS2016

Airborne In-Situ Measurements of Formaldehyde Over California: One Year of Results from the Compact Formaldehyde Fluorescence Experiment (COFFEE) Instrument

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is one of the most abundant oxygenated volatile organiccompounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere, playing a role in multiple atmosphericprocesses, such as ozone (O3) production in polluted environments. Due toits short lifetime of only a few hours in daytime, HCHO also serves astracer of recent photochemical activity. While photochemical oxidation ofnon-methane hydrocarbons is the dominant source, HCHO can also be emitteddirectly from fuel combustion, vegetation, and biomass burning. The CompactFormaldehyde FluorescencE Experiment (COFFEE) instrument was built forintegration onto the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) payload, basedout of NASAs Ames Research Center (Moffett Field, CA). Using Non-ResonantLaser Induced Fluorescence (NR-LIF), trace concentrations of HCHO can bedetected with a sensitivity of 200 parts per trillion.Since its first research flight in December 2015, COFFEE has successfullyflown on more than 20 science missions throughout California and Nevada.Presented here are results from these flights, including boundary layermeasurements and vertical profiles throughout the tropospheric column.Californias San Joaquin Valley is a primary focus, as this region is knownfor its elevated levels of HCHO as well as O3. Measurements collected inwildfire plumes, urban centers, agricultural lands, and on and off shorecomparisons will be presented. In addition, the correlation of HCHO to othertrace gases also measured by AJAX, including O3, methane, carbon dioxide,and water vapor will also be shown. Lastly, the implications of these HCHOmeasurements on calibration and validation of remote sensing data collectedby NASAs OMI (Aura) and OMPS (SuomiNPP) satellites will be addressed.

wildfire↗

NASA NTRS2019

Towards a Satellite Formaldehyde – in situ Hybrid Estimate for Organic Aerosol Abundance

Organic aerosol (OA) is one of the main components of the global particulate burden and intimately links natural and anthropogenic emissions with air quality and climate. It is challenging to accurately represent OA in global models. Direct quantification of global OA abundance is not possible with current remote sensing technology; however, it may be possible to exploit correlations of OA with remotely observable quantities to infer OA spatiotemporal distributions. In particular, formaldehyde (HCHO) and OA share common sources via both primary emissions and secondary production from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Here, we examine OA–HCHO correlations using data from summertime airborne campaigns investigating biogenic (NASA SEAC4RS and DC3), biomass burning (NASA SEAC4RS), and anthropogenic conditions (NOAA CalNex and NASA KORUS-AQ). In situ OA correlates well with HCHO (r=0.59–0.97), and the slope and intercept of this relationship depend on the chemical regime. For biogenic and anthropogenic regions, the OA–HCHO slopes are higher in low NOx conditions, because HCHO yields are lower and aerosol yields are likely higher. The OA–HCHO slope of wildfires is over 9 times higher than that for biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The OA–HCHO slope is higher for highly polluted anthropogenic sources (e.g., KORUS-AQ) than less polluted (e.g., CalNex) anthropogenic sources. Near-surface OAs over the continental US are estimated by combining the observed in situ relationships with HCHO column retrievals from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). HCHO vertical profiles used in OA estimates are from climatology a priori profiles in the OMI HCHO retrieval or output of specific period from a newer version of GEOS-Chem. Our OA estimates compare well with US EPA IMPROVE data obtained over summer months (e.g., slope =0.60–0.62, r=0.56 for August 2013), with correlation performance comparable to intensively validated GEOS-Chem (e.g., slope =0.57, r=0.56) with IMPROVE OA and superior to the satellite-derived total aerosol extinction (r=0.41) with IMPROVE OA. This indicates that OA estimates are not very sensitive to these HCHO vertical profiles and that a priori profiles from OMI HCHO retrieval have a similar performance to that of the newer model version in estimating OA. Improving the detection limit of satellite HCHO and expanding in situ airborne HCHO and OA coverage in future missions will improve the quality and spatiotemporal coverage of our OA estimates, potentially enabling constraints on global OA distribution.

anthropogenic emissions↗

NASA NTRS2019

Testbed for Characterizing the Adsorptive Capacities of Pleated Panel Filters

Pleated panel filters offer a new commercial form factor for controlling VOCs in spacecraft cabin air. They differ from conventional commercial granular activated carbons because they have a lower pressure drop across the filter. A testbed was developed for evaluating the removal capacities of commercial pleated panel filters for NH3. The adsorptive capacity of a commercial cation-exchange pleated filter was compared versus the adsorptive capacities of two acid- impregnated activated carbons used for controlling ammonia in spacecraft cabin air.

Monje Mejia, Oscar A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Modeling of Gaseous Multicomponent Trace Contaminant Adsorption

Activated carbon is a porous material in the Trace Contaminant Control (TCC) system that physically adsorbs volatile organic compounds (VOCs) generated within spacecraft and spacesuit environments. Several isotherm models exist to predict adsorption equilibria for processes involving multicomponent systems. This paper investigates the use of Ideal Adsorbed Solution Theory (IAST) for predicting multicomponent trace contaminant adsorption behavior using single-component isotherms based on potential theory. Developing simulations for experimental breakthrough curves will gauge the validity on the sizing and design of TCC architecture. Model results on predicting bed performance and roll-up effects are compared with available multicomponent test data.

Ideal Adsorbed Solution Theory (IAST)↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ozone Production in the Soberanes Smoke Haze: Implications for Air Quality in the San Joaquin Valley During the California Baseline Ozone Transport Study

The Soberanes Fire burned 132,127 acres along the central California coast between July 22 and October 12, 2016, generating dense smoke and a variety of gaseous compounds that drifted eastward into the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (SJVAB), an ‘extreme’ non‐attainment area for ozone (O3). These gases included nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), the photochemical precursors of O3. The fire started during the California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS), a field campaign that brought aircraft, surface, and remote sensing measurements of O3 and related species to central California. In this paper, we use the CABOTS measurements to assess the impact of the Soberanes Fire on ozone and particulate air quality in the SJVAB. We focus our analysis on July 27 ‐ August 2 when the smoke haze was heaviest and the highest O3 concentrations in the SJVAB during 2016 were recorded. Our analyses suggest that while 40 to 60 ppbv of fire‐generated O3 was transported to the eastern SJVAB in the 1‐3 km altitude range, relatively little smoke or fire‐generated O3 reached the surface in the Visalia area.

Andrew O. Langford↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

radiative forcing↗