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At least 469 records · Page 26

Methane Conversion and Byproduct Determination in a Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactor

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. Solutions for these pressing challenges have led to different avenues of methane mitigation one of which is the development of solid-state bioreactors. These reactors harness the power of biological species that have evolved to use methane as an energy source. These methanotrophs, Methylomicrobium buryatense (5GB1), have been known to produce acetate and formate as a byproduct of the methane consumption cycle. The development of Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactors (HS-SSBR) utilizes these microorganisms by way of hydrogel immobilization and infiltration of 3D printed scaffolds. The scaffolds act as a substrate for methanotroph growth and methane interaction. Methane consumption was monitored by way of gas sensors which indicated a reduction in methane concentration during the first 4 hours of closed loop methane recirculation. The byproducts of formate and acetate were confirmed by way of 1 H-NMR which indicated the 5GB1 methanotrophs were producing these molecules as a result of methane consumption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing resilient decentralized energy systems: The importance of modeling extreme events and long-duration power outages

Mitigating and adapting to climate change requires decarbonizing electricity while ensuring resilience of supply, since a warming planet will lead to greater extremes in weather and, plausibly, in power outages. Although it is well known that long-duration outages severely impact economies, such outages are usually not well characterized or modeled in grid infrastructure planning tools. Here, we bring together data and modeling techniques and show how they can be used to characterize and model long-duration outages. We illustrate how to integrate outages in planning tools for one promising mode of resilient energy supply—microgrids. Failing to treat these extremes in models can lead to microgrid designs (1) that do not realize their full value of resilience, since models do not see the benefits of protecting against extremes, and (2) that appear reliable on paper yet do not actually protect against extremes. Although utilities record power interruptions, lack of access to that data is hindering research on resilience; making datasets available publicly would substantially aid efforts to improve grid planning tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Pore-Scale Microenvironments Control Anthropogenic Carbon Mineralization Outcomes in Basalt

Thin sections and hand samples from 50 sidewall cores from the Wallula Basalt Pilot Demonstration, a basaltic carbon sequestration demonstration, provided the opportunity for the in-depth analysis of carbon mineralization induced by the injection of supercritical CO 2 . In this study, we used optical petrography and scanning electron microscopy to characterize the physical and chemical characteristics of the basalt components influenced by carbon mineralization reactions from all available hand samples and thin sections within the three CO 2 injection zones and caprock flow interiors. We found extensive carbonate mineralization, mostly in the form of nodules that were shown to be chemically zoned: Ca-dominant in the core regions and Ca-bearing Fe-dominant in the outer regions. Carbonate mineralization also took the form of fracture-filling carbonate cement, and acicular aragonite was also observed. Overall, we clarified the structural and paragenetic relationships between newly formed minerals, identifying a new fibro-palagonite-like, poorly crystalline silicate phase that grew on the carbonate nodules and pore-lining zeolites. Here we observed Fe-dominant carbonate precipitates surrounding acicular aragonite and rhombohedral Ca-carbonate cores, whereas previous studies of these zoned nodules did not observe these structures. A comprehensive accounting of the carbon mineralization products is vital to understand and predict the behavior of supercritical CO 2 in the subsurface given both the diversity of the host rock between and within injection zones, especially considering that the morphology and chemistry of the diverse precipitates are influenced by the pore-scale microenvironments of the basalt.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Core–Shell Covalently Linked Graphitic Carbon Nitride–Melamine–Resorcinol–Formaldehyde Microsphere Polymers for Efficient Photocatalytic CO 2 Reduction to Methanol

Photocatalytic reduction of CO 2 with light and H 2 O to form CH 3 OH is a promising route to mitigate carbon emissions and climate changes. Although semiconducting metal oxides are potential photocatalysts for this reaction, low photon efficiency and leaching of environmental unfriendly, toxic metals limit their applicability. Here, we report a metal-free, core-shell photocatalysts consisting of graphitic carbon nitride (g-C 3 N 4 , CN) covalently linked to melamine-resorcinol-formaldehyde (MRF) microsphere polymers for this reaction. Cova-lent linkage enabled efficient separation of photo-generated carriers and photocatalysis. Using 100 mg of a photocatalyst containing 15 wt.% CN, a CH 3 OH yield of 0.99 μmol·h -1 was achieved at a reaction temperature of 80 °C and 0.5 MPa with external quantum efficiencies ranging from 5.5% at 380 nm to 1.7% at 550 nm. The yield was about 20 and 10 times higher than that of its components CN and MRF, respectively. Characterization with XPS, TEM, and bulk and surface elemental analyses supported a core-shell structure and charge transfer at C-N bond at the CN-MRF interface between the methoxy group in the 2,4-trishydroxylmethyl-1,3-diphenol part of MRF and the terminal amino groups in the CN. This enhanced ligand-to-ligand charge transfer resulted in 67% of photo-excited internal charge transferred from CN to hy-droxymethylamino group in MRF, whose amino group was the catalytic site for CO 2 photocatalytic reduction to CH 3 OH. Furthermore, this study provides a series of new metal-free photocatalyst designs and insights into the molecular-level structure-mediated photocatalytic response

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗

Design and Assessment of a Novel Approach for Ecosystem Warming Experiments in High‐Energy Tidal Wetlands

Abstract Coastal salt marshes have an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Direct and indirect responses to warming are expected to vary along the marsh elevation gradient, making ecosystem responses to warming at this marine‐terrestrial ecotone uncertain. The Marsh Ecosystem Response to Increased Temperatures (MERIT) experiment was established in 2018 on the North Sea coast of Germany. Experimental plots are evenly distributed over three elevational marsh zones (pioneer, low marsh, and high marsh) and include three temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5°C, +3.0°C). MERIT's novel design combines active warming (horizontal surface warming cables and vertical soil warming pins) with passive, partially covered domes. For performance assessment, temperature deltas between ambient and warmed plots were calculated and evaluated at seasonal, daily, and diurnal timescales. We used Linear Mixed Models with Residual Maximum Likelihood for evaluating warming treatment effects and constraining environmental factors. MERIT was effective at ecosystem warming in this high‐energy environment both above‐ and belowground. Mixed models show that warming treatment dominates temperature differences belowground and at the soil surface, along with factors such as wind speed, flooding duration, and solar radiation. Aboveground warming was lower than belowground warming, but the dome design minimized issues seen in other open‐top chamber experiments. The combination of passive aboveground warming with feedback‐controlled active surface and belowground heating provides a setup for understanding warming effects on tidal ecosystems without altering the natural impacts of wind, radiation, and tidal inundations at high‐energy coastlines. Our design creates opportunities to expand future warming experiments to remote locations and technically challenging environments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling plant- and environment-mediated drivers of active rhizosphere bacterial community dynamics during short-term drought

Abstract Mitigating the effects of climate stress on crops is important for global food security. The microbiome associated with plant roots, the rhizobiome, can harbor beneficial microbes that alleviate stress, but the factors influencing their recruitment are unclear. We conducted a greenhouse experiment using field soil with a legacy of growing switchgrass and common bean to investigate the impact of short-term drought severity on the recruitment of active bacterial rhizobiome members. We applied 16S rRNA and 16S rRNA gene sequencing for both crops and metabolite profiling for switchgrass. We included planted and unplanted conditions to distinguish environment- versus plant-mediated rhizobiome drivers. Differences in community structure were observed between crops and between drought and watered and planted and unplanted treatments within crops. Despite crop-specific communities, drought rhizobiome dynamics were similar across the two crops. The presence of a plant more strongly explained the rhizobiome variation in bean (17%) than in switchgrass (3%), with a small effect of plant mediation during drought observed only for the bean rhizobiome. The switchgrass rhizobiome was stable despite changes in rhizosphere metabolite profiles between planted and unplanted treatments. We conclude that rhizobiome responses to short-term drought are crop-specific, with possible decoupling of plant exudation from rhizobiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗