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NASA NTRS1978

The mutual attraction of magnetic knots

It is observed that the magnetic knots associated with active regions on the sun have an attraction for each other during the formative period of the active regions, when new magnetic flux is coming to the surface. The attraction disappears when new flux ceases to rise through the surface. Then the magnetic spots and knots tend to come apart, leading to disintegration of the sunspots previously formed. The dissolution of the fields is to be expected, as a consequence of the magnetic repulsion of knots of like polarity and as a consequence of the hydromagnetic exchange instability. The purpose of this paper is to show that the mutual attraction of knots during the formative stages of a sunspot region may be understood as the mutual hydrodynamic attraction of the rising flux tubes. Two rising tubes attract each other, as a consequence of the wake of the leading tube when one is moving behind the other, and as a consequence of the Bernoulli effect when rising side by side.

Parker, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Fast Context Switching in Real-Time Propositional Reasoning

The trend to increasingly capable and affordable control processors has generated an explosion of embedded real-time gadgets that serve almost every function imaginable. The daunting task of programming these gadgets is greatly alleviated with real-time deductive engines that perform all execution and monitoring functions from a single core model, Fast response times are achieved using an incremental propositional deductive database (an LTMS). Ideally the cost of an LTMS's incremental update should be linear in the number of labels that change between successive contexts. Unfortunately an LTMS can expend a significant percentage of its time working on labels that remain constant between contexts. This is caused by the LTMS's conservative approach: a context switch first removes all consequences of deleted clauses, whether or not those consequences hold in the new context. This paper presents a more aggressive incremental TMS, called the ITMS, that avoids processing a significant number of these consequences that are unchanged. Our empirical evaluation for spacecraft control shows that the overhead of processing unchanged consequences can be reduced by a factor of seven.

Nayak, P. Pandurang↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Urban Environmental Monitoring/100 Cities Project: Legacy of the First Phase and Next Steps

The Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) project, now known as the 100 Cities Project, at Arizona State University (ASU) is a baseline effort to collect and analyze remotely sensed data for 100 urban centers worldwide. Our overarching goal is to use remote sensing technology to better understand the consequences of rapid urbanization through advanced biophysical measurements, classification methods, and modeling, which can then be used to inform public policy and planning. Urbanization represents one of the most significant alterations that humankind has made to the surface of the earth. In the early 20th century, there were less than 20 cities in the world with populations exceeding 1 million; today, there are more than 400. The consequences of urbanization include the transformation of land surfaces from undisturbed natural environments to land that supports different forms of human activity, including agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure such as roads and other types of transportation. Each of these land transformations has impacted, to varying degrees, the local climatology, hydrology, geology, and biota that predate human settlement. It is essential that we document, to the best of our ability, the nature of land transformations and the consequences to the existing environment. The focus in the UEM project since its inception has been on rapid urbanization. Rapid urbanization is occurring in hundreds of cities worldwide as population increases and people migrate from rural communities to urban centers in search of employment and a better quality of life. The unintended consequences of rapid urbanization have the potential to cause serious harm to the environment, to human life, and to the resulting built environment because rapid development constrains and rushes decision making. Such rapid decision making can result in poor planning, ineffective policies, and decisions that harm the environment and the quality of human life. Slower, more thought-out, decision making could result in more favorable outcomes. The harm to the environment includes poor air quality, soil erosion, polluted rivers and aquifers, and loss of wildlife habitat. Human life is then threatened because of increased potential for disease spreading, human conflict, environmental hazards, and diminished quality of life. The built environment is potentially threatened when cities are built in areas that can be impacted by events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, and landslides. Our goals include assessing the threat of such events on cities and the people living there.

Stefanov, William L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Management of Jettisoned Objects in LEO

The construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) has led to the release of many objects into its orbital plane, usually during the course of an extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Such releases are often unintentional, but in a growing number of cases, the jettison has been intentional, conducted after a careful assessment of the net risk to the partnership and to other objects in space. Since its launch in 1998 the ISS has contributed on average at least one additional debris object that is simultaneously in orbit with the station, although the number varies widely from zero to eight at any one moment. All of these objects present potential risks to other objects in orbit. Whether it comes from known and tracked orbiting objects or from unknown or untrackable objects, collision with orbital debris can have disastrous consequences. Objects greater than 10cm are generally well documented and tracked, allowing orbiting spacecraft or satellites opportunities to perform evasive maneuvers (commonly known as Debris Avoidance Maneuvers, or DAMs) in the event that imminent collision is predicted. The issue with smaller debris; however, is that it is too numerous to be tracked effectively and yet still poses disastrous consequences if it intercepts a larger object. Due to the immense kinetic energy of any item in orbit, collision with debris as small as 1cm can have catastrophic consequences for many orbiting satellites or spacecraft. Faced with the growing orbital debris threat and the potentially catastrophic consequences of a collision-generated debris shower originating in an orbit crossing the ISS altitude band, in 2007 the ISS program manger asked program specialists to coordinate a multilateral jettison policy amongst the ISS partners. This policy would define the acceptable risk trade rationale for intentional release of a debris object, and other mandatory constraints on such jettisons to minimize the residual risks whenever a jettison was accepted. Although ISS-related debris often presents untenable risks to the EVA crew, IVA crew, or to a departing cargo vehicle for a controlled disposal, such released objects also present a ballistic nuisance to the visiting vehicle traffic, and a potential fragmentation threat to the hundreds of other functional and debris objects whose perigees lie below the ISS orbital altitude. Thus, every such jettison decision is a conscious risk trade.

Bacon, John B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then assessed the likelihood and consequences of each risk against each DRM, using three levels of likelihood (Low: less than or equal to 0.1%; Medium: 0.1%–1.0%; High: greater than or equal to 1.0%) and four levels of consequence ranging from Very Low (temporary or insignificant) to High (death, loss of mission, or significant reduction to length or quality of life). Quantitative evidence from clinical, operational, and research sources were used whenever available. Qualitative evidence was used when quantitative evidence was unavailable. Expert opinion was used whenever insufficient evidence was available. Results: A set of 30 risks emerged that will require further mitigation efforts before being accepted by the Agency. The likelihood by consequence risk assessment process provided a means of prioritizing among the risks identified. For each of the high priority risks, a plan was developed to perform research, technology, or standards development thought necessary to provide suitable reduction of likelihood or consequence to allow agency acceptance. Conclusion: The HSRB process has successfully identified a complete set of risks to human space travelers on planned exploration missions based on the best evidence available today. Risk mitigation plans have been established for the highest priority risks. Each risk will be reassessed annually to track the progress of our risk mitigation efforts.

Paloski, W. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations

Compared to the current paradigm for crew health in low-Earth orbit and Lunar missions that rely on constant communication with Mission Control, there is an anticipated shift in medical operations for deep-space exploration missions. This shift stems from mission constraints imposed by the considerable distance from Earth, which include resource limitations due to a lack of resupply, mass, power, volume, and data limitations, challenges imposed by communication latency and the inability to evacuate in case of emergencies. To transition towards a more self-reliant medical approach, a comprehensive strategy is essential to progressively enable crew autonomy and mitigate mission success risks in the challenging environment of space. This transformative shift is collectively referred to as "Earth-Independent Medical Operations" (EIMO), signifying the gradual transfer of medical care and decision-making from terrestrial resources to space-based assets. This transition is aimed at bolstering astronaut health and performance while simultaneously reducing the overall risks associated with space missions. The constraints related to EIMO necessitate an integrated development of medical systems, featuring interoperability with mission planning, vehicle design, spacesuit design, and data architecture. This integration is vital in establishing a robust medical infrastructure that not only supports the well-being of astronauts but also ensures the success of the mission as a whole. The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has developed a model-based Concept of Operations (ConOps) outlining an initial vision for EIMO. Within this ConOps, a comprehensive view is presented, encompassing stakeholder needs, system objectives, and system goals associated with EIMO. Additionally, it provides illustrative examples of the various activities (scenarios) for which the system will be employed during missions. The selection of these activities has been meticulous, aiming to encompass a wide spectrum of medical conditions, including those falling under different risk categories, such as low-likelihood-low-consequence, low-likelihood-high-consequence, and high-likelihood-low-consequence. The selection of these activities (scenarios) effectively encompasses the wide range of medical events situated within an assumed probability-consequence bell curve. In each scenario, at least one of the five main EIMO components identified is captured. Those EIMO components are: Pre-mission Planning, Acute and Emergent Management Decision Making, Prolonged Medical Management Decision Making, Supplies and Resource Management, and Task Load Management. The ConOps was developed by a multidisciplinary team consisting of systems engineers, scientists, and clinicians across NASA and aims to serve as an initial recommendation to gradually and safely enabling crew autonomy for Mars missions and beyond.

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations (ConOps)

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC 7.2) Presentation

This presentation will be for the graduate seminar class for the University of New Mexico. We will discuss the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) version 7.2, a critical tool in radiological consequence analysis within the nuclear safety domain. We will begin with an introduction to radiological consequence analysis and the importance of dose modeling in nuclear safety, referencing key regulatory frameworks such as DOE-STD-3009 and 10 CFR 20. The presentation will provide an overview of RSAC, including its history, primary functions, and the inputs and outputs involved in its calculations. A detailed examination of RSAC's atmospheric dispersion model, based on the Gaussian plume methodology, will be presented, highlighting how meteorological factors influence the results. We will discuss the regulatory alignment of RSAC with DOE and NRC guidelines, emphasizing the assumptions required for compliance and the balance between conservative and realistic inputs. The presentation will also address the limitations and assumptions inherent in RSAC, comparing it with other consequence analysis codes like MACCS, HotSpot, and RASCAL. An example RSAC run will be demonstrated, showcasing a hypothetical accident scenario and interpreting the resulting dose calculations. Finally, we will introduce new ideas to enhance the current RSAC framework. This future work aims to provide multi-industry adaptability and integration with new dispersion models, addressing the evolving needs of DOE and NRC. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on RSAC's ongoing role in nuclear safety and the opportunities for future innovation.

computer program↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739↗

DOE OSTI2026

Engineering Controls Database

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) addresses the reality that cyber attacks on engineered systems can have consequences far beyond data loss or disruption of digital networks. When control systems are compromised, safety, reliability, and performance of the physical process itself may be threatened. This database is meant to establish clear examples and guidance for defining and applying engineered controls in CIE. It explains what engineered controls are, how they differ from information security measures, and how they are integrated into system design. The goal is to ensure that resilience is engineered into systems from the outset. Unlike cybersecurity protections that defend the digital layer, engineered controls act directly at the physical and algorithmic levels to guarantee that unacceptable consequences are prevented or limited. CIE keeps the consequences of a cyber attack from impacting the safety, reliability, and performance of engineered systems.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

A retrospective review of von Neumann’s analysis of hidden variables in quantum mechanics

This article reviews the history of J. von Neumann’s analysis of hidden variables in quantum mechanics and the subsequent analysis by others. In his book The Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics , published in 1932, von Neumann performed an analysis of the consequences of introducing hidden parameters (hidden variables) into quantum mechanics. He arrived at two principal conclusions: first, hidden variables cannot be incorporated into the existing theory of quantum mechanics without major modifications, and second, if they did exist, the theory would have already failed in situations where it has been successfully applied. This analysis has been taken as an “incorrect proof” against the existence of hidden variables, possibly due to a mistranslation of the German word prufen . von Neumann’s so-called proof isn’t even wrong as such a proof does not exist, but it is an examination of the limitations imposed by internal consistency of the Hilbert space formulation of the theory. One of the earliest attempts to eliminate uncertainty, by D. Bohm, requires a major modification of quantum mechanics (observables are not represented by Hermitian operators), which supports von Neumann’s first principal conclusion. However, testing the Bohm theory requires constructing a physically impossible initial state. As such, the theory has no experimental consequences, so W. Pauli referred to it as an “uncashable check”. As there are no observable consequences, the Bohm theory is possibly a counterexample to von Neumann’s second conclusion that hidden variables in particular would have already led to a failure of the theory.

density matrix↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Current MACCS Capabilities for Modeling Atmospheric Physical and Chemical Transformations

The physical and chemical transformation during atmospheric transport of radionuclides released into the environment has the possibility of impacting consequence modeling results. Accordingly, this report identifies physical and chemical transformations that may occur following release of chemically reactive radioactive species, how those transformations may affect modeling of consequences of release to the atmosphere and identifies current capabilities – in both MACCS and other state-of-practice atmospheric transport and dispersions models– to model those transformations. It was found that the inclusion of physical and chemical transformations is currently very limited in current state-of-practice codes for atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides. State-of-practice atmospheric dispersion codes appear to be typically limited to simulating either physical-chemical transformations or radioactive transformations, but not both. A state-of-practice atmospheric dispersion code capable of performing parallel physical, chemical, and radioactive transformation was not identified. A few atmospheric dispersion codes capable of modeling physical and chemical transport of specific species such as tritium or uranium hexafluoride were identified. Consequently, there is currently no information available that clearly suggests updates to the MACCS code are needed to bring it up to state-of-practice. However, investigations concluded that the MACCS computational framework can currently accommodate multiple physical/chemical forms in one simulation. Additionally, with some major assumptions, the computational framework in MACCS can accommodate parallel physical-chemical and radioactive transformations.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) – Engineered Controls Database and Use

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) addresses the reality that cyber-attacks on engineered systems can have consequences far beyond data loss or disruption of digital networks. When control systems are compromised, safety, reliability, and performance of the physical process itself may be threatened. This database is meant to establish clear examples and guidance for defining and applying engineered controls in CIE. It explains what engineered controls are, how they differ from information security measures, and how they are integrated into system design. The goal is to ensure that resilience is engineered into systems from the outset. Unlike cybersecurity protections that defend the digital layer, engineered controls act directly at the physical and algorithmic levels to guarantee that unacceptable consequences are prevented or limited. CIE keeps the consequences of a cyber attack from impacting the safety, reliability, and performance of engineered systems.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyber-Informed Engineering: Standards Development Organization Quick Start Guide

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an emerging methodology focused on identifying and reducing high-consequence events that may affect physical critical infrastructure systems as a result of their dependence on digital technology. CIE, developed by National Laboratories and promoted by the Department of Energy (DOE), incorporates consequence-focused planning into the design and engineering process from the earliest stages of a project. This guide provides a concise overview of CIE and offers practical insight into how Standards Development Organizations (SDOs) can interpret CIE principles and apply those concepts in updates to various standards. It is important to remember that CIE extends beyond a compliance checklist, emphasizing a broader, interpretive approach. Instead, it encourages an interpretive mindset - a "turning of 'what if' to 'even if'" approach that anticipates and engineers out high-consequence events. The authors encourage SDOs to establish and promote CIE principles as enhancements for more resilient-by-design outcomes across critical infrastructure energy sectors. The 12 core principles of CIE outline specific behaviors and actions that SDOs and engineers may adopt to enhance system resilience. This guide applies these principles in a manner intended to be relevant across various technologies and threat landscapes. We welcome institutions and vendors to identify new or different framework alignments and mappings as we collectively work towards a safer and more reliable digital landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1981

The role of electrostatic charging of small and intermediate sized bodies in the solar system

The role of electrostatic charging of small and intermediate sized bodies in the solar system is reviewed. These bodies include planetary, interplanetary and cometary dust as well as cometary nuclei (at large heliocentric distances), asteroids and the larger bodies in the Saturnian ring system. While this charging has both physical and dynamical consequences for the small dust grains, it has only physical consequences for the larger bodies. The main physical consequences for the small grains are electrostatic erosion ('chipping') and disruption, whereas for the larger bodies they include electrostatic levitation and blow-off of fine loose dust from their surfaces.

Mendis, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Gas dispersion measurements using a mobile Raman lidar system

The exploitation of natural gas resources to supply energy demands has resulted in the need to engineer pipelines and plants capable of handling extremely high pressures and throughputs. Consequently, more attention has been directed to evaluating the consequences of releases of material whether accidental or deliberate in nature. An important aspect of assessing the consequences of a release is an understanding of how gas disperses in the atmosphere over a wide range of release and atmospheric conditions. The most cost effective way of providing such information is through the development and use of reliable theoretical prediction methods. The need for some form of remote sensing device was identified. The various possibilities studied led to the conclusion that LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) offered the most suitable method. The system designed and built is described, and its recent use in monitoring operational ventings from a high pressure transmission system is discussed.

Houston, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

Schultz, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events.

Dean, T.↗