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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Ultrasonic Nondestructive Diagnosis of Cylindrical Batteries Under Various Charging Rates

Lithium-ion batteries have been used increasingly as electrochemical energy storage systems for electronic devices and vehicles. It is important to accurately estimate the state of charge (SoC) of a battery management system to control the battery operation to optimize performance, lifetime, and safety. The current work experimentally leverages ultrasonic diagnostic technology to investigate the SoC of lithium-ion batteries during the charge/discharge processes. A cylindrical-type nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA)–based 2500mAh 20A (INR18650-25R) battery was used for ultrasonic measurements with various charge/discharge rates of C/10.4, C/5.2, and C/1.3 at constant currents. The ultrasonic signals were analyzed for extracting wave velocity and wave attenuation. For all the testing rates, wave velocity increased in the charge process and decreased in the discharge process. Further, velocity profiles corresponding to lower rates of C/10.4 and C/5.2 exhibited primary peaks at the maximum SoCs, whereas the absolute wave velocity of C/1.3 rate showed primary peaks that occurred slightly after the SoC peak, indicating a delayed maximum Young's modulus. The wave attenuation computed for the C/10.4 rate had local maxima in the charge and discharge processes and depicted negative correlations with SoC, ranging from 0% to 18%, and positive correlations with SoC from 18% to 85%. On the other hand, the wave attenuation curves of the C/1.3 rate showed no local peaks and had negative correlations with SoC, ranging from 0% to 28%, and positive correlations with SoC ranging from 28% to 53%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extension of OpenMC for Fixed Source Transmutation Calculations

This report documents work performed under a Strategic Partnership Project between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA). The overall goal of this project is to extend OpenMC [1], a community-developed Monte Carlo particle transport code, to be able to perform fixed-source transmutation calculations. In fission and fusion reactors, the high flux of energetic neutrons causes materials within the reactor to “transmute,” or undergo a nuclear reaction that results in the addition/removal of neutrons and protons from the nucleus of an atom. If subjected to these reactions for long enough, the overall composition and physical properties of the material itself begin to change as a result of transmutation. Such a feature is vital for predicting the decrease in tritium production rate within a breeder blanket during the lifetime of a fusion reactor. OpenMC is capable of simulating neutron transport in fission/fusion systems, thereby allowing it to estimate the flux that causes transmutation. It is also capable of solving the transmutation equations, which determine how the composition of a material changes over time due to neutron irradiation and radioactive decay. However, solving the transmutation equations was previously only possible when the source of neutrons came from a fission system. In a fusion system, the source of neutrons is typically determined by a separate code and then given as an input to the particle transport simulation. This is known as a fixed source calculation. Through this project, we have extended OpenMC to solve the transmutation equations for a fixed source calculation. Evaluating the change in material compositions due to transmutation and its effect on physical properties is of key importance to a range of engineering analyses for fission and fusion systems. For example, in a fusion reactor, estimating the dose rate at different physical locations resulting from irradiated materials in the reactor allows designers to ensure that workers are not exposed to doses beyond applicable regulations. In order to properly dispose of irradiated materials, designers also need to estimate the radiotoxicity, which again relies on knowledge of the material composition at some future time. The specific tasks for this project that were agreed to between ANL and UKAEA were as follows: 1. Make changes and additions in the openmc.deplete and related modules in OpenMC to support transmutation calculations following a fixed source transport simulation. 2. Make necessary changes to OpenMC to model transmutation due to an arbitrary set of reactions needed for fusion applications. Use this new capability to generate a depletion chain file based on the TENDL nuclear data library. 3. Improve the openmc.deplete module in OpenMC to keep track of gases produced as a by-product of nuclear reactions during transmutation calculations. 4. Validate the new capabilities by carrying out fixed-source transmutation calculations on a suitable benchmark problem using OpenMC and a comparable Monte Carlo neutron transport code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Passivated Interfaces and Surface Recombination Velocities in Halide Perovskites

Surfaces and charge-extracting contacts remain major sources of non-radiative recombination loss; limiting the performance of perovskite PV compared to theoretical limits. We investigate mixed-cation mixed-halide perovskites and demonstrate that, with chemical surface passivation, they can achieve >4 μs minority carrier lifetimes, and >20% external PL quantum yields (PLQY), and nearly single-exponential decay kinetics. This high PLQY observed corresponds to ~97% of the Shockley-Queisser theoretical quasi-fermi level splitting, a first for MA-free mixed-cation mixed-halide compositions. The high PLQY and long PL lifetimes allow us to measure average surface recombination velocities (SRV) <10cm/s, with a champion low of ~1cm/s (a conservative estimate). We show how such improvements in SRV should lead to an absolute improvement in PCE of >4% even with the best of contact alignments. We investigate different MA-free high bandgap compositions, including bandgaps relevant for tandem applications (1.7-1.8eV), and demonstrate performance improvements across all these compositions with our surface passivation strategy. Lastly, using a combination of surface characterization techniques, we show Lewis base interactions of the passivating agent with the perovskite surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Passivated Interfaces and Surface Recombination Velocities in Halide Perovskites

Surfaces and charge-extracting contacts remain major sources of non-radiative recombination loss; limiting the performance of perovskite PV compared to theoretical limits. We investigate mixed-cation mixed-halide perovskites and demonstrate that, with chemical surface passivation, they can achieve >4 μs minority carrier lifetimes, and >20% external PL quantum yields (PLQY), and nearly single-exponential decay kinetics. This high PLQY observed corresponds to ~97% of the Shockley-Queisser theoretical quasi-fermi level splitting, a first for MA-free mixed-cation mixed-halide compositions. The high PLQY and long PL lifetimes allow us to measure average surface recombination velocities (SRV) <10cm/s, with a champion low of ~1cm/s (a conservative estimate). We show how such improvements in SRV should lead to an absolute improvement in PCE of >4% even with the best of contact alignments. We investigate different MA-free high bandgap compositions, including bandgaps relevant for tandem applications (1.7-1.8eV), and demonstrate performance improvements across all these compositions with our surface passivation strategy. Lastly, using a combination of surface characterization techniques, we show Lewis base interactions of the passivating agent with the perovskite surfaces.

passivation↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Near-Infrared and Thermal Imager for Mapping Titan's Surface Features

Approximately 10% of the solar insolation reaches the surface of Titan through atmospheric spectral windows. We will discuss a filter based imaging system for a future Titan orbiter that will exploit these windows mapping surface features, cloud regions, polar storms. In the near-infrared (NIR), two filters (1.28 micrometer and 1.6 micrometer), strategically positioned between CH1 absorption bands, and InSb linear array pixels will explore the solar reflected radiation. We propose to map the mid, infrared (MIR) region with two filters: 9.76 micrometer and 5.88-to-6.06 micrometers with MCT linear arrays. The first will map MIR thermal emission variations due to surface albedo differences in the atmospheric window between gas phase CH3D and C2H4 opacity sources. The latter spans the crossover spectral region where observed radiation transitions from being dominated by thermal emission to solar reflected light component. The passively cooled linear arrays will be incorporated into the focal plane of a light-weight thin film stretched membrane 10 cm telescope. A rad-hard ASIC together with an FPGA will be used for detector pixel readout and detector linear array selection depending on if the field-of-view (FOV) is looking at the day- or night-side of Titan. The instantaneous FOV corresponds to 3.1, 15.6, and 31.2 mrad for the 1, 5, and 10 micrometer channels, respectively. For a 1500 km orbit, a 5 micrometer channel pixel represents a spatial resolution of 91 m, with a FOV that spans 23 kilometers, and Titan is mapped in a push-broom manner as determined by the orbital path. The system mass and power requirements are estimated to be 6 kg and 5 W, respectively. The package is proposed for a polar orbiter with a lifetime matching two Saturn seasons.

Aslam, S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of common trap types for capturing wild pigs

Abstract Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are one of the most ecologically harmful invasive vertebrates globally. Due to their negative impacts, wild pig populations are managed via trapping, yet studies investigating various trap designs have been limited in duration, location, and number of trappers. Using data from professional trappers across the southeastern U.S., we evaluated the performance of 3 wild pig trap types (corral, drop, passive net), and the effect of forage season (barren, green‐up, masting) on trapping success. Specifically, we compared trap effectiveness (estimated proportion of targeted wild pigs caught per capture event), trap night effort (number of days to first catch), and the amount of bait and time used per individual take over the lifetime of each trap location across the 3 trap types and forage seasons. Across >850 capture events by 31 trappers, all 3 trap types evaluated were effective at capturing entire social groups of wild pigs. Few differences were observed among trap types, although drop traps in masting season captured a greater estimated proportion of wild pigs per capture event compared to other trap type‐season combinations. Our data also revealed that passive net traps required slightly more bait/wild pig captured than drop traps but there was no difference in the time/wild pig captured among traps. Our findings demonstrate that when operated by wildlife professionals, multiple designs of wild pig traps can be effective at removing targeted groups of wild pigs. Further, our results offer insights regarding the performance of wild pig trap types across seasons that can be used to inform wild pig trapping programs.

Taylor, Charles R. [Warnell School of Forestry and↗
NASA NTRS1994

Primordial main equence binary stars in the globular cluster M71

We report the identification of five short-period variables near the center of the metal-rich globular cluster M71. Our observations consist of multiepoch VI charge coupled device (CCD) images centered on the cluster and covering a 6.3 min x 6.3 min field. Four of these variables are contact eclipsing binaries with periods between 0.35 and 0.41 days; one is a detached or semidetached eclipsing binary with a period of 0.56 days. Two of the variables were first identified as possible eclipsing binaries in an earlier survey by Hodder et al. (1992). We have used a variety of arguments to conclude that all five binary stars are probable members of M71, a result that is consistent with the low number (0.15) of short-period field binaries expected along this line of sight. Based on a simple model of how contact binaries evolve from initially detached binaries, we have determined a lower limit of 1.3% on the frequency of primordial binaries in M71 with initial orbital periods in the range 2.5 - 5 days. This implies that the overall primordial binary frequency, f, is 22(sup +26)(sub -12)% assuming df/d log P = const ( the 'flat' distribution), or f = 57(sup +15)(sub -8)% for df/d log P = 0.032 log P + const as observed for G-dwarf binaries in the solar neighborhood (the 'sloped' distribution). Both estimates of f correspond to binaries with initial periods shorter than 800 yr since any longer-period binaries would have been disrupted over the lifetime of the cluster. Our short-period binary frequency is in excellent agreement with the observed frequency of red-giant binaries observed in globulars if we adopt the flat distribution. For the sloped distribution, our results significantly overestimate the number of red-giant binaries. All of the short-period M71 binaries lie within 1 mag of the luminosity of the cluster turnoff in the color-magnitude diagram despite the fact we should have easily detected similar eclipsing binaries 2 - 2.5 mag fainter than this. We discuss the implications of this on our estimates of the binary frequency in M71 and on the formation of blue stragglers.

Yan, Lin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the photophysical and photochemical characteristics of green-emitting cerium(III) mono-cyclooctatetraenide complexes

The photophysical and photochemical reactivity of the organometallic mono(cyclooctatetraenide)-Ce(III) complexes: [(C 8 H 8 )Ce(μ-X)(THF) 2 ] 2 X = O 3 SCF 3 - (1), Cl - (2), were studied. Here, in the course of these studies, a new polymorph of [(C 8 H 8 )Ce(μ-O 3 SCF 3 )(THF) 2 ] 2 (1) was described. Photoluminescence (PL) studies of 1 and 2 showed characteristic excitation and emission bands in the visible region, with bright green light emission under light irradiation from states corresponding to the 5d → 4f transition. Complexes 1 and 2 exhibit relatively long lifetime of 205.4 ± 0.2 and 145.8 ± 0.4 ns respectively. And the quantum yields (Φ) for 1 and 2 are 0.180 and 0.068 respectively. Electrochemical studies were performed on complexes 1 and 2 with a reversible Ce(III)/Ce(IV) redox couple recorded at $E_{1/2}$ = -1.53 V versus the Fc/Fc + for 2. Complex 1 shows an irreversible Ce(III/IV) oxidation wave. Complexes 1 and 2 revealed strongly-reducing, estimated, excited state reduction potentials ($E^*_{1/2}$) of -3.31 and -4.02 V versus the Fc/Fc + respectively, with small Stokes shifts of 0.12 eV. With their associated relatively long lifetimes, small Stokes shifts and large, negative $E^*_{1/2}$ values, both complexes were evaluated as potential photosensitisers for halogen atom transfer (XAT) using a test reaction of the dehalogenation of benzyl chloride.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverter Reliability Estimation for Advanced Inverter Functionality

In the near future, grid operators are expected to regularly use advanced distributed energy resource (DER) functions, defined in IEEE 1547-2018, to perform a range of grid-support operations. Many of these functions adjust the active and reactive power of the device through commanded or autonomous modes, which will produce new stresses on the grid-interfacing power electronics components, such as DC/AC inverters. In previous work, multiple DER devices were instrumented to evaluate additional component stress under multiple reactive power setpoints. We utilize quasi-static time-series simulations to determine voltage-reactive power mode (volt-var) mission profile of inverters in an active power system. Mission profiles and loss estimates are then combined to estimate the reduction of the useful life of inverters from different reactive power profiles. It was found that the average lifetime reduction was approximately 0.15% for an inverter between standard unity power factor operation and the IEEE 1547 default volt-var curve based on thermal damage due to switching in the power transistors. For an inverter with an expected 20-year lifetime, the 1547 volt-var curve would reduce the expected life of the device by 12 days. This framework for determining an inverter's useful life from experimental and modeling data can be applied to any failure mechanism and advanced inverter operation.

component degradation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Downhole Sensing and Event-Driven Sensor Fusion for Depth-of-Cut Based Autonomous Fault Response and Drilling Optimization

Achieving robust and efficient drilling is a critical part of reducing the cost of geothermal energy exploration and extraction. Drilling performance is often evaluated using one or more of three key metrics: depth of cut (DOC), rate of penetration (ROP), and mechanical specific energy (MSE). All three of these quantities are related to each other. DOC refers to the depth a bit penetrates into rock during drilling. This is an important quantity for estimating bit behavior. ROP is the simply the DOC multiplied by the rotational rate, and represents how quickly the drill bit is advancing through the ground. ROP is often the parameter used for drilling control and optimization. Finally, MSE provides insight into drilling efficiency and rock type. MSE calculations rely on ROP, drilling force, and drilling torque. Surface-based sensors at the top of the drill are often used to measure all these quantities. However, top-hole measurements can deviate substantially from the behavior at the bit due to lag, vibrations, and friction. Therefore, relying only on top-hole information can lead to suboptimal drilling control. In this work, we describe recent progress towards estimating ROP, DOC, and MSE using down-hole sensing. We assume down-hole measurements of torque, weight-on-bit (WOB). Our hypothesis is that these measurements can provide more rapid and accurate measures of drilling performance. We show how a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) machine learning algorithm can provide rapid and accurate performance when evaluated on experimental data taken from Sandia’s Hard Rock Drilling Facility. In addition, we implement our algorithms on an embedded system intended to emulate a bottom-hole-assembly for sensing and estimation. Our experimental results show that DOC can be estimated accurately and in real-time. These estimates when combined with measurements for rotary speed, torque, and force can provide improved estimates for ROP and MSE. These results have the potential to enable better drilling assessment, improved control, and extended component lifetimes.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

EUVE/XTE orbit decay study

The Explorer Platform (EP) program currently comprises two missions, the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and the X-ray Timing Explorer (XTE), each of which consists of a scientific payload mounted to the EP. The EP has no orbit maintenance capability. The EP with the EUVE payload will be launched first. At the end of the EUVE mission, the spacecraft will be serviced by the Space Transportation System (STS), and the EUVE instrument will be exchanged for the XTE. The XTE mission will continue until reentry or reservicing by the STS. Because the missions will be using the EP sequentially, the orbit requirements are unusually constrained by orbit decay rates. The initial altitude must be selected so that, by the end of the EUVE mission (2.5 years), the spacecraft will have decayed to an altitude within the STS capabilities. In addition, the payload exchange must occur at an altitude that ensures meeting the minimum XTE mission lifetime (3 years) because no STS reboost will be available. Studies were performed using the Goddard Mission Analysis System to estimate the effects of mass, cross-sectional area, and solar flux on the fulfillment of mission requirements. In addition to results from these studies, conclusions are presented as to the accuracy of the Marshall Space Flight Center solar flux predictions.

Richon, K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1989

Numerous topics in flight mechanics and estimation were discussed. Satellite attitude control, quaternion estimation, orbit and attitude determination, spacecraft maneuvers, spacecraft navigation, gyroscope calibration, spacecraft rendevous, and atmospheric drag model calculations for spacecraft lifetime prediction are among the topics covered.

Stengle, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2003

Monitoring of Observation Errors in the Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of solar ultravioiet radiation. The ozone layer is currently in a fragile state because of depletion caused by man-made chemicals, especially chlorofluorocarbons. The state of the ozone layer is being monitored and evaluated by scientific experts around the world, in order to help policy makers assess the impacts of international protocols that control the production and release of ozone depleting chemicals. Scientists use a variety ozone measurements and models in order to form a comprehensive picture about the current state of the ozone layer, and to predict the future behavior (expected to be a recovery, as the abundance of the depleting chemicals decreases). Among the data sets used, those from satellite-borne instruments have the advantage of providing a wealth of information about the ozone distribution over most of the globe. Several instruments onboard American and international satellites make measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, from which atmospheric ozone amounts are estimated; long-term measurement programs enable monitoring of trends in ozone. However, the characteristics of satellite instruments change in time. For example, the instrument lenses through which measurements are made may deteriorate over time, or the satellite orbit may drift so that measurements over each location are made later and later in the day. These changes may increase the errors in the retrieved ozone amounts, and degrade the quality of estimated ozone amounts and of their variability. Our work focuses on combining the satellite ozone data with global models that capture atmospheric motion and ozone chemistry, using advanced statistical techniques: this is known as data assimilation. Our method provides a three-dimensional global ozone distribution that is consistent with both the satellite measurements and with our understanding of processes (described in the models) that control ozone distribution. Through the monitoring of statistical properties of the agreement between the data and the model, this approach also enables us to detect changes in the quality of ozone data retrieved from satellite-borne instrument measurements. This paper demonstrates that calculations of the changes in satellite data quality, and the impact these changes on the estimates of the global ozone distribution, can assist in maintaining the uniform quality of the satellite ozone data throughout the lifetime of these instruments, thus contributing to our understanding of long-term ozone change.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS1992

Lifetime of binary asteroids versus gravitational encounters and collisions

We investigate the effect on the dynamics of a binary asteroid in the case of a near encounter with a third body. The dynamics of the binary is modeled as a two-body problem perturbed by an approaching body in the following ways: near encounters and collisions with a component of the system. In each case, the typical value of the two-body energy variation is estimated, and a random walk for the cumulative effect is assumed. Results are applied to some binary asteroid candidates. The main conclusion is that the collisional disruption is the dominant effect, giving lifetimes comparable to or larger than the age of the solar system.

Chauvineau, Bertrand↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermally Conductive Backsheets (TCB) of PV Modules: Positive Impacts on Performance, Lifetime and LCOE

The operating temperatures of photovoltaic (PV) modules can be impacted by the selection of specific packaging materials, e.g., backsheets and encapsulants. This research focuses on the evaluation of operating temperature reduction of one-cell modules by comparing conventional Tedlar/polyester/Tedlar (TPT) backsheet with novel thermally conductive backsheets (TCBs) materials. A large number of one-cell modules with two TCB types (TCB_A and TCB_B) and baseline TPT type were fabricated and installed in three different climatic conditions of the hot-dry desert in Arizona (high and low wind speed locations) and North Carolina (temperate with low wind speed location). In this study, these two TCBs were compared with conventional TPT backsheet in terms of performance, lifetime and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The field results were analyzed for thermal performance of TCBs compared to TPT at three sites for two and half years. This study concludes that the thermal and electrical performances of the PV modules can be improved by using TCB_A in hot and dry climate sites and TCB_B at temperate climate sites. Therefore, the lifetime of TCB-based modules is expected to be higher than TPT-based modules. Using backsheet-specific power degradation levels and assuming the same cost for both types of backsheets, the LCOE of modules using TCBs is estimated to be lower than that of TPT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗