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DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of protein assemblies, the next frontier: The CASP14-CAPRI experiment

Here we present the results for CAPRI Round 50, the fourth joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round comprised a total of twelve targets, including six dimers, three trimers, and three higher-order oligomers. Four of these were easy targets, for which good structural templates were available either for the full assembly, or for the main interfaces (of the higher-order oligomers). Eight were difficult targets for which only distantly related templates were found for the individual subunits. Twenty-five CAPRI groups including eight automatic servers submitted ~1250 models per target. Twenty groups including six servers participated in the CAPRI scoring challenge submitted ~190 models per target. The accuracy of the predicted models was evaluated using the classical CAPRI criteria. The prediction performance was measured by a weighted scoring scheme that takes into account the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group as part of their five top-ranking models. Compared to the previous CASP-CAPRI challenge, top performing groups submitted such models for a larger fraction (70–75%) of the targets in this Round, but fewer of these models were of high accuracy. Scorer groups achieved stronger performance with more groups submitting correct models for 70–80% of the targets or achieving high accuracy predictions. Servers performed less well in general, except for the MDOCKPP and LZERD servers, who performed on par with human groups. In addition to these results, major advances in methodology are discussed, providing an informative overview of where the prediction of protein assemblies currently stands.

protein complexes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

First implementation of gyrokinetic exact linearized Landau collision operator and comparison with models

Gyrokinetic simulations are fundamental to understanding and predicting turbulent transport in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. Previous simulations have used model collision operators with approximate field-particle terms of unknown accuracy and/or have neglected collisional finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects. We have implemented the linearized Fokker–Planck collision operator with exact field-particle terms and full FLR effects in a gyrokinetic code (GENE). The new operator, referred to as “exact” in this paper, allows the accuracy of model collision operators to be assessed. The conservative Landau form is implemented because its symmetry underlies the conservation laws and the H-theorem, and enables numerical methods to preserve this conservation, independent of resolution. The implementation utilizes the finite-volume method recently employed to discretize the Sugama collision model in GENE, allowing direct comparison between the two operators. Results show that the Sugama model appears accurate for the growth rates of trapped electron modes (TEMs) driven only by density gradients, but appreciably underestimates the growth rates as the collisionality and electron temperature gradient increase. The TEM turbulent fluxes near the nonlinear threshold using the exact operator are similar to the Sugama model for the n e = d ln T e /d ln n e = 0 case, but substantially larger than the Sugama model for the n e = 1 case. The FLR effects reduce the growth rates increasingly with wavenumber deepening a “valley” at the intermediate binormal wavenumber as the unstable mode extends from the TEM regime to the electron temperature gradient instability regime. Application to the Hinton–Rosenbluth problem shows that zonal flows decay faster as the radial wavenumber increases and the exact operator yields weaker decay rates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2023

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While the InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model’s accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017, in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Urban flooding↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-Classical Trajectory Calculation of Rate Constants Using an Ab Initio Trained Machine Learning Model (aML-MD) with Multifidelity Data

Machine learning (ML) provides a great opportunity for the construction of models with improved accuracy in classical molecular dynamics (MD). However, the accuracy of a ML trained model is limited by the quality and quantity of the training data. Generating large sets of accurate ab initio training data can require significant computational resources. Furthermore, inconsistent or incompatible data with different accuracies obtained using different methods may lead to biased or unreliable ML models that do not accurately represent the underlying physics. Recently, transfer learning showed its potential for avoiding these problems as well as for improving the accuracy, efficiency, and generalization of ML models using multifidelity data. In this work, ab initio trained ML-based MD (aML-MD) models are developed through transfer learning using DFT and multireference data from multiple sources with varying accuracy within the Deep Potential MD framework. Further, the accuracy of the force field is demonstrated by calculating rate constants for the H + HO 2 → H 2 + 3 O 2 reaction using quasi-classical trajectories. We show that the aML-MD model with transfer learning can accurately predict the rate constants while reducing the computational cost by more than five times compared to the use of more expensive quantum chemistry training data sets. Hence, the aML-MD model with transfer learning shows great potential in using multifidelity data to reduce the computational cost involved in generating the training set for these potentials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2003

Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System

The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Results indicate that GRACE will be able to observe seasonal signals at half-wavelengths ranging from 1000 to 10000 km, and may be able to observe secular trends at half- wavelengths of greater than 2000-3000 km for soil moisture and snow depth if they are as large as some of the climate experiments predict.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2012

International Space Station Modal Correction Analysis

This paper summarizes the on-orbit modal test and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the ISS Stage ULF4, DTF S4-1A, October 11,2010, GMT 284/06:13:00.00. The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate analytical models with the intent to verify the ISS critical interface dynamic loads and improve fatigue life prediction. For the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic responses were collected with Russian vehicles attached and without the Orbiter attached to the ISS. ISS instrumentation systems that were used to collect the dynamic responses during the DTF S4-1A included the Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS), Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS), Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS), Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and ISS External Cameras. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical modal parameters were performed to assess the accuracy of models for the ISS configuration under consideration. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. Section 2.0 of this report presents the math model used in the analysis. This section also describes the ISS configuration under consideration and summarizes the associated primary modes of interest along with the fundamental appendage modes. Section 3.0 discusses the details of the ISS Stage ULF4 DTF S4-1A test. Section 4.0 discusses the on-orbit instrumentation systems that were used in the collection of the data analyzed in this paper. The modal analysis approach and results used in the analysis of the collected data are summarized in Section 5.0. The model correlation and validation effort is reported in Section 6.0. Conclusions and recommendations drawn from this analysis are included in Section 7.0.

Fotz[atrocl. Lrostom↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1987

An integrated approach for friction damper design

A procedure is outlined for determining the optimal design of friction dampers for high speed turbomachinery blading. The procedure includes: an integration of bench test results with finite element analysis and a single mode blade model to ensure accuracy of the analytical model and improve reliability of the friction damper design; an extension of the single mode blade model to predict the engine behavior of friction dampers; and a new way of viewing analytical and experimental results to determine optimal design parameters when the levels of excitation and damping in the system are unknown. Analysis and experiments are performed on a test disk in order to demonstrate and verify the accuracy of the design procedure.

Cameron, T. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micrometer: Micromechanics transformer for predicting full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials

Predicting mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials across scales remains a significant challenge. Traditional computational methods often struggle with complex and multiscale nature of these materials, limiting their effectiveness in real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we introduce Micrometer, a vision transformer based deep learning model designed to predict full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials, bridging the gap between computer vision and solid mechanics problems. We show that Micrometer, trained on a large-scale high-resolution dataset of 2D fiber-reinforced composites, can achieve state-of-the-art performance in predicting microscale strain fields across a wide range of material properties and loading conditions. Our model demonstrates accuracy and computational efficiency in applications such as computational homogenization and multiscale modeling, reducing computational time by up to two orders of magnitude compared to conventional numerical solvers while maintaining less than 1 % errors in predicting macroscale stress fields. Furthermore, we showcase Micrometer’s adaptability through transfer learning experiments on new materials with limited data, highlighting its potential to tackle diverse scenarios in computational solid mechanics. These results represent a significant step towards AI-driven innovation in materials science, addressing the limitations of traditional numerical methods and paving the way for more efficient simulations of heterogeneous materials across various industrial applications.

Composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytical-based simulation approach for an anion exchange membrane fuel cell

An analytical and empirical-based 1-D, non-isothermal, steady-state model for anion exchange membrane fuel cell capable of capturing two-phase phenomena is presented in this study. Coupled multi-physics including mass and charge transport, electrochemical reactions, heat transfer, and two-phase water transport are considered in the model and the simulated results are compared to experimental data. To better represent actual material properties and localized conditions, the model applies multilayer discretization in the gas diffusion electrode to enhance prediction accuracy. The model successfully predicts the baseline performance at 70 °C, 131 kPa abs., 92% RH with pure H 2 /O 2 gas as well as the limiting current at 10% H 2 . The robust simulation approach allows for simplistic and accurate estimation of cell performance without the complications of applying two-phase parameters and expensive computational need for numerical models. In addition, the results from the sensitivity studies of material properties and operating conditions provide valuable insights on water management strategies and optimal component design for advancing anion exchange membrane fuel cell technology.

1-D model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of simplified model for injection rate prediction of diesel injectors during transient and steady operation

Determining the injection rate of the diesel injector during the transient short injection operations is a critical matter to enhance the combustion process by improving air/fuel mixture formation. In this regard, numerous injection models have been suggested in the literature to predict the injection rate accurately. However, such algorithms have not precisely predicted the rate of injection (ROI) in transient short injection events. In addition, most of those models require many input parameters to characterize hydraulic and mechanical subsystems in the injector, which can make them inconvenient to tune for different injector specifications, in other words not suitable for universal usage. Therefore, our study aims to develop a simple injection model that can predict injection rate precisely in the short and long injection durations considering relatively fewer input parameters. The model traces the pressure variation inside the sac based on the bulk modulus theory to predict nozzle exit velocity, thus the injection rate of the injector. In the algorithm, the bulk modulus of fuel (E) and discharge coefficients of the nozzle hole and needle seat (C d,H and C d,N ) have been considered to vary rather than set constant during the injection process since such flow parameters would have a critical impact on the flow development at the transient stage, thus affecting the injection rate of diesel injectors. Here with this modelling strategy, the accuracy of the new model on ROI prediction was confirmed with acceptable model error for both short and long injection durations by validating against experimental results. To understand the effect of the new model scheme on ROI prediction, ROI results with the new model have been discussed by comparing it with the ROI results predicted with constant flow parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal loading analysis of the ring injection dump for the Spallation Neutron Source facility

The ring injection dump (RID) is the largest beam dump in the Spallation Neutron Source facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and accepts a fraction of the beam from the ring that is not captured in the ring during injection. Thermo-fluid modeling of the RID components was performed during the initial design by using the software ANSYS CFX to characterize the power rating for the RID. From the calculations, the power rating was lowered from 200 kW to 150 kW, at 1.3 GeV beam energy due to concerns regarding the heating of the concrete structure. The Proton Power Upgrade project scope included reevaluating the power limit to the RID in anticipation that increasing it would provide more operational flexibility. The focus was on the shielding because it was the limiting factor, and data collected from thermocouples installed on the structure were used to benchmark the analysis. A three-stage process was adopted in the latest study. First, the already existing steady-state calculations were validated and extended with the latest Monte Carlo N-Particle source term calculations. Second, transient calculations were conducted to capture the dynamic state of the system in response to the energy dumped to the RID during the following operational period of the beam from 2005–2019 (14 years), and sensitivity analyses of crucial parameters were performed to benchmark the model with reasonable accuracy. Finally, an idealized transient cycle analysis was conducted with realistic duty factors to predict the temperature distribution at higher beam powers. Overall, the results confirmed the accuracy of the original steady state model but allowed the development of a new validated transient model with higher accuracy for future analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗