Results for “traffic prediction” — Page 26

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helicopter Pilot Assessments of the Airborne Collision Avoidance System XR With Automated Maneuvering

The Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X) is a next-generation collision avoidance tool developed to support different aircraft types and operations. The rotorcraft variant – referred to as ACAS XR – is designed to accommodate existing helicopter platforms as well as in-development, electric vertical takeoff and landing concepts, which are critical to the emerging concept of operations referred to as Advanced Air Mobility. The fundamental role of ACAS XR is to provide Detect and Avoid (DAA) and/or Collision Avoidance (CA) protection against airborne traffic. DAA alerting and guidance in the context of ACAS XR is caution-level and “suggestive,” and is to be used by the pilot if, and when, they decide to maneuver against an identified threat to DAA “well clear.” The CA alerting, by contrast, is warning-level and “directive,” with the pilot required to comply with the associated guidance to prevent a predicted Near Midair Collision (NMAC). The CA alerts generated by ACAS XR are referred to as Resolution Advisories (RAs) consistent with previous CA systems. Unlike earlier CA systems, ACAS XR issues RAs in the horizontal and vertical dimensions as well as multi-axis RAs (referred to as “Blended” RAs). According to the Minimal Operational Performance Standards of DAA systems for Unmanned Aircraft Systems, maneuvers to comply with RAs may be automated, whereas maneuvers based on DAA alerting assume a manual response. The current study was a human-in-the-loop simulation that presented rotorcraft pilots with ACAS XR alerts and guidance in a fixed-base eVTOL simulator with varying levels of automation. Objective results showed that pilots complied with all RAs within the expected 5-second time window and responded to DAA alerts quicker than in earlier studies with ACAS XU. Pilots often made larger horizontal deviations during Manual RAs, but often favored vertical and blended maneuvers. No NMACs occurred, and losses of well clear were mainly attributed to the obligation of the pilots and system to maneuver only after the CA phase of the encounter had begun. Other losses were due to pilots’ noncompliance or disregard for ACAS XR’s alerting and guidance. Noncompliance with RAs most frequently occurred when pilots determined they were too close to the terrain to continue to follow Descend RAs, performing vertical maneuvers instead of following Horizontal RAs, or rejecting Horizontal RA updates because they felt that enough maneuvering had been performed. Subjectively, pilots found the DAA and RA alerting and guidance intuitive and useful for VFR helicopter operations. Slightly more pilots preferred the Automated RA condition to the Manual RA condition. Lastly, they also felt that ACAS led to occasional unsafe Descend RAs. Caveats and future implications are discussed.

eVTOL↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Air Mobility Operations & Automation Part II Technical Lecture

The Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X) is a next-generation collision avoidance tool developed to support different aircraft types and operations. The rotorcraft variant – referred to as ACAS XR – is designed to accommodate existing helicopter platforms as well as in-development, electric vertical takeoff and landing concepts, which are critical to the emerging concept of operations referred to as Advanced Air Mobility. The fundamental role of ACAS XR is to provide Detect and Avoid (DAA) and/or Collision Avoidance (CA) protection against airborne traffic. DAA alerting and guidance in the context of ACAS XR is caution-level and “suggestive,” and is to be used by the pilot if, and when, they decide to maneuver against an identified threat to DAA “well clear.” The CA alerting, by contrast, is warning-level and “directive,” with the pilot required to comply with the associated guidance to prevent a predicted Near Midair Collision (NMAC). The CA alerts generated by ACAS XR are referred to as Resolution Advisories (RAs) consistent with previous CA systems. Unlike earlier CA systems, ACAS XR issues RAs in the horizontal and vertical dimensions as well as multi-axis RAs (referred to as “Blended” RAs). According to the Minimal Operational Performance Standards of DAA systems for Unmanned Aircraft Systems, maneuvers to comply with RAs may be automated, whereas maneuvers based on DAA alerting assume a manual response. The current presentation discusses two human-in-the-loop simulations that presented rotorcraft pilots with ACAS XR alerts and guidance in eVTOL simulators with varying levels of automation. It also presents overviews of these studies as well as how they assisted live flight tests, which will occur throughout 2023.

air taxis↗

NASA NTRS1974

Simulation of 4D RNAV in the terminal area

A terminal area control concept based on 4D RNAV (3D plus time) has been developed to take full advantage of STOL aircrafts' unique performance capabilities. The 4D RNAV concept involves an airborne system, a ground system and a protocol for information exchange between aircraft and ground. The function of the airborne system is to synthesize the curved three dimensional (3D) flight path, to predict and control the landing time (4D) and to generate flight director or autopilot commands. The airborne system assumes the ground system will specify the 3D path and assign a conflict-free landing time. A real time simulation of this concept has been developed to evaluate its effectiveness for terminal areas control of STOL aicraft. Key elements of the simulation are a computer graphics traffic display, a scheduling display and a keyboard language for issuing controller commands to simulated aircraft. Initial results and planned experiments are described.

Tobias, L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Modeling

A prediction of the future population of satellites, satellite fragments, and assorted spacecraft debris in Earth orbit can be reliably made only after three conditions are satisfied: (1) the size and spatial distributions of these Earth-orbiting objects are established at some present-day time; (2) the processes of orbital evolution, explosions, hypervelocity impact fragmentation, and atmospheric drag are understood; and (3) a reasonable traffic model for the future launch rate of Earth-orbiting objects is assumed. The theoretician will then take these three quantities as input data and will carry through the necessary mathematica and numerical analyses to project the present-day orbital population into the future.

Zook, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of the National Throughput Benefits of the Civil Tilt Rotor

The air transportation system is a key part of the U.S. and global economic infrastructure. In recent years, this system, by any measure of usage - operations, enplanements, or revenue passenger miles (RPMs) - has grown rapidly. The rapid growth in demand has not been matched; however, by commensurate increases in the ability of airports and the airspace system to handle the additional traffic. As a result, the air transportation system is approaching capacity and airlines will face excessive delays or significant constraints on service unless capacity is expanded. To expand capacity, the air traffic management system must be improved. To improve the air traffic management system, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aerospace Technology Enterprise developed the strategic goal of tripling air traffic throughput over the next 10 years, in all weather conditions, while at least maintaining current safety standards. As the first step in meeting that goal, the NASA Intercenter Systems Analysis Team (ISAT) is evaluating the contribution of existing programs to meet that goal. A major part of the study is an examination of the ability of the National Airspace System (NAS) to meet the predicted growth in travel demand and the potential benefits of technology infusion to expand NAS capacity. We previously analyzed the effects of the addition of two technology elements - Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) and Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT). The next program we must analyze is not specific to airspace or aircraft technology. The program incorporates a fundamentally different vehicle to improve throughput: the civil tilt rotor (CTR). The CTR has the unique operating characteristic of being able to take off and land like a rotorcraft (vertical take off and landing, or VTOL, capability) but cruises like a traditional fixed-wing aircraft. The CTR also can operate in a short take off and landing (STOL) mode; generally, with a greater payload capacity (i.e., more passengers) than when operating in the VTOL mode. CTR could expand access to major airports without interfering with fixed-wing aircraft operating on congested runways and it could add service to new markets without the infrastructure support needed for fixed-wing aircraft. During FY 1999, we preliminarily assessed the feasibility of operating CTRs at two major U.S. airports as part of the annual review of NASA aerospace goals by the ISAT. This current study expands the analysis and concepts of that study to the complete NAS to quantify the national throughput effects of the CTR.

Johnson, Jesse↗

NASA NTRS1981

Justification for, and design of, an economical programmable multiple flight simulator

The considered research interests in air traffic control (ATC) studies revolve about the concept of distributed ATC management based on the assumption that the pilot has a cockpit display of traffic and navigation information (CDTI) via CRT graphics. The basic premise is that a CDTI equipped pilot can, in coordination with a controller, manage a part of his local traffic situation thereby improving important aspects of ATC performance. A modularly designed programmable flight simulator system is prototyped as a means of providing an economical facility of up to eight simulators to interface with a mainframe/graphics system for ATC experimentation, particularly CDTI-distributed management in which pilot-pilot interaction can have a determining effect on system performance. Need for a multiman simulator facility is predicted on results from an earlier three simulator facility.

Kreifeldt, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

An advisory system for predicting and resolving airspace violations based on four-dimensional guidance techniques

New heuristics are integrated with four-dimensional guidance techniques developed by NASA in order to automate the prediction and resolution of airspace violations, and three rules are derived to reduce the amount of computation time for conflict detection. Controller experience has been used to establish techniques for resolving potential conflicts including speed control, altitude maneuvers, and horizontal flight maneuvers. Current aircraft states, flight plans, and extrapolation of aircraft trajectories are used to synthesize four-dimensional trajectories, and the state of the air traffic and the interaction between aircraft are projected into the future using the four-dimensional algorithms. The situation is immediately updated to incorporate any new information. Potential conflicts among multiple aircraft are resolved by fast sequential resolution of potential conflicts between aircraft pairs, one at a time.

Lee, Homer Q.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations for Part 139 Airports

Today’s airports are complex multi-faceted ecosystems. Currently, of the 517certificatedairports, 270arerequired to use safety management systems (SMSs) to identify and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks and to voluntarily share safety data with commercial operators and tenants. Airports manage a wide variety of hazards. These traffic hubs have direct responsibilities, such as removing foreign object debris from runways and taxiways and configuring runways to help prevent against incursions and tail strikes during takeoff. To ensure safety in the future NAS, the National Academies recommended an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). An IASMS will employ services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) to identify and mitigate hazards that are proactively and predictively managed based on data analytics of detected anomalies, precursors, and trends. SFCs would scale with airport complexity and environmental conditions using increasingly automated systems to respond proactively to hazards and, by using integrated data sources and predictive safety analytical methods, discover new, never before seen risks.

Ellis, K↗

NASA NTRS2024

In-Time Safety Management for Part 139 Airports

Today’s airports are complex multi-faceted ecosystems. Currently, of the 517 certificated airports, 270 are required to use safety management systems (SMSs) to identify and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks and to voluntarily share safety data with commercial operators and tenants. Airports manage a wide variety of hazards. These traffic hubs have direct responsibilities, such as removing foreign object debris from runways and taxiways and configuring runways to help prevent against incursions and tail strikes during takeoff. To ensure safety in the future NAS, the National Academies recommended an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). An IASMS will employ services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) to identify and mitigate hazards that are proactively and predictively managed based on data analytics of detected anomalies, precursors, and trends. SFCs would scale with airport complexity and environmental conditions using increasingly automated systems to respond proactively to hazards and, by using integrated data sources and predictive safety analytical methods, discover new, never before seen risks.

IASMS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Assessment of the 60 Km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) with Near Real-Time Aircraft Reports

NASA is developing the Center-TBACON Advisory System (CTAS), a set of Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) to enable controllers to increase airspace capacity and flight efficiency. A crucial component of the CTAS, or any ATM DST, is the computation of the time-of-flight of aircraft along flight path segments which requires accurate knowledge of the wind through which the aircraft are flying. CTAS currently uses wind information from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a numerical prediction model run operationally by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There exists near real-time wind observations from commercial aircraft that can be used to increase the accuracy of the RUC wind forecasts via the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminal Winds (TW) algorithm. This report presents a study based on the application of the ITWS TW algorithm as an improvement to the baseline RUC product. Terminal Winds generally does not support the full Center airspace; the domain of the prototype MIT/LLITWS TW system was increased to cover the Denver Center airspace to support this study. This study has three goals: 1) determine the errors in the baseline 60-kilometer resolution RUC forecast wind fields relative to the needs of en route DSTs such as CTAS; 2) determine the benefit of using the TW algorithm to refine the RUC forecast wind fields with near real-tlme Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) aircraft reports, and 3) identify factors that influence wind field errors in order to improve accuracy and estimate errors in real time. The data for this study were collected over a one-year period for the Denver Center airspace and over one miIlion verification observations were used. This study is part of a larger effort funded by NASA which includes the NOAA/FSL.

Cole, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Advanced flight control system study

A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts.

Hartmann, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2021

Separation at Crossing Waypoints Under Wind Uncertainty in Urban Air Mobility

To enable high-density operations in major metropolitan areas, urban air mobility networks are anticipated to have air traffic management with higher levels of autonomy. To ensure that this type of autonomy is feasible, one of the critical steps from a safety and efficiency perspective is understanding various factors that affect the spatial separation between airborne flights and ensure that these factors can be managed. In terms of separation assurance and scheduling, an important real-world concern is that future states of aircraft cannot be perfectly predicted. The focus of this research paper is to understand how these prediction errors affect separation and scheduling services and to explore mitigation strategies to handle these errors. In this research, we have simulated these types of uncertainty by adding wind-prediction errors to trajectory predictions for separation. With these wind-prediction errors, we decompose the problem into two separate questions. First, using both simulation and analytical methods, we look at conflict-detection-only scenarios to understand how the wind errors affect required minimum temporal separation between crossing flights to ensure a specific spatial separation. Next, we study how trajectory errors effect conflict resolution, and we explore different combinations of scheduling and separation assurance to mitigate the effects of uncertainty between crossing flights. The conflict resolution algorithm aims to minimize necessary temporal separation between crossing flights under uncertainty, still ensuring safety-critical spatial separation. In summary, this research suggests that the required minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint is dependent on factors such as inbound crossing angle, the relative angle between wind direction and bearing of each route, wind magnitude, wind magnitude uncertainty, nominal cruise airspeed of aircraft, and look-ahead time of the conflict detection algorithm. This research also suggests that different combinations of scheduling and separation have different qualitative results. Using a combination of strategic, flow-based scheduling, tactical scheduling at crossings, speed control near crossing points, and separation management leads to a system that is insensitive to trajectory prediction errors with high throughput and flexibility for aircraft away from shared resources.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2011

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗

NASA NTRS2019

Collaborative Seamless Manager for Airspace Resources and Traffic

In today's NAS, airlines conduct pre-departure flight planning with limited information about traffic congestion. Then, as events evolve (pre-departure, on the surface, or inflight) and are impacted by congestion, limited options for changing flight plans are offered to the airlines, and, in some cases, flight plans are changed by air traffic managers on behalf of the airlines. For the airlines, this produces flight plan uncertainty and possible disruption to their business plans. The Collaborative Seamless Manager of Airspace Resources and Traffic (CSMART) is a tool being developed for the 2045 Next Gen System that will enhance the airlines' ability to flight plan, both pre-departure and during flight. CSMART achieves this, using the UTM architecture approach, by connecting via the internet airlines with other airlines and airlines with FAA agents. Flight plans, including digital, discrete planned trajectories with tolerances, are passed through the connection. Planned trajectories are used to create probabilistic predictions of when and where congestion will occur. Pre-departure, airline agents will use the predictions to collaboratively and seamlessly create flight plans that avoid congestion or go through it, depending on business objectives. In cases, where demand exceeds capacity and priorities need to be set, airline agents will have the ability to negotiate with each other to set them. Moreover, if flights are impacted by congestion during flight, CSMART will allow airlines more real-time decision making options for changing flight plans. This seminar presents the general CSMART concept and tool and research needed to develop it.

Windhorst, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular inefficiency that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based metering of internal departures, or TMA scheduling. Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot be easily fitted into the overhead stream. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. Depending on how the double delay is defined between 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent of arrivals at EWR experienced double delays in this period. However, this represents between 21 percent and 62 percent of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling. A deep dive into the data reveals that two causes of high internal departure scheduling delays are upstream flights making up time between their estimated departure clearance times (EDCTs) and entry into time based metering, which undermines the sequencing and spacing underlying the flight EDCTs, and high demand on TMA, when TMA airborne metering delays are high. Data mining methods (currently) including logistic regression, support vector machines and K-nearest neighbors are used to predict the occurrence of double delays and high internal departure scheduling delays with accuracies up to 0.68. So far, key indicators of double delay and high internal departure scheduling delay are TMA virtual runway queue size, and the degree to which estimated runway demand based on TMA estimated times of arrival has changed relative to the estimated runway demand based on EDCTs. However, more analysis is needed to confirm this.

traffic management advisor↗

NASA NTRS1984

Mixing 4D-Equipped and Unequipped Aircraft in the Terminal Area

On-board 4D guidance systems, which predict and control the touchdown time of an aircraft to an accuracy of a few seconds throughout the descent, were developed and demonstrated in several flight test programs. However, in addition to refinements of the on board system, two important issues still need to be considered. First, in order to make effective use of these on-board systems, it is necessary to understand and develop the interactions of the airborne and air traffic control (ATC) system in the proposed advanced environment. Unless the total system is understood, the advanced on-board system may prove unusable from an ATC standpoint. Second, in planning for a future system in which all aircraft are 4D equipped, it is necessary to confront the transition situation in which some percentage of traffic must still be handled by conventional means. In terms of 4D, this means that some traffic must still be given radar vectors and speed clearances (that is, be spaced by conventional distance separation techniques), while the 4D-equipped aircraft need to be issued time assignments. These apparent differences are reconciled and efficient ATC operation is developed.

Tobias, L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

ADS-B Mixed sUAS and NAS System Capacity Analysis and DAA Performance

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) technology was introduced more than twenty years ago to improve surveillance within the US National Airspace Space (NAS) as well as in many other countries. Via the NextGen initiative, implementation of ADS-B technology across the US is planned in stages between 2012 and 2025. ADS-B's automatic one second epoch packet transmission exploits on-board GPS-derived navigational information to provide position information, as well as other information including vehicle identification, ground speed, vertical rate and track angle. The purpose of this technology is to improve surveillance data accuracy and provide access to better situational awareness to enable operational benefits such as shorter routes, reduced flight time and fuel burn, and reduced traffic delays, and to allow air traffic controllers to manage aircraft with greater safety margins. Other than the limited amount of information bits per packet that can be sent, ADS-B's other hard-limit limitation is capacity. Small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) can utilize limited ADS-B transmission power, in general, thus allowing this technology to be considered for use within a combined NAS and sUAS environment, but the potential number and density of sUAS predicted for future deployment calls into question the ability of ADS-B systems to meet the resulting capacity requirement. Hence, studies to understand potential limitations of ADS-B to fulfill capacity requirements in various sUAS scenarios are of great interest. In this paper we, validate/improve on, previous work performed by the MITRE Corporation concerning sUAS power and capacity in a sUAS and General Aviation (GA) mixed environment. In addition, we implement its inherent media access control layer capacity limitations which was not shown in the MITRE paper. Finally, a simple detect and avoid (DAA) algorithm is implemented to display that ADS-B technology is a viable technology for a mixed NAS/sUAS environment even in proposed larger mixed density environments.

Matheou, Konstantin J.↗