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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Range Safety Debris Catalog Analysis in Preparation for the Pad Abort One Flight Test

The Pad Abort One flight test of the Orion Abort Flight Test Program is currently under development with the goal of demonstrating the capability of the Launch Abort System. In the event of a launch failure, this system will propel the Crew Exploration Vehicle to safety. An essential component of this flight test is range safety, which ensures the security of range assets and personnel. A debris catalog analysis was done as part of a range safety data package delivered to the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico where the test will be conducted. The analysis discusses the consequences of an overpressurization of the Abort Motor. The resulting structural failure was assumed to create a debris field of vehicle fragments that could potentially pose a hazard to the range. A statistical model was used to assemble the debris catalog of potential propellant fragments. Then, a thermodynamic, energy balance model was applied to the system in order to determine the imparted velocity to these propellant fragments. This analysis was conducted at four points along the flight trajectory to better understand the failure consequences over the entire flight. The methods used to perform this analysis are outlined in detail and the corresponding results are presented and discussed.

Kutty, Prasad M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

An analysis of ullage heat transfer in the orbital refueling system

The Orbital Refueling System was an experiment flown on Shuttle Mission STS 41-G in October, 1984. Liquid hydrazine fuel was transferred back and forth from one spherical bladder tank to another using pressurized nitrogen as the driving force. Compressive heating of the ullage gas in the receiving tank could lead to a hazardous situation if any hydrazine leaked through to the ullage side of the bladder and was heated above about 175 F, where it can undergo spontaneous exothermic decomposition. Early analysis of the flight data indicated that the ullage compression process was much closer to an isothermal than an adiabatic one. In this study, a thorough review of the pertinent literature was used to make an a priori best-estimate for the ullage gas heat transfer coefficient (defining the Nusselt Number as a function of Reynolds and Rayleigh Numbers). Experimental data from the flight were analyzed in detail. It is evident that there is considerably more heat transfer than can be accounted for by conduction alone, but the observed increases do not correlate well with Reynolds Number, Rayleigh Number or vehicle acceleration. There are large gaps in the present understanding of convective heat transfer in closed containers with internal heat generation, especially in the presence of vibrations or other random disturbances. A program of experiments to fill in these gaps is suggested, covering both ground and orbital environments.

Kauffman, D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Long-term risk analysis associated with nuclear waste disposal in space

An assessment and verification of previous analytic results on the long term risk of earth reentry for hazardous payloads is presented. The two areas were studied: (1) stability of nominal, near-circular storage orbits in the regions between Venus and earth and between earth and Mars, and (2) probability of earth reentry for off-nominal planet-crossing orbits resulting from deployment system failures. In the first area, numerical integrations of the equations of motion are compared with stability predications based on secular perturbation theory. The agreement is good in terms of the heliocentric distances covered and the general behavior of the orbital history, although certain near-resonance situations can lead to difficulty. In the second area, a Monte Carlo simulation of orbital evolution is used and the results compared with Opik's analytic theory of planetary encounters and collision statistics, with data verified to within a close order-of-magnitude.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

Precise Point Positioning (PPP)↗
NASA NTRS2013

Human and Robotic Mission to Small Bodies: Mapping, Planning and Exploration

This study investigates the requirements, performs a gap analysis and makes a set of recommendations for mapping products and exploration tools required to support operations and scientific discovery for near- term and future NASA missions to small bodies. The mapping products and their requirements are based on the analysis of current mission scenarios (rendezvous, docking, and sample return) and recommendations made by the NEA Users Team (NUT) in the framework of human exploration. The mapping products that sat- isfy operational, scienti c, and public outreach goals include topography, images, albedo, gravity, mass, density, subsurface radar, mineralogical and thermal maps. The gap analysis points to a need for incremental generation of mapping products from low (flyby) to high-resolution data needed for anchoring and docking, real-time spatial data processing for hazard avoidance and astronaut or robot localization in low gravity, high dynamic environments, and motivates a standard for coordinate reference systems capable of describing irregular body shapes. Another aspect investigated in this study is the set of requirements and the gap analysis for exploration tools that support visualization and simulation of operational conditions including soil interactions, environment dynamics, and communications coverage. Building robust, usable data sets and visualisation/simulation tools is the best way for mission designers and simulators to make correct decisions for future missions. In the near term, it is the most useful way to begin building capabilities for small body exploration without needing to commit to specific mission architectures.

Neffian, Ara V.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/ Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel

Stennis Space Center (SSC), Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) identified particulate emissions and waste generated from the depainting process of steel structures as hazardous materials to be eliminated or reduced. A Potential Alternatives Report, Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternative Low Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, provided a technical analyses of identified alternatives to the current coating removal processes, criteria used to select alternatives for further analysis, and a list of those alternatives recommended for testing. The initial coating removal alternatives list was compiled using literature searches and stakeholder recommendations. The involved project participants initially considered approximately 13 alternatives. In late 2003, core project members selected the following depainting processes to be further evaluated: (1) Plastic Blast Media-Quickstrip(R)-A. (2) Hard Abrasive-Steel-Magic(R). (3) Sponge Blasting-Sponge-Jet(R). (4) Liquid Nitrogen-NItroJet(R). (5) Mechanical Removal with Vacuum Attachment-DESCO and OCM Clean-Air (6) Laser Coating Removal Alternatives were tested in accordance with the Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, and the Field Evaluation Test Plan for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel. Results of the testing are documented in the Joint Test Report. This Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) focuses on the three alternatives (Quickstrip(R)-A, SteelMagic (R), and Sponge-Jet(R)) that were considered viable alternatives for large area operations based on the results of the field demonstration and lab testing. This CBA was created to help participants determine if implementation of the candidate alternatives is economically justified. Each of the alternatives examined reduced Environmental Activity (EA) Costs-those costs associated with complying with environmental regulations. One alternative, Steel-Magic(R), also showed reduced Direct Costs and reduced total costs.

Lewis, Pattie↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fundamentals of Digital Engineering: Designing for Reliability

The concept of designing for reliability will be introduced along with a brief overview of reliability, redundancy and traditional methods of fault tolerance is presented, as applied to current logic devices. The fundamentals of advanced circuit design and analysis techniques will be the primary focus. The introduction will cover the definitions of key device parameters and how analysis is used to prove circuit correctness. Basic design techniques such as synchronous vs asynchronous design, metastable state resolution time/arbiter design, and finite state machine structure/implementation will be reviewed. Advanced topics will be explored such as skew-tolerant circuit design, the use of triple-modular redundancy and circuit hazards, device transients and preventative circuit design, lock-up states in finite state machines generated by logic synthesizers, device transient characteristics, radiation mitigation techniques. worst-case analysis, the use of timing analyzer and simulators, and others. Case studies and lessons learned from spaceflight designs will be given as examples

Katz, R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Optimal design and use of retry in fault tolerant real-time computer systems

A new method to determin an optimal retry policy and for use in retry of fault characterization is presented. An optimal retry policy for a given fault characteristic, which determines the maximum allowable retry durations to minimize the total task completion time was derived. The combined fault characterization and retry decision, in which the characteristics of fault are estimated simultaneously with the determination of the optimal retry policy were carried out. Two solution approaches were developed, one based on the point estimation and the other on the Bayes sequential decision. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the first approach, and the backward induction for testing hypotheses in the second approach. Numerical examples in which all the durations associated with faults have monotone hazard functions, e.g., exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions are presented. These are standard distributions commonly used for modeling analysis and faults.

Lee, Y. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reliability-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System: A Case Study

In 1986, NASA funded a project to modernize the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnels, including the replacement of obsolescent controls with a modern, automated distributed control system (DCS). The project effort on this system included an independent safety analysis (ISA) of the automation system. The purpose of the ISA was to evaluate the completeness of the hazard analyses which had already been performed on the Modernization Project. The ISA approach followed a tailoring of the risk assessment approach widely used on existing nuclear power plants. The tailoring of the nuclear industry oriented risk assessment approach to the automation system and its role in reliability-based design of the automation system is the subject of this paper.

Carroll, Carol W.↗
NASA NTRS1958

Lightning Hazards to Aircraft Fuel Tanks

The hazards of lightning strokes to aircraft fuel tanks have been investigated in artificial-lightning-generation facilities specifically constructed to duplicate closely the natural lightning discharges to air­ craft determined through flight research programs and analysis of lightning-damaged aircraft over a period of many years. Explosion studies were made in an environmental explosion chamber using small fuel tanks under various simulated flight conditions. The results showed that there is a primary hazard whenever there is direct puncture of the fuel-tank wall, whereas the ignition of fuel by hot spots on tank walls due to lightning strikes is unlikely. Punctures of fuel-tank walls by artificial-lightning discharges produced explosions of the fuel in the mixture range from excessively lean to rich mixtures. None of the aluminum alloys, 0.081 inch thick or over, were punctured by the laboratory discharges representative of natural-lightning discharges to aircraft; however, reliance on this wall thickness for complete pro­tection would not be justified, because occasional strokes are known to be of greater magnitude and because statistics reveal variations in the damage pattern. Data gathered by the Lightning and Transients Research Institute on lightning strokes to aircraft show that 90 percent of the strokes recorded have occurred in the temperature range of -10° to +10° C, where many of the jet fuels are flammable but where aviation gasoline is overrich. Also, 10 percent of the strokes recorded have been to the wings, which are the principal fuel-storage areas for modern aircraft. Thus, there is a hazard, particularly for jet fuels. Certain protective measures are indicated by the studies to date, such as the use of lightning diverter rods, thickening of the wing skin in areas near the most probable stroke paths, and the use of fuel-tank liners in critical areas.

Robb, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of the Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) Hazard Detection Algorithm Using Helicopter Field Test Data

Small scale terrain hazards, such as rocks, slopes, and craters, can pose significant risk to landing spacecraft and rover or payload deployment. Onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) systems scan and analyze the landing area for these hazards in real time during descent, and divert the spacecraft to the safest touchdown site. The computationally efficient Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) algorithm combined with a flash LIDAR is an HDA system geared towards small robotic spacecraft. Rather than creating and analyzing a digital elevation map (DEM) from potentially many overlapping range images, S4 operates directly on a single flash LIDAR image. Extending prior work that has analyzed S4 performance for Mars landing using extensive simulations, this paper evaluates S4 performance using actual flash LIDAR images of an artificial hazard field acquired during a 2014 helicopter field test in Death Valley, CA. In particular, we describe LIDAR characterization and calibration, creation of ground truth elevation and safety maps, creation of ground truth sensor poses, actual S4 algorithm processing, and performance analysis. The results show that the safety cost images produced by S4 are remarkably close to the ground truth safety map (computed offline by an HDA algorithm developed under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project) at significantly reduced computational cost, confirming S4 as a viable candidate algorithm for onboard spacecraft HDA.

Luna, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solar cosmic ray hazard to interplanetary and earth-orbital space travel

A statistical treatment of the radiation hazards to astronauts due to solar cosmic ray protons is reported to determine shielding requirements for solar proton events. More recent data are incorporated into the present analysis in order to improve the accuracy of the predicted mission fluence and dose. The effects of the finite data sample are discussed. Mission fluence and dose versus shield thickness data are presented for mission lengths up to 3 years during periods of maximum and minimum solar activity; these correspond to various levels of confidence that the predicted hazard will not be exceeded.

Yucker, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Solutions Network Formulation Report. NASA's Potential Contributions using ASTER Data in Marine Hazard Mitigation

The 28-foot storm surge from Hurricane Katrina pushed inland along bays and rivers for a distance of 12 miles in some areas, contributing to the damage or destruction of about half of the fleet of boats in coastal Mississippi. Most of those boats had sought refuge in back bays and along rivers. Some boats were spared damage because the owners chose their mooring site well. Gulf mariners need a spatial analysis tool that provides guidance on the safest places to anchor their boats during future hurricanes. This product would support NOAA s mission to minimize the effects of coastal hazards through awareness, education, and mitigation strategies and could be incorporated in the Coastal Risk Atlas decision support tool.

Fletcher, Rose↗
NASA NTRS2008

Landing Site Dispersion Analysis and Statistical Assessment for the Mars Phoenix Lander

The Mars Phoenix Lander launched on August 4, 2007 and successfully landed on Mars 10 months later on May 25, 2008. Landing ellipse predicts and hazard maps were key in selecting safe surface targets for Phoenix. Hazard maps were based on terrain slopes, geomorphology maps and automated rock counts of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images. The expected landing dispersion which led to the selection of Phoenix's surface target is discussed as well as the actual landing dispersion predicts determined during operations in the weeks, days, and hours before landing. A statistical assessment of these dispersions is performed, comparing the actual landing-safety probabilities to criteria levied by the project. Also discussed are applications for this statistical analysis which were used by the Phoenix project. These include using the statistical analysis used to verify the effectiveness of a pre-planned maneuver menu and calculating the probability of future maneuvers.

Bonfiglio, Eugene P.↗