Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Next-generation neutron detection using a 6 Li glass scintillator composite

Neutron detectors are crucial in fundamental science, nuclear security, safeguards, and civil applications. 3 He-filled gas proportional counters are the gold standard for thermal neutron detection, prized for their efficiency, neutron/gamma discrimination, and stability; however, the scarcity of 3 He has prompted the search for alternatives. Here, we introduce a neutron detector design based on a scintillating composite consisting of 6 Li glass scintillator particles dispersed in an organic matrix. A detector consisting of this scintillating composite, photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for optical detection, and electronics for reading out the PMT signal in both pulse and current modes was prototyped and characterized using various neutron and gamma sources. The prototype achieves a measured intrinsic detection efficiency of 6.70 ± 0.01%, a die-away time of 10.3 ± 0.1 μs, a negligible gamma misidentification probability, and response linearity up to at least 3.7 × 10 6 incident neutrons/s established via a cross-calibration technique. This detector holds the potential to outperform traditional 3 He-gas-based neutron detection systems, offering a viable alternative amidst the ongoing 3 He shortage and promising advancements in neutron detection technology.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗

Scalable, biologically sourced depolymerizable polydienes with intrinsically weakened carbon–carbon bonds

Currently, there are few examples of circularly recyclable polymers with all-carbon backbones, probably owing to the challenge of using selective C–C bond cleavage to efficiently produce monomers in recycling processes. Furthermore, here we demonstrate a series of biologically sourced polymuconate polymers synthesized via simple free-radical polymerization that exhibit intrinsically weakened C–C bonds and controlled chemical recycling to monomers. Modifying the side chains and copolymerization ratios allows a wide range of mechanical property tuning, achieving performances comparable to those of commercial plastics such as polystyrene, polymethyl methacrylate and polybutadiene. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for production at a scale of 100 kilotons per year show that the materials are currently slightly more expensive and environmentally intensive compared with conventional rubbers. However, use of recycled materials via depolymerization can greatly decrease the cost and environmental impacts of polymuconate production (for example, down to US$1.59 per kilogram) to outperform its commercial counterparts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A simulation framework for evaluating electronic order workflows in integrated health records

Electronic health record (EHR) systems are critical to modern healthcare delivery, yet the dynamic workflows that govern electronic order processing remain underexplored. Inefficiencies in these digital pathways can cause delays in care, repetitive workloads, and even patient harm. This study presents a discrete-event simulation framework used to reconstruct and evaluate EHR-based order workflows in a large integrated healthcare system. Using real-world data extracted from the Veterans Health Administration’s Corporate Data Warehouse, the authors mapped order events to standardized state transitions and modeled their progression across different facilities of varying complexity levels. After being calibrated with empirical distributions of transition times and validated against observed time-in-system metrics, the simulation demonstrates close alignment with historical performance. Scenario analyses reveal that resource capacity constraints significantly amplify the impact of electronic order surges, which are reflected in the disproportionate growth in backlogs and processing delays. Adjustments in transition probabilities further increased recirculation and extended workflow paths. Network-based analysis identified Reserved, InProgress, and Completed as structurally critical states that function as hubs within the process network but the transitions in-between also act as major bottlenecks. These results showcased the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in monitoring EHR order processing performance and evaluating consequences of workflow changes on healthcare network resources planning. The proposed simulation framework provides a scalable data-driven tool to support operational decision-making and improve the efficiency of electronic order management in complex healthcare environments.

Engineering↗

Fundamental data for modeling electron-induced processes in plasma remediation of perfluoroalkyl substances

Plasma treatment of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contaminated water is a potentially energy efficient remediation method. In this treatment, an atmospheric pressure plasma interacts with surface-resident PFAS molecules. Developing a reaction mechanism and modeling of plasma–PFAS interactions requires fundamental data for electron–molecule reactions. In this paper, we present results of electron scattering calculations, potential energy landscapes and their implications for plasma modelling of a dielectric barrier discharge in PFAS contaminated gases, a first step towards modelling of plasma–water–PFAS intereactions. It is found that the plasma degradation of PFAS is dominated by dissociative electron attachment with the importance of other contributing processes varying depending on the molecule. All molecules posses a large number of shape resonances – transient negative ion states – from near-threshold up to ionization threshold. These states lie in the region of the most probable electron energies in the plasma (4–5 eV) and consequently are expected to further enhance the fragmentation dynamics in both dissociative attachment and dissociative excitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

[Bmpy] or [Bmim]: which is better for H 2 sensing?

Electrochemical ionic liquid-based H 2 sensors can be divided into five regions based on the molecules’ distance to the electrode. Molecules display different movement features and H 2 shows different probability densities in different regions.

He, Yining [Department of Chemical Engineering and↗

Oxygen vacancy-induced ferroelectric effect in (111) strontium titanate single crystals controls photoelectrochemical water oxidation

Ferroelectric materials, such as tetragonal BaTiO 3 , have a permanent electric polarization that can be controlled with an external electric field, however, a ferroelectric polarization in cubic SrTiO 3 is forbidden by the higher symmetry of the lattice. Here we demonstrate that hydrogen annealed SrTiO 3−x single crystals can be polarized electrically, and that the polarization controls the activity for photoelectrochemical water oxidation, a pathway to solar hydrogen fuel. Specifically, it is observed that the anodic water oxidation photocurrent increases from 0.99 to 2.22 mA cm −2 at 1.23 V RHE (60 mW cm −2 , UV illumination) or decreases to 0.50 mA cm −2 after electric polarization of hydrogen-annealed (111) SrTiO 3−x single crystals in forward or reverse direction. The polarization also modifies the surface photovoltage signal of the material and its flat band potential, based on Mott–Schottky measurements. These observations are attributed to the formation of an electric dipole at the (111) SrTiO 3−x surface, which alters the potential drop across the depletion layer at the solid–liquid junction, and with it the electron transfer barrier. Density functional theory calculations confirm that an electric dipole can result from the movement of oxygen vacancies between the surface or sub-surface layers of SrTiO 3−x . The filling of these surface oxygen vacancies is the probable cause for the observed disappearance of the electric polarization after 24 h storage in air and 48 h in argon. Overall, this work establishes a new surface-based ferroelectric effect in SrTiO 3−x and its use for solar energy conversion during photoelectrochemical water oxidation. Because oxygen vacancy defects are common, similar electric polarization effects are to be expected in other metal oxides.

Assavachin, Samutr [University of California, Davi↗

Illuminating the mechanistic impacts of an Fe-quaterpyridine functionalized crystalline poly(triazine imide) semiconductor for photocatalytic CO 2 reduction

The strategy of incorporating earth-abundant catalytic centers into light-absorbing architectures is desirable from the viewpoint of low cost, low toxicity, and versatility for activating small molecules to produce solar-based fuels. Herein, we show that an Fe-quaterpyridine molecular catalyst can be anchored to a light-absorbing, crystalline, carbon nitride (PTI), to yield a molecular-catalyst/material hybrid, Fe-qpy-PTI, capable of facilitating CO 2 reduction to CO selectively (up to ∼97–98%) in aqueous solution under low-intensity light irradiation. This hybrid material leverages the ability of the Fe-qpy catalyst to bind CO 2 upon a one-electron reduction, as achieved by transfer of excited electrons from the carbon-nitride semiconductor. At a low incident power density of only 50 mW cm −2 , the catalytic activity of the hybrid material was measured across a range of catalyst loadings from 0.1–3.8 wt%, yielding CO rates of up to 596 μmol g −1 h −1 for a 3.8 wt% loading during a 3 h experiment. Over the course of 8 h, the hybrid material attained a CO evolution rate of 608 μmol g −1 h −1 and 305 turnovers for a TOF of ∼38 h −1 and an apparent quantum yield of 2.6%. Higher light intensities provided an initial increase in activity but negatively impacted photocatalytic rates with time, with an AQY of 0.6% at 150 mW cm −2 and 0.4% at 250 mW cm −2 . Transient absorption spectroscopy results showed electron survival probabilities consistent with the trends in observed product rates. Computational modeling was also used to evaluate and understand the mechanistic pathway of the high product selectivity for CO versus H 2 . These results thus help unveil key factors for leveraging the mechanistic understanding of molecular catalysts for CO 2 reduction for pairing with light absorbing semiconductors and establishing optimal conditions to attain maximal rates in aqueous solution.

McGuigan, Scott [Baylor University, Waco, TX (Unit↗

The role of the droplet interface in controlling the multiphase oxidation of thiosulfate by ozone

Predicting reaction kinetics in aqueous microdroplets, including aerosols and cloud droplets, is challenging due to the probability that the underlying reaction mechanism can occur both at the surface and in the interior of the droplet. Additionally, few studies directly measure the surface activities of doubly charged anions, despite their prevalence in the atmosphere. Here, deep-UV second harmonic generation spectroscopy is used to probe surface affinities of the doubly charged anions thiosulfate, sulfate, and sulfite, key species in the thiosulfate ozonation reaction mechanism. Thiosulfate has an appreciable surface affinity with a measured Gibbs free energy of adsorption of -7.3 ± 2.5 kJ mol -1 in neutral solution, while sulfate and sulfite exhibit negligible surface propensity. The Gibbs free energy is combined with data from liquid flat jet ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy to constrain the concentration of thiosulfate at the surface in our model. Stochastic kinetic simulations leveraging these novel measurements show that the primary reaction between thiosulfate and ozone occurs at the interface and in the bulk, with the contribution of the interface decreasing from ~65% at pH 5 to ~45% at pH 13. Additionally, sulfate, the major product of thiosulfate ozonation and an important species in atmospheric processes, can be produced by two different pathways at pH 5, one with a contribution from the interface of >70% and the other occurring predominantly in the bulk (>98%). The observations in this work have implications for mining wastewater remediation, atmospheric chemistry, and understanding other complex reaction mechanisms in multiphase environments. Future interfacial or microdroplet/aerosol chemistry studies should carefully consider the role of both surface and bulk chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Diameter-dependent multiple proton jumps dictate hydronium and hydroxide transport in carbon nanotubes

Nanofluidic channels impose extreme confinement on water, giving rise to unusual transport phenomena of the liquid. However, how the transport of hydroxide and hydronium ions is influenced by such confinement is still not fully understood. This study employs machine learning-accelerated simulations, based on the SCAN density functional, to investigate proton transfer dynamics in CNTs of varying diameters (0.8 nm to 2.8 nm). The extreme confinement of water inside a 0.8 nm CNT not only enhances the probability of multiple consecutive proton jumps, but also reverses the relative diffusion coefficient of hydronium and hydroxide ions in bulk water. In CNTs with diameters larger than 0.8 nm, hydronium diffuses slightly faster than in bulk water, whereas hydroxide diffusion slows because of its localization near CNT walls, hindering multiple proton jumps. This work highlights the significant impact of nanoscale confinement on proton transfer dynamics, with implications for designing nanoscale systems with controlled proton transport.

Chemistry↗

AutoSourceID-Classifier: Star-galaxy classification using a convolutional neural network with spatial information

Aims.Traditional star-galaxy classification techniques often rely on feature estimation from catalogs, a process susceptible to introducing inaccuracies, thereby potentially jeopardizing the classification’s reliability. Certain galaxies, especially those not manifesting as extended sources, can be misclassified when their shape parameters and flux solely drive the inference. We aim to create a robust and accurate classification network for identifying stars and galaxies directly from astronomical images. Methods.The AutoSourceID-Classifier (ASID-C) algorithm developed for this work uses 32x32 pixel single filter band source cutouts generated by the previously developed AutoSourceID-Light (ASID-L) code. By leveraging convolutional neural networks (CNN) and additional information about the source position within the full-field image, ASID-C aims to accurately classify all stars and galaxies within a survey. Subsequently, we employed a modified Platt scaling calibration for the output of the CNN, ensuring that the derived probabilities were effectively calibrated, delivering precise and reliable results. Results.We show that ASID-C, trained on MeerLICHT telescope images and using the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) morphological classification, is a robust classifier and outperforms similar codes such as SourceExtractor. To facilitate a rigorous comparison, we also trained an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model on tabular features extracted by SourceExtractor. While this XGBoost model approaches ASID-C in performance metrics, it does not offer the computational efficiency and reduced error propagation inherent in ASID-C’s direct image-based classification approach. ASID-C excels in low signal-to-noise ratio and crowded scenarios, potentially aiding in transient host identification and advancing deep-sky astronomy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

CIRCLEZ : Reliable photometric redshifts for active galactic nuclei computed solely using photometry from Legacy Survey Imaging for DESI

Photometric redshifts for galaxies hosting an accreting supermassive black hole in their center, known as active galactic nuclei (AGNs), are notoriously challenging. At present, they are most optimally computed via spectral energy distribution (SED) fittings, assuming that deep photometry for many wavelengths is available. However, for AGNs detected from all-sky surveys, the photometry is limited and provided by a range of instruments and studies. This makes the task of homogenizing the data challenging, presenting a dramatic drawback for the millions of AGNs that wide surveys such as SRG/eROSITA are poised to detect. This work aims to compute reliable photometric redshifts for X-ray-detected AGNs using only one dataset that covers a large area: the tenth data release of the Imaging Legacy Survey (LS10) for DESI. LS10 provides deep grizW1-W4 forced photometry within various apertures over the footprint of the eROSITA-DE survey, which avoids issues related to the cross-calibration of surveys. We present the results from CIRCLEZ, a machine-learning algorithm based on a fully connected neural network. CIRCLEZ is built on a training sample of 14 000 X-ray-detected AGNs and utilizes multi-aperture photometry, mapping the light distribution of the sources. The accuracy (σNMAD) and the fraction of outliers (η) reached in a test sample of 2913 AGNs are equal to 0.067 and 11.6%, respectively. The results are comparable to (or even better than) what was previously obtained for the same field, but with much less effort in this instance. We further tested the stability of the results by computing the photometric redshifts for the sources detected in CSC2 and Chandra-COSMOS Legacy, reaching a comparable accuracy as in eFEDS when limiting the magnitude of the counterparts to the depth of LS10. The method can be applied to fainter samples of AGNs using deeper optical data from future surveys (for example, LSST, Euclid), granting LS10-like information on the light distribution beyond the morphological type. Along with this paper, we have released an updated version of the photometric redshifts (including errors and probability distribution functions) for eROSITA/eFEDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Counterpart identification and classification for eRASS1 and characterisation of the active galactic nuclei content

Context. Accurately accounting for the Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) phase in galaxy evolution requires a large, clean AGN sample. This is now possible with SRG/eROSITA, which completed its first all-sky X-ray survey (eRASS1) on June 12, 2020. The public Data Release 1 (DR1, Jan 31, 2024) includes 930,203 sources from the western Galactic hemisphere. Aims. The data enable the selection of a large AGN sample and the discovery of rare sources. However, scientific return depends on accurate characterisation of the X-ray emitters, requiring high-quality multi-wavelength data. This paper presents the identification and classification of optical and infrared counterparts to eRASS1 sources. Methods. Counterparts to eRASS1 X-ray point sources were identified using Gaia DR3, CatWISE2020, and Legacy Survey DR10 (LS10) with the Bayesian NWAY algorithm and trained priors. Sources were classified as Galactic or extragalactic via a machine-learning model combining optical/IR and X-ray properties, trained on a reference sample. For extragalactic LS10 sources, photometric redshifts were computed using CIRCLEZ. Results. Within the LS10 footprint, all 656,614 eROSITA/DR1 sources have at least one possible optical counterpart; ∼570 000 are extragalactic and likely AGN. Half are new detections compared to AllWISE, Gaia, and Quaia AGN catalogues. Gaia and CatWISE2020 counterparts are less reliable, due to the survey’s shallowness and the limited amount of features available to assess the probability of being an X-ray emitter. In the Galactic plane, where the overdensity of stellar sources also increases the chance of associations, using conservative reliability cuts, we identified approximately 18 000 Gaia and 55 000 CatWISE2020 extragalactic sources. Conclusions. We have released three high-quality counterpart catalogues – plus the training and validation sets – as a benchmark for the field. These datasets have many applications, but in particular, they empower researchers to build AGN samples tailored for completeness and purity, accelerating the hunt for the Universe’s most energetic engines.

X-rays: general↗

Delving into the depths of NGC 3783 with XRISM

The 2024 X-ray/UV observation campaign of NGC 3783, led by XRISM, revealed the launch of an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with a radial velocity of 0.19c (57 000 km s −1 ). This event is synchronized with the sharp decay, within less than half a day, of a prominent soft X-ray/UV flare. Accounting for the look-elsewhere effect, the XRISM Resolve data alone indicate a low probability of 2 × 10 −5 that this UFO detection is due to random chance. The UFO features narrow H-like and He-like Fe lines with a velocity dispersion of ∼1000 km s −1 , suggesting that it originates from a dense clump. Beyond this primary detection, there are hints of weaker outflow signatures throughout the rise and fall phases of the soft flare. Their velocities increase from 0.05c to 0.3c over approximately three days, and they may be associated with a larger stream in which the clump is embedded. The radiation pressure is insufficient to drive the acceleration of this rapidly evolving outflow. The observed evolution of the outflow kinematics instead closely resembles that of solar coronal mass ejections, implying magnetic driving and, conceivably, reconnection near the accretion disk as the likely mechanisms behind both the UFO launch and the associated soft flare.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Exploring the connection between compact object mergers and fast X-ray transients

Context. The connection between compact object mergers and some extragalactic fast X-ray transients (FXRTs) has long been hypothesised but never ultimately established. Aims. In this work, we investigate two FXRTs, the LEIA X-ray Transient LXT 240402A and the Einstein Probe EP 250207b, whose precise positions lie close to nearby (z ≲ 0.1) quiescent galaxies with a negligible probability of chance coincidence, identifying them as particularly promising cases of merger-driven explosions in the local Universe. Methods. We used Chandra to derive accurate localisations for both events and secure otherwise ambiguous associations with their optical counterparts. Deep optical and near-infrared observations with VLT, GTC, and LBT were performed to characterise the surrounding environment and search for kilonova emission, the hallmark of neutron star mergers. Complementary early-time X-ray monitoring with Swift and Einstein Probe was used to constrain the non-thermal afterglow. Results. We find that both FXRTs remain compatible with a compact binary merger progenitor, which produced low-mass ejecta and kilonova emission subdominant to the afterglow. However, alternative explanations such as a distant (z ≳ 1) core-collapse supernova cannot be conclusively ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quarkonium transport in weakly and strongly coupled plasmas

We report on progress in the nonperturbative understanding of quarkonium dynamics inside a thermal plasma. The time evolution of small-size quarkonium is governed by two-point correlation functions of chromoelectric fields dressed with an adjoint Wilson line, known in this context as generalized gluon distributions (GGDs). The GGDs have been calculated in both weakly and strongly coupled plasmas by using perturbative and holographic methods. Strikingly, the results of our calculations for a strongly coupled plasma indicate that the quarkonium dissociation and recombination rates vanish in the transport descriptions that assume quarkonium undergoes Markovian dynamics. However, this does not imply that the dynamics is trivial. As a starting point to explore the phenomenological consequences of the result at strong coupling, we show a calculation of the Y(1 S ) formation probability in time-dependent perturbation theory. This is a first step towards the development of a transport formalism that includes non-Markovian effects, which, depending on how close the as of yet undetermined nonperturbative QCD result of the GGDs is to the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM result, could very well dominate over the Markovian ones in quark-gluon plasma produced at RHIC and the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗