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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network interatomic potential-driven analysis of phase stability in Ti–V alloys at the atomistic scale

The evolution of the ω phase in titanium–vanadium (Ti–V) alloys is critical for their mechanical properties, particularly in aerospace and biomedical applications. Here, this study employs a Rapid Artificial Neural Network (RANN) potential to model the ω phase evolution at the atomistic level, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with experimental observations, unlike the Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM), which fails to capture this phase transformation accurately. RANN simulations replicate key phenomena such as the nucleation of α precipitates at ω/β interfaces and accurate lattice orientations, enhancing our understanding of phase stability and transformation kinetics. The findings affirm that RANN potentials can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of complex material behaviors, offering a powerful tool for designing advanced materials with tailored properties such as solute effect in various stacking fault energies. This approach not only bridges the gap between theoretical predictions and empirical data but also sets a new direction for future research in materials science, emphasizing the integration of machine learning techniques in the development and optimization of new alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The electric vehicles-solar photovoltaics Nexus: Driving cross-sectoral adoption of sustainable technologies

Residential and transportation energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics [PVs]) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market shares for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both of these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjointly, without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) these technologies. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences toward these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores interactive EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equation model is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values, and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive bundled adoption of EV-PV systems could accelerate the adoption of both of these sustainable technologies. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to consider transport and building energy-efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

What are mycorrhizal traits?

Traits are inherent properties of organisms, but how are they defined for organismal networks such as mycorrhizal symbioses? Mycorrhizal symbioses are complex and diverse belowground symbioses between plants and fungi that have proved challenging to fit into a unified and coherent trait framework. Here we propose an inclusive mycorrhizal trait framework that classifies traits as morphological, physiological, and phenological features that have functional implications for the symbiosis. We further classify mycorrhizal traits by location – plant, fungus, or the symbiosis – which highlights new questions in trait-based mycorrhizal ecology designed to charge and challenge the scientific community. This new framework is an opportunity for researchers to interrogate their data to identify novel insights and gaps in our understanding of mycorrhizal symbioses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE CHOICE MODELS EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE FUEL TECHNOLOGY PREFERENCES AMONG COMMERCIAL FLEET OWNERS

Agent-based transportation models are critical tool for evaluating energy use, emissions and mobility impacts of transportation. In this context, vehicle ownership models are critical for linking agent activities to their impacts on the transportation system. However, no agent-based freight transportation models to date has been developed that predicts the fuel technology that is preferred by establishments when purchasing a Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) for business purposes. This research addresses this gap by using recently collected survey data to estimate a discrete choice model that can be applied in the agent-based context.

commercial↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid geothermal-wind integration in the US energy grid

Here, we combine US wind generation—a cheap yet intermittent source of electricity—with the latest geothermal resource estimates to understand the technoeconomic possibilities of pairing enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) with existing wind farms to develop a hybrid energy system. Using observed generation data from 583 wind farms, generation gaps are quantified and geographically paired with the latest EGS estimates. Results demonstrate that EGS potential within a 1 km 2 footprint can supplement wind generation at 56% of onshore wind farms. Each wind farm can be supplemented by EGSs when 10% of its surface-occupying footprint is available. The cost of EGSs at wind farms is lowest in the western US and southern Texas border and highest in the central US. While further experiments are warranted, a wind + EGS hybrid system offers an opportunity to increase power output from the same land footprint while maximizing the use of existing electrical infrastructure.

EGS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2022

Small partners, big impacts

Bioactive metabolites mediate interactions between hosts and their microbiomes, often to improve the fitness of the holobionts. However, the mechanistic basis of these interactions and their contributions to fitness are poorly understood owing to their multifaceted nature. Finally, recent studies integrating metabolomics with genomic and functional data are beginning to fill this gap.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commitment to Active Allyship Is Required to Address the Lack of Hispanic and Latinx Representation in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

In 2021, people of Hispanic and Latinx origin made up 6% of the atmospheric and Earth sciences workforce of the United States, yet they represent 20% of the population. Motivated by this disparity in Hispanic and Latinx representation in the atmospheric and Earth science workforce, this manuscript documents the lack of representation through existing limited demographic data. The analysis presents a clear gap in participation by Hispanic and Latinx people in academic settings, with a widening gap through each education and career stage. Several factors and challenges impacting the representation disparity include the lack of funding for and collaboration with Hispanic-serving institutions, limited opportunities due to immigration status, and limited support for international research collaborations. We highlight the need for actionable steps to address the lack of representation and provide targeted recommendations to federal funding agencies, educational institutions, faculty, and potential employers. While we wait for systemic cultural change from our scientific institutions, grassroots initiatives like those proudly led by the AMS Committee for Hispanic and Latinx Advancement will emerge to address the needs of the Hispanic and Latinx scientific and broader community. We briefly highlight some of those achievements. Lasting cultural change can only happen if our leaders are active allies in the creation of a more diverse, equitable, and inclusive future. Alongside our active allies we will continue to champion for change in our weather, water, and climate enterprise.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCALE Lattice Physics Code Assessments of Accident Tolerant Fuel

This report highlights accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) code assessment activities performed under Project NRCHQ- 60-17-T-0017, Lattice Physics Enhancements and Assessment. ATF covers a broad range of advanced fuel and clad designs for light water reactors (LWRs) to enhance performance under several accident conditions. Several ATF concepts are anticipated to be deployed as lead test rods (LTRs) or lead test assemblies (LTAs) within the next five years. The purpose of this work is to assess the predictive capabilities of NRC neutronics codes that underpin various licensing calculations. ATF designs use different fuel and clad materials compared to standard UO 2 fuel and zirconium-alloy claddings (hereafter UO 2 -Zry). These new materials and geometrical designs need to be assessed to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on quantities of interest (QOIs) in licensing calculations and the impact of modeling approximations which may be valid for UO 2 -Zry but not for ATF. This report outlines a systematic approach for ATF neutronics code assessment which includes sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of nuclear data, identification of experimental benchmark and gaps for code validation, investigation of modeling approximations, and code-to-code comparisons of calculated QOIs against high-fidelity reference continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) calculations. This report focuses on the assessment of the SCALE/Polaris lattice physics code for reactor safety analysis. Polaris lattice physics calculations generate few group (FG) cross sections for PARCS full-core calculations. (Full-core analysis, spent fuel analysis, and severe accident analysis will be performed in future work.) The selected ATF concepts for this report include Cr 2 O 3 and Al 2 O 3 -Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, U 3 Si 2 fuel, FeCrAl cladding, SiC cladding, and Cr-coated cladding.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based On Sludge Batch 10 Projections from December 2021, February 2022 and August 2022

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, and 26F, Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 (8B 2 O 3 -8Li 2 O-5Na 2 O-79SiO 2 , in weight percent) was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Due to the lower processing rate of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9), the heel in Tank 40 is anticipated to be greater than 40 inches at the projected start of SB10 processing to meet the upcoming Accelerated Basin Deinventory addition dates in Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 11. In December 2021 and February 2022, Savannah River Remediation System Planning provided updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projections based on heels of 74 inches, 84 inches, 94 inches and 103.4 inches. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In August 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projection with a 76 inch-heel representing Decant Y2 and 60 kilogallons of bearing water inleakage that is anticipated during the Tank 51 to Tank 40 transfer. The objectives of this task were to: • Determine the impact on the operating windows for SO and coupled processing • Determine whether any composition gaps exist between the already completed SB10 variability study and the reprojected SB10 glass composition region • Compare the SB10 reprojected glass composition region to the DWPF PCCS model development and validation ranges to ensure that compositional gaps do not exist between the data sets. This report documents the results of these evaluations. Calculation-based frit assessments were performed using the DWPF PCCS glass property models and their associated MAR constraints. Evaluated parameters for coupled processing included the following transfer volumes per Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank batch: 5700 gallons of Tank 40 sludge, 2400-4500 gallons of the SWPF monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids stream, and 15,000 gallons of strip effluent. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 473 remains viable for SB10 processing. A target waste loading (WL) of 36% is possible for SO operation and single strike (0.4 g/L MST) coupled processing up to 600 mg/L of SB9 insoluble sludge solids at a nominal transfer volume of ~2800 gallons. Increasing the single strike transfer volume to 4500 gallons may reduce the maximum WL below 40%. Operating windows are 12 percentage points for SO processing and 14-16 percentage points for coupled processing. Frit 625 allows for a target WL of 36% and is acceptable for use during the SB9 to SB10 transition to deplete remaining inventory as needed. Operating windows are 8 percentage points for SO processing and 12-14 percentage points for coupled processing. Predictive PCCS evaluations performed at DWPF will provide insight into batch-specific acceptability at desired WLs for compositions having expected oxide ratios during processing versus the extreme vertices (corner points) evaluated in this study. The reprojected SB10 glass composition region generally overlaps the previously evaluated SB10 variability study composition region. Thus, the minor composition shift of these updated SB10 projections indicates that no additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment benchmark glass and predictability using the current PCCS models for durability. Based on a comparison of the PCCS model development and validation data to the reprojected SB10 glass composition region, the viscosity and liquidus temperature models will reliably predict SB10 compositions. No additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate predictability of these models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

An effective QWBA/UHPLC-MS/tissue punch approach: solving a pharmacokinetic issue via quantitative Met-ID

Methods to provide absolute quantitation of the administered drug and corresponding metabolites in tissue in a spatially resolved manner is a challenging but much needed necessity in pharmaceutical research. Quantitative whole-body autoradiography (QWBA) after a single-dose intravenous (3 mg/kg) and extravascular (30 mg/kg) administrations of an in vitro metabolically stable test compound (structure not reported here) indicated quick tissue distribution and excretion. Good bioavailability and short in vivo half-lives were determined formerly for the same test compound. For closing gaps in the understanding of pharmacokinetic data and in vitro results, radioactive hot spots on whole-body tissue sections had been profiled. Punches from selected tissue regions containing high radioactivity in the tissue sections previously analyzed by QWBA were extracted by a highly organic solvent and analyzed without any consecutive sample preparation step, applying ultra high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS) and off-line radioanalysis to maximize signal levels for metabolite identification and profiling. The analysis revealed that the test compound was metabolized intensively by phase I reactions in vivo and the metabolites formed were excreted in bile and in urine. The predominant metabolites showed abundant signal intensities both by MS and by radioanalysis but the MS signal intensities generally underestimated the real abundances of metabolites relative to the unchanged drug. In this work we illustrate that maximizing the sensitivity of tissue punch radioanalysis and the combination with UHPLC-MS leads to a better insight of pharmacokinetic processes by providing quantitative data with high molecular selectivity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Growth and Stability of Stratiform Carrollite (CuCo2S4) in the Tenke-Fungurume Ore District, Central African Copperbelt

Abstract Carrollite (CuCo2S4) is the main ore mineral of the critical battery metal cobalt, yet, surprisingly, detailed characterization of its thermodynamic properties and of its trace element contents remain sparse in the scientific literature. To fill these knowledge gaps, we generated the first thermodynamic data set for carrollite using well-characterized samples obtained from the stratiform sulfide mineralization style at Fungurume 88 deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Detailed mineralogical investigation of these same samples suggests that carrollite has limited ability to incorporate other ‘sweetener’ elements (except Cu and Ni) by substitution mechanisms. Modeling using CHNOSZ 2.0.0. software and an integrated Cu-Co-S-O thermodynamic data set provides insights into the stability of carrollite relative to other Co-bearing minerals under physicochemical conditions relevant to the Central African Copperbelt. Further exploration of these models indicates that dropping redox potential in the mineralizing system is insufficient to explain the mineral-scale and deposit-scale zonation patterns commonly observed in Cu-Co deposits of the Central African Copperbelt. Instead, factors such as increasing pH, decreasing T, decreasing sulfur activity, or some combination of changing physicochemical parameters may need to be invoked to explain these zonation trends. At the Fungurume 88 deposit, the absence of linnaeite (Co3S4) suggests that ore precipitation occurred at temperatures cooler than 211 °C. From our pH-logfO2 diagrams, and relative to higher temperatures, such a lower T regime is marked by a greater degree of offset between the modeled Cu and Co solubility contours, thus facilitating a more differentiated and zoned distribution of these two metals at the deposit scale. Our models are offered to the geoscience community as exceptionally useful tools for modeling and visualizing the Cu-Co-S-O systematics and may be applied to a variety of geological and geometallurgical questions in the Central African Copperbelt and other deposits elsewhere.

Mineralogy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Is the Adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) Interdependent or Independent? An Integrated EVs-PVs Modeling Framework

Transportation and residential energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics or PVs) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market share for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjoint without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) EVs and PVs. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences towards these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equations model (SEM) is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive 'bundled' adoption of EVs and PVs could accelerate the adoption of both these sustainable technologies. The results highlights the need to consider transport and building energy efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gap Flows Along the Columbia River Observed During the WFIP2 Field Campaign

Data collected in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin Area during the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) was used to study gap flow events in the region. In particular, the relationship between 200 m zonal wind speed and the zonal mesoscale pressure gradient at Troutdale (West of the gorge), Wasco (east of the gorge), and Boardman (farther east of the gorge) sites was examined. An objective criterion was used to identify 169 (Troutdale), 161 (Wasco), and 113 (Boardman) gap flow days that had weak synoptic forcing. The 200 m zonal wind speed exhibited a linear relationship with the zonal pressure gradient at Wasco during both easterly and westerly gap flow days at daily timescales. Such a relationship was only observed during easterly gap flow days at Troutdale and was not observed at Boardman. The zonal wind speed exhibited a diurnal cycle at Wasco and Boardman, with greater changes in the nighttime winds than the daytime winds due to changes in pressure gradient. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) between the observed pressure gradient at Wasco and that simulated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in 3 km (HRRR-3km) and 750 m (HRRR-750m) horizontal resolution were 3.14 hPa and 0.57 hPa, respectively. However, the RMSDs for the 200 m zonal wind speed were 1.40 m s -1 for HRRR-3km and 1.20 m s -1 for HRRR- 750m. Improvement in simulating the zonal pressure gradient accompanied by negligible changes in simulating zonal wind speed due to higher horizontal resolution points to a complex interplay between different components of the model physics when simulating the meteorology. The HRRR-750m resolution model accurately mimicked the observed covariability (phase diagram) between the zonal pressure gradient and the 200 m zonal wind speed during the nighttime, but not during the daytime, suggesting model errors might be related to the representation of boundary layer processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗