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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Vertical Federated Machine Learning Against Adversarial Threats on Wide-Area Control System: Preprint

Federated machine learning (FL) is gaining significant popularity to develop cybersecurity solutions in power grids because of its advanced capability to support decentralized data handing at local devices, its privacy preservation, and its low-bandwidth requirement. However, the evolving adversarial machine learning (AML) threats raise significant concerns for the cybersecurity of FL architectures. The FL-based split neural network (SplitNN) achieves high performance through the decentralized training of local neural network models while preserving data privacy across multiple entities. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating the performance of a vertical FLbased anomaly detector against different types of AML attacks, including denial-of-service attacks, adversarial data injection attacks, and replay attacks on the trained local models deployed in the grid network. For a case study, we consider the modified IEEE 13-bus system, and we develop SplitNN-based binary and multiclass classification models to detect, locate, and identify different types of data integrity attacks on the volt-watt control with two pooling layers: maximum pooling and AvgPool. Our experimental results, computed through performance metrics, reveal that the severity of these AML attacks varies with the integrated pooling mechanism, the type of classification model, and the nature of the cyberattack. Further, the AML attacks negatively impacted the prediction time per sample for the pretrained SplitNN during the online testing.

adversarial threats↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing South American Water and Climate Science Through Multi-Decadal Convection-Permitting Modeling

The South America Affinity Group (SAAG) was established in early 2019 by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Water Systems Program as a community effort focused on improving hydroclimate science over South America. SAAG supports large research efforts such as the ANDEX Regional Hydroclimate Program as well as individual research groups. The group started with a dozen members and quickly grew to over 100 participants from more than ten countries. For the past four years, the SAAG has been meeting online every two weeks and has organized sessions at international conferences such as the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting and the Convection-Permitting Climate Workshop. At the core of the SAAG effort are two multi-decadal convection permitting (CP) model simulations with 4-km grid spacing for historical and future climates over the South American continent. Additionally, a major observational data collection effort has been undertaken, including in-situ station data from South American meteorological and water services, gridded products, satellite-based observations, and field campaign data. In conclusion, this article discusses the research needs and scientific goals that drive this community of scientists with diverse backgrounds and interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Investigation of Phase Fault Classification in Power Grid Signals: A Case Study for Support Vector Machines, Decision Tree and Random Forest

In monitoring the power grid, an ability to differentiate between fault types is essential to ensuring electrical safety. Accordingly, this study introduces a fault detection and classification method by considering different machine learning (ML) and feature extraction (FE) methods combinations. Specifically, the proposed method is established in two classification layers; the first layer determines the fault, and the second layer distinguishes the type of fault. Based on the proposed system model, this study seeks to determine the influential data attributes in a power grid signal using FE methods, including fast Fourier transform, power spectral density (PSD), auto-correlation, and wavelet transform (WT). A cross-comparison of the effectiveness of the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and Random Forest (RF) is also performed to accomplish the classification layers of the proposed method. The designed algorithm is analyzed under the various combinations of FE and ML methods, and outcomes are presented by considering the trade-off between computational complexity and prediction accuracy. The results reveal that the RF-based ML algorithm shows the most accurate classification performance with PSD, and the most time-saving of the models is the DT WT. Also, SVM emerges superior on a subsequent test of the simulated models on real-world signals.

Galbraith, Kelli↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution of blackouts in the power grid and the Motter and Lai model

Carreras, Dobson, and colleagues have studied empirical data on the sizes of the blackouts in real grids and modeled them with computer simulations using the direct current approximation. They have found that the resulting blackout sizes are distributed as a power law and suggested that this is because the grids are driven to the self-organized critical state. In contrast, more recent studies found that the distribution of cascades is bimodal resulting in either a very small blackout or a very large blackout, engulfing a finite fraction of the system. Here we reconcile the two approaches and investigate how the distribution of the blackouts changes with model parameters, including the tolerance criteria and the dynamic rules of failure of the overloaded lines during the cascade. Finally, we study the same problem for the Motter and Lai model and find similar results, suggesting that the physical laws of flow on the network are not as important as network topology, overload conditions, and dynamic rules of failure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-Power Co-Simulation for End-to-End Synchrophasor Network Analysis and Applications

The resiliency, reliability and security of the next generation cyber-power smart grid depend upon efficiently leveraging advanced communication and computing technologies. Also, developing real-time data-driven applications is critical to enable wide-area monitoring and control of the cyber-power grid given high-resolution data from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). North American Synchrophasor Initiative Network (NASPlnet) provides guidance for PMU data exchanges. With the advancement in networking and grid operation, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of different data flow architectures suggested by NASPInet and analyze the impact on applications. Therefore, we need a cyber-power co-simulation framework that supports very large-scale co-simulation capable of running in parallel, high-performance computing platforms and capturing real-life network behavior. This work presents an end-to-end automated and user-driven cyber-power co-simulation using NS3 to model communication networks, GridPACK to model the power grid, and HELICS as a co-simulation engine. Comparative analysis of latency in synchrophasor networks and a performance evaluation of a power system stabilizer application utilizing PMU data in an IEEE 39 bus test system is presented using this cosimulation testbed.

Mustafa, Hussain M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

SUGAR: An improved empirical model of Type Ia supernovae based on spectral features

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are widely used to measure the expansion of the Universe. Improving distance measurements of SNe Ia is one technique to better constrain the acceleration of expansion and determine its physical nature. This document develops a new SNe Ia spectral energy distribution (SED) model, called the SUpernova Generator And Reconstructor (SUGAR), which improves the spectral description of SNe Ia, and consequently could improve the distance measurements. This model was constructed from SNe Ia spectral properties and spectrophotometric data from the Nearby Supernova Factory collaboration. In a first step, a principal component analysis-like method was used on spectral features measured at maximum light, which allowed us to extract the intrinsic properties of SNe Ia. Next, the intrinsic properties were used to extract the average extinction curve. Third, an interpolation using Gaussian processes facilitated using data taken at different epochs during the lifetime of an SN Ia and then projecting the data on a fixed time grid. Finally, the three steps were combined to build the SED model as a function of time and wavelength. This is the SUGAR model. Results. The main advancement in SUGAR is the addition of two additional parameters to characterize SNe Ia variability. The first is tied to the properties of SNe Ia ejecta velocity and the second correlates with their calcium lines. The addition of these parameters, as well as the high quality of the Nearby Supernova Factory data, makes SUGAR an accurate and efficient model for describing the spectra of normal SNe Ia as they brighten and fade. The performance of this model makes it an excellent SED model for experiments like the Zwicky Transient Facility, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, or the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning model to detect various synchrophasor data anomalies

High-density synchrophasors provide valuable information for power grid situational awareness, operation and control. Unfortunately, due to factors including communication instability and hardware failure, their data quality can be greatly deteriorated by anomalies. Since the anomalies can impact the performance of the synchrophasor applications, it is of paramount significance to propose a model to detect anomalies in synchrophasor. In this study, a convolutional neural network model is established to detect and classify the anomalies in the synchrophasor measurements. Additionally, four types of anomalies observed in actual synchrophasors including erroneous patterns, random spikes, missing points and high-frequency interferences are considered in this study. The proposed model is extensively evaluated via field-collected measurements from the synchrophasor network in Jiangsu grid, China. The superior performance of the proposed model indicates the great potential of using deep learning for the detection of abnormal synchrophasor measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Operator Complexity of Galerkin Coarse-grid Operators with Machine Learning

Here, we propose a data-driven and machine-learning-based approach to compute non-Galerkin coarse-grid operators in multigrid (MG) methods, addressing the well-known issue of increasing operator complexity. Guided by the MG theory on spectrally equivalent coarse-grid operators, we have developed novel machine learning algorithms that utilize neural networks combined with smooth test vectors from multigrid eigenvalue problems. The proposed method demonstrates promise in reducing the complexity of coarse-grid operators while maintaining overall MG convergence for solving parametric partial differential equation problems. Numerical experiments on anisotropic rotated Laplacian and linear elasticity problems are provided to showcase the performance and comparison with existing methods for computing non-Galerkin coarse-grid operators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven PMU Noise Emulation Framework using Gradient-Penalty-Based Wasserstein GAN

Availability of phasor measurement unit (PMUs) data has led to research on data-driven algorithms for event monitoring, control and ensuring stability of the grid. Unavailability of infrequent critical event field PMU data with component failures is driving the need to generate realistic synthetic PMU data for research. The synthetic data from power system simulation software often neglect noise profiles of received phasors, thus creating some discrepancies between real PMU data and synthetic ones. To address this issue, this work presents an initial study on the noise characteristics of PMUs, as well as presenting models for recreating their unique noise signatures. The proposed method, utilizing the Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP) architecture, provides an excellent benchmark for matching the noise distribution. One can use a well-learned GAN model to draw noise signatures from a distribution that seemingly mirrors the real PMU noise distribution, while also being able to be detached from the PMU data once the training is done. Based on the observed results and employed data-driven methodology, it is expected that the proposed methods can be adapted to replicate the behavior of other sensors, providing research and other applications with a tool for data synthesis and sensor characterization.

PMU↗